Tag: One Life

77th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.

Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/6

Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.

Actress

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 3/6

More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

How I Did: 4/6

Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/6

Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

How I Did: 2/5

Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 3/4

As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.

British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 9/10

My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.

Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

How I Did: 1/5

Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did 4/5

Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is Oppenheimer.

Makeup and Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.

That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:

13 Noininations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

9 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro

6 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall

5 Nominations

Barbie, Saltburn

4 Nominations

Napoleon

3 Nominations

How to Have Sex, Past Lives

2 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka

I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.

77th BAFTA Nominations Predictions

This Thursday, nominations for the British Academy Film Awards (commonly known as BAFTA) will be unveiled prior to its February 18th airdate. After a busy precursor frame this past week, all eyes will be on BAFTA as we finalize our Oscar forecast for the big announcement in seven days.

As I do with other precursors, I’m giving you my picks along with an alternate. With the BAFTAs, there’s a mix of numbers for the races. Most are five though directing and the acting derbies are six with ten for Outstanding British Film and 4 for Animated Feature.

Got all that? Let’s get to it!

Film

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Alternate: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flowe Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Margot Robbie, Barbie

Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers

Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Past Lives

Saltburn

Alternate: How to Have Sex

Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Casting

All of Us Strangers

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Saltburn

Alternate: The Holdovers

Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

British Film

All of Us Strangers

How to Have Sex

Napoleon

One Life

Poor Things

Rye Lane

Saltburn

Scrapper

Wonka

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Old Oak

Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

The End We Start From

How to Have Sex

Polite Society

Rye Lane

Scrapper

Alternate: Is There Anybody Out There?

Film Not in English Language

Anatomy of a Fall

The Boy and the Heron

Fallen Leaves

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Society of the Snow

Documentary

20 Days in Mariupol

American Symphony

Beyond Utopia

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Wham!

Alternate: The Pigeon Tunnel

Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Maestro

Costume Design

Barbie

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Wonka

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Barbie

Makeup and Hair

Barbie

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Priscilla

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Original Score

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Saltburn

Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Special Visual Effects

The Creator

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

That works out to the following number of nominations for these films:

15 Nominations

Oppenheimer

13 Nominations

Poor Things

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Barbie

6 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Maestro, Napoleon

3 Nominations

The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, One Life, Rye Lane, Scrapper, Wonka

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Color Purple, The Creator, The End We Start From, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Nimona, Polite Society, Priscilla, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

Oscar Predictions: Freud’s Last Session

Sony Pictures will release Freud’s Last Session on December 22nd. It premiered last week at the AFI Fest. Matt Brown directs the adaptation of Mark St. Germain’s play which imagines a fictional meeting between Sigmund Freud (Anthony Hopkins) and C.S. Lewis (Matthew Goode). Discussions on faith and psychology naturally follow.

The two-hander has drawn mixed reviews thus far (not enough for a Rotten Tomatoes score). While the script is being criticized and this will not generate any BP attention, there is the matter of Sir Anthony.

32 years after winning Best Actor for The Silence of the Lambs and three years after taking it again for The Father, the legend is unsurprisingly receiving praise for his work. At one time, I thought his awards viability could be stronger for One Life (which played the fest circuit this fall). However, its release date was recently slated for 2024.

With the so-so reviews, I suspect Hopkins won’t factor into this year’s leading man derby as it’s already stacked with likelier contenders from Bradley Cooper (Maestro) to Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) to Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and more. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscar Predictions: September 23rd Edition

To say that September has given us plenty to think about when it comes to Oscar speculation is a massive understatement. Of course, it’s always been this way with the many titles premiering at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals. Those fests cause the stock of certain pictures and performers to rise and fall.

In the past week alone, there’s been lots of big news. It was announced that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will vie for lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress (where she was seen as a strong favorite to win).

Then the nation of France shocked us by announcing that they’re selecting The Taste of Things to compete in International Feature Film instead of Anatomy of a Fall, which was also looked at as a frontrunner.

Finally, it was confirmed that Bob Marley: One Love will not be receiving a limited December release. Instead it’ll drop in February 2024 so we can officially write off Kingsley Ben-Adir’s chances for this year.

For now, I’m still predicting that Anatomy will materialize in the Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay races. I am dropping its director Justine Triet from my projected five.

As for the Gladstone news, I’m slotting her right behind Emma Stone (Poor Things) in the lead derby. Gladstone’s disappearance in Supporting Actress causes Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to become #1 (I’d had Gladstone in first for months prior to the surprising announcement). Viola Davis (Air) is back in my five due to the developments.

Readers of the blog know that over the past few days, I did individual posts updating Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I also whittled BP down from 25 to 15 possibilities and the others from 15 to 10.

With Barbie‘s announced move to Original Screenplay, it moves to #1 over Past Lives. In Adapted, festival love propels Poor Things to the top spot over Killers of the Flower Moon.

A noteworthy Actress alteration besides Gladstone joining the quintet is Barbie herself (Margot Robbie) making the cut. Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are now on the outside looking in.

Here’s where I have it shaking out in my first full predictions in nearly a month!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-3)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (E)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Origin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – moved to Best Actress

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay

2. Past Lives (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Air (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 3) (-3)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Napoleon

The Boy and the Heron

The Book of Clarence

The Iron Claw

A Thousand and One

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predited Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 15) (+10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Origin (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barbie – moved to Original Screenplay

One Life

BlackBerry

Next Goal Wins

The Nickel Boys

Dumb Money

The Killer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Delinquents (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Promised Land (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Il capitano (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Monster

The Boy and the Heron

La Chimera

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia

They Shot the Piano Player

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Every Body (PR: 4) (-5)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Life

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

The Killer

The Color Purple

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Golda (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Beau is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Killer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

One Life

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (E)

8. “High Life” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10 (+1)

10. “Dance The Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Steal the Show” from Elemental

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Ferrari (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Creator

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

The Little Mermaid

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

4 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, American Fiction, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Wish, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Orlando, My Political Biography, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, 20 Days in Mariupol

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Picture Race (September 18th)

My closer looks at six high profile races for the 96th Academy Awards culminates with, of course, Best Picture. If you missed my posts over the last few days on the four acting derbies and Best Director, you can access them here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Director Race (September 17th Edition)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actress Race (September 14th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actor Race (September 12th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

Since my last look at the BP race on August 28th, we have experienced the Venice, Toronto, and Telluride Film Festivals. They have provided lots of information as to whether certain contenders are legit or not so much.

That said, it has not changed my top 2 selections of Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer. I have, on the other hand, switched Oppenheimer to first place with Moon in the runner-up spot.

The movie that rose the most of my predicted group is Poor Things, which won the Venice Film Festival and positioned itself as a serious threat to take the top prize. It vaults six spots from 9th to 3rd.

Then there’s American Fiction. Just yesterday, it received the People’s Choice Awards at Toronto. As I discussed yesterday on the blog, 14 of the past 15 winners of that honor ended up nabbing a BP nom. Fiction is still a coin toss in my view. At the moment, I’m including it in the selected ten. Same goes for The Holdovers which was first runner-up for People’s Choice. Those TIFF favorites are in at the expense of The Zone of Interest and Air.

I am winnowing the possible nominees from 25 to 15 and here’s where I have the BP standings post festivals:

Predicted Nominees

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Poor Things (PR: 9) (+6)

4. Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Barbie (PR: 8) (+3)

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Maestro (PR: 5) (-4)

10. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Air (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Origin (PR: 24) (+11)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Ferrari

The Killer

May December

Asteroid City

One Life

Next Goal Wins

Rustin

The Nickel Boys

Dumb Money

The Book of Clarence

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actor Race (September 12th)

At this impossibly early stage of the Oscar predicting calendar, one could actually make a decent argument that the final five of the Best Actor category could be set. That might seem like a silly thing to say, but it’s entirely possible that the quintet I have ranked 1-5 end up being the contenders. We have arrived at the leading gentlemen in my deep dives into six major categories at the 96th Academy Awards. If you missed my write-ups on the supporting derbies, you can access them here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)

The Venice and Telluride fests and the ongoing one in Toronto have shed light on some hopefuls and increased their chances. They’ve also winnowed the field in my opinion. Adam Driver probably won’t be feted for Ferrari nor is Michael Fassbender looking likely for The Killer or Next Goal Wins. Barry Keoghan has a better shot than either of them for Saltburn, but the film’s divisive reaction may hurt him. On the other hand, Andrew Scott has established himself as a serious possibility for All of Us Strangers. So have Anthony Hopkins in One Life and (perhaps to a lesser degree) Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction.

Yet I can’t shake the strange feeling that the five might look like a combo of already screened and/or released titles (including one at Cannes). There’s Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer and Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon. And the fests of the past few days have showcased the strong chances for Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). That said, I’d say there’s not a clear frontrunner of the group.

It can’t be that simple, can it? Probably not. Yet it’s a sturdy group to bet on at the moment. We’re still waiting to see about Joaquin Phoenix as Napoleon or Kingsley Ben-Adir in Bob Marley: One Love. And perhaps Teo Yoo (Past Lives) or Matt Damon (Air) could materialize for the duo’s already released efforts.

I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Adam Driver, Ferrari

Matt Damon, Air

David Strathairn, A Little Prayer

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Actress is up next!

Oscar Predictions: One Life

One Life has had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival as it seeks one nomination in particular from awards voters. From director James Hawes, it stars Anthony Hopkins as the real-life rescuer of Jewish children before the atrocities of the Holocaust. Johnny Flynn plays the hunger version of his character with Helena Bonham Carter, Lena Olin, and Jonathan Pryce in the supporting cast.

Early reviews put it at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. The stateside release date is TBD though it should be out by year’s end. The bulk of the reaction indicates this is not a BP contender. However, much praise is being heaped on Hopkins. This seems like the type of role that might be bait for the Academy.

As has been discussed in the past couple of weeks, the lead actor race is shaping up to be a barnburner. Surefire contenders (to name just five) include Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). Had Hopkins not won Best Actor just three years ago for The Father (his second after 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs), I might list him with that quintet. As of now, he could get in but I think he’s on the outside. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)

My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).

One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).

We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.

At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin

Best Actor is up next!

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

Beginning today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards slated for March 2024. Ardent readers of this here blog know that I typically update my predictions every 10-14 days.

Yet there’s been some major developments in the past week and there will be more in the week or so to come. The Telluride Film Festival just happened. Venice is ongoing and Toronto starts tonight. In other words, a whole bunch of Oscar hopefuls have just screened or are about to screen.

So for these closer looks at the four acting derbies, Best Director, and Best Picture – I’m obviously keeping all that in mind with the heavy buzz emanating from Colorado, Italy, and Ontario.

We begin with Supporting Actor. In this competition, 3 of the biggest contenders saw their movies released (or screen) prior to the September trio of festivals. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) are, of course, part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Both appear highly likely to be nominated. I could see a narrative develop where Downey Jr. is honored for his body of work (in addition to his strong work in the film itself) and ends up taking the trophy. This would mark his third nom after 1992’s Chaplin and 2008’s Tropic Thunder. He’s currently my #1.

A similar victory could happen with Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (which first screened at Cannes in May). The acting legend is a two-time Oscar winner, but it’s been 43 years since he took the lead prize for Raging Bull. You have go back to 49 years for his first statue in Supporting for The Godfather Part II. A Downey Jr. or De Niro statue could be contingent on which of their movies wins BP (if one of them does). The momentum from the top prize could dwindle down to either one of them.

Before its rapturous unveiling at Venice, there was uncertainty as to whether Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe would be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender for Poor Things. The answer might be both. Ruffalo could have the slight edge, but both could make the dance. That wouldn’t be all that surprising. Three of the past four Supporting Actor quintets have seen double nominees from the same feature – The Irishman in 2019 for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, The Power of the Dog in 2021 for Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and last year for The Banshees of Inisherin with Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. It’s worth mentioning that none of the six nominees took the prize.

Speaking of double nominees, it isn’t out of the question that the aforementioned Plemons could materialize for Flower Moon. Same goes for Matt Damon in Oppenheimer. I suspect they ultimately don’t make it.

Past Lives is an acclaimed drama that seems destined for a BP spot. John Magaro is sure to be placed here and he could absolutely get into the final five. There is a question as to whether his costar Teo Yoo is campaigned for in lead or here. I’ve got him in the former as of now.

If Air overperforms, I wouldn’t totally discount Ben Affleck (he’s never had an acting mention). Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry has drawn plenty of raves. He’ll win some critics prizes and could be a trendy pick for inclusion. Charles Melton was singled out for his work alongside Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore at Cannes.

Dominic Sessa could see himself in for The Holdovers (especially if Alexander Payne dramedy’s cast mates Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph make their categories).

The Maestro acting campaigns should go to Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper in lead and not Matt Bomer. Saltburn reactions suggest any attention will go to star Barry Keoghan and not Richard E. Grant.

And there are unseen hopefuls in the wings. Colman Domingo in The Color Purple immediately comes to mind. His nom might not happen because he’s almost surely going to make the lead Actor’s five with Rustin.

So where’s that leave us? I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!

Predicted Nominees

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Ben Affleck, Air

Matt Bomer, Maestro

Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Supporting Actress is up next!

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 28th Edition

You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.

How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.

In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.

I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).

Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers, Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.

In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.

With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).

You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)

17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)

19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)

23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)

11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)

12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Golda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)

12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)

12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)

13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)

15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)

10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)

7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Black Ice

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Wonka

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Blue Beetle

That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

8 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

Napoleon

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December, Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol