Wicked: For Good sweeps in to rule the box office and it could compete for 2025’s biggest domestic opening. We also have Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge and Japan set dramedy Rental Family making their debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The second part of Wicked is expected to easily swoosh past the $112 million opening of part 1 last year. The real question is whether it eclipses the $162 million start of A Minecraft Movie which currently holds the record for the year. I have falling just behind.
Sisu: Road to Revenge should manage to top the $3.3 million out of the gate that its predecessor achieved in 2023, but perhaps not by much. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth.
Rental Family with Oscar winner Brendan Fraser hasn’t been able to generate much buzz despite mostly solid reviews. I have it struggling in sixth place.
Holdovers should populate slots 2-4. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t scored a surprise #1 showing (more on that below). If it drops in range with Now You See Me 2 from nine years ago, it could fall below $10 million for the runner-up spot. The second weekend of The Running Man and third frame of Predator: Badlands could see similar numbers battling for third.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Wicked: For Good
Predicted Gross: $158.1 million
2. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
3. The Running Man
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
4. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. Sisu: Road to Revenge
Predicted Gross: $4 million
6. Rental Family
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (November 14-16)
As mentioned, threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t easily ruled the charts with a better than anticipated $21 million compared to my $17.1 million prediction. While it’s the lowest opening of the franchise (falling under the original’s $29 million and part two’s $22 million), the #1 posting was an unexpected development.
That’s because many prognosticators, including me, figured The Running Man with Glen Powell might manage bragging rights. Yet the sci-fi remake took in only $16.4 million for second, under my $19.6 million estimate.
Another projection I missed is that I thought Predator: Badlands wouldn’t experience the hefty sophomore decline of other pics in the franchise. However, it plummeted 68% to $12.7 million. I was far more generous at $18.2 million. The two-week tally is still an impressive $66 million.
Regretting You was fourth with $3.7 million and I was higher at $5 million. The four-week take is $44 million.
Black Phone 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. In its fifth week, it earned $2.6 million to bring its total to $74 million.
Keeper from Osgood Perkins was right behind in sixth with $2.5 million (I said $3.2 million). The horror flick couldn’t attract its intended audience.
Not many eyeballs have been trained on Lionsgate releases over the last couple of years and the studio hopes that changes with Now You See Me: Now You Don’t. The third feature in the magic infused heist franchise arrives nearly a decade after the second installment. Ruben Fleischer takes over the directorial reins from Louis Leterrier (the 2013 original) and Jon M. Chu (the 2016 sequel). Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Isla Fischer, and Morgan Freeman reprise their roles and newcomers include Justice Smith, Dominic Sessa, Ariana Greenblatt, and Rosamund Pike as the main villain.
In the summer of 2013, part 1 was an unexpected hit with a $29 million debut and $117 million domestic haul. Three years later, the follow-up experienced diminishing returns with a $22 million start and $65 million overall gross. Unless there’s a nostalgia factor the series that I’m simply not seeing, this should experience the worst opening of the trio and that long layover doesn’t help. I’m thinking mid to high teens.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
This little blog of mine is over 10 years old now and a summer tradition has been to highlight the cinematic seasons of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We saw recaps of 1992, 2002, and 2012 around this time in 2022. Now this site is aged enough that I shall only look back at a decade ago. Therefore let’s shine a light on 2013 and the offerings between May and August.
Here’s how it works. I’ll recount the top 10 grossers domestically as well as other notable features and noteworthy flops. It was the summer after The Avengers dominated and Tony Stark still managed to rule in his own franchise.
Let the countdown begin!
10. The Great Gatsby
Domestic Gross: $144 million
Baz Luhrmann’s second collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio may have drawn mixed critical reaction, but audiences turned up and it won both Oscars it was nominated for (Production Design and Costume Design). It is still the stylish filmmaker’s largest worldwide earner even with last year’s success of Elvis.
9. We’re the Millers
Domestic Gross: $150 million
Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis headlined this raunchy comedy from Dodgeball maker Rawson Marshall Thurber. Like Gatsby, critics weren’t overly kind but crowds liked what they saw.
8. The Heat
Domestic Gross: $159 million
Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy (hot off Bridesmaids) teamed up for this buddy cop laugher from Paul Feig and it became the summer’s hottest live-action movie in its genre. Bullock would have a massive earner and Oscar nod in the fall with Gravity.
7. World War Z
Domestic Gross: $202 million
Some had it pegged as a potential financial disappointment, but this would turn out to be the biggest grossing zombie flick ever. Despite Brad Pitt’s presence and plenty of development rumors, a planned sequel has yet to materialize.
6. Star Trek Into Darkness
Domestic Gross: $228 million
JJ Abrams helmed this sequel two and a half years before taking on Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It holds the title of best global earning movie of the franchise.
5. Fast & Furious 6
Domestic Gross: $238 million
Vin Diesel and Paul Walker revved the series to unforeseen moneymaking heights at the time though part 7 would outdo it two years later. Six months after 6‘s release, Walker perished tragically in auto accident.
4. Monsters University
Domestic Gross: $268 million
The long gestating sequel to 2001’s Monsters University was a profitable venture for Pixar. It failed to nab an Animated Feature nod from the Academy (rare for the studio), but Disney likely wept into their cash.
3. Man of Steel
Domestic Gross: $291 million
The first picture in the DCEU came with gargantuan expectations with Zack Snyder directing and Henry Cavill donning the S. Reaction from critics and audiences was all over the map. Compared to this summer with the epic failure of The Flash, these were kinda the good ole days for DC.
2. Despicable Me 2
Domestic Gross: $368 million
Illumination dwarfed Pixar in the animated race with this sequel that became parent studio Universal’s most profitable film of all time. It’s also responsible for the season’s ubiquitous ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams.
1. Iron Man 3
Domestic Gross: $409 million
Tony Stark’s third solo adventure was generally considered an improvement on #2 as Shane Black handled the behind the camera work. It ended up as the year’s second best grosser behind November’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
Now for some others worthy of discussion:
The Conjuring
Domestic Gross: $137 million
It might be just outside the top ten in 11th, but James Wan’s horror classic spawned a decade’s worth of sequels (two thus far) and spin-offs (Annabelle, The Nun) with no end in sight.
Now You See Me
Domestic Gross: $117 million
The heist pic from Louis Leterrier (who just directed Fast X) was a sleeper smash with a $350 million worldwide haul. A less regarded sequel came in 2016.
The Butler
Lee Daniels helmed this decades spanning tale of Forest Whitaker’s White House employee with Oprah Winfrey as his troubled wife. The studio was likely hoping for more awards attention than it ended up with, but the earnings were impressive.
Pacific Rim
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Guillermo del Toro’s monster mashup didn’t wow with a significant domestic take, but the overseas dollars were enough to spawn a panned 2018 sequel. The international haul makes it the Oscar winner’s personal best.
This Is the End
Domestic Gross: $101 million
This end of the world saga from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg was a star studded (from Michael Cera to Rihanna) dark comedy with critics on its side.
The Purge
Domestic Gross: $64 million
This dystopian horror pic launched another money minting series and was an early sleeper success for Blumhouse.
Blue Jasmine
Predicted Gross: $33 million
That number marks an impressive one for Woody Allen in the 21st century and this nabbed Cate Blanchett a Best Actress Academy Award.
Fruitvale Station
Domestic Gross: $16 million
Marking the first collaboration between Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, this indie drama was a critical darling. The pair would achieve colossal success in the years to follow with Creed and Black Panther.
There were lots of hits a decade ago. Yet there’s always the projects that don’t match expectations.
The Hangover Part III
Domestic Gross: $112 million
Audiences were growing weary of The Wolf Pack in the lambasted third entry. It came in well below the previous two.
Elysium
Domestic Gross: $93 million
Neill Blomkamp’s District 9 in 2009 was nominated for Best Picture. This sci-fi follow up with Matt Damon was considered a letdown by not joining the century club.
The Lone Ranger
Domestic Gross: $89 million
I’m gonna go ahead and say you couldn’t green light this $250 million adventure starring Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer today. It turns out Disney shouldn’t have 10 years ago as this came in far under expectations. The box office magic that director Gore Verbinski and Depp created with Pirates of the Caribbean was gone.
White House Down
Predicted Gross: $73 million
Roland Emmerich’s latest with Channing Tatum as a secret service agent and Jamie Foxx as POTUS had its thunder stolen in the spring by the similarly themed and better regarded Olympus Has Fallen (which spawned two sequels).
After Earth
Predicted Gross: $60 million
Moviegoers slapped down M. Night Shyamalan’s sci-fi epic starring the father son duo of Will and Jaden Smith. Reviews were harsh with a 12% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
The Internship
Domestic Gross: $44 million
Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson’s 2005 romp Wedding Crashers was a $209 million earning smash. Eight years later, very few signed up for this forgettable reunion.
R.I.P.D.
Predicted Gross: $33 million
It might have been going for the Men in Black crowd, but audiences shunned this sci-fi comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds. Somehow a direct to DVVD prequel was commissioned and released last year.
And there you have it! A look back at 2013 in the multiplex. I’ll have a 2014 recap conjured up next summer…
Heroes from the MCU and DCEU join the large Furious family when Fast X speeds into multiplexes on May 19th. The tenth official feature in the franchise (11th counting spin-off Hobbs & Shaw) arrives less than two years behind F9. Those newcomers to the fold are Captain Marvel Brie Larson and Aquaman Jason Momoa. Another fresh face to the series is director Louis Letterier, best known for The Transporter and Now You See Me. The many returnees include Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Chris “Ludacris” Bridges, Nathalie Emmanuel, Jordana Brewster, John Cena, Jason Statham, Sung Kang, Scott Eastwood, and Charlize Theron. Rita Moreno also joins the party.
Fast X is the penultimate pic with the (allegedly) final installment hitting in 2025. In 2015, Furious 7 had the high dollar peak when it premiered with $147 million and an eventual $353 domestic gross. Part of that franchise best performance was because it paid tribute to the late Paul Walker (who co-headlined with Diesel in four previous entries). In 2017, The Fate of the Furious started with $98 million and ended with $225 million. Predecessor F9 from 2021 managed $70 million out of the gate and $173 million overall.
One could argue that F9 was hindered two summers ago by the COVID pandemic. That could be proven if X is marked by a larger opening. My hunch is that it’ll kick off on pace with it and maybe even a little behind. That would give it the lowest series beginning (excluding the $60 million from Hobbs & Shaw) since 2006’s The Fast and the Furious: Toyko Drift.
Three summers ago, the magic caper Now You See Me came out of nowhere with a $29 million opening and eventual $117M domestic gross. This was probably never looked at by Summit Entertainment as a potential franchise, but those numbers mean sequel and Now You See Me 2 is out next weekend. Lex Luthor (Jesse Eisenberg), Hulk (Mark Ruffalo), Alfred (Michael Caine), and Lucius Fox (Morgan Freeman) are all back, as are Woody Harrelson and Dave Franco. Lizzy Caplan and Harry Potter himself (Daniel Radcliffe) join the party. Jon M. Chu, whose varied credits include Justin Bieber: Never Say Never and G.I. Joe: Retaliation, takes over directorial duties from Louis Leterrier.
Unlike 2013, NYSM2 comes with expectations and also with stiff competition. Another sequel to a summer 2013 hit, The Conjuring 2, should have the leg up for opening weekend earnings and there’s also the high-profile Warcraft competing for eyeballs.
While I have the Conjuring follow-up slightly outdoing its predecessor out of the gate, I’ll predict this sequel comes in a bit under what the original accomplished for what will still be a pretty decent debut.
Now You See Me 2 opening weekend prediction: $24.1 million
The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.
In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.
Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.
The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.
Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.
2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow.
That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.
So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four.
Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.
As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!
In will undoubtedly be the return of Superman in Man of Steel that rules the box office this weekend. The only question is: how big will it open? I made my fearless prediction earlier in the week here:
Some would call my prediction a bit generous. Since I wrote the post on Sunday, reviews for Steel have come out. They’re mixed and I frankly thought the critical reaction would be more positive. However, this doesn’t take away from the fact that the pic is eagerly anticipated and has terrific trailers. We’ll see how the prediction holds up.
The weekend’s other new release, the all-star comedy This Is the End, is generating great reviews and also has the bonus of trailers that work. It officially opened wide today but its Tuesday evening numbers are encouraging. It could be even go bigger than my prediction. Time will tell. My post predicting End can be found here:
As for holdovers, expect fairly modest declines for Now You See Me and Fast&Furious 6. The largest decline should be for last weekend’s #1, The Purge, which outdid all expectations by a mile but also only received a C Cinemascore grade. A precipitous drop looks likely.
With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Man of Steel
Predicted Gross: $124.3 million
2. This Is the End
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million ($38.6 million projected five-day gross)
3. The Purge
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 61%)
4. Now You See Me
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Fast&Furious 6
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)
And there you are! Check back this weekend for early results on the FB page and on Sunday for final results when we see just how high Superman flies.
It’s certainly not every weekend that you can describe the box office results as truly shocking. However, this weekend… they were truly shocking.
This is for two reasons: the over performance of Now You See Me and the under performance of After Earth. No one figured the caper flick Now You See Me had a chance of making more than Will Smith’s sci-fi pic After Earth. That’s precisely what happened.
We begin where we should though and that’s with Fast and Furious 6 remaining in the top spot with $35.1 million, a tad below my $36M projection. The sixth F+F installment experienced a sophomore weekend decline right in line with other entries in the franchise.
This brings us to #2… Now You See Me. And that would be an epic failure of predicting on my part. I grossly underestimated the picture and predicted it’d open sixth with $14.2 million. Boy, was I wrong. Garnering a rock solid A- Cinemascore average, See Me took the runner-up spot with an impressive $29.3 million. Audiences clearly were in the mood for something original and different and this seemed to be just the ticket.
And now to the enormous failure of After Earth. The M. Night Shyamalan directed sci-fi pic starring Will and Jaden Smith earned brutal reviews and, as it turns out, audience ambivalence. I incorrectly figured Smith’s star power would propel the film to a #1 opening and a $39.1 million opening weekend. Again… boy, was I wrong! Placing third, Earth debuted with a very weak $27.5 million. Earning a tepid B Cinemascore grade, expect Earth to fade fast in subsequent weekends.
Star Trek Into Darkness took fourth with $16.7 million, edging out fifth place Epic at $16.6 million. I predicted a bit more for each at $18.5M and $17.7M, respectively. And continuing its disappointing results in sixth place was The Hangover Part III, which made $16.3 million in its sophomore weekend (I predicted $17.1M).
So there you have it – not a great weekend for me predicting the new openers at all. I’ll try to do better next weekend. Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll have my opening weekend prediction for the Vince Vaughn/Owen Wilson comedy The Internship. Tuesday, my opening prediction for The Purge starring Ethan Hawke. And Wednesday, my usual Top Five predictions. Stay tuned!
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