2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Continuing on with my first round of Oscar predictions, day two brings us to Best Supporting Actor. In both 2014 and 2015, my late August/early September initial picks yielded two out the eventual five nominees. Last year, these first picks correctly identified winner Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.

There are plenty of contenders to list at this early stage. One of the big question marks in plenty of categories is Martin Scorsese’s Silence, a passion project and historical drama that has yet to release a trailer or announce when it’s coming out. It is assumed that it’ll be out in time for Oscar consideration. If so, Liam Neeson is likely to be a contender in this race (and maybe costar Adam Driver).

As mentioned yesterday with Kristen Stewart in Supporting Actress, Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk appears to be a potential major awards player and the beloved Steve Martin could reap the benefits with his first ever acting nod. Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund are also possibilities.

Michael Shannon could be under consideration for two high-profile fall entries – Jeff Nichols’ Loving or Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.

Barry Jenkins’ indie African-American romantic drama Moonlight is getting attention (I predicted Naomie Harris yesterday for Supporting Actress recognition) and Mahershala Ali (known to many as Remy Danton on Netflix’s “House of Cards”) could find himself in the mix.

Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is also expected to garner Oscar talk (it’ll screen for critics on the festival circuit in days) and it could feature a breakout role for singer John Legend.

And there’s many more possibilities, including Warren Beatty’s return to the silver screen in Rules Don’t Apply. There’s John Goodman’s already acclaimed work in 10 Cloverfield Lane (though the genre could make him a long shot). Or maybe a first nomination for Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins. And there’s two movies that Aaron Eckhart could find himself being considered for.

As always, the list will be updated in the weeks and months ahead, but for now…

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

John Legend, La La Land

Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Liam Neeson, Silence

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Other Possibilities:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Kyle Chandler, Manchester by the Sea

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Robert De Niro, Hands of Stone

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Adam Driver, Silence

Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

Aaron Eckhart, Sully

Brendan Gleeson, Live by Night

John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Stephen Henderson, Fences

Oscar Isaac, The Promise

Nick Offerman, The Founder

Edgar Ramirez, Gold

Michael Shannon, Loving

J.K. Simmons, La La Land

Timothy Spall, Denial

Chris Tucker, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

And there you have it! Best Actress tomorrow…

X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction

The Mutants are back in the multiplex as X-Men: Apocalypse hits screens this Memorial Day weekend. Bryan Singer (who directed the first two well-regarded entries in the original trilogy and 2014’s Days of Future Past) is back behind the camera with franchise regulars James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Nicholas Hoult, and Rose Byrne returning, in addition to Oscar Isaac and Olivia Munn.

The pic is likely to rule the holiday weekend, but it is worth noting that competition is fiercer than two years ago when Future Past debuted on the same weekend. In 2014, the only other newcomer was the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore dud Blended. This time around, it’s Alice Through the Looking Glass, another high-profile sequel.

This is the 8th X-Men franchise flick in the 21st century (counting the two stand-alone Wolverine features) and the best opening so far is ironically 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand. Despite being generally regarded as the worst of the X series, it premiered to $102 million over that year’s Memorial Day Weekend from Friday to Sunday with $122 million for the four-day holiday frame. Days of Future Past was second with a $90 million Friday to Sunday and $110 million Friday to Monday.

Apocalypse would love to match Last Stand‘s debut or exceed it and there’s another common bond between them. This is the third movie in the current trilogy that began with 2011’s X-Men: First Class and like Stand, it’s receiving the weakest reviews. First Class earned an 87% Rotten Tomatoes score. Future Past improved slightly with 91%. Apocalypse currently sits at just 53%. The somewhat negative word of mouth and more significant competition could cause this to gross under what Past managed. However, I don’t think it’ll be much under.

I look for Apocalypse to post a low to mid-80s start for the traditional three-day with a gross just eclipsing the century mark for the holiday weekend.

X-Men: Apocalypse opening weekend prediction: $82.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $100.4 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Alice Through the Looking Glass prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/alice-through-the-looking-glass-box-office-prediction/

 

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Movie Review

When the famous line “A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away” appears and the Star Wars emblem rockets across the screen, it evokes a series of emotions that is familiar to any lover of the franchise. It changes from generation to generation but is likely strongest with those old enough to recall the first time seeing it in 1977 when the original premiered. The first Star Wars was a cultural phenomenon from the get go. It solidified what we now know as the modern blockbuster era. Its sequel The Empire Strikes Back improved upon it. Return of the Jedi ended the trilogy on a satisfactory if more uneven note. I was not alive in 1977 and I witnessed the series in a weekend of VHS viewing where I was captivated like legions of film lovers across the globe.

By the time George Lucas got around to making his prequel trilogy, I was age 19 at the time of The Phantom Menace. Like all other fans of what came before it, I anticipated Menace breathlessly and like many others, it was a letdown in many fashions. It didn’t really look like a Star Wars pic. More like a video game. In all honesty, the concept of watching the eventual Darth Vader as a precocious child wasn’t really necessary. Follow ups Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith were improvements in some ways (especially Sith) yet still didn’t come close to matching the magic of the real trilogy (as I refer to it).

Therefore it was with a sense of major excitement mixed with some trepidation that I awaited Star Wars: The Force Awakens, episode VII of the franchise that picks up about 30 years after the events of Return of the Jedi. George Lucas sold the rights to Disney, who have grand Marvel style plans for the series. J.J. Abrams, who successfully reinvigorated the Star Trek flicks, is behind the camera. The beloved trio of Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill), Han Solo (Harrison Ford), and Princess (now General) Leia (Carrie Fisher) would return along with Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO. A new generation of heroes and villains would emerge. The three year wait is finally over and the question is ready to be answered: does Force have the force to bring Star Wars back in the good graces of those who cherish it? The answer is mostly an unqualified and resounding yes.

Episode VII informs us that Luke Skywalker has vanished and the evil First Order (spawned from Darth Vader’s galactic empire) has restored its dominance despite a resistance led by Leia. The Resistance is desperately attempting to obtain a map containing Luke’s whereabouts that is built into BB-8, a droid that is pretty adorable in a manner in which Jar Jar Binks sure wasn’t. One of the leaders of the movement is pilot Poe Dameron (Oscar Isaac), whose character doesn’t have much impact in these proceedings but likely will in future installments. He teams with Storm Trooper gone good Finn (John Boyega) on the mission to find Skywalker. And that BB-8 droid leads them to Rey (Daisy Ridley), a young girl who has a connection with The Force. Their union soon brings them to Han, Chewie, and the now relic called the Millennium Falcon to fight First Order Commander Kylo Ren (Adam Driver) and Supreme Leader Snoke (Andy Serkis).

As we’d expect, there are some revelations about who some of the characters actually are. I wouldn’t dream of spoiling them here. J.J. Abrams is keenly aware of our nostalgia goggles and he presents a vision that hearkens back to the original in both plot and tone. This is a plus. J.J. and his cowriters Lawrence Kasdan (who penned Empire and Jedi) and Michael Arndt are clearly cognizant of the expectation to start anew while rewarding what we adore about episodes IV-VI. There is much plot to roll out, but Awakens does so at a usually brisk pace throwing in the epic battles that look more like we wish for in any entry since 1983.

The John Williams score and special effects are, of course, top notch. Of the returnees, Mr. Ford is given the most material and provides Solo wisecracks and some emotion. Fisher acquits herself decently even though Leia is primarily relegated to the sidelines. As for Luke, the filmmakers have been careful to reveal nothing and neither will I. When it comes to the newcomers, we sense that Rey, Finn, and Poe will establish the new trio for the next few years. Here it is Rey that jumps out and much of that is due to a fine performance from Miss Ridley. Boyega’s Finn has his moments along with occasionally clunky dialogue. Driver is quite effective as Ren and we have a new villain whose motivations create an intriguing dynamic in this universe.

I would rank The Force Awakens as the third best pic in the series, after the first two (slightly above Jedi). Abrams and company accomplish something Lucas ultimately could not with episodes I-III. We care more about the actions transpiring here than with anything from 1999-2005. This is a franchise awakened in a way we have not seen in over 30 years. For those who might have had a bad feeling about this, fear not.

***1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This weekend, Star Wars: The Force Awakens looks poised and primed to demolish box office records. It’s sold $100 million in pre-sale tickets (a previously unimaginable figure). The Disney marketing machine has been in hyper drive. Hyperbole it is not to say this is the most eagerly anticipated picture of the 21st century.

Over the last few months, I’ve been writing my Oscar predictions and now it’s to the point where I’m doing weekly predictions as we draw closer to the actual nominations coming in January. Through it, Star Wars has hung out there like a giant question mark. If it got rave reviews, could it potentially become a player not just to smash records, but to enter the Oscar fray?

Today the landscape has become clearer as the review embargo has been lifted on the eve of its release. And the word that’s emerged is glowing like Luke Skywalker’s lightsaber. Based on 127 reviews so far, The Force Awakens stands at a magnificent 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’ll confess that I’m being careful not to read the reviews (I’ll be seeing it Sunday and my own review will be on the blog that day), but the consensus is undeniably that this is a welcome return to the most beloved franchise in history.

Does that mean The Force Awakens could become the first entry in the series to nab a Best Picture nomination since the original in 1977? Yes… it does. Is it guaranteed? No and my predictions on Friday likely won’t have it making the cut. However, as it premieres to what could be history making numbers and with critics on its side, the forces could align to include it and possibly J.J. Abrams in the directing race. Stay tuned…

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction

It is not only the most anticipated film of the year but probably of the 21st century. This is not hyperbole. 38 years after George Lucas changed the movie industry forever with Star Wars, the baton has been passed to J.J. Abrams with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, out December 18. We’ve seen over a decade pass since the unevenly received second trilogy that ran from 1999-2005. This marked the end of Mr. Lucas’s involvement in the franchise and the end of 20th Century Fox producing the entries (no iconic Fox music before “In a galaxy far, far away” may take a little getting used to).

Instead we have Disney taking over the most beloved franchise in silver screen history and we’ve repeatedly seen their brilliance at marketing blockbusters (think Marvel Cinematic Universe). The Force Awakens has been omnipresent for months and it’s ramped up to the point where every other commercial seems to be connected somehow to it. The official trailers and TV spots have been events. It’s sold $100 million dollars at press time in pre-sale tickets, which was previously an unimaginable haul. With all the exposure, the studio has done a truly remarkable job in keeping plot details under wraps.

We know this: original trilogy stars Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, and Carrie Fisher return in the iconic roles of Luke Skywalker, Han Solo, and Princess Leia. A new generation makes up the supporting cast that includes John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, and Domhnall Gleeson. Oh and there’s Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO.

For those of us old enough to remember the breathless anticipation afforded to 1999’s Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, it’s probably the only thing that compares in the past couple of decades. There are many hotly anticipated blockbusters but Star Wars is simply on a different planet.

So now the nine figure question: how much will The Force Awakens earn its opening weekend? How much is it capable of making? Will its debut set the all time record? Fascinating queries indeed, these are.

We begin with this: the current record holder came out just this summer when Jurassic World earned $208.8 million, which edged out previous champ The Avengers at $207 million. I’m sure Disney would love to get that record back that the dinosaurs took away in June. These are the only two pictures that have made over $200M out of the gate. Both were released in summer, as are seven of the all time top ten domestic premieres.

None came out in December and this is not an inconsequential point. In fact, the current highest December debut belongs to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It made $84 million and that’s good for just the 57th largest opening ever. Truth be told, even massive blockbusters that open in December usually open smaller than they might in the summer. 2009’s Avatar began with $77 million before becoming the biggest stateside grosser ever. The reason is simple: Christmas time releases tend to play well over multiple weekends while similar summer titles make the bulk of their coin immediately.

Let’s dispatch with the glaringly obvious: The Force Awakens will obliterate the December record. At worst, it should double The Hobbit’s initial earnings. Frankly, guessing what Star Wars is capable of is a dicey proposition, but the low end of estimates is around $170-$175 million. If it managed that, it would sincerely be a fine start.

Yet there is a suspicion that Jurassic’s six month long record could be headed for extinction. The combo of Disney hype and a true love across all ages for the series has contributed to an Event Experience we rarely witness. What’s the highest it could go? Honestly, I don’t know. The figure of $300 million has been mentioned. That seems a bit crazy, but you just never know. There’s part of me that believes $275-$280 million might just be reachable and another that feels it could fall short of the record with around $185-$205 million.

What’s a box office predicting blogger to do? Split the difference. With this wide range of possibilities, I’ll project that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will achieve the best American opening ever and by a rather considerable margin. I’ll be one among many speculating over the next ten days before its debut, but my two cents is in, my friends. Let’s see what happens!

Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend prediction: $234.7 million

For my Sisters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/

For my Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-box-office-prediction/

Ex Machina Movie Review

Alex Garland’s Ex Machina shares similar themes of romance with an artificial intelligence being to that of Spike Jonze’s Her. Oh, but the tone is quite different. This low budget sci-fi feature announces a director with a visual style not unlike Kubrick and one suspects we’ll be seeing lots more from Garland in the future. We’ve seen similar material before, but never presented in the manner it is here and that makes Ex Machina an exciting experience.

The pic gets right into the plot as computer programmer Caleb (Domhnall Gleeson) is selected by his boss Nathan (Oscar Isaac) to travel to his gorgeous remote estate. Nathan is the founder and CEO of Bluebook, the largest search engine site in the world. Caleb is unsure of why he’s given this assignment but soon finds out that is to judge whether Nathan’s AI design Ava (Alicia Vikander) passes the Turing test. In other words, Caleb is to determine whether Ava passes for a human.

We witness their interaction through a series of sessions, with the eccentric, alcoholic, and probably dangerous Nathan monitoring their every moment of conversation. Almost. Intermittent periods of power blackouts allow Caleb and Ava to speak more frankly and Caleb soon discovers than Nathan’s intentions could be more sinister than he’s leading his employee to believe. As their sessions grow, Caleb develops an attraction for Ava and she becomes more and more human to him. She reciprocates his feelings.

The themes of the human race dealing with artificial intelligence in a sexual way are, once again, becoming a more common theme in cinema. Where Ex Machina succeeds is generating considerable tension in the dynamic between its two test subjects (there’s never much doubt Caleb is being tested too) and Nathan. Some of the movie’s most significant developments occur in the blackout periods generated by lost power and by Nathan’s love of hard liquor. We are constantly second guessing Nathan’s motives and soon begin to question Ava’s.

Isaac is given the juicy role here and he delivers another terrific performance once again. Gleeson is the straight man who convincingly plays the truly strange new world he’s found himself in. Yet Ex Machina hinges on the work of Vikander, who excels at creating this manufactured woman who quickly tugs at Caleb’s emotions.

There is no doubt that Garland is a real talent and he delivers a tight and often claustrophobic universe to let his three main players interact in (the only other major supporting player is Sonoyo Mizuno as Nathan’s non English speaking housemaid). With each subsequent session, the suspense escalates and we’re never quite sure where it’s all leading up to. When it does, the ending feels a tad predictable but also feels appropriate. This is not the sci-fi experience we’ve grown used to with an over reliance of effects. They’re here, but Ex Machina earns its worthiness from a director who confidently knows how to tell this story.

***1/2 (out of four)

Ex Machina Box Office Prediction

A legitimate wild card this weekend at the box office could be Ex Machina, a British science fiction tale that’s been on the receiving end of positive reviews and impressive per screen averages in limited release. It opens nationwide Friday, though I’ve yet to see a screen count which makes a prediction a little more complicated. Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac are among the cast in the directorial debut of Alex Garland, writer of 28 Days Later and Dredd.

The critically acclaimed feature (it sits at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes) made nearly $800,000 on just 39 screens last weekend for a sparkling $20k per screen average. That could bode well for filmgoers looking for a more serious sci fi offering before the summer onslaught begins with Avengers next weekend.

Again, without a screen count, it’s a tricky projection but I’ll estimate Ex Machina finds its way into the top five.

Ex Machina opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

A Most Violent Year Box Office Prediction

JC Chandor’s A Most Violent Year was once looked at as a potential awards contender, but it didn’t quite pan out. The crime thriller set in early 1980s New York City has been a hit with critics (it boasts a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet it received exactly zero Oscar nominations.

The cast is filled with familiar faces including Oscar Isaac, Jessica Chastain, David Oyelowo, and Albert Brooks. The picture has performed decently in limited release and expands nationwide tomorrow on a fairly low 818 screens. It’s difficult to see this breaking through and certainly Academy Awards nods would’ve assisted. The studio should feel great if this manages $5 million out of the gate, but I don’t see it happening.

A Most Violent Year opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: Round FOUR (December Edition)

We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.

As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.

Predicted Nominees

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Wild

Best Original Screenplay

No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Selma

Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.

Predicted Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Best Supporting Actor

The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.

Predicted Nominees

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Tom Wilkinson, Selma

Best Actress

This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.

Predicted Nominees

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor

In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.

Predicted Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Director

I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.

Predicted Nominees

Ana DuVernay, Selma

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Best Picture

Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl. 

Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Whiplash

And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!

 

Oscar Watch: A Most Violent Year

The Best Picture race took yet another turn today when the National Board of Review named JC Chandor’s early 80s set New York City crime thriller A Most Violent Year as its choice for film of the year. Chandor is the well-regarded director of both Margin Call and All is Lost. The picture stars Oscar Isaac, Jessica Chastain, Albert Brooks, and David Oyelowo. Critical reception has been outstanding as it rates 93% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.

How significant is a National Board of Review victory? Let’s go the stats as only two NBR winners in the last 25 years have not been nominated for Picture at the Oscars (1998’s Gods and Monsters and 2000’s Quills).

I have yet to include Year among my nine predicted nominees in past blog posts. That is highly likely to change when I do my next round of predictions (probably next week). While its nomination seems forthcoming, a win seems out of reach. Only eight of the last 25 years NBR winners have gone onto win the big prize and Year definitely seems well behind Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game, and Selma (and maybe some others).

As for other nominations, JC Chandor has improved his opportunity for a directing nod, as have Oscar Isaac for Actor and Jessica Chastain for Supporting Actress. Chastain seems the most probable right now, due to the more crowded fields in the other categories. In fact, one of Isaac’s main competitors is his Violent costar Oyelowo (whose nod seems assured for Selma). The film could also sneak into the Original Screenplay derby, which is also a packed race.

Any way you look at it – A Most Violent Year improved its Academy opportunities today with the NBR’s activity.