A couple of months back, Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine played the festival circuit prior to its release and saw its awards prospects tumble. Benny’s brother Josh (they made Good Time and Uncut Gems together among others) goes solo with Marty Supreme on Christmas Day. After a “surprise” showing at the New York Film Festival last month, the review embargo is lifted today. Unlike Machine, Marty should be a smash at the Oscars and elsewhere.
The 1950s set dramedy features Timothée Chalamet in the title role (as an ambitious ping pong star) with an eclectic supporting cast including Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary (of Shark Tank fame), Tyler Okonma (better known as Tyler, the Creator), Abel Ferrara, and Fran Drescher.
Early reaction from the Big Apple indicated this should be a major player at the Academy Awards and today’s critical reaction solidifies the buzz. Rotten Tomatoes is at 96% with 88 on Metacritic. Supreme has been perched in my top 5 possibilities for Best Picture throughout 2025 and that appears to be the right call. Like One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, and Sentimental Value – this is a BP prediction that you should feel comfortable writing in ink.
That same logic certainly applies to Chalamet in what many write-ups are calling career best work. He will turn 30 two days after Supreme‘s release, but he is going for nomination #3 after 2017’s Call Me by Your Name and last year’s A Complete Unknown. I’ve had him ranked 1st for months based on the notion that this seems like an awards friendly role. Chalamet was also the likely runner-up for Best Actor at the 97th ceremony when he fell short to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. There is competition for the gold at the 98th production, especially from Battle‘s Leonardo DiCaprio and maybe Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon). Yet the third time could definitely be the charm for Mr. Supreme.
Supporting Actress is tough to pinpoint. A’Zion is being called the breakout performance while Paltrow is being heralded for a comeback role. All scenarios are possible as they could both get in or cancel each other out. It makes it trickier that there’s potential double nominees for Sentimental Value with Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass and perhaps Sinners with Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld. If only one makes the cut, I’m a bit stumped as where the edge lies. I’ve had Paltrow ranked slightly above A’Zion. Precursors should assist in offering clues. Right now my gut says both do not make the quintet and one of them does. I could flip a coin at the moment between them.
As for other above the line races, Safdie’s inclusion in Director isn’t automatic but the embargo lapse makes me more confident he gets in. Original Screenplay (from Safdie and Ronald Bronstein) shouldn’t be a problem.
There is a number of possibilities in tech competitions and it starts with the new Best Casting award which Supreme (with its unexpected roster choices) looks tailor made for. The pic also seems viable in Best Cinematography (from two-time nominee Darius Khondji), Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. A best case scenario could even include Sound though I suspect several rivals could close that door.
This means the A24 release could rack up a dozen nods under the rosiest projections with high single digits seemingly happening. Wins might be hard to come by in a number of them, but its lead has boosted his chances even more with a month left in the calendar year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.
That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.
Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.
I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.
In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.
Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)
13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ne Zha 2
Animal Farm
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tale of Silyan
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)
3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
7 Nominations
Frankenstein
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2
My first update in two weeks showcases stability in the major races as there’s no changes in Picture, Director, or the four acting races. However, within the categories, there is movement worth noting. Frankenstein is now up to 7th and, for the first time, I would be surprised if it’s not nominated.
The only significant movie not yet seen is Avatar: Fire and Ash. As we await screening word-of-mouth, I still have it in the BP ten at ninth. If it does not end up making the cut (unlike its two predecessors), keep an eye on The Secret Agent. I have it rising to its highest perch in 12th with lead Wagner Moura now third for Best Actor.
On the eve of its Friday premiere, Wicked: For Good slips from 6th to 8th in BP while Ariana Grande continues to top the Supporting Actress rankings. The actual review embargo lifts tomorrow and that could shift Wicked‘s placement in numerous competitions.
You can read all the movement below, including my projection that Netflix’s Train Dreams is on track for an Adapted Screenplay nod (taking out Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery).
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Secret Agent (PR: 14) (+2)
13. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Seeds (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Tale of Silyan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cutting Through Rocks
The Eyes of Ghana
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hedda (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-3)
9. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
A House of Dynamite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Warfare (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)
That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Zootopia 2
It’s been three weeks (!) since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions, but there was prognosticating activity in the meantime. I did deep dives on Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups, you can find them here:
Now that November is here, there are some notable shifts with Frankenstein back in the BP top 10 and Bugonia falling out. In fact, I only have Bugonia getting a solo nod in Adapted Screenplay. Amanda Seyfried returns to the Actress quintet with Emma Stone dropping.
That’s better than Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which I have blanking on nomination morning. That means Jeremy Allen White is on the outside looking in with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) taking his spot. Jeremy Strong’s Supporting Actor work in Nowhere is nowhere in the top 5 with Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) elevating.
Only Director and Supporting Actress stay intact in the biggies while we see shifting #1’s in Production Design, Sound, and a different selected song for Wicked: For Good in the pole position. You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 10) (-1)
12. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+4)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (E)
10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Song Song Blue
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: 7) (E)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters from Andrivka (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Seeds (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Weapons (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+4)
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Warfare (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-3)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (-1)
And that leaves the following movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent
1 Nominations
28 Years Later, 2000 Meter from Andrivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zooptopia 2
As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:
I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
After the Hunt
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
The Life of Chuck
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
The Rivals of Amziah King
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Alpha
Ballad of a Small Player
Bugonia
Die, My Love
F1
Frankenstein
Highest 2 Lowest
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Materialists
Michael
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Testament of Ann Lee
Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.
So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.
The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.
Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.
I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.
Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.
Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.
That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.
I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.
An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.
To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.
Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.
Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).
The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?
Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.
Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.
Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.
Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. All four acting contests have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, they are linked here:
I published my first preview of the directing field on April 12th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Edward Berger, Ballad of a Small Player
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
The 5 eventual nominees could be found among those 15 possibilities. However, we can be confident some won’t make it in. For Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King seems to be a 2026 release. After the Hunt was a commercial and critical disappointment and Luca Guadagnino appears to be a non-factor. The out of contention status also applies to Edward Berger, Mike Flanagan, and Spike Lee.
Let’s get into the others and other names not raised back in April. Both Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao’s movies are probable safe bets for BP. They could certainly come along for the ride. I’m slightly more confident in Zhao contending for her second trophy after winning in 2020 for Nomadland though Safdie is definitely viable in his solo behind the camera effort.
Park Chan-wook’s fortunes should be tied to whether No Other Choice makes BP and I keep going back and forth on that. The same could be said Noah Baumbach, Jon M. Chu, Guillermo del Toro, and Yorgos Lanthimos. Their respective features Jay Kelly, Wicked: For Good (as yet unseen), Frankenstein, and Bugonia are all on the BP bubble. Same goes for the unmentioned A House of Dynamite and Kathryn Bigelow.
Even if Avatar: Fire and Ash gets into BP, I’m skeptical James Cameron is in unless the third franchise entry as universally seen as the best. We’ll know that in a few weeks.
Sentimental Value is not on the bubble. Its ticket is likely punched and that could benefit Joachim Trier for a first nomination though I don’t believe his nom is assured as the movie’s.
Who is assured? Paul Thomas Anderson. One Battle is your soft frontrunner for BP and this is a golden opportunity for the Academy to honor PTA for this and his overall body of work.
I also think Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is in for his vampire epic which is the other Warner Bros title vying for BP alongside One Battle.
A pair of foreign filmmakers could vie for a slot – Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Kieber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent). Their fortunes are also tied to BP inclusion and I feel the latter has a stronger pathway.
In conclusion, I feel safe with PTA, Coogler, and Zhao RSVP’d for the directorial dance. The other two noms could be filled by plenty of names above. My in-depth posts on the six biggest categories will conclude with Best Picture!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. Best Actor and the supporting fields have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, please find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actress field on April 11th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Olivia Colman, The Roses
Jodie Foster, A Private Life
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
What’s pretty amazing is how viable many of these contenders still are. In fact, it wouldn’t be totally crazy for my initial quintet to still be the final quintet. I believe there’s an excellent shot that 80% of them get in. Before we get to them, let’s dispense with the other possibilities that are no longer possibilities, shall we?
Olivia Colman (The Roses) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) have OK chances to make the cut at the Globes in lead Actress in a Musical/Comedy. However, the former Oscar winners will not be returning to that ceremony. I’d say the same for June Squibb as Eleanor the Great drew mixed notices from critics and was a non-factor at the box office. Then there’s Jessica Lange. It seems like Long Day’s Journey Into Night is always about to come out, but never does. I’ve had her listed as a possibility in 2023 and 2024 and now 2025 and there’s still no release date. Perhaps she’ll pop up again for 2026.
Emma Mackey’s work for December’s Ella McCay is still unseen. The fact that it skipped autumn festivals could be telling, but you never know. Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead has been heralded at fests and distributor Vertical should push her as they picked up distribution rights for a December bow. I’m just not convinced it’ll get enough eyeballs for her to truly contend.
The other nine actresses among the 15 above are very much worthy of discussion, along with a couple others. That discussion begins (and ultimately could end) with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. As Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright in Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, she drew raves at Telluride and Toronto. Slated for wide release in December, the pic should garner multiple noms and Buckley is in the pole position for a victory.
Her biggest competition could be Renate Reinsve from another fest favorite Sentimental Value. I had her at #1 for awhile until Hamnet was unveiled.
While it’s still unseen, Cynthia Erivo could make it two in a row with the second part of Wicked and once again join her costar Ariana Grande (in supporting) as a nominee.
And while the movie itself drew divergent reactions, Amanda Seyfried was widely praised for The Testament of Ann Lee and Searchlight seems poised to mount a spirited campaign.
All four were in my inaugural April predictions. All four still are at the moment. The one that’s not is Julia Roberts in After the Hunt despite her being on top when I did my first ranked projections a few months ago. Since then, Hunt has been hindered plenty of negative reviews and poor box office. It’s not unthinkable for the 2000 Best Actress recipient to make the cut though it is a more remote possibility at this juncture.
Of the other possibilities from April, four still are. I could easily give two-time winner Emma Stone the spot. A Bugonia BP nom would help. The Academy could also feel like she’s been honored enough.
Rose Byrne has never been nominated for an Oscar and she’s getting career best notices for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Precursor attention and critics groups trophies could put her in.
Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) face trickier odds and if either got in, it’d be considered an upset right now. That dynamic could shift if the Globes/Critics Choice/SAG start naming either of them.
When it comes to names not mentioned in the initial 15, Sydney Sweeney has many critics saying she delivers in the boxing biopic Christy. Her chances could be KO’d by middling reviews for the pic itself.
Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) got her flowers at Sundance and beyond. She would need precursors to gain any momentum.
There are two actresses not in the April mix that certainly are now. Chase Infiniti will be campaigned in lead for One Battle After Another which could become the next BP. The Warner Bros announcement that Infinti (in her first feature film role) is going for Actress and not Supporting Actress has caused many prognosticators to shift their thinking. She’s far from automatic (or close to it) like her costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor but she could find herself joining them on the red carpet.
Finally, Kate Hudson was up 25 years ago in supporting for Almost Famous. Her role in the forthcoming Song Sung Blue is rumored to be an Oscar-baity part. We’ll know more tomorrow when it screens at the AFI Fest.
My in-depth look at the big races will continue with Best Director!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and Actress and continues today with Best Actor. If you missed my write-up on the supporting players, you can find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actor field on April 8th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Let’s dispense with the easy subtractions, shall we? The Rivals of Amziah King with Matthew McConaughey seems more likely to release in 2026. Same goes for Jaafar Jackson in Michael and Andrew Scott in Pressure. Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will contend in Supporting Actor where I am predicting him to get a nomination.
The reviews and buzz simply doesn’t exist for Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player or McConaughey in The Lost Bus. Same for Willem Dafoe in Late Fame though a surprise Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nod could make him a remote possibility. I would say the same logic applies to Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice and Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine. For the latter, subpar box office doesn’t help his chances which were once seen as rock solid.
Beyond the names above, there’s a slew of once promising contenders who have fizzled out for one reason or another. It includes Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein). I don’t expect to see their names among the nominees.
So let’s discuss who I think is truly in the mix and it’s ten actors. Half will make the cut and half will not. There could be 11 via the soon to be screened Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman though Kate Hudson is rumored to be the awards play from that one.
From my first ranked predictions in April, I’ve had Timothée Chalamet in the #1 spot after he was probably the runner-up for Actor last year to Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) for his embodiment of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The review embargo is still intact for December’s Marty Supreme, but early word-of-mouth indicates the top ranking is justified and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of The Boss in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is out tonight. His nomination seems more probable than not even though the pic itself is a question mark in BP.
George Clooney as Jay Kelly is more of an unknown as the movie has its ardent supporters and some detractors. If Kelly gets into BP, it significantly increases his odds.
Daniel Day-Lewis, a three-time winner, could get in just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. However, Anemone drew mixed reactions and was a non-entity at the box office.
Other than Chalamet, the performer I’m most confident makes the quintet is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. He’s a threat to take gold if the aforementioned competition fizzles out in the potential BP frontrunner.
Like Clooney, Jesse Plemons would benefit from Bugonia sneaking into BP. A better than currently expected performance from the film could grant him admission.
Blue Moon is a long shot for BP, but voters could still make room for veteran Ethan Hawke. He’d be vying for his third overall nom after supporting recognition for Training Day and Boyhood.
Train Dreams is also probably not on track for BP though Joel Edgerton has a so-so chance of getting in if other awards branches or critics groups bring him up.
Sinners, on the other hand, is a surefire hopeful in the big dance and Michael B. Jordan could get swept in for his dual role in the smash hit.
Wagner Moura was Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent and I’m starting to believe his odds are increasing.
So there you have it. I think Chalamet and DiCaprio have punched their tickets with White close to doing the same unless Springsteen is a notable flop. The other seven are vying for slots four and five. My in-depth look at these high profile categories will continue with Best Actress!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.
After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.
The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.
Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.
Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.
My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Nia Long, Michael
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:
2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago
2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt
2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter
2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help
2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.
A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.
Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.
Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.
Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.
One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!
A trio of new releases are vying for the #1 spot this weekend as musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, romantic drama Regretting You and anime fantasy Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc are unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Potential over or under performances by the newbies make this an uncertain weekend. As mentioned, any of them could place 1st or Black Phone 2 could repeat atop the charts. I’m giving the slight edge to Springsteen with Jeremy Allen White as The Boss though my mid teens estimate means it would fall short of the eventual grosses of recent genre fare like Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and A Complete Unknown.
Regretting You has a shot of exceeding expectations since it’s based on source material from Colleen Hoover. The adaptation of her novel It Endswith Us was a smash last year. Yet my low teens take puts it in second as this doesn’t seem to have the buzz of the aforementioned.
As for Chainsaw, anime features (especially the most recent Demon Slayer) have been hot commodities, but this isn’t expected to reach anywhere that pic’s $70 million start. I’m going low double digits though it could surprise.
After a stellar start, Black Phone 2 should lose around its opening weekend audience with Tron: Ares shedding more than that and rounding out the top five.
Here’s how it see it shaking out:
1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $14 million
3. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
5. Tron: Ares
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (October 17-19)
Black Phone 2 rang up decent business and outdid its 2022 predecessor with $27.3 million. That managed to top my $25.5 million prediction.
Tron: Ares fell 67% for $11.1 million in second, rising slightly ahead of my $10.2 million call. The flop of a threequel stands at $54 million after two weeks and this won’t be reaching nine digits domestically.
Aziz Ansari’s comedy Good Fortune couldn’t find it despite the star power of Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. It was third with $6.1 million, a shade below my $7.3 million estimate.
One Battle After Another was fourth with $3.8 million compared to my $4.9 million projection. The four-week total is $61 million.
Roofman took fifth with $3.7 million (I said $4.6 million) and it’s shackled with only $15 million in two weekends of play.
Finally, critically drubbed After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts was ninth in wide release with a paltry $1.5 million. I was more generous at $3.5 million.
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