Guy Ritchie is back in action comedy mode when The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare arrives in theaters April 19th. The WWII era pic stars Henry Cavill with supporting work from Eiza González, Alan Ritchson, Henry Golding, Alex Pettyfer, Hero Fiennes Tiffin, and Cary Elwes.
The writer/director is no stranger to the genre. On a side note, Ritchie has been a busy man as Warfare marks his sixth feature in as many years. Similarly marketed 2019’s The Gentleman opened in line with expectations at just over $10 million. On the other hand, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre stalled with a mere $3.1 million in its start.
I suspect this may open in between two Ritchie projects in the mid single digits.
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant finds Jake Gyllenhaal back in Jarhead territory in this war thriller. It marks Ritchie’s second release of 2023 after Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre flopped last month. Formerly titled The Interpreter, costars include Dar Salim, Alexander Ludwig, Antony Starr, Emily Beecham, and Jonny Lee Miller.
Gyllenhaal’s previous action flick was a year ago with Ambulance. It performed below expectations with an $8.6 million start. Ritchie’s aforementioned Guerre managed only $3 million in its unfortunate opening.
The Covenant doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. I think it’ll have a higher premiere than the director’s last effort, but lower than its lead’s predecessor.
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
Ghostface terrorizes NYC in Scream VI, Adam Driver fights dinosaurs in 65, and Woody Harrelson is ordered to coach a basketball team with intellectual disabilities in Champions. They are the newcomers hitting screens this Friday and my detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:
Just as Creed III smashed its franchise best record this past weekend (more on that below), Scream VI could be poised for the same. To do so, it would need to slash past the $34 million achieved by Scream 3 in 2000. I’m projecting it will do so with room to spare.
Creed III should fall to second in round 2. A mid to high 50s decline could give it a clean $25 million after its fantastic start.
65 appears likely for a third place start. Yet I’ve got the dino action pic barely topping $10 million. Considering its reported $90 million price tag, that would be a troubling premiere for the Sony property.
I’m not anticipating much out of Champions and my estimate ties it with the third frame of Jesus Revolution. That would mean holdovers Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Cocaine Bear would be in a close contest for the four and five spots.
Here’s how I envision it looking:
1. Scream VI
Predicted Gross: $42.6 million
2. Creed III
Predicted Gross: $25 million
3. 65
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
5. Cocaine Bear
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
6. Jesus Revolution
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
7. Champions
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (March 3-5)
The month of March began with a potent punch at multiplexes as Creed III amassed $58.3 million. I way lowballed it at $39.2 million. Marking the directorial debut of its star Michael B. Jordan, it easily outpaced its predecessors. For context – Creed II, over the five-day Thanksgiving frame in 2018, made $55 million. In a month filled with potential blockbusters, the return of Adonis a promising pace.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania fell to second after two weeks on top with $12.8 million. I was more generous at $14.6 million. The 60% drop was another troubling development for the threequel. Its total is $187 million.
Cocaine Bear was third with $11.1 million in its sophomore outing compared to my $13.2 million take. The 52% decline isn’t too shabby for its genre as the ten-day tally is $41 million.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village started in line with expectations in fourth with $10.1 million. I was close with $9.8 million. Expect a hefty dip in the range of 70% or more coming up.
Jesus Revolution rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $8.4 million. I had it raised higher at $11.3 million. The $30 million two-week gross remains rock solid.
Finally, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre re-teaming Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham meekly rolled out in seventh with $3.1 million (I said $4 million).
Creed III looks to KO all competitors as the Japanese animated episodic effort Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village and Guy Ritchie’s action comedy Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Michael B. Jordan makes his directorial debut in the third feature in the Creed franchise and ninth in the Rocky cinematic universe. It is the first not to feature Rocky himself Sylvester Stallone. However, reviews are strong and I see no reason why this wouldn’t continue the muscular grosses. The first two Creed flicks opened over long Thanksgiving frames. Part III could manage the highest three-day start at just under $40 million.
Swordsmith is a head scratcher. In 2021, Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba the Movie: Mugen Train astonished forecasters with $21 million in its first weekend. Swordsmith is not a sequel. Instead it combines episodes from a TV show related to the franchise. I’ve yet to see a theater count so that could alter my take. If it manages close to half of what Train accomplished, it would place in the top five.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, the latest collaboration between Ritchie and Jason Statham, seems like it is being dumped into multiplexes and my meager $4 million projection leaves it in sixth.
As for holdovers, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania experienced a massive second weekend dip (more on that below). The third frame drop-off shouldn’t be as disastrous (perhaps a bit over 50%). Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution both over performed in their premieres. The Revolution sophomore decline may only be in the high 20s with Cocaine being cut in the low to mid 40s.
Here’s how I envision the top six looking:
1. Creed III
Predicted Gross: $39.2 million
2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
3. Cocaine Bear
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Jesus Revolution
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba– To the Swordsmith Village
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
6. Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (February 24-26)
The #1 spot came without bragging rights as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania suffered the largest second frame fall of all the 31 MCU entries. At 70%, the Paul Rudd threequel made $31.9 million. I was slightly more generous at $34.2 million. The ten-day tally is $167 million and it will be the best earner of the Ant-Man trilogy. It still scored a record that Disney/MCU can’t be thrilled about.
Universal, on the other hand, can celebrate their marketing campaign for Cocaine Bear as it paid off with $23.2 million for second place. That’s well above the rosiest predictions and considerably beyond my call of $14.3 million.
Faith-based drama Jesus Revolution continued over performances for the genre at $15.8 million in third. I was more skeptical with only $8.7 million. With an A+ Cinemascore, this could be blessed with smallish declines in the coming weeks.
Avatar: The Way of Water was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring the eleven week gross to $665 million.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rounded out the top five with $4.1 million. I went with $4.6 million and the animated sequel has amassed $173 million.
Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham’s violently comedic cinematic partnership continues on March 3rd with Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. The spy pic reunites the director and lead nearly two years after their fourth collaboration Wrath of Man. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, and Hugh Grant (who has appeared in Ritchie’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Gentlemen).
Fortune has not been paved with a smooth road to domestic release. It was first slated for stateside distribution in early 2022. However, the film’s depiction of Ukrainian baddies scuttled the premiere due to the nation’s conflict with Russia. Lionsgate picked up the rights and recently announced the early March output. It has already been out in numerous territories with $30 million in the bank. Reviews are so-so with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This hasn’t had much time for a spirited marketing campaign. In May of 2021, Wrath of Man managed just over $8 million when theaters were deep in the midst of the pandemic. However, it debuted on nearly 3000 screens while Fortune is pegged for around 2000.
There’s also Creed III which should siphon away plenty of potential moviegoers. I believe the tale of Fortune‘s gross will be a mid single digits start.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre opening weekend prediction: $4 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 