Selena Gomez My Mind & Me drops on Apple TV tomorrow after premiering at AFI Fest earlier this week. The film documents six years in the life of the pop singer and costar of Hulu’s hit comedy series Only Murders in the Building. Alek Keshishian is no stranger to the genre. Over 30 years ago, he was behind the camera for Madonna: Truth or Dare.
The streaming service premiering Mind is no stranger to the genre. Last year, Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry made the shortlist of titles in contention for Documentary Feature. It didn’t end up making the final five. Blurry also had the benefit of a limited theatrical release. Unless I missed it, I’ve yet to find evidence that Mind is receiving an awards qualifying run.
While early reviews are uniformly positive (100% on Rotten Tomatoes), it may simply not be eligible for consideration. Even it is, if Billie couldn’t get in, I doubt Selena would. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We have reached Best Actress in my deep dives of the major Oscar races. If you didn’t catch my takes on the supporting derbies and lead actor, you can access them here:
Before we get to this very competitive Actress competition, let’s see how I did at this point in the calendar from 2019-21. Three years ago, I managed to identify all 5 eventual nominees – winner Renee Zellweger (Judy), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). For the late October/early November frame in 2020 and 2021, I correctly called 3 of the 5. In 2020, that was Frances McDormand (Nomadland), who won her third Oscar along with Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were mentioned in Other Possibilities. The victor was also named last year with Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye as well as Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer). Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) were in Other Possibilities.
So if the last three years are any precursor, you should find the eventual quintet in my ten picks! Frances McDormand could have company with performers sporting a trio of gold statues. A Supporting Actress winner in 2004 for The Aviator and lead actress recipient for 2013’s Blue Jasmine, Cate Blanchett is drawing some career best kudos for Tár. She’s been in my #1 spot for weeks and if she wins, she’d join McDormand, Katherine Hepburn, and Ingrid Bergman as the only actresses to win more than two Oscars.
Her main competition could come from several performers. Michelle Yeoh is receiving a massive push for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which is a threat to win numerous big races including Best Picture. There’s another Michelle and it’s a surprise… Michelle Williams. As I discussed in my Supporting Actress write-up, her performance in The Fabelmans would likely be a guaranteed winner in that category. With the more competitive vibe of lead actress, it’s not even a guarantee that she makes it in.
While Till may struggle to get recognition elsewhere despite strong reviews and an A+ Cinemascore, Danielle Deadwyler looks pretty strong to make the cut. On the other hand, so-so critical reaction could prevent Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) from getting her fourth nod in five years.
There are two performances yet to be seen that could both make a splash: Margot Robbie for Babylon and Naomi Ackie as Whitney Houston in I Wanna Dance with Somebody. It’s easy to envision either rising up if the reactions are positive enough.
Despite solid box office, Viola Davis could face an uphill battle for The Woman King. That narrative could change if both Robbie and Ackie falter. Some intensely negative audience and critical buzz for Blonde may leave Ana de Armas out. And there’s always potential dark horses. Emma Thompson will probably get a Golden Globes nom for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, but Academy inclusion could be a reach. Women Talking‘s Rooney Mara might be ignored in favor of her supporting costars like Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley. Causeway may not draw enough attention for Jennifer Lawrence to make it and the same holds true for The Wonder‘s Florence Pugh. Decision to Leave (despite having a chance to take International Feature Film) may not see its cast be a factor. That would leave out Tang Wei.
My detailed look at six of the top Oscar categories – Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies – arrives at Best Actor. If you missed the posts covering the supporting races, you can find them here:
At this late October/early November stage of forecasting in the previous three years, my picks in the lead acting competitions have been more accurate than the supporting ones.
In 2019 at this juncture, I managed to correctly identify four of the five eventual nominees: winner Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). The fifth was Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory and he was listed in Other Possibilities.
Three of five was the story in 2020 and 2021. Two years ago, I had The Father‘s Anthony Hopkins (who won), Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Gary Oldman (Mank) pegged with Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) and Steven Yeun (Minari) as possibles.
You may remember that Will Smith took gold last year for King Richard. I had him correctly called with two months remaining on the calendar. Same with Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog and Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) was mentioned in Other Possibilities. Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) had yet to enter my top ten.
Had a certain slap heard around the world not occurred, it’s totally possible that Will Smith (Emancipation) might be listed in my top 5. However, with his current ban from attending the ceremony, I question whether he could make a return to the ballot so quickly after the controversy. Therefore he’s not in my top 10. We’ll see if the reviews (coming soon) change the dynamic.
We do have a frontrunner and that’s Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Since its Venice and Toronto fest bows, he’s drawn raves. This is also a comeback narrative that the Academy should fall for. I’ve had Fraser listed in 1st for several weeks and I see no reason to change that.
There are two viable runners-up in Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Austin Butler (Elvis). I’ve been switching them in 2nd and 3rd place over the past few posts. Farrell is 2nd because I think Banshees stands a better shot at a BP nod. You have to go back to 2009 and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) where the Best Actor recipient’s movie didn’t achieve BP inclusion. If Elvis makes the big dance – an argument could be made that Butler is Fraser’s most serious competition to shake the race up.
After those three names, it could be a free for all for the final two slots. The only other performer I had listed in 1st place other than Fraser was Hugh Jackman for The Son. This was before it premiered at the festivals and garnered middling reviews. Now the question is whether Jackman gets in at all.
Someone who has fared well on the fest circuit is Bill Nighy for Living. Sony Pictures will need to mount a spirited campaign, but they’re good at that kinda thing. I’m starting to feel better about Nighy than Jackman.
Diego Calva is the biggest remaining question mark for Babylon. Screenings coming up in two weeks should help answer his viability. There’s a pair of indie performances that could bubble up if critics groups assist – Paul Mescal for Aftersun and Jeremy Pope in The Inspection. One possible hindrance for both of them is their movies are both A24 and that studio could be distracted with crowning Fraser. We could see foreign film leads Song Kang-ho (Broker) and Park Hae-il (Decision to Leave) make a play.
Netflix is apparently going in on a spirited campaign for Adam Sandler in Hustle. I have a hard time seeing that pan out (especially since he couldn’t get in for Uncut Gems). The streamer could also focus on Christian Bale (The Pale Blue Eye) or Adam Driver (White Noise). Bale also has Amsterdam, but it failed with critics and audiences.
Finally… there’s Tom Cruise. A three-time nominee, it’s been 23 years since he was in the mix. And a little pic called Top Gun: Maverick was easily the largest blockbuster of his career and the runaway hit of 2022. I’m not ready to put him in my five. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up there.
Here’s my current state of this race:
1 . Brendan Fraser, The Whale (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
The Supporting Actress derby is up next for my deep dives in the six major categories (Picture, Director, the 4 acting competitions). If you missed my current take on Supporting Actor, it’s here:
With two months left to go in the calendar year, it’s a good time to take stock in where we stand in 2022 with the various hopefuls. In 2019 and 2020 in late October, I correctly identified 3 of the 5 eventual nominees in Supporting Actress. Three years ago, that included eventual winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell). I had Scarlett Johansson listed in Other Possibilities for Jojo Rabbit while not having Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) yet on the radar. A year later, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were already in my top five. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) took the gold. Both she and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were tagged in Other Possibilities.
The ratio dropped in 2021. I named 2 of the 5 women with Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (who won) and Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. 2 nominees – Judi Dench (Belfast) and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) – were in Other Possibilities while Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) wasn’t in my listed ten.
We arrive at 2022 where Ms. Buckley is in the mix again. She appears in Women Talking alongside a large ensemble of additional actresses. This film gives us the highest probability of seeing double nominees from the same picture. It’s happened three times since 2010. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams were up for The Fighter that year with Leo emerging victorious. In 2011, Octavia Spencer took the statue for The Help with Jessica Chastain also making the cut. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were both in the mix for 2018’s The Favourite.
With Women Talking, the Academy could dive a tad deeper with Judith Ivery and Sheila McCarthy (who are standouts). I suspect they’ll go with Buckley and Claire Foy (who was notably snubbed three years ago for First Man). I’ve had the latter listed in first place as she’s got a slightly meatier role.
That brings us to a key caveat in this race. A few weeks back, there was the unexpected announcement that Michelle Williams in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in lead actress. She could’ve easily been placed here. If the studio had done that, I would continue to have Williams at #1 and feel confident that she’d win her first Oscar. However, in the Best Actress competition, I only have her in fourth position as of my last forecast.
Back to performers who are eligible in this. As long as The Banshees of Inisherin performs well with voters (and it should), Kerry Condon should make the quintet and could be a threat to win. Truth be told, this seems like a wide open competition without Williams. I could see either Women Talking actress at the podium or Condon. Same goes for Hong Chau as Brendan Fraser’s caretaker in The Whale or Stephanie Hsu as the world altering daughter in Everything Everywhere All at Once. That film offers the possibility of an additional double nomination with Jamie Lee Curtis’s nearly unrecognizable role. As for The Whale, I think Chau is far more likely than costar Sadie Sink.
I’m not as sold on Anne Hathaway in Armageddon Time, which may not make a dent at the ceremony. The many negative reviews for The Son have me questioning the viability of Vanessa Kirby or Laura Dern. Cha Cha Real Smooth might be too small for Dakota Johnson to nab her first Academy mention. Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King seems like a stretch. There’s unseen performances that could rise up like Kate Winslet (Avatar: The Way of Water) or Jean Smart (Babylon). Of all those choices, only Smart is in the top ten.
Critics groups may be integral in weeding out the nominees. This is where we could see Nina Hoss (Tár) or Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) rise up. Or we could get a nominee from a forthcoming hit such as Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) or Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).
Over the past couple of months, all of my five nominees have come from films that I have in my 1o Best Picture hopefuls. That also holds true for Supporting Actor. And, frankly, that usually doesn’t happen. This is partly why I’m putting Carey Mulligan (She Said) in my projections after the studio announced she’ll vie for supporting instead of lead. I’ve got She Said barely missing a BP nod.
Bottom line: nothing is close to being settled in Supporting Actress and the talking about these women could change as we get closer to nomination time.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
With two months to go for 2022 releases to make their mark with awards voters, it’s a opportune time to assess the six major Oscar races. That would be Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
It begins with Supporting Actor. Over the past couple of years, this has been the category that’s confounded me the most during this juncture in the calendar.
That was a different story three years ago. In late October of 2019, I correctly identified 4 out of the eventual 5 nominees. This included winner Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as well as Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), and Al Pacino (The Irishman). The other nominee – Joe Pesci for The Irishman – was in my #6 spot.
For the unpredictable year that was 2020 (due to constantly shifting release dates because of COVID), I only named 2 of the 5 hopefuls two months out – Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami. I still had eventual victor Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected for lead actor until the studio announced him for supporting.
In 2021, I made a point to say that the Supporting Actor derby was wide open in late October. And that was evidenced in my only identifying 1 of the eventual Supporting Actor quintet in the Halloween time frame – Ciaran Hinds in Belfast. I had Troy Kotsur (CODA), who would take the gold statue, in 10th place. Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) was in first place and he missed out. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), who made the cut, was in 8th place. His costar Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) weren’t listed at all.
Which brings us to 2022 and at this spooky time of year, I would say this competition is up in the air with no obvious frontrunner. 12 months ago, however, I couldn’t have imagined I’d kick off the speculation with this sentence…
The Supporting Actor discussion starts with Ke Huy Quan.
The 51-year-old actor belongs in the mid 80s cinematic Hall of Fame with his turns as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies. His return to acting in Everything Everywhere All at Once has been met with raves. It’s also undeniable that his win would be a heckuva Academy narrative nearly 40 years after his iconic child performances. I’ve had him listed in first place for weeks and that remains.
In four of the last five years, we’ve witnessed double nominees in Supporting Actor. Last year it was the aforementioned Smit-McPhee and Plemons for The Power of the Dog. In 2020, we had the winner Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah and his costar Lakeith Stanfield. 2019’s Irishman double duo was Pacino and Pesci. Five years ago, it was Sam Rockwell (who won) and Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Martin McDonagh directed Billboards and his follow-up is The Banshees of Inisherin. Brendan Gleeson has sat in the #2 position for several prediction posts in a row. He’s a threat to take the prize. I believe his costar Barry Keoghan may also get in.
Banshees is not the only viable option for double nominees. Ke Huy Quan’s Doom maker Steven Spielberg has The Fabelmans. Before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival, we wondered whether Paul Dano or Seth Rogen (or both) would be the likely nominee(s). Post screening, scene (just one scene) stealer Judd Hirsch bubbled up while Rogen’s viability dwindled. Dano’s work is understated and certainly not as flashy as Hirsch’s brief turn. That leads me to put Hirsch in with Dano on the outside looking in. I’ll admit it’s a coin flip.
Damien Chazelle’s Babylon screens for critics in two weeks. There’s a trio of possibilities with Brad Pitt, Jovan Adepo, and Tobey Maguire. I’ve had Pitt in my 5 previously. It’s fair to speculate whether his recent tabloid headlines could hinder him. We’ll know more once reviews roll in.
Ben Whishaw in Women Talking is a trendy selection and for good reason. I’m not completely sold as voters could opt to focus only on his female cast members Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley (and maybe others) in Supporting Actress. Yet it feels wrong to keep him out right now.
You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time the five contenders all came from Best Picture nominees. I’m not wild about the fact that my projections currently do. There’s a few names that could get in from movies I’m not putting in BP list. We have Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse, Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, Jeremy Strong or Anthony Hopkins in Armageddon Time, Mark Rylance in Bones and All, Micheal Ward in Empire of Light, Don Cheadle in White Noise, and Tom Hanks in Elvis. Of that group, I’m starting to flirt with the idea of Rylance being the guy. He scored an upset win here with Bridge of Spies in 2015 over Sylvester Stallone in Creed and Bones has its ardent admirers. I wouldn’t discount the Redmayne pick as he’s a Best Actor winner in 2014 for The Theory of Everything who was nominated again the following year with The Danish Girl. If Elvis manages a BP nod (not out of the question), this would increase the inclusion of Hanks. I do have Triangle of Sadness in my BP ten and that could mean a third nomination for Woody Harrelson.
Bottom line: I feel pretty confident about Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson. Everything everywhere else is up in the air.
With that said, here’s my state of the race:
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Tom Hanks, Elvis
My deep dive with the Supporting Actress field is next!
Currently among the top streaming pictures on Netflix is The School for Good and Evil, Paul Feig’s adaptation of Soman Chainani’s 2013 fairytale fantasy novel. Hoping for a Potter like franchise, the jury is still out on whether that occurs. Sophia Anne Caruso and Sofia Wylie are the leads with a supporting cast of familiar faces including Charlize Theron, Kerry Washington, Laurence Fishburne, Michelle Yeoh, Rob Delaney, and Patti LuPone.
School was released in select theaters and that qualifies it for awards consideration. Given its setting and influences, categories like Costume Design or Production Design or Makeup and Hairstyling are feasible. However, the critical reception this has generated is troubling. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 35% and the Audience Score is a meh 69%.
My guess is voters will hold back including this for any races. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Elvis has left the top ten predicted nominees in my Best Picture rankings and it’s Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave back in the mix. The good news continues for Leave as it returns to #1 in International Feature Film over its close competitor All Quiet on the Western Front.
While the directing and lead acting derbies remain the same, there are changes in both supporting races. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is back in Supporting Actress over Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness). Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) falls out of the Supporting Actor quintet with Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) moving up.
Another picture increasing its nomination count is Living. I already had Bill Nighy in the Best Actor five and I’m now putting it in Adapted Screenplay while removing White Noise. Living also makes its debut in Costume Design for a total of three nods.
Later this week, I’ll have State of the Race detailed posts on the six major competitions (Picture, Director, the 4 acting contests).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Tár (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)
12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)
13. Elvis (PR: 9) (-3)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Till
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Strange World (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alcarras (PR: 8) (E)
9. Klondike (PR: 6) (-3)
10. EO (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1 . All the Beautyand the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Aftershock (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emancipation
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Corsage (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-2)
10. X (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)
4.“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 9) (E)
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Is Not Love” from Bros
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bardo (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Bardo
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
5 Nominations
Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living
2 Nominations
Bardo, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing
Of the ten 10 previous films making up the DC Extended Universe, there’s only one Oscar nomination to be found. That’s the third film in the franchise – 2016’s Suicide Squad – and it’s a win in the Makeup and Hairstyling race.
Black Adam with Dwayne Johnson represents a new chapter in the DCEU as Warner Bros hopes the character becomes a fixture in future installments. Out Friday, the review embargo has lifted and critical reaction is certainly in the mixed variety. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 54%.
From Man of Steel up through last summer’s new version of The Suicide Squad, even the competitions where comic book adaptations can contend have escaped awards attention. That includes Best Sound and Visual Effects (where numerous MCU titles have been nominated though never won). From what I’ve seen reaction wise, there’s no reason to think Black Adam would be contending for a second DCEU nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On the bright side for Netflix, I have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio at #1 in Animated Feature where it’s been perched all along. That would mean the streamer could nab its first victory ever in that race.
Now the bad news as my current Best Picture nominees leaves Netflix on the cutting room floor. In 2018, Roma was the first hopeful in the big dance. It was expected to win, but lost to Green Book. 2019 brought double nominees with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Same in 2020 with Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7. And there were two contenders again last year in Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog (a frontrunner until CODA fever emerged).
I had All Quiet on the Western Front in the mix 11 days ago. Yet I’ve had a nagging feeling that another blockbuster not named Top Gun: Maverick will get in. So for the first time, Elvis is in the top ten. That moneymaker spot could also be filled with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (from Netflix), Avatar: The Way of Water, or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Think could also be called the “Second Sequel” slot, I suppose.
Don’t be surprised if Netflix eventually gets back in. Quiet, the aforementioned Onion, Bardo, and Pinocchio are all viable (maybe even White Noise). For now, my BP hopefuls would mean a disappointing nomination morning for the streamer.
She Said received mostly positive notices when it was unveiled Thursday at the New York Film Festival. It could absolutely be a BP contender, but I’m got it just on the outside and feel more comfortable forecasting it as a lone screenplay nominee (I don’t love the current 76% RT meter for it). You’ll note I don’t have any of the cast in my top tens. Perhaps the eventual announcement of category placements could change that.
In other developments:
I’ve decided to move Babylon‘s Margot Robbie back in Best Actress instead of supporting (can we please get that placement announcement??). It means she’s back in and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) is out.
Bill Nighy’s work in Living returns to Actor five with Diego Calva (Babylon) sliding into sixth position.
With Robbie returning to lead, Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is elevated to fifth in Supporting Actress.
My Supporting Actor dual nominee projections of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin shifts to Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans. That means Hirsch rises while Keoghan falls.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Rank: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (-1)
12. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Babylon (moved to Best Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Till (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alcarras (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Corsage (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Descendant (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Aftershock (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sr.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Corsage (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Woman King (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Living (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tar (PR: 9) (+2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tar (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bardo (PR: 10) (+2)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Love Is Not Love” from Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Thirteen Lives
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
That equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis
5 Nominations
Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Till, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, White Noise
2022 should be the year where Netflix makes significant waves in the Best Animated Feature category at the Oscars and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is its lead off hitter. The acclaimed filmmaker’s stop-motion passion project is out in select theaters next month with a streaming release on December 9th. Receiving a first look today at the London Film Festival, Pinocchio arrives a half decade after del Toro’s The Shape of Water took Best Picture (along with a directorial victory) and one year after his follow-up Nightmare Alley made the BP ten. Actors providing voiceovers include Ewan McGregor, David Bradley, Gregory Mann, Finn Wolfhard, Cate Blanchett, John Turturro, Ron Perlman, Tim Blake Nelson, Burn Gorman, Christoph Waltz, and Tilda Swinton.
Since I added Animated Feature in my predictions a few weeks back, I’ve had del Toro’s tale of the iconic puppet turned real boy listed in first place. Part of that is due to its maker’s track record. That’s not the only reason why. The other is that it might be a rare off year for Disney, who have taken the gold statue 15 out of 21 times. This summer’s Lightyear was a high profile flop that is likely to be omitted from the final five altogether. Turning Red from the spring achieved solid enough notices to make the cut, but I certainly don’t see it as an automatic winner. The Mouse Factory still has next month’s Strange World in their arsenal so we’ll see if that emerges as a major threat.
Several critics from the London screenings are proclaiming this Pinocchio to be great or near great. On the other hand, some reviews aren’t quite as effusive. I do think the early word-of-mouth is enough to take comfort in the #1 ranking. Yet I wouldn’t say it’s a slam dunk pick to take gold like, say, 2020’s Soul was. I would also keep an eye on Original Score with Alexandre Desplat composing. Visual Effects is also doable (if perhaps a stretch).
A nomination seems assured and Netflix could hold 60% of the nominees this year. Wendell and Wild, another upcoming stop-motion pic from Henry Selick, should get in. Either The Sea Beast or My Father’s Dragon could as well (though probably not both). The streamer got their first contender in 2019 with Klaus and then Over the Moon in 2020 and The Mitchells vs. the Machines last year. They’re 0 for 3 in wins. That may change with del Toro in the company mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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