Olivia Colman headlines the irreverent and vulgarly romantic Sundance premiere Wicker from co-directors Alex Huston Fischer and Eleanor Wilson. As a Fisherwoman who builds herself a wooden boyfriend, the supporting cast includes Alexander Skarsgård (as said BF), Peter Dinklage, and Elizbeth Debicki.
Currently seeking distribution, Rotten Tomatoes is at 93% with 68 on Metacritic for the bawdy concoction. Three-time nominee and one-time winner Colman (for The Favourite) will probably assist in easily securing a release deal. Oscar attention will be harder to achieve though I do wonder if the Globes could bite in their Musical or Comedy competitions if a legit campaign is mounted. If nothing else, the BAFTAs are a possibility (maybe remote dependent on competition) for Colman. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the fourth nominee – Hamnet from Chloé Zhao. If you missed my posts covering the previous three contenders, you can find them here:
Arriving five years after Zhao’s Nomadland took home Best Picture, Director, and Actress, the filmmaker hopes to do the same with this gut-wrenching historical drama. Besides BP, it’s up in 7 other races including Director, Actress (Jessie Buckley), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costume Design, Original Score, and Production Design. The ensemble is nominated at the SAG Actor awards and it made the BP cut at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Perhaps most significantly, it beat out Sinners in a slight upset for Best Drama at the Golden Globes. 3 out of the last BP Academy winners also featured the Best Actress victor and Buckley is definitely the frontrunner.
The Case Against Hamnet:
Despite some decent arguments in the case for, One Battle After Another and Sinners are still seen as the favorites. Hamnet missed some notable competitions at the Oscars – Cinematography, Editing and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal). Even at BAFTA (where it was expected to fare even better), it wasn’t nominated in Cinematography, Editing, or Casting. The Academy could feel they just honored Zhao.
The Verdict:
Buckley is in good shape unless upcoming precursors change the narrative. The movie itself might be in third when it comes to rankings. Despite the Globe win, I’d say it’s a distant third.
My Case Of posts will continue with fifth nominee Marty Supreme…
The easiest prediction to make for the 98th Academy Awards is that the winner of Best Documentary Feature is a Sundance Film Festival premiere. Why? All five nominated titles (The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor) were initially screened at the 2025 Park City event. The year before that, it was 4 of the 5 contending Sundance docs.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem is one you’ll be hearing about. David Greaves directs a project that was started over five decades ago by his late father William (a celebrated filmmaker himself). It focuses on a 1970s gathering of 1920s/30s artists from the NYC neighborhood. Early reviews are raves with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 96 on Metacritic. Called a vitally important historical document, this could be nominated and it may emerge victorious.
Having said that, the documentary branch from the Academy can be a head scratching group to nail down. I only managed 1 for 5 in my forecast for this year’s race. Even with that caveat, it would be shocking if Harlem is not in the conversation for the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the third nominee in the biggest race of all and that’s Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. If you missed my posts covering Bugonia and F1, you can find them here:
Del Toro’s dream project, arriving eight years after The Shape of Water won BP and director, amassed an impressive nine nominations. Those additional 8 mentions are Supporting Actor (Jacob Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. The Netflix production has shown up in significant precursors including SAG Actor ensemble, Critics Choice, PGA, and the Globes. Del Toro is up at DGA and Elordi won Supporting Actor at Critics Choice.
The Case Against Frankenstein:
There are no Picture wins at the aforementioned precursors and it missed the Best Film quintet at BAFTA. The omission from the Brits confirms that Frankenstein is probably 6th among the contending ten. While the nine nominations are noteworthy, Del Toro missing Director and no nod in Film Editing are significant.
The Verdict:
It’s alive in races such as Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Not in Best Picture.
My Case Of posts will continue with Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet…
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.
Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
How I Did: 5/6
A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
How I Did: 5/6
I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
How I Did: 4/5
Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.
Best Animated Feature
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 1/3
I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka
How I Did: 4/5
Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 4/5
Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 4/5
Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.
Best Make Up and Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 3/5
A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Sinners is the frontrunner.
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
How I Did: 3/5
Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
How I Did: 4/5
Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve
How I Did: 7/10
I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
How I Did: 3/5
Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.
Best Children’s + Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 2/4
Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.
That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominatons
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
8 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
Bugonia, I Swear
3 Nominations
The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion
2 Nominations
The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman
The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.
A remake of the 2020 Spanish comedy The People Upstairs, Olivia Wilde’s third directorial feature The Invite has screened at the Sundance Film Festival. The four-hander’s cast consists of Wilde, Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, and Penélope Cruz.
Early word-of-mouth suggests a distributor should snatch this up quickly. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 93% with Metacritic at 74. Wilde has a double dose of raunchy material playing in Park City with I Want Your Sex also debuting. The Invite is nabbing slightly stronger reviews. The reaction is closer to Wilde’s behind the camera debut Booksmart rather than her sophomore effort Don’t Worry Darling. It may not translate to Oscar attention. However, with the right campaign and studio/streamer behind it, the Globes could take notice courtesy of their Musical or Comedy competitions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.
For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!
Best Film
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Harry Melling, Pillion
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
I Swear
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – It Was Just an Accident
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Alternate – Train Dreams
Best Animated Film
Arco
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba– The Movie: Infinity Castle
KPop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Ocean with David Attenborough
The Perfect Neighbor
2000 Meters to Andrivka
Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – No Other Choice
Best Casting
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sirāt
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Cinematography
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Editing
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – F1
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Production Design
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
The Lost Bus
Superman
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later
Ballad of a Small Player
The Ballad of Wallis Island
The Choral
Die, My Love
Hamnet
H is for Hawk
I Swear
Pillion
Warfare
Alternate – Steve
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
My Father’s Shadow
Ocean with David Attenborough
Pillion
Urchin
Wasteman
Alternate – The Ceremony
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco
Grow
How to Train Your Dragon
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Hamnet, Sinners
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Pillion
4 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. If you missed my post covering Bugonia, you can find it linked here:
If Academy voters wish to honor a nominee that many viewers have seen, F1 is a sensible road considering it made nearly $200 million domestically and $442 million worldwide. The racing drama with Brad Pitt made the top 10 cut for PGA and NBR. F1, from the director of 2022 BP nominee Top Gun: Maverick, was also nominated for Film Editing, Sound, and Visual Effects.
The Case Against F1:
The four total nominations ties three other movies for lowest mentions among the BP ten. F1 wasn’t nominated for the highest honor at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice. It is the only contender without a nomination in directing, screenplay, or any of the acting derbies. If Academy voters wish to honor something that did well at the box office, they have an even more viable option in Sinners.
The Verdict:
F1 is probably 10th out of the 10 possibilities in the largest race though it could manage to pick up gold in Sound.
Gregg Araki’s I Want Your Sex does not chronicle the making of George Michael’s nearly 40-year-old pop hit. Premiering at Sundance, the explicit comedy stars Olivia Wilde and Cooper Hoffman as an unconventional couple with Mason Gooding, Chase Sui Wonders, Daveed Diggs, and Charlie XCX in the supporting cast.
Early word-of-mouth suggests the romp (seeking distribution) has some positive attributes but may appeal only to a niche crowd. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 85% with Metacritic at 63. It’s safe to assume this won’t be in awards contention. Olivia Wilde’s directorial effort (The Invite) which is also screening in Park City might be another story and you can expect that write-up on the blog in short order. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Sundance Film Festival is underway this weekend for the final time in Park City before it moves to Boulder in 2027. This is also the first Sundance since the passing of its legendary founder Robert Redford. In particular, Sundance is a major indicator of the documentaries that will be in eventual Oscar contention. At the 2025 fest, all five just nominated docs played there. Also last year, BP nominee Train Dreams got its first exposure as did Rose Byrne’s nominated Best Actress turn in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
You can expect a few Sundance related prediction posts to pop up in the coming days, but we’ll start with Josephine. The drama marks the second film for auteur Beth de Araújo (behind 2022’s Soft & Quiet) and it incorporates a traumatizing incident involving sexual violence that the filmmaker experienced at a young age. Gemma Chan, Channing Tatum, and Philip Ettinger lead the cast and early word-of-mouth is very complimentary to them.
Yet the loudest praise is going to eight-year-old Mason Reeves in her title role cinematic debut. The raves for Josephine and the girl playing her is already an indication of potential awards attention down the line. Reeves might be a shoo-in at the Critics Choice Awards for Best Young Actor/Actress. A distributor is likely to snatch up rights quickly. One question is whether the tough subject matter will be a hindrance. The first reviews out of Utah suggest it could be in the mix for Picture, some acting nods, and Original Screenplay with a deftly handled campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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