Tag: Oscar Predictions

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.

Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)

23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)

24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)

13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ella McKay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)

3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timestamp

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Frankenstein

A House of Dynamite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Mother Mary

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family

3 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: My Mother’s Wedding

My Mother’s Wedding, known as North Star at the time, premiered at the Toronto Film Festival all the way back in September 2023. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of actress Kristin Scott Thomas and reunites her with The Horse Whisperer costar Scarlett Johansson. The supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Emily Beecham, Freida Pinto, Thibault de Montalembert, and Scott Thomas herself.

Distributor Vertical may finally be putting Wedding out, but it’s doing so under the radar considering the talent involved. Reviews may explain why with a lowly 36% Rotten Tomatoes. Many movies begin their awards journeys at Toronto and other fall festivals. The opposite seemed to happen in this case as Wedding limps towards its release date. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Freakier Friday

Sometimes my Oscar Predictions write-ups are actually Golden Globe Predictions and that would apply to Freakier Friday. Out Friday, this is the sequel to the 2003’s Freaky Friday which itself was a remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy that was actually based on a 1972 book. Got all that? Nisha Ganatra directs with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan back headlining. Costars include Mark Harmon, Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, Manny Jacinto, Chad Michael Murray, and Rosalind Chao.

No, Freakier Friday won’t contend for the Academy’s attention. However, the Friday features have a history with the Globes. In Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, both Jodie Foster and Barbara Harris were nominated for the ’76 version (they lost to Barbra Streisand for A Star Is Born). Bonus fun fact: Harris was a double nominee in that category as she was also up for Alfred Hitchcock’s final film Family Plot. In 2003, Jamie Lee Curtis was a hopeful in the same race for the remake and fell short to Diane Keaton for Something’s Gotta Give.

Early reviews for Freakier are pretty decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. That’s lower than Curtis/Lohan’s tale from 22 years ago. If competition is light, it’s not impossible that Curtis could find herself in the Globes mix again. Her chances are certainly less than they were in the earlier part of the century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Weapons

In 2022, Zach Cregger impressed critics and horror fans alike with Barbarian. He seems to have repeated that success with Weapons, out Friday. Focused on a mystery surrounding 17 missing children, Josh Brolin and Julia Garner star. The supporting cast includes Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.

With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 Metacritic (the latter score right in line with Barbarian), Weapons aims to be an August sleeper hit. This is a genre that struggles to generate awards attention. That should hold true here, though I’ll note several reviewers are praising Cregger’s script. Original Screenplay, however, is likely to be too crowded for Weapons to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Souleymane’s Story

The immigration drama Souleyman’s Story premiered at Cannes all the way back in May 2024, but the French release is getting a limited U.S. release this weekend. From director Boris Lojkine, Abou Sangaré drew raves as the title character with Nina Meurisse providing support in a César (French equivalent to Oscars) winning Supporting Actress performance.

In the Un Certain Regard portion at Cannes, Story picked up honors for Sangaré’s performance and an overall jury prize. With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 81 Metacritic, this could’ve been a solid French choice for International Feature Film submission at the Academy Awards. Last year, they understandably went with Emilia Pérez. Controversial comments by lead Karla Sofia Gascón likely sunk its chances at a victory. Frankly I’m not sure if the French could make it their horse in 2025 since they released it last October. Odds are they’ll go with Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which played Cannes this year).

Bottom line: while Story drew its share of kudos and European fest love, it probably missed its window from the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: She Rides Shotgun

Taron Egerton headlines the dark crime thriller She Rides Shotgun from director Nick Rowland, out in limited release this weekend. The supporting cast includes Rob Yang, John Carroll Lynch, Odessa A’Zion, and David Lyons in the adaptation of a 2017 novel by Jordan Harper.

Yet it’s 11-year-old Ana Sophia Heger that is drawing the attention of numerous critics who put the pic at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and 73 on Metacritic. Shotgun won’t be an Oscar player. If distributor Lionsgate attempts to campaign Heger for Best Young Actor/Actress at the Critics Choice Awards , she could sneak in there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Bad Guys 2

The Bad Guys 2 looks to steal lots of box office loot when it debuts this weekend. Following up on 2022’s heist comedy from DreamWorks Animation, Pierre Perifel returns to direct the adaptation of Aaron Blabey’s kids book series. Contributing voices include Sam Rockwell, Marc Maron, Craig Robinson, Anthony Ramos, Awkwafina, Zazie Beetz, Danielle Brooks, Natasha Lyonne, Maria Bakalova, Alex Borstein, Richard Ayoade, and Lilly Singh.

This franchise has drawn mostly appreciative notices from critics. The 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 64 Metacritic are right in line with the original’s scores. Yet that wasn’t enough for these characters to make off with an Animated Feature Academy Award nomination three years ago. I’m skeptical the sequel would either and I didn’t have it listed in my top ten possibilities in my updated predictions last weekend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 27th Edition

Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.

There are changes to discuss:

  1. In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
  2. In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
  3. In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
  4. A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)

16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)

17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)

18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)

21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)

22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)

13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Alabama Solution

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mother Mary

“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein

6 Nominations

After the Hunt

5 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: Come See Me in the Good Light

Come See Me in the Good Light premiered at Sundance back in January with Apple TV picking up distribution rights in the spring (a release date is yet TBD). Directed by Ryan White (best known for Good Night Oppy), Light focuses on the relationship between poets Andrea Gibson and Megan Falley after the former’s terminal cancer diagnosis. Gibson was in Park City for the unveiling of the documentary, but passed away two weeks ago.

Critical reaction has yielded 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Sara Beirelles is an executive producer and she sings the track “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”. It is cowritten by Brandi Carlile (another exec producer). Tig Notaro is another well-known artist on the production team. I would anticipate Apple and the well-known contributors to mount campaigns in Documentary Feature and Original Song. The amount of exposure this receives should determine its success in both categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Oh, Hi!

Theaters are greeting Oh, Hi! in limited fashion this weekend after its premiere at Sundance in January. The dark rom com is directed by Sophie Brooks who also co-scripts with lead Molly Gordon. The supporting cast includes Logan Lerman, Geraldine Viswanathan, John Reynolds, David Cross, and Polly Draper.

Park City reaction was mixed and that has carried over to the general critical mass. Rotten Tomatoes is at 63% with Metacritic at 62. Two years ago, Gordon’s co-direction and cowriting of Theater Camp received better notices and nabbed some Independent Spirit Award noms. Don’t expect the same for this from any awards show. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…