Silver Linings Playbook. 12 Years a Slave. The Imitation Game. Room. La La Land. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Green Book. Jojo Rabbit. Nomadland. Belfast. The Fabelmans. American Fiction. What do those films have in common? They are the last 12 recipients of the Toronto Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award. Another commonality? Every one of them was nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Three (Slave, Green Book, Nomadland) won the top prize.
The surprise victor of People’s Choice at TIFF this morning is Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. Based on a novella by Stephen King, it finds the writer/director once again adapting the legendary author as he’s previously done with Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. Chuck is said to be more of crowdpleaser sci-fi drama. Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay lead the ensemble.
Chuck managed to outpace runners-up Anora and Emilia Pérez (both expected BP hopefuls) in Toronto. With the stats given above, Chuck has immediately entered the awards chat. That said, there are issues to consider before placing it in your BP ten.
First and foremost, Chuck has yet to acquire a stateside distributor. That will surely occur quickly. Yet we don’t know at press time whether it will release in 2024. If it does, it’s hard to argue with the power of TIFF’s biggest trophy. In 2023, American Fiction essentially became a contender in Canada and went onto 5 Academy nods with an Adapted Screenplay victory.
With 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic, Flanagan’s flick is generating nice notices. Frankly, though, I wasn’t really considering it a true contender until this TIFF announcement.
So what are Chuck‘s prospects now? In addition to Picture, Director and especially Adapted Screenplay are in the mix. If there’s an acting play, it might be Luke Skywalker himself Mark Hamill in supporting. If it continues to gain momentum, Editing, Original Score, and Visual Effects might be down ballot categories to keep an eye on. Toronto has potentially brought good luck to Chuck. It hasn’t been mentioned in my forecasts before. This will change at the next update later this week. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Toronto Film Festival has concluded its 2024 business with the reveal of its People’s Choice Award and the 1st and 2nd runners-up for the prize. This announcement is eagerly awaited by Oscar prognosticators and for good reason. Since the Academy expanded beyond 5 nominees for Best Picture (it now stands at a firm ten but has been 8 or 9 in other years), the People’s Choice recipient has received a BP nod in 14 of those 15 years. The exception was 2011 when Where Do We Go Now? was the victor. Therefore the past 12 winners were Oscar BP contenders.
In 2023, we saw Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction vaulted into contention and ended up with five total nominations, taking the statue for Adapted Screenplay. In 2010, there was only one runner-up. Since 2009, that means 44 features have been People’s Choice selections or runner-ups. Of those 44, 25 went onto Academy nominations for BP. This includes Best Picture winners The King’s Speech, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Green Book, Parasite, and Nomadland. In recent years, it’s become the norm for 2 of the 3 movies that Toronto names to make the Oscar ten. In addition to Fiction last year, The Holdovers was 1st runner-up.
All that context is pretext to an obvious point… this is a key precursor to the Oscars. Much speculation centered on Sean Baker’s Anora taking TIFF’s highest honor. The acclaimed film already picked up the Palme d’Or at Cannes and is seen as a threat to not only be nominated for Best Picture, but win. Mikey Madison is among the frontrunners for Best Actress. Instead it was 2nd runner-up. That third place showing, by the way, has been shared by Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, and The Power of the Dog.
First runner-up went to another Cannes premiere: Jacques Audiard’s musical crime flick Emilia Pérez. It’s also widely assumed to be a BP hopeful a few months down the line with potential acting nominations for Karla Sofia Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, and Selena Gomez. Recent 1st runners-up include Argo, Marriage Story, and the aforementioned The Holdovers.
Had Anora or Pérez gotten first place, no one would have been surprised. Same logic applies to Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night which was picked by some to win, place, or show. The actual recipient was unexpected and it’s The Life of Chuck from Mike Flanagan. It joins fellow People’s Choice honorees Precious, The King’s Speech, Silver Linings Playbook, The Imitation Game, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Green Book, Jojo Rabbit, Nomadland, Belfast, and The Fabelmans.
Mr. Flanagan is best known for his contributions to the horror genre. That includes adaptations of Stephen King novels Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. His largest claim to fame is his show running work on Netflix series The Haunting of Hill House, Midnight Mass, and The Fall of the House of Usher.
Chuck is a departure… sort of. It’s adapted from a Stephen King novella, but is more of a sci-fi effort. Reviews were solid (87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic). However, this was not really seen as a BP contender. Distribution and the release date are still influx. There’s no trailer.
Its awards narrative has certainly changed as of today. You can expect the People’s Choice champ starring Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay to pick up a distributor in a hurry. An awards campaign will surely follow. I’ve yet to even consider Chuck in my top 25 possibilities for BP. That won’t be the case when I pen my next update. Even if it’s not ultimately up for BP, Adapted Screenplay seems like a strong possibility now. Make no mistake. Toronto has given unanticipated life to Chuck.
The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.
What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.
Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.
The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).
In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).
Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Actress and that’s Carey Mulligan in Maestro. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
An Education (2009, Actress); Promising Young Woman (2020, Actress)
The Case for Carey Mulligan:
After likely coming up just a little short to Frances McDormand (Nomadland) in 2020 for PromisingYoungWoman, Mulligan has made the cut at key precursors with the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG. As Leonard Bernstein’s spouse Felicia, she has a number of Oscar clips to choose from alongside costar Bradley Cooper.
The Case Against Carey Mulligan:
So do Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and they’ve taken the hardware in ceremonies that have already occurred.
The Verdict:
The third time won’t be the charm for Mulligan.
My Case Of posts will continue with Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer…
The 33rd Annual Gotham Awards were held this evening and it was looking like a potential night of missed opportunities for Celine Song’s Past Lives… until the end. Of the five nominees for Best Feature, the acclaimed A24 romantic drama was really the only one with legit Best Picture aspirations at the Oscars. It did take the top prize over Passages, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One.
This was following its director Song surprisingly not being awarded Breakthrough Director. That instead went to A.V. Rockwell for A Thousand and One and made the announcement for the big race a bit suspenseful.
Of the 20 pictures that have taken Best Feature at the Oscars (this category has existed since 2004 and there was a tie one year), 12 have become Academy hopefuls for BP. Half of those (The Hurt Locker, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once) won. As a reminder, until this year, contenders for the Gothams were typically lower budgeted titles. Even with the budgetary restrictions removed, some heavy hitters like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon opted not to compete at this ceremony.
As far as Past Lives is concerned, the perception of it losing could’ve hindered its Oscar chances. So it helped itself tonight by doing what it was expected to do. That said, it missed another possible victory with Greta Lee coming up short in Outstanding Lead Performance. Lily Gladstone took the trophy… not for the non-contending Killers of the Flower Moon, but for The Unknown Country. Gladstone seems on her way to a Best Actress slot for Moon. This is another unexpected win for an awards body that frequently provides them.
Outstanding Supporting Performance went to Charles Melton in May December and he might’ve upped his Oscar stock more than anyone. This race saw potential victors like Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) end up behind him. **Note that the Gothams recently switched to ten nominees in lead and supporting without a divide for gender**. I’ve had Melton in my projected quintet recently and am feeling more and more confident about that. While Melton is a long shot to win at the big show, it should be noted that the previous two recipients (Troy Kotsur in CODA and Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere) took the Supporting Actor Oscar.
Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall received the Screenplay and International Feature awards. France did not select it as their pick for International Feature Film at the Academy Awards (where it probably would’ve been locked in a fierce competition with The Zone of Interest). Fall is a coin toss for BP inclusion so every little bit helps.
Finally, Four Daughters is your Documentary Feature pick (over 20 Days in Mariupol) as it increases it exposure.
Keep an eye on the blog for an Oscar predictions update in the coming days!
The highly unpredictable Gotham Awards released nominations today for their 2023 best. And, as expected, it was… unpredictable. There was added intrigue because the organization (dedicated to independent film) dropped their “low” budget requirements (traditionally $35 million or under) to qualify for inclusion. However, likely Oscar heavy hitters such as Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and The Color Purple took themselves out of contention.
That was not the case with Barbie, but it managed just one nomination in Outstanding Supporting Performance for Ryan Gosling. His costar from The Notebook Rachel McAdams will compete against him for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. Last year, the Gothams dropped their gender divisions with ten nominees in the lead and supporting derbies. We’ll cover those momentarily.
We start with Best Feature which showcases five pictures. From 2014-16, the Gotham recipient matched the Academy’s BP with Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The same occurred in 2020 with Nomadland and last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other recent years, there’s been at least one nominee that got into BP at the big dance, including The Favourite, Marriage Story, and Tár. The only recent exception in the last decade was in 2021.
This year’s contenders are Passages, Past Lives, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One. Only Past Lives seems poised to make BP at the Oscars and even that isn’t a foregone conclusion.
Andrew Haigh’s romantic ghost tale All of Us Strangers actually led all nominees with four: Screenplay, International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), and Outstanding Supporting Performance (Claire Foy).
Last year, four of the ten leading performance nominees managed Oscar nominations. That includes the two winners (Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once) as well as Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Cate Blanchett (Tár). Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who was snubbed by the Academy, won.
In addition to the aforementioned Scott for Strangers, the other nine up for lead in 2023 are Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Lily Gladstone (The Unknown Country), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Babetida Sadjo (Our Father, the Devil), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Michelle Williams (Showing Up), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). I would argue that unlike Fraser, Yeoh, and Blanchett from the previous ceremony, none of the nominees here are guaranteed Oscar spots. Those with the best chance? Probably Lee, Wright, Spaeny, and Scott. Gladstone should get in, but it will be for Killers of the Flower Moon and not Country.
The supporting derby in 2022 yielded three eventual nominees including Supporting Actor victor Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) as well as Hong Chau (The Whale) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway). Quan also took the Gotham.
Our ten supporting players for this year’s ceremony are the aforementioned Foy (All of Us Strangers) and McAdams (Margaret) and Gosling (Barbie). Then there’s Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone), Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Charles Melton (May December), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). With the exception of Foxx, I would say all nine have solid to at least feasible shots at making the Oscar cut (especially Gosling and Randolph).
How will it all shake out? Don’t look for the Gothams to provide too much guidance. Yet today’s announcement at least gives us a peek at movies and performers who could keep or gain momentum. Movies like The Holdovers, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and more that came up short today? They shouldn’t worry too much.
The Toronto Film Festival has wrapped and our friends up north have bestowed their People Choice’s Award along with the first and second runner-ups. Just how important is this prize in correlating to a Best Picture spot at the Oscars? Let’s go to the numbers and they’re telling.
Of the last 15 People’s Choice winners from TIFF, 14 received a BP nomination and 5 of them ultimately took the big prize: 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2018’s Green Book, and 2020’s Nomadland.
When it comes to the 1st and 2nd runners-up, 10 of them in the past 15 cycles have received BP attention. That includes three winners in 2012’s Argo, 2015’s Spotlight, and 2019’s Parasite.
So… it’s a key harbinger to Academy attention. And that’s why it’s a tad surprising that Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut American Fiction is the pick. That’s not because it didn’t get great reviews (it’s at 96% via 24 write-ups on RT). It just snuck up on prognosticators like myself with the TIFF love (there’s not even a trailer yet). The dramedy focused on race relations is now undeniably a factor in awards discussions as it moves towards its November 3rd debut. Jeffrey Wright’s lead performance and the Adapted Screenplay are also in the mix for attention.
The first runner-up, unsurprisingly, is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (which many were picking to receive People’s Choice). For Payne, it’s looked at as a return to form after his underwhelming predecessor Downsizing in 2017. This 1970s set Christmas tale appears poised for possible nods in BP (joining earlier Payne efforts Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska) and Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and certainly Original Screenplay.
The Boy and the Heron is Hayao Miyazaki’s latest acclaimed animated feature which opened TIFF. It’s pretty much a given that this will contend in Best Animated Feature though it could be a tall order to overcome frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Here are the facts: TIFF has boosted Fiction in a serious way. Keep an eye on the blog for further Oscar Predictions updates!
The 80th Venice Film Festival has signed off and the Grand Jury’s verdict has honored what’s expected to be a major awards player. From 2017-2020, the four films that took the Golden Lion (the fest’s top prize) went onto receive Best Picture nominations at the Oscars: The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, and Nomadland (another victor). 2021 French pic Happening and 2022’s documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed bucked the trend.
Yet I would suspect the correlation between Lion and BP nominee returns in 2023 as Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is the Lion recipient. Based on reaction from Italy, Things established itself as a major contender across many categories and this assists in cementing that. Expect to read lots about this movie in my prediction posts in the weeks and months ahead.
Venice likes to spread the wealth around. Poor Things didn’t take the directing or screenplay categories or name Emma Stone as Best Actress. Instead that statue went to Cailee Spaeny as Elvis’s young bride Priscilla in Sofia Coppola’s biopic. This does nothing but help Spaeney’s chances in what appears to be an already crowded Actress derby.
Peter Sarsgard is your Best Actor for Michael Franco’s Memory (he and Jessica Chastain are drawing raves for their work). Its distributor would need to mount a shrewd campaign for Academy voters to take notice.
The fest’s runner-up trophy (the Grand Jury Prize) went to Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist. Japan recently opted to select Perfect Days from Wim Wenders as their International Feature Film hopeful. Best Screenplay went to El Conde from Pablo Larrain, which will likely be Chile’s best best for IFF inclusion.
Poor Things was the odds on favorite for the Lion as Venice rolled along. Look for it to roar as the season continues.
We have reached 2020 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
2020 is a tricky year to consider. As we all know, it was a year dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us were working from home and theaters were essentially shuttered for the majority of the year.
Beyond the challenging, tragic, and unprecedented news events of 2020, it was just a strange year for motion pictures. Eight pictures contended for the big prize. I have the leading nominee (with 10) missing the BP cut. The next most nominated film had 6 mentions… and there’s 6 of them. The other BP contender had 5.
My point? Whittling these 8 down to 5 is not easy. Considering it took BP, Director (Chloe Zhao, the second female ever to win), and Actress (Frances McDormand), we can safely reserve a spot for Nomadland. As for the rest? Let’s get into it!
The Father
Florian Zeller’s devastasting drama about Alzheimer’s missed a nod in Director, but Anthony Hopkins landed his second Actor statue over the late Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, who was the frontrunner. Zeller did win Adapted Screenplay and this was also up for Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Film Editing, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Its two wins not only give me confidence of its inclusion in a quintet, but it could be argued this was runner-up to Nomadland.
Judas and the Black Messiah
Daniel Kaluuya won Supporting Actor for his performance as Fred Hampton in Shaka King’s historical drama. Costar Lakeith Stanfield was up in the same race andit was nominated for Original Screenplay and Cinematography. A second statue was given to H.E.R. for her original song “Fight for You”.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No but I certainly struggled with this one. The lack of directing and editing noms have it on the outside looking in.
Mank
This is where it gets complicated. David Fincher’s jaded Netflix aired look at Old Hollywood easily led the program with 10 mentions and it won Cinematography and Production Design. Fincher was also in contention for his behind the camera work. Other nods went to Gary Oldman for Actor, Amanda Seyfried in Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Surprisingly enough… I’m saying no. Despite the haul, it is the only one of the 8 nominees not up for screenplay. Furthermore the Film Editing omission feels significant. It certainly isn’t normal to project the leader not making the final five. However, rules are meant to be broken.
Minari
Lee Isaac Chung also garnered a directing spot in that quintet while Youn yuh-Jung was the Supporting Actress recipient in this family drama. Other nods: Actor (Steven Yeun), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I went back and forth. This seemed to gather strength as the season wore on and not just with yuh-Jung. I think it squeaks in.
Promising Young Woman
Emerald Fennell was up for director and won Adapted Screenplay for this revenge dramedy. Carey Mulligan made the Actress cut (and may have been second to McDormand) and it was in for Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The victory in Adapted Screenplay over four other BP hopefuls helps solidify that decision.
Sound of Metal
The impressive haul for the indie drama is Riz Ahmed in Actor, Paul Raci in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and wins in Film Editing and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I again went back and forth. While director Darius Marder was left out, it’s the Editing and Sound combo that give it an edge over the three that got left out.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7‘s six nods came (in addition to BP) in Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Song. The Aaron Sorkin political drama is the only BP vier not to take home a single trophy.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No though I struggled again. This Netflix pic undoubtedly didn’t match awards expectations after it was once seen as the on paper favorite. The 0 for 6 performance make it easier to elevate some of the others.
And there you have it. That means my 2020 vision of the Final Five is:
The Father
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
2021 will be be up soon! If you missed my entries covering 2009-19, you can find them here:
The past 24 hours have likely been impactful when it comes to figuring the puzzle that is Oscar prognosticating. The BAFTAs and the DGAs announced their winners. The latter went as expected. The Brits, on the other hand, showed they are still capable of surprises.
Across that pond, Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made a lot of noise. The German WWI epic won 7 out of its 14 nominations. This includes Best Film and Director. I predicted those categories would go to The Banshees of Inisherin and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Side note – I went 13 for 22 overall on the BAFTA picks. Quiet also took Adapted Screenplay over my favored Living. The other four were Film Not in the English Language, Cinematography, Original Score, and Sound. I called 3 of those 4, but had Babylon listed in Score instead. Ironically I picked Quiet to take Production Design. That went to Babylon.
While this is a great BAFTA performance for Quiet, I don’t believe it dramatically changes its dynamic at the Oscars. I still don’t view it as a threat to emerge victorious in Best Picture. It’s important to remember that just 3 out of the past 10 BAFTA winners ended up nabbing the biggest race at the Academy Awards. Nomadland (from 2020) is the only match of the previous 8 ceremonies. And, of course, Berger isn’t even nominated in Director for the Oscars.
In the lead acting derbies, I correctly called the victors with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Austin Butler (Elvis). This solidifies each as the frontrunners and it especially hurts Colin Farrell for Banshees. I would say he needed this to have any real shot at Best Actor on March 12th (unless he somehow manages an upset at SAG next weekend).
Banshees made up for the Best Film and Actor losses in the supporting fields. Kerry Condon is Supporting Actress which I projected. She has emerged as the alternative to Oscar favorite Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. One of the massive upsets is Barry Keoghan winning Supporting Actor over the heavily favored Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once (who was sweeping until today). I still believe Quan is looking good for Oscar.
Further races I got right: Banshees in Original Screenplay; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as Animated Film (continuing its sweep); Elvis in Costume Design; Everything Everywhere for Editing; Avatar: The Way of Water‘s Visual Effects; Banshees for Outstanding British Film; and Aftersun for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer.
Where I went wrong: Navalny is Best Documentary over Fire of Love and Elvis took Casting instead of Everything Everywhere and won Make-Up & Hair over The Whale. That means Banshees and Elvis each earned 4 statues. Nothing else won more than one.
As I relayed in my DGA prediction, the directorial recipient there has matched the Oscar winning director 19 of 22 times in the 21st century. The Daniels were honorees for Everything Everywhere. Even though Everything won only Editing at BAFTA, I still think it’s the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars (as are the Daniels).
Bottom line: Quiet was loud at BAFTA. Yet the most significant storyline with Academy impact could be Butler and Blanchett firming up their standings.
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