Tag: Olivia Colman

A Different Man Shocks at Gotham

Tonight’s Gotham Awards were not expected to provide any major clues as to how the awards season will play out. That might hold true, but I do think the winner of Best Feature could be a preview for one picture in particular.

Adam Schimberg’s A Different Man was the surprise winner in the big race over the heavily favored Anora from Sean Baker. For those that didn’t believe Anora would away with the top prize from the New York group that honors indie movies, the runner-up pick would’ve been RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys. Both of them are anticipated to nab BP nods (especially Anora). And while that still is the case, it does make me question all the prognosticators who have Anora ranked #1 (a lot do). I haven’t yet and have always slotted it 2nd or 3rd behind (lately) The Brutalist or Conclave. By the way, Challengers and Babygirl were the other contenders.

So… should we be thinking about A Different Man in Best Picture? I wouldn’t make that leap. However, it’s worth noting that four of the past five Gotham Feature victors managed a BP slot: 2019’s Marriage Story, 2020’s Nomadland (which won), 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once (another winner), and last year’s Past Lives. The exception is The Lost Daughter from 2021. Don’t expect Different to all of a sudden pop into my top 10 in BP, but you might see it between 11-15 in other possibilities when I update.

The no-show in victories for Anora continued in Director as RaMell Ross was honored for Nickel Boys. Strangely enough, this was the first year where the Gothams bestowed an individual behind the camera prize so comparisons cannot be made. That said, Ross is certainly a possibility at the Oscars though I currently don’t have him in my quintet.

The Gothams do not separate gender in their lead and supporting races as of 2021. Voters clearly were taken with Sing Sing as Colman Domingo was Outstanding Lead Performer and Clarence Maclin was Outstanding Supporting Performer.

For Domingo, he beat out his anticipated competitor in Best Actor Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as well as plenty of Actress possibilities like Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Demi Moore (The Substance), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl). Since 2021, only Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) received an Oscar nod after winning this category.

Maclin was selected over other potential Supporting Actor rivals including Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Yura Borisov (Anora), and A Different Man‘s Adam Pearson. Supporting Actress hopefuls Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) were also in the mix. The winners of supporting here in 2021 (Troy Kotsur for CODA) and 2022 (Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere) went onto take the Supporting Actor Oscar. Last year’s recipient Charles Melton (May December) didn’t make the Academy’s cut. Both Domingo and Maclin are expected to receive Oscar nominations.

Speaking of His Three Daughters, it won Screenplay. Yet you can’t read much into that because none of the other nominees (Between the Temples, Evil Does Not Exist, Femme, Janet Planet) are expected to contend at the Academy Awards.

The precursors for Oscars are begin to roll out and keep an eye on this blog for all the coverage!

Oscar Predictions: Paddington in Peru

The title character that first debuted over 65 years ago in Michael Bond’s children’s books is onscreen for the third time via Paddington in Peru. The mix of live-action and animation arrives a decade after Paddington and seven years after the sequel with Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Ben Whishaw is back voicing the bear with a supporting cast including Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Olivia Colman, Imelda Staunton, and Antonio Banderas. It arrives in the United Kingdom Friday with its North American release not coming until January 17th (therefore making it eligible for the Oscars after the next one).

This is, in fact, more of a BAFTA Predictions write-up than an Oscar one. Neither of Peru‘s predecessors generated Academy attention despite warm reviews. On the other hand, the British Academy bit. The original was nominated for Best British Film and for its Adapted Screenplay. Part 2 was up for the same pair of awards plus Hugh Grant in Supporting Actor. The pics went 0 for 5 in terms of victories.

The Rotten Tomatoes score for the third adventure is 91%. Yet it’s Metacritic that tells the real story. Paddington had 77 on that site while the sequel improved upon that with 88. Peru is stuck at 58. That probably means that BAFTA will not honor part 3 in any way. My Oscar… and BAFTA related… Prediction posts will continue…

Venice Makes Room for Next Door

The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.

What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.

Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.

The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).

In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).

Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!

Oscar Predictions: Kinds of Kindness

The previous two features from Yorgos Lanthimos – 2018’s The Favourite and last year’s Poor Things – combined for 21 Oscar nominations. This includes two Actress victories for Olivia Colman in the former and Emma Stone in the latter. Mere months after Poor Things, Lanthimos’s follow-up Kinds of Kindness has premiered at Cannes prior to its June 21st stateside bow. The three hour anthology has Ms. Stone headlining alongside Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.

Unlike his two Academy contending predecessors, Lanthimos reunites with writing partner Efthimis Filippou. They collaborated on the filmmaker’s earlier projects Dogtooth (2012), The Lobster (2016), and The Killing of a Sacred Deer (2017).

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Several critics, while praising many aspects, are calling this an easier picture to admire than like. This will be a true test of the Academy’s affinity for its maker. Those last two projects yielded five acting nominations and the aforementioned two wins. Stone and Plemons in particular are generating plenty of kudos. I do question whether Searchlight hones in on any of the cast for recognition. Perhaps SAG will take notice. In my previous prediction posts, I singled out Hong Chau for Supporting Actress consideration. I doubt that happens now. The best bet could be a sole Screenplay nod.

I wouldn’t discount Kinds receiving the kindness of awards voters. That said, I believe it faces more of an uphill battle than Lanthimos’s recent things that the Academy favoured. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Beautiful Game

In 2022, veteran thespian Bill Nighy nabbed his first Oscar nomination for the period drama Living. He’s in coach mode with The Beautiful Game as the leader of a homeless squad of footballers. Thea Sharrock, also behind the camera for the just out Wicked Little Letters with Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley, directs the sports drama. The supporting cast includes Micheal Ward from Empire of Light (where he romanced Ms. Colman), Valeria Golino of Rain Man and Hot Shots! fame, and Susan Wokoma.

Following a limited release, Game hit Netflix last weekend to generally pleasing notices (the RT score is 87%). While Nighy’s performance is predictably being praised, this doesn’t appear poised to generate awards buzz and that probably wasn’t the goal in the first place. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Wicked Little Letters

Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley both received Oscar nods for their work in 2021’s The Lost Daughter. The pair reunite in Wicked Little Letters from director Thea Sharrock. It premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival, came out in the UK in February, and makes it way to stateside locations on March 29th. Costars include Anjana Vasan, Malachi Kirby, Joanna Scanlan, Gemma Jones, and Timothy Spall.

Critics are divided on the 1920s mystery comedy which is said to be heavy on foul language coming from delightful British accents. The RT score is a so-so 64%. Despite praise for the cast, the Sony Picture Classics release is unlikely to factor into the awards race. Same goes for the Globes and BAFTA, but perhaps the studio will mount a campaign. However, it probably won’t make a %#*@$^! difference. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second filmmaker in Best Director and that’s Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things. Let’s get to it!

Previous Directing Nominations:

The Favourite (2018)

The Case for Yorgos Lanthimos:

From his 2009 Greek psychological drama Dogtooth to the 2015 pitch black satire The Lobster and 2017 medical thriller The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Lanthimos has emerged as one of the most acclaimed directors of the 21st century (with some comparisons to Kubrick). Absurdist costume period piece The Favourite was his awards breakout with 10 nods and an Actress victory for Olivia Colman. His follow-up absurdist costume period piece Poor Things did that one better with 11 and it has its hardcore supporters. He’s picked up DGA, Critics Choice, and Globe mentions.

The Case Against Yorgos Lanthimos:

That all important DGA precursor went to Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer and he also received the Globe and Critics Choice. It looks like it’s simply his year. Lanthimos was also snubbed for BAFTA.

The Verdict:

Actress for Emma Stone and Production Design are Oscar things his film could get. Not this category.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall…

Oscars: The Case of Poor Things

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered eight of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos.

The Case for Poor Things:

After The Favourite generated 10 nominations in 2018, Lanthimos’s follow-up bested that by 1 with 11. The multi-genre affair scored the second most nods overall for this year’s ceremony behind Oppenheimer‘s 13. The others are for the direction, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design. Truth be told, it didn’t really miss anywhere (though Willem Dafoe was probably close to getting in for Supporting Actor alongside his costars). It’s been nominated for top honors at key precursors like BAFTA and Critics Choice and won Musical/Comedy (over Barbie) at the Globes.

The Case Against Poor Things:

Poor Things might be a little too out there for even the Academy. More importantly, you have to place it in at least second position (maybe third after The Holdovers) behind strong frontrunner Oppenheimer.

The Verdict:

Just as The Favourite wasn’t, this isn’t the favorite for BP. Like The Favourite and Olivia Colman, it might yield a Best Actress winner in Emma Stone and some tech victories. This might also go home empty-handed.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Zone of Interest…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers
Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon
Oscars: The Case of Maestro
Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer
Oscars: The Case of Past Lives

Wonka Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros hopes audiences will take a look and then they’ll see pure dollar signs when Wonka opens December 15th. Timothee Chalamet takes over the iconic title role already filled by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2015. The musical fantasy comes from Paul King, best known for Paddington and its sequel. Costars include Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Boynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant.

An origin story about Roald Dahl’s eccentric chocolatier, the $125 million budgeted confection is generating mostly strong reviews at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hoping to sell lots of golden tickets, it could experience small declines in the holiday weekends ahead.

That may mean its debut isn’t gigantic even though it could be solid. The rosiest out of the gate projections could be in the mid 40s to even $50 million. I’ll say it starts in the mid 30s but word-of-mouth and the time of year could propel it to impressive holds in the future.

Wonka opening weekend prediction: $36.4 million

Oscar Predictions: Wonka

Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.

The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).

Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.

One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…