Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, based on the works of Tolkien, is the second feature in the Hobbit trilogy that began at this time last year. Starring Martin Freeman, Benedict Cumberbatch, Ian McKellen, Orlando Bloom, Evangeline Lilly, wizards, dragons, and others – Smaug opens this Friday.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey took in $84.6 million in its opening weekend in 2012 (it was released during the same December weekend as Smaug). That opening set the all-time record for the month of December and it’s a number its follow-up will attempt to improve upon.

So the main question is: can Smaug set the record for December? I’m a bit skeptical. For starters, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was not met with the universal acclaim that Jackson’s 2001-2003 Lord of the Rings trilogy received. Don’t get me wrong – Hobbit was a strong performer with that record setting debut and an eventual $303 million domestic gross. However, it is worth noting that all three Rings pics outperformed it.

One item in its favor: early reviews suggest that Smaug is better than its predecessor and that the pacing isn’t of the glacial quality that hindered Journey. This is a fairly tough prediction – it certainly wouldn’t shock me if Smaug opened larger than Journey. However, mixed reaction to Journey could lead to a slightly smaller opening. Anything below $75 million would be considered a bit of a letdown. I believe a debut in the late 70s/early 80s range is the most likely scenario.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug opening weekend prediction: $77.9 million

For my prediction on Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-box-office-prediction/