Basing his directorial debut on his own experiences, Elegance Bratton has premiered The Inspection at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 18th domestic release. The A24 title features Jeremy Pope as a Marine at boot camp whose homosexuality is revealed. Costars include Raul Castillo, McCaul Lombardi, Bokeem Woodbine, and Gabrielle Union.
Reviews out of Canada are looking good for the most part and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 87%. Yet I’m doubtful this could play in Best Picture or for Bratton’s original screenplay. On the other hand, many critics are calling this a star making performance from Pope. He’s a recent Emmy nominee for the Netflix miniseries Hollywood (he’s also received Tony and Grammy nods for his stage work).
The studio will need to really push Pope for any hope of making the final five. Some of the those slots – Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Hugh Jackman (The Son) – may already be spoken for. It remains The Inspection‘s most realistic hope. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The critics certainly don’t have their knives out for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. This is the eagerly awaited follow-up to Rian Johnson’s 2019 comedic murder mystery which grossed over $300 million worldwide and gave Daniel Craig another franchise. Johnson and Craig are back with a new supporting cast that includes Edward Norton, Janelle Monae, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Jessicas Henwick, Madelyn Cline, Kate Hudson, and Dave Bautista.
Slated for select cinemas in November before a December 23rd Netflix bow, Onion has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with reviews saying it’s quite appealing. Some even claim it improves on the original. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.
Three years ago, Knives had a sliver of hope to nab a Best Picture nomination, but it never materialized. An Original Screenplay mention was the reward for its success. This time around, it would contend in Adapted Screenplay since it’s based on existing IP. That could happen though let’s see how competitive that race is over the remainder of the year. I suspect if we see a sequel nominated for Best Picture in 2022, it’ll be Top Gun: Maverick and not this… and we still don’t know how solid Avatar: The Way of Water is. As for performances, Monae is being singled out in several write-ups as the MVP. However, Supporting Actress is already starting to looked stacked.
Where Onion could sizzle is at the Golden Globes with a Musical/Comedy Best Motion Picture nod and Best Actor in that category for Craig. That occurred in 2019 and could happen again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For several weeks, I have had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans listed at the top in my predictions for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress (Michelle Williams). Prior to its November 11th limited release and Thanksgiving holiday domestic expansion, the coming-of-age drama has screened in Toronto. That’s a first for the most famous director in the world and festival goers are celebrating what they’re seeing in his autobiographical tale.
Reviews are strong with a current 86% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Awards voters have always been fans of pictures centered on its industry and The Fabelmans is said to be a loving look back at Spielberg’s formative years. There’s little doubt that this has already done enough to become his 14th feature to nab a Best Picture nod (Schindler’s List remains the sole winner). This should also mark his 8th mention in Director (he’s won twice for List and Saving Private Ryan). An Original Screenplay nod (alongside Tony Kushner) is coming where it could be a battle with Everything Everywhere All at Once or others.
What of the cast? It appears Williams (essentially portraying the filmmaker’s mom) deserves that front runner status in Supporting Actress. Her fifth nomination (after Brokeback Mountain, Blue Valentine, My Week with Marilyn, Manchester by the Sea) could at last be the charm. As Dad, Paul Dano could be in the mix for his first nod in an impressive year that includes his turn as The Riddler in The Batman. Yet it could be Judd Hirsch (in what’s said to be about 10 minutes of screen time) that lands attention in that race. His scene is said to be a scene stealer and if there’s only one nominee in the Supporting Actor field, expect it to be Hirsch over Dano or Seth Rogen. If so, that would come 42 years following Hirsch’s sole nod for Ordinary People. As for 19-year-old newcomer lead Gabriel LaBelle, he’s absolutely a contender for Best Actor though I’d say his making the cut is less certain than Williams or Hirsch.
No surprise that tech nods are anticipated including Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, and so forth. Bottom line: The Fabelmans has begun its long Oscar journey north of the border. Not only will it be nominated in the major categories, but it could win. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Viola Davis is the most nominated actress in history with four to her credit and one victory for 2016’s Fences. In The Woman King, the EOT recipient (missing that Grammy!) is in action heroine mode in this historical epic set in 19th century West Africa. Gina Prince-Bythewood directs with a supporting cast including Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim, and John Boyega.
Prior to its September 16th premiere, King has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival and there’s not a negative review to be found. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a clean 100%. Per usual, plenty of praise is going to Davis and it’s certainly possible she could join the five-timers club. I don’t believe that’s automatic as competition could be as fierce as the warrior she portrays.
A lot of King‘s feasibility for Oscar noms could come down to whether this hits at the box office. That remains to be seen. If so, we could see Davis in lead and either Mbedu or Lynch in supporting (both are being talked up for their contributions). I’m not so sure the critical reaction is strong enough for Best Picture to be a realistic nod. Tech nods are doable regardless like Costume Design and Production Design. It’s also just as possible that this is a solid genre flick that won’t catch the Academy’s attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Bros has made quite the splash in its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 30th stateside rollout. This is the first rom com to feature a primarily LGBTQ+ cast. Nicholas Stoller, who’s helmed successful genre fare like Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors, directs. Billy Eichner and Luke Macfarlane are the lead couple with a supporting cast including Ts Madison, Monica Raymond, Guillermo Diaz, Guy Branum, Amanda Bearse, Bowen Yang, and Debra Messing.
Early word out of Canada is that this is an entertaining and alternately sweet and raunchy romp (something I can confirm having been at the world premiere last night). The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 89%. I’m not sure Bros is as much an Oscar player (where there’s a comedic allergy) as it is a Globes contender. Since they differentiate between Drama and Musical/Comedy, I could easily see the Hollywood Foreign Press nominating this for Best Picture and for Eichner in Best Actor.
That said, I wouldn’t say its Academy hopes are completely dashed. There’s usually a lone screenplay nominee that receives no other nods and Stoller and Eichner’s original screenplay could fit that particular bill. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Before 2017, the Golden Lion winner (the Venice Film Festival’s top prize) rarely lined up with movies that received Best Picture nominations at the Oscars. In fact, you would have had to go back to 2005 and Brokeback Mountain. Then from 2017-2020 – every nominee did (The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, Nomadland). Last year’s Happening did not. So it stands to reason that the eyes of prognosticators were heavily trained on today’s ceremony.
The jury’s selection was a bit of a surprise with the documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. Not because it wasn’t acclaimed… it absolutely was. It’s unexpected because this is the only the second doc to take Venice’s biggest award. And that dates back to 1946. My guess is that this won’t translate to an Academy BP nod, but there’s no question it helps Beauty look good in the eyes of Oscar’s documentary branch.
France’s Saint Omer took the Grand Jury Prize (essentially second place). It will hope to follow in the footsteps of last year’s victor The Hand of God, which made the final cut in International Feature Film. Like Bloodshed, it’s also playing in Toronto where it hopes to grow the buzz.
The Silver Lion (the equivalent of Best Director) was bestowed upon Luca Guadagnino for Bones and All. The horror romance garnered loud cheers from the Italian faithful. Taylor Russell, who co-stars with Timothee Chalamet, picked up the Marcello Mastroianni Award, which is for an emerging performer. Though the genre doesn’t lend itself well to Academy attention, I wouldn’t sleep on this picture.
Best Screenplay went to Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin, which made a splash with its premiere and established itself as a firm candidate for possibilities throughout the coming season. The Banshees appreciation also included Colin Farrell as Best Actor. This is significant considering he beat out heavy hitters like Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Hugh Jackman (The Son).
Finally, Cate Blanchett rather predictably took Best Actress for TAR. Get used to seeing her name at every awards show from now until the early months of 2023.
And there you have it! As a side note, I’m deep into screenings at Toronto. I’m trying to post as much as possible with any breaks I have, but that’s quite a challenge (anyone who’s attended a film festival will get it). Don’t get me wrong – I’m not complaining. This is my first TIFF and I’m continuously pinching myself. It’s not everyday you see Daniel Craig, Jennifer Lawrence, Billy Eichner, Judd Apatow, Paul Raci, Finn Wolfhard, and Sterling K. Brown within a 24 hour period. I’ll report back soon on all the happenings of awards season!
While she received two Golden Globe nominations in her short-lived career, the Oscars never recognized Marilyn Monroe. Could the Academy honor the performance of Ana de Armas in the biopic Blonde as the icon? Arriving in limited release on September 16th before its September 28th Netlix stream, Andrew Dominik’s pic comes with a rare NC-17 rating and a near three hour runtime. Adrien Brody, Bobby Cannavale, Xavier Samuel, and Julianne Nicholson costar in the adaptation of Joyce Carol Oates’s 2000 novel.
This is Dominik’s first feature since 2012’s Killing Them Softly (his 2007 Western The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford is considered by many to be a modern day classic). It premiered at Venice and early buzz is that this is a dark and rather sleazy and often enthralling exploration of the price of fame. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 84%.
I’m dubious that the Academy will embrace this as a BP contender. The real question is whether de Armas can make the cut. Based on initial reaction, she certainly can but it’s no guarantee… unlike, say, Cate Blanchett (Tar) or Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Her potential inclusion is probably contingent on how competition for slots plays out in the next four months. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
There could be a Pinocchio movie that contends for Oscars in 2022, but it’s not the one this post is focused on. Today marks the Disney Plus premiere of Pinocchio, the studio’s latest live-action remake of their iconic IP. The musical fantasy has some high profile talent with Robert Zemeckis directing and Tom Hanks, Cynthia Erivo, and Luke Evans appearing. Voice work is contributed by Benjamin Evan Ainsworth (as the title character), Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Keegan-Michael Key.
Some reviews claim it’s an OK watch, but plenty others have been quiet derisive. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 32%. Even without critical acclaim, the Mouse Factory’s live-action retelling of The Lion King managed a Visual Effects nod three years back. Don’t look for that to occur here as some of the buzz is quite dismissive of its overall look.
In November, Guillermo del Toro’s stop-motion animated version of the puppet turned real boy arrives on Netflix. We’ll see if it garners Academy chatter. This won’t. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
With plenty of critics citing inspiration from Agatha Christie, the humorous murder mystery See How They Run arrives in UK theaters Friday and in the US on September 16th. Marking the directorial debut of Tom George, four-time Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan and one-time winner Sam Rockwell lead a cast that includes Adrien Brody, Ruth Wilson, Harris Dickinson, and David Oyelowo.
Run forewent the fall festival circuit which surprised me a bit. Some reviews are appreciative of its charms while others aren’t nearly as impressed. The 76% Rotten Tomatoes indicates that most write-ups don’t have their knives out for it.
Speaking of, we’ll know whether Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is an awards player when it premieres in Toronto this weekend. I don’t believe this genre predecessor will be. Perhaps something like Production Design or Costume Design but that’s likely the extent of it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Two awards seasons ago, Florian Zeller’s The Father premiered at Sundance all the way back at a time known as January 2020. For over a year (and with the Oscars delayed due to COVID), the performance of Anthony Hopkins stayed in the minds of voters and he scored an upset Best Actor victory over the late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). The pic nabbed five other nominations including a win for its Adapted Screenplay.
Zeller’s follow-up is The Son and prognosticators including me anointed Hugh Jackman as the Best Actor frontrunner sight unseen. That dynamic has changed as it’s screened at Venice before moving to Toronto (the actual release is November 11th). The supporting cast includes Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, Zen McGrath, and Hopkins.
Unlike The Father where reviews were basically all laudatory, the Italian buzz for The Son is wildly mixed. Some are calling it an emotional gut punch and highly effective. Others are claiming it’s a big failure. If there seems to be agreement on one item, it’s the potency of Jackman. He still seems likely to make the Actor cut for his second nod after 2012’s Les Miserables. Yet I’m feeling more confident that I made the right call by placing Brendan Fraser (The Whale) in 1st place on Monday’s update and sliding Jackman to second.
Beyond its star, any other nominations for The Son appears questionable at press time. Perhaps Toronto reaction will help flesh it out – for better or worse. From the initial reaction, I’d say Kirby and McGrath could be possible in the supporting fields. Hopkins is said to have a smaller role and Dern’s character reportedly has less to work with than Kirby. It could find its way into Adapted Screenplay, but a win seems like a reach already.
Bottom line: Jackman should be safe though nothing else is with this one. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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