Tag: oprah winfrey

David Letterman’s Goodbye Begins

This evening brings the beginning of the end for the longest tenured late night host in the history of the television medium. After 33 legendary years, David Letterman’s final run of programs kicks off tonight with five and a half weeks and 28 shows left.

A CBS press release confirmed what many suspected: the final Dave shows will be a very star studded affair. Many Letterman regulars will make their pilgrimage over the next month and change (his swan song is Wednesday, May 20).

That impressive list includes Bill Murray, Oprah Winfrey, Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Howard Stern, Steve Martin, Jerry Seinfeld, Robert Downey Jr., Sarah Jessica Parker, Martin Short, Don Rickles, Ray Romano, George Clooney, Scarlett Johannson, Will Ferrell, Alec Baldwin, Michael Keaton, Jack Hanna, John Travolta, Bruce Willis, Tina Fey and Billy Crystal, among others. Not too shabby. Musical guests include Elvis Costello, Mumford and Sons, and Dave Matthews Band.

The press release promises more names not yet revealed over the last 28 hours of Letterman’s TV existence. Who could that be? Let’s start with the easy. Foo Fighters are Dave’s favorite band and it is likely they could be the final musical performance. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Dave’s late night brothers come to pay their respects. That list includes Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, Jon Stewart and Letterman’s successor Stephen Colbert. I also anticipate an appearance by Jay Leno – something that would truly be an event after their over 20 year history of being rivals and their battle for The Tonight Show after Dave’s idol Johnny Carson retired in 1992.

Furthermore, it wouldn’t surprise me to see politicos such as Hillary or Bill Clinton or even President Obama appear. I will have one more post timed to Letterman’s departure to pontificate on what his show has meant to me and, frankly, my sense of humor. It’s not insignificant.

Until then, it’s going to be an interesting few weeks of Dave bidding America farewell.

Selma Box Office Prediction

A serious Oscar hopeful expands nationwide this Friday as Selma opens. Focusing on the 1965 voting rights marches, the film casts David Oyelowo as Dr. Martin Luther King and the supporting cast includes Tom Wilkinson, Tim Roth, Carmen Ejogo and Oprah Winfrey, who also serves as a producer.

Selma is considered to be at the top of the list for potential Oscar winners. Director Ana DuVernay is likely to be the first African American woman to receive a nomination. Reviews have been strong and its Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 100%.

It’s easy to see where they’d be a wide interest and I expect Selma’s debut to be strong. My main challenge here: I’ve yet to see a count of screens for its expansion Friday. For now, I’ll assume a roll out of around 2000 screens. If that’s the case, I look for a per screen average similar to the last picture that Oprah was involved with, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. 

That would get in the high teens for its opening a week before Oscar nominations are revealed.

Selma opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million

For my Taken 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/taken-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Inherent Vice prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/inherent-vice-box-office-prediction/

The Hundred-Foot Journey Box Office Prediction

Oscar winner Helen Mirren stars in the comedy/drama The Hundred-Foot Journey from Lasse Hallstrom, director of The Cider House Rules. Focusing on an Indian family who relocate to France to open a restaurant only to be met with opposition from Mirren’s nearby restaurateur, it’s based on a 2010 novel and its TV ads have promoted its producers as much as the award winning star.

That’s because the producers include Steven Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey and ads have featured both extolling the film’s virtues. Journey is certainly attempting to appeal to adults tired of blockbusters and fans of the Oprah brand, which certainly isn’t insignificant. Strong reviews would be needed to propel this to hit status and, so far, they seem to be mixed. Opening on approximately 2000 screens – I’ll predict it will find slight counterprogramming success which should allow an opening gross just above double digits.

The Hundred-Foot Journey opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million

For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-box-office-prediction/

For my Into the Storm prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/into-the-storm-box-office-prediction/

For my Step Up: All In prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/step-up-all-in-box-office-prediction/

Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club Box Office Prediction

The Tyler Perry film factory rolls along this Friday with The Single Moms Club, a comedic drama that will attempt to appeal to the star’s female fans. Nia Long headlines a cast that include Amy Smart, Terry Crews, and the director himself.

Whether or not the film is a hit, Oprah Winfrey’s OWN network has already announced a television adaptation coming later this year. It’s actually been a lackluster last few months for Perry, as his Peeples and A Madea Christmas both failed to meet expectations. Perry is hoping that Single Moms can achieve roughly the same results as Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor which opened to $21 million around the same time last year. This is the fourth pic from his studio in less than a year, but it could be his last in a while as nothing else is currently in production.

The Single Moms Club, at press time, is scheduled to open on about 200 less screens than Temptation. It should reach roughly the same audience as that movie did and I’ll predict an opening in the high teens before the inevitable large second weekend drop-off that all his films suffer.

Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/need-for-speed-box-office-prediction/

 

This Day in Movie History: January 29

15 years ago Today in Movie History – January 29 – She’s All That surprised box office prognosticators with a big #1 opening at $16 million on its way to a $56 million domestic haul. Starring Freddie Prinze Jr. and Rachel Leigh Cook, the pic seemingly came out of nowhere but expertly appealed to its target audience and reaped the benefits. Costars included music stars Usher and Lil Kim, as well as Anna Paquin, Gabrielle Union, and the late Paul Walker.

As for birthdays, Oprah Winfrey is 60 today. Most of her fame comes from outside the silver screen, including having the most popular daytime talk show in history, starting her own network, and becoming a billionaire. However, she first rose to fame in Steven Spielberg’s commercial and critical hit drama The Color Purple, for which she earned a Supporting Actress Oscar nomination. Shortly after, her show would start and she wouldn’t venture into film for 13 years with Jonathan Demme’s commercially disappointing Beloved in 1998. It would be 15 more years for another Oprah appearance and her role as Forest Whitaker’s wife in last year’s Lee Daniels’ The Butler got her back into blockbuster territory. Many expected her to receive an Oscar nomination for her work in Butler, but it didn’t happen.

Heather Graham is 44 today. She first broke through in Gus Van Sant’s 1989 critical favorite Drugstore Cowboy. In 1997, she had a memorable role as “Roller Girl” in Boogie Nights and she’d go on to work with Mike Myers in his sequel Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me. Further box office success would follow years later with The Hangover. Other notable films: Scream 2, Two Girls and a Guy, Bowfinger, From Hell, and Anger Management.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the actresses:

Oprah Winfrey was in The Color Purple with Whoopi Goldberg

Whoopi Goldberg was in Soapdish with Robert Downey Jr.

Robert Downey Jr. was in Two Girls and a Guy with Heather Graham

And that’s today – January 29 – in Movie History!

Lee Daniels’ The Butler Movie Review

Lee Daniels’ The Butler has moments of genuine power and insight dealing with our nation’s civil rights history over the past near century. Spanning over 80 years in time, The Butler takes us from the picture’s central character working in the cotton fields of Georgia as a young boy to sitting in the White House as an old man waiting to meet with the first African-American President of the United States. In between those times, Cecil Gaines (Forest Whitaker) becomes quite familiar with 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, working as a butler from the Eisenhower administration through the Reagan administration.

The film is loosely based on true events and The Butler shifts its time between Cecil’s work experience and family life. For the work portion, we get a journey through several decades of political history from desegregation to the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to Vietnam to the South African apartheid movement. In many cases, these events coincide with Cecil’s family as his oldest son Louis (David Oyelowo) gets very politically involved in civil rights issues. The irony is not lost on the audience – his father works in the center of the  U.S. government but has an occupation where being seen and not heard is the rule. Oprah Winfrey is Cecil’s wife Gloria, a well-rounded character full of imperfections but also an enduring devotion to her husband.

The Butler is really centralized on the complicated relationship between Cecil and David. It is their dynamic that provide the picture’s best moments, as well as several between Cecil and Gloria. When screenwriter Danny Strong focuses his concentration on their storylines, the film is effective and often emotionally satisfying.

It’s the scenes in the White House that often fall far short of satisfying. For starters, director Daniels’ decision to cast recognizable actors as the Presidents backfires. Much of this is due to casting. We have Robin Williams as Eisenhower, James Marsden as JFK, Live Schrieber as LBJ, John Cusack as Nixon, and Alan Rickman as Reagan. None of them make much of an impression and most aren’t given enough screen time to make one anyway. Their casting serves as a distraction more than anything else and we feel like we’re watching the actor, not the POTUS character they’re playing. The same cannot be said for Winfrey, who is outstanding. She reminds us that she probably would’ve had a great movie career over the last couple of decades if not for that whole building a billion dollar multimedia empire thing.

Even with casting quibbles set aside, where The Butler sometimes fails is in its journey through history that could often be described as “cliffs notes”. There simply isn’t the proper time to give these important political issues any real fleshing out. Some of these scenes showing the struggle of the civil rights movement, especially those involving Louis, are powerful. And we do get involved with the characters of Gaines family and we can thank some excellent acting from Whitaker, Winfrey, and Oyelowo a lot for that.

The Butler‘s finest moments are mixed with a lot of disappointing ones, including some unfortunate casting choices and its uneven and too episodic screenplay. It’s the writing of the Gaines family in several scenes and the first-rate performances of the actors playing them that helps out a lot.

*** (out of four)

2014 Oscar Predictions: Todd’s FINAL Predictions

The time has come to make my FINAL predictions for the Oscars. Nominations will be out on Thursday and I’m predicting every category that involves feature films. Therefore, the animated and documentary short films will not be predicted. I have written extensively about why I’m predicting certain movies, performers, and so on. That time is over. Here is my final listing of what and who I believe will be honored. The predictions are written by order of chances of nomination and I am listing runner-ups for each race in case some of my picks don’t pan out (which is guaranteed to happen). And here we go:

BEST PICTURE

1. 12 Years a Slave

2. Gravity

3. American Hustle

4. Nebraska

5. Inside Llewyn Davis

6. Her

7. Captain Phillips

8. The Wolf of Wall Street

9. Dallas Buyer’s Club

Runner-Ups:

10. Saving Mr. Banks

11. Philomena

12. Blue Jasmine

13. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

14. August: Osage County

15. Lone Survivor

16. Fruitvale Station

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

3. David O. Russell, American Hustle

4. Alexander Payne, Nebraska

5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner-Ups:

6. Spike Jonze, Her

7. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips

8. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST ACTOR

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska

3. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

4. Robert Redford, All is Lost

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner-Ups:

6. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

7. Christian Bale, American Hustle

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Her

9. Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

BEST ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity

3. Judi Dench, Philomena

4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Runner-Ups:

6. Amy Adams, American Hustle

7. Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour

8. Brie Larson, Short Term 12

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

3. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

4. Daniel Bruhl, Rush

5. Will Forte, Nebraska

Runner-Ups:

6. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

7. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

8. James Gandolfini, Enough Said

9. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

3. June Squibb, Nebraska

4. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Runner-Ups:

6. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

7. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County

8. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. American Hustle

2. Nebraska

3. Inside Llewyn Davis

4. Her

5. Blue Jasmine

Runner-Ups:

6. Dallas Buyer’s Club

7. Gravity

8. Fruitvale Station

9. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

10. Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. 12 Years a Slave

2. Philomena

3. Before Midnight

4. The Wolf of Wall Street

5. Captain Phillips

Runner-Ups:

6. August: Osage County

7. The Book Thief

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Frozen

2. The Wind That Rises

3. Ernest&Celestine

4. Monsters University

5. Despicable Me 2

Runner-Ups:

6. The Croods

7. A Letter to Mono

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. 12 Years a Slave

2. The Great Gatsby

3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

4. Gravity

5. The Invisible Woman

Runner-Ups:

6. Saving Mr. Banks

7. Inside Llewyn Davis

8. Oz the Great and Powerful

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Rush

4. Inside Llewyn Davis

5. Captain Phillips

Runner-Ups:

6. Nebraska

7. All is Lost

8. Prisoners

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Great Gatsby

2. American Hustle

3. 12 Years a Slave

4. The Invisible Woman

5. The Book Thief

Runner-Ups:

6. Saving Mr. Banks

7. Oz the Great and Powerful

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. American Hustle

4. Captain Phillips

5. Rush

Runner-Ups:

6. The Wolf of Wall Street

7. Inside Llewyn Davis

8. Lone Survivor

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. American Hustle

2. The Lone Ranger

3. The Great Gatsby

Runner-Ups:

4. Dallas Buyer’s Club

5. Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Gravity

2. Rush

3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

4. Captain Phillips

5. Lone Survivor

Runner-Ups:

6. All is Lost

7. Inside Llewyn Davis

8. 12 Years a Slave

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Gravity

2. Captain Phillips

3. Rush

4. Pacific Rim

5. All is Lost

Runner-Ups:

6. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

7. Lone Survivor

8. Man of Steel

9. World War Z

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Gravity

2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

3. Pacific Rim

4. Iron Man 3

5. World War Z

Runner-Ups:

6. Star Trek Into Darkness

7. Elysium

8. Oblivion

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. 12 Years a Slave

2. Gravity

3. The Book Thief

4. Saving Mr. Banks

5. Her

Runner-Ups:

6. Monsters University

7. All is Lost

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Let It Go” from Frozen

2. “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

3. “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby

4. “In the Middle of the Night” from Lee Daniels’ The Butler

5. “The Moon Song” from Her

Runner-Ups:

6. “So You Know What It’s Like” from Short Term 12

7. “Rise Up” from Epic

8. “Sweeter than Fiction” from One Chance

I’m not listing alternates for the final two predicted categories, mostly because I’m supremely not confident with my limited knowledge for these races.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Broken Circle Breakdown

The Grandmaster

The Great Beauty

The Hunt

Omar

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Act of Killing

Blackfish

The Square

Stories We Tell

20 Feet from Stardom

This means my predictions would garner the following number of nominations for these pictures:

10 Nominations – 12 Years a Slave, Gravity

8 Nominations – American Hustle

6 Nominations – Captain Phillips, Nebraska

5 Nominations – Rush

4 Nominations – The Great Gatsby, Her, The Wolf of Wall Street

3 Nominations – Dallas Buyer’s Club, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis

2 Nominations – All is Lost, August: Osage County, Blue Jasmine, The Book Thief, Frozen, The Invisible Woman, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Pacific Rim, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks

1 Nomination – Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Lone Survivor, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, World War Z

And there you have Todd’s final Oscar predictions. I will have reaction in a blog post Thursday once nominations are released and include a tally of how I did!

2014 Oscar Predictions: Todd’s Picks for Early January

And we’re off with my next to last round of Oscar predictions before they’re announced on Thursday, January 16th. The plan is to do my final predictions, most likely either on Sunday the 12th or Monday the 13th. These new picks reflect changes in four of the six top categories. Let’s get to it shall we?

BEST PICTURE

I’ve stayed consistent with predicting that nine movies will get nominated. The change here is that I’m including Dallas Buyer’s Club for the first time as I believe it’s gotten enough precursor momentum to get in. That means I had to take something out and Saving Mr. Banks has been dropped. As I see it, the race is still a battle between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity for the win with American Hustle as a possible spoiler.

Predictions:

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyer’s Club

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

One change here: I believe the polarizing reaction to The Wolf of Wall Street might leave Martin Scorsese out in this competitive category. So he’s out and Spike Jonze, riding a wave of momentum for Her, is in. Like Picture, this race should come down to Slave‘s Steve McQueen and Gravity‘s Alfonso Cuaron for the victory with yet again Hustle‘s Russell as possible spoiler.

Predictions:

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Spike Jonze, Her

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

BEST ACTOR

This is seriously such a loaded category. In any other year, I’d be predicting Christian Bale in American Hustle, Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler or Joaquin Phoenix in Her. None of them make the cut. Conventional wisdom is that this is a six man race and only five make the cut. Last round of predictions, I had Tom Hanks’ work in Captain Phillips left out, but now he’s back in. This came down to a decision between whether to leave out Leonardo DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street or Robert Redford in All is Lost. For the first time in my predictions, it’s Redford that I’ve got drawing the short straw. I believe Chiwetel Ejiofor, Bruce Dern, or Matthew McConaughey could win.

Predictions:

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST ACTRESS

Prediction wise, this category has remained the most stable and I have no changes this round either. As for who will win, Cate Blanchett is emerging as the clear favorite though Sandra Bullock has a shot.

Predictions:

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is likely the most unpredictable category that is capable of producing a surprise and my new picks reflect that. Jared Leto is the frontrunner to win and Michael Fassbender appears a lock for nomination. After that, all bets are off. I’m taking out Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street and Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks. I’m keeping in my Bradley Cooper for American Hustle prediction. Additions to my list: Daniel Bruhl, who’s picked up momentum for his role in Rush. As for the fifth slot, it could have been Hanks, Hill, the late James Gandolfini in Enough Said, Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips, or Harrison Ford in 42. Like I said, I believe a real surprise nomination could surface here and that’s why I’m picking former SNL alum Will Forte in Nebraska.

Predictions:

Daniel Bruhl, Rush

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Will Forte, Nebraska

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like the lead actress race, I’ve got no changes to report here either. This should still come down to Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence for the win.

Predictions:

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

I’ll be back with last round of nomination picks soon enough!

Oscar Predictions: Todd’s December Take

Well, folks, we’ve arrived at my December predictions for the six major categories at the Oscars! And there’s been significant changes in some categories. There’s not one category that’s remained the same from my last go-round of guesses. A lot has happened since my November predictions. Every major contender has now screened with critics. Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been announced. And, per usual, things are unclear. Don’t get me wrong – there’s certain films and actors that seem destined for nominations. However, no field is close to being set. Not even close.

For the first time in making my predictions, I am predicting the winner in each race. I would expect at least one more round (more likely two) prior to nominations being announced in mid January. Here we go!

BEST PICTURE

Todd’s Predictions –

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Saving Mr. Banks

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Analysis: Yes, I am keeping the number at nine predicted pictures (there could be anywhere from five to ten). This new round of predictions brings in three new films – Her, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks – and takes out three – All is Lost, Blue Jasmine, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Other possible nominees include Dallas Buyer’s Club, August: Osage County, Lone Survivor, Philomena, Rush, Prisoners and Fruitvale Station.

Predicted Winner: Conventional wisdom is that the race is between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle as potential spoilers. My gut tells me (at least for now) that 12 Years a Slave is in the driver’s seat and it is my current prediction to win.

BEST DIRECTOR

Todd’s Predictions –

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Analyis: As I see it, only Cuaron and McQueen are surefire nominees and should compete with each other for the win. Let’s not forget that last year’s Director nominees were a total shocker to everyone when Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) did not pick up expected nominations. My predictions today reflect putting Payne and Scorsese in and taking J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost) and Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) out. Chandor seems highly unlikely to get a nod at this point, but any combination of Greengrass, Spike Jonze (Her), the Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis), or John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks) could get in.

Predicted Winner: As mentioned, Cuaron and McQueen are the frontrunners. I could easily see a scenario where 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture and Cuaron still nabs Director for the amazing technical achievement that Gravity was. It’s tempting, but for now, my prediction is that Picture and Director will match up and McQueen wins.

BEST ACTOR

Todd’s Predictions –

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Analysis: This is shaping up to be by far the most fascinating race to watch. My current predictions put Dern and DiCaprio in and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Joaquin Phoenix (Her) out. And don’t count out Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Christian Bale (American Hustle), or Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis). Frankly, I would say Ejiofor is the only nominee I would be shocked at if he’s not nominated. The crazy thing is – I could see any one of the five predicted nominees actually win and that’s rare. This is an extraordinarily tough call, but right now I’m staying on the 12 Years bandwagon and going with Ejiofor.

BEST ACTRESS

Todd’s Predictions –

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Analysis and Predicted Winner: Just one change here – Amy Adams (American Hustle) out and Emma Thompson in. This looks to be a showdown between Blanchett (who’s picking up the majority of critics awards) and Bullock (the most popular actress starring in a wildly popular film). The fact that Bullock won four years ago leads me to give Blanchett a slight edge and she’s my prediction. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said), as well as Adams.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Todd’s Predictions –

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Analysis: Of the five predicted, I am only confident about Fassbender and Leto. My current predictions have Hanks in and his Captain Phillips costar Barkhad Abdi out. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abdi, John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Will Forte (Nebraska), Harrison Ford (42), or the late James Gandolfini (Enough Said) nominated.

Predicted Winner: A 12 Years sweep could give Fassbender the prize. However, my prediction is Jared Leto for his acclaimed work in Dallas Buyer’s Club.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Analysis: Voters might not be able to resist nominating Julia so she’s in and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) is out. Other not predicted contenders could be Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station) and Margo Martindale (August: Osage County). This race appears to be coming down to Lawrence and Nyong’o.

Predicted Winner: Much like Supporting Actor, a 12 Years night should include Nyong’o. And then came Jennifer Lawrence, who’s having an incredible film year with her Best Actress Oscar win for Silver Linings Playbook and headlining the massive hit The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Her performance in Hustle is garnering raves. Could she win two years in a row? Between her and Nyong’o, this seems like a coin toss at this juncture. For now, I’ll predict the 12 Years momentum gives Nyong’o the win.

And there you have it. To recap, my current winner predictions:

PICTURE – 12 Years a Slave

DIRECTOR – Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

ACTOR – Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

ACTRESS – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

SUPPORTING ACTOR – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Oscar Predictions: Todd’s Third Take

Here we are with November arriving and that means it’s time for my third round of predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the six major categories at the Oscars. Let’s break them down by category, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

I am still sticking with my estimate of nine pictures getting recognition – just like the two previous years. The family drama August: Osage County seems to be losing steam so it’s the only pic I’ve taken out. I’ve replaced it with Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. The slot could just as easily go to John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks or Alexander Payne’s Nebraska. Other contenders that didn’t make the cut: Her, Blue is the Warmest Color, Fruitvale Station, Dallas Buyer’s Club, and Lone Survivor.

The predicted nine:

All is Lost

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron are absolute shoo-ins for nominations. After that, things get complicated. I’ve taken out Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis and replaced them with Paul Greengrass for his work in Captain Phillips. David O. Russell and his efforts in American Hustle remain another prediction. I’m still (somewhat stubbornly) including J.C. Chandor for All is Lost, even though few others have him in. There were simply so many surprises in the Director category last year that I have to include a surprise pick. Other contenders that didn’t make the cut: Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street, Alexander Payne for Nebraska, Lee Daniels for The Butler, Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine. and John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks.

Predictions:

J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

David O. Russell, American Hustle

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here from a month ago: I’m including Joaquin Phoenix as a somewhat surprise pick for Spike Jonze’s Her and taking out Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. More contenders who missed the five: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street), and Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis).

Predictions:

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Robert Redford, All is Lost

BEST ACTRESS

This is the only category where I have no changes from a month ago. This still seems to be a close race between Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock. I was tempted to put Emma Thompson in for Saving Mr. Banks on here but didn’t feel comfortable taking any of the other five out right now. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Kate Winslet (Labor Day), and Julie Delpy (Before Midnight).

Predictions:

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This category seems to be the most wide open at press time. The only surefire nominee in my mind is Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave. I’ve taken out the late James Gandolfini for Enough Said and replaced him with Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. Others who didn’t make it but could easily be included later: Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks, John Goodman for Inside Llewyn Davis, Matthew McConaughey for Mud (especially if he’s not recognized for Dallas Buyer’s Club in lead Actor), Daniel Bruhl for Rush, Josh Brolin in Labor Day, Jake Gyllenhall in Prisoners, and Harrison Ford in 42.

Predictions:

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Many believe this race will come down to Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave vs. Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Both Margo Martindale and Julia Roberts in August: Osage County are possible, but I’ve taken Martindale out and replaced her with June Squibb in Nebraska as the only change. Other possible nominees: Sarah Paulson in 12 Years a Slave and Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station.

Predictions:

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And there you have it – round 3 is in the books! I’ll be back with round 4 in the coming weeks! Please note: my next round of predictions (around Thanksgiving most likely) will include my first forecast for winners in each race. Stay tuned.