Tag: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: Alpha

Julia Ducournau’s body horror tale Titane took Cannes by storm in 2021, emerging with the Palme d’Or. The French selected it as their horse for International Feature Film at the Oscars, but it surprised prognosticators by not even making the shortlist of contenders.

The auteur is back at the festival with Alpha, returning her to Titane‘s genre with a cast including Tahar Rahim, Golshifeth Farahani, Mélissa Boros, Emma Mackey, Finnegan Oldfield, and Louai El Amrousy.

Reaction from the Riviera is far more varied than Ducournau’s previous Palme taker. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 56% with Metacritic at 47. That’s compared to the respective 90/75 scores of Titane. It is probably a safe assumption that France will not submit this as their entry for IFF and awards chatter for Alpha will be muted. Distributor Neon, it should be said, has more viable hopefuls including the heralded Sentimental Value. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sentimental Value

Distributor Neon has shined brightly at the Cannes Film Festival by releasing the previous five Palme d’Or recipients: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. Only Titane missed a Best Picture nod from the Academy. Parasite and Anora won. That’s one of the reasons Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is considered to be a serious contender for the top prize in France. Another is because it’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2021 effort The Worst Person in the World which reunites him with star Renate Reinsve. The supporting cast includes Stellan Skarsgård, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Elle Fanning, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Cory Michael Smith.

Early festival reaction is effusive and points to Value indeed being a major Palme threat. Neon could guide this to numerous Oscar nods including Picture, Director, Reinsve in Actress, Skasrgård in Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay. Then there’s Supporting Actress and according to reviews, Neon may have a decision to make as Lilleass and Fanning are both being praised. The latter would be a higher profile campaign, but let’s see how it plays out.

Bottom line: there is no doubt that Sentimental has quickly established itself a potential force at Cannes and beyond. Expect to hear a lot about it this awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Lilo & Stitch

I have talked extensively on the blog about how live-action remakes of Disney pics have received a decent amount of nominations. Titles such as Alice in Wonderland, Cinderella, The Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Cruella lend themselves to races like Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Even this year’s critical and box office misfire Snow White could land a mention or two.

So where does Lilo & Stitch fit into the equation? Out this weekend, it live-action updates the 2002 original which scored a Best Animated Feature nod. Dean Fleischer Camp directs a cast including Maia Keoloha, Chris Sanders, Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Zach Galifianakis, Billy Magnussen, Courtney B. Vance, Hannah Waddingham, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.

Critical reaction is fair with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 55 Metacritic. This certainly won’t be the first Mouse House feature in this sub genre to land top-of-the-line attention. It also doesn’t correlate well to the tech races mentioned above. Chances are this will receive one less nomination than its source material. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Eleanor the Great

At age 95, June Squibb was at the Cannes Film Festival today as her starring vehicle Eleanor the Great debuted. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of Scarlett Johansson with a supporting cast including Chiwetel Ejiofor, Jessica Hecht, Erin Kellyman, and Rita Zohar.

It marks the second year in a row that Squibb is considered a factor in the awards conversation. Last year’s Thelma garnered impressive reviews. They ultimately did not translate into nominations for its star who was up for Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska.

As we await word of stateside distribution, Eleanor had a mixed reaction in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64% though Squibb is being heralded. She’ll need a strong campaign that exceeds Thelma‘s in what looks like a crowded Actress field. Her chances could be stronger at the Globes where the distributor will be faced with a choice of whether to slot her in Drama or Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Highest 2 Lowest

Spike Lee’s crime thriller Highest 2 Lowest has premiered at Cannes prior to A24’s theatrical release in August and Apple TV streaming bow in September. Updating Akira Kurosawa’s High and Low from 1963, Denzel Washington plays a music mogul caught up in a ransom plot. Costars include Ilfenesh Hadera, Jeffrey Wright, ASAP Rocky, and Ice Spice.

Critics are certainly higher than lower for the French unveiling. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94% with Metacritic at 77. According to reviews, it’s a successful genre exercise. That means, from an awards perspective, it might be a non-player like Spike and Denzel’s previous collaboration Inside Man from 2006 (this marks the fifth time they’ve teamed up).

However, I wouldn’t completely discount Denzel’s chances in Best Actor. If he could make the cut for 2017’s Roman J. Israel, Esq., he could do the same here and nab his 10th overall nom. 2017 was arguably a weak year in that category and we don’t know how the competition this time around will shake out. Mr. Washington likely came close to his 10th mention in supporting last year for Gladiator II. He might be in the arena once again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Secret Agent

I’m Still Here from Walter Salles became the first Brazilian production to take home Best International Feature Film at the 97th Academy Awards. The previous nominee before that was back in 1998 with Central Station. The nation may not have to wait long for its next at bat courtesy of The Secret Agent. The 1970s set political thriller is directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho and stars Wagner Moura Udo Kier, Gabriel Leone, and Maria Fernanda Cândido.

The Cannes premiere has garnered impressive reviews with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 86 Metacritic. Assuming Brazil submits this as their contender in IFF (and why wouldn’t they?), a spot in the eventual quintet appears likely.

Agent nods could stop there. However, with the right campaign, Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay (from its filmmaker), and even Moura’s performance in lead Actor could be on the table. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Phoenician Scheme

Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.

We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.

Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Chronology of Water

Premiering her directorial debut at Cannes, Kristen Stewart’s The Chronology of Water is making some waves across the pond. Based on a memoir by Lidia Yuknavitch, the romance casts Imogen Poots as the source material’s author with a supporting cast including Thora Birch, Earl Cave, Kim Gordon, and Jim Belushi (!).

A Best Actress nominee for 2021’s Spencer, Stewart is mostly being lauded for her initial inaugural behind the camera effort. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 74. Stateside distribution is in flux, but a deal will likely be secured in France. Poots in particular is drawing a lot of attention though I wonder if she could fit it into what looks (on paper) like a crowded lead Actress field. That might depend on whether a spirited campaign is waged. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nouvelle Vague

Could France’s selection for International Feature come from Texas’s Richard Linklater? Judging from reaction at Cannes, that’s a distinct possibility with Nouvelle Vague. The period piece recounts the filming of the landmark French New Wave pic Breathless with Guillaume Marbeck as director Jean-Luc Godard and Zoey Deutch as star Jean Seberg.

It’s no surprise that viewers in Cannes are appreciating Nouvelle as it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. How it translates outside of its native country remains to be seen. The French have gotten 8 of their contenders for IFF nominated in the 21st century including last year’s Emilia Pérez. You have to go back to 1992 and Indochine for their previous winner.

If this were their pick in the international race, there could be enough support to make the quintet. I’m not sure if branches out anywhere beyond that despite praise for its two leads. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Die, My Love

In a six year period from 2010-2016, Jennifer Lawrence received 4 Oscar nominations. There was a Best Actress victory for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook in addition to nods in lead for 2010’s Winter’s Bone and 2015’s Joy and Supporting Actress for 2013’s American Hustle. It’s now been a decade since she was in the awards mix, but Die, My Love could change that. Based on a 2017 novel by Ariana Harwicz, Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin, You Were Never Really Here) helms her first feature in seven years. Lawrence headlines the psychological thriller as a mother suffering from postpartum depression. Robert Pattinson, LaKeith Stanfield, Sissy Spacek, and Nick Nolte costar.

One of the most anticipated Cannes debuts (the stateside drop date is TBD), Die has lived up to expectations of some critics and festival goers. The RT rating is 90% though some reviews and social media feedback suggests this could be tough to audiences to digest. Lawrence’s work, however, might not be ignored. If she becomes a surefire nominee in Actress, Die’s most ardent admirers could propel this to Picture and Director (the sound work is being singled out as well). At the least, its journey is worth monitoring as a fall premiere is likely on the horizon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…