Oscar Predictions: No Other Choice

No Other Choice is the newest feature from acclaimed South Korean filmmaker Park Chan-wook and it has premiered in Venice. With domestic distribution by Neon, the satirical thriller is expected to hit domestic screens later this year. It is based on a 1997 novel by Donald Westlake. The cast is led by Lee Byung-hun with supporting turns from Son Ye-jin, Park Hee-soon, Lee Sung-min, Yeom Hye-ran, and Cha Seung-won.

Chan-wook has made critical darlings including Oldboy, The Handmaiden, and Decision to Leave. Yet none of his efforts have been recognized by the Academy in the International Feature Film derby. 2022’s Leave was widely expected to do so and its snub was one of the biggest shockers on that nomination morning.

Choice certainly has the reviews to change that with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 86 on Metacritic. In a best case scenario, it could branch out from IFF and into Best Picture with Chan-wook in the directing quintet, Byung-hun in Actor, and an Adapted Screenplay mention. I think the most likely scenario is inclusion in IFF and the screenplay race. There’s also the possibility that the Academy ignores it like they did with Leave. However, one could argue that pic’s snub could help his latest. One thing to keep an eye is Neon’s bandwidth in their campaigns. In the international competition, they will also be juggling Sentimental Value (the frontrunner at this juncture), Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Acciddent, and the heralded The Secret Agent and Sirât (both Cannes favorites). I wouldn’t put it past Neon to successfully shine lights on all of them though it could be a stretch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Decision to Leave

South Korean filmmaker Park Chan-wook is highly acclaimed for features including Oldboy and The Handmaiden. His latest is the romantic thriller Decision to Leave, which has premiered at Cannes.

Starring Tang Wei and Park Hae-il, critics are praising Chan-wook’s effort with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 92%. As is often the case with the director, the cinematography by Kim Ji-yong is drawing particular raves. Oscar voters have yet to honor its maker’s filmography. Despite the positive buzz, Leave could face an uphill battle for the Academy’s attention.

The primary reason is the country of origin. I have a feeling South Korea may select another pic from one of its best known directors – Hirokazu Kore’ada’s Broker – as their contestant for International Feature Film. It also premiered in France and its kudos are arguably louder. That would leave Decision out of the running. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Oldboy Box Office Prediction

Unless I’m really missing something here, Spike Lee’s Oldboy starring Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson seems to be flying in way under the radar to an extent that I did not expect.

When this project was announced, this remake of a 2003 South Korean critically acclaimed cult favorite looked like it could be a high-profile fall release. However, Film District and Universal seem to have very little confidence in it. The marketing campaign has been muted and no mainstream reviews have been released at press time. If anything, its tepid marketing campaign reminds me of Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, another flick I thought would be more highly touted than it was. It ended up earning a paltry $7.8 million in its debut. Added to that, Oldboy is only being released on roughly 500 screens on Wednesday which will surely hinder its opening.

Add all that up and I’m not expecting a whole lot with Oldboy.

Oldboy opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $3.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)