We’re in the dog days of August as Weapons seeks to three-peat at #1 this weekend though a fascinating challenger could emerge depending on Netflix’s reporting. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event looks to capitalize on its massively successful animated streaming numbers with a Saturday and Sunday engagement of theatrical screenings. We also have Ethan Coen’s dark comedy Honey Don’t! out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
KPop Demon Hunters is already the highest viewed Netflix animated picture in history. The streamer decided to give it the silver screen sing-along treatment this Saturday and Sunday only. Here’s the catch: Netflix usually doesn’t report their numbers. I think they could make an exception due to the unprecedented nature of this release. If they do, I believe low teens is doable and maybe even more. If it manages to post a 1st or 2nd place debut, I would think Netflix would want the bragging rights. We shall see what they decide.
As for Don’t!, my lowly $1.8 million projection won’t get it in the top five regardless of whether KPop unveils its grosses. After receiving middling reviews from Cannes and being put out on a meager 1200 screens, look for this to fade rapidly.
That leaves holdovers and Weapons may see a drop in the mid 30s to repeat at #1. In fact, the top five should remain the same quintet if KPop isn’t in the mix. However, I suspect Nobody 2 might have the largest percentage drop and that could result in a fall from third to fifth (or fourth to sixth). That would allow The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 to each rise a spot with Freakier Friday either remaining runner-up or being third.
Here’s my top 6 take with the caveat that KPop‘s placement might not occur:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
**2. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
3. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. Nobody
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results (August 15-17)
Weapons easily pummeled the competition yet again in its sophomore frame with $24.4 million, right in line with my $24.9 million call. Zach Cregger’s critically hailed horror thriller is up to $88 million after ten days.
Freakier Friday was second in weekend #2 with $14.2 million, slightly exceeding my forecast of $13 million. The Disney sequel has made $54 million.
Action sequel Nobody 2 with Bob Odenkirk opened at the lower end of expectations with $9.2 million, failing to catch my $11.3 million projection. While it managed to outdo its 2021 predecessor, the original faced COVID challenges.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps was fourth with $9 million (I said $7.5 million). The MCU pic’s tally is $247 million after four weeks.
The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. The 29% decline meant it surpassed my $5.5 million take. The animated sequel has earned $53 million in three weeks.
Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:
The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.
Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.
As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
2. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $13 million
3. Nobody 2
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (August 8-10)
Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.
Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.
The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).
The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.
Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.
Bob Odenkirk is back in fighting mode when Nobody 2 debuts August 15th. The action flick is the follow-up to 2021’s original which managed to do decent business considering its release in COVID times. Costars include Connie Nielsen, John Ortiz, RZA, Colin Hanks, Christopher Lloyd, Michael Ironside, Gage Munroe, Paisley Cadorath, and Sharon Stone. Timo Tjahjanto directs.
Released in March of 2021 when the pandemic was still presenting significant challenges to theaters, Nobody took in a better than anticipated $6.7 million and legged out to $27 million domestically. That was enough to warrant a sequel and expectations are higher.
I’ll say this could come close doubling what its predecessor made out of the gate nearly four and a half years ago. That means low double digits to possibly low teens.
Nobody 2 opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
As if the Golden Globe nominations coming tomorrow morning weren’t confusing enough to figure out, we also have the nods on the same day for the Critics Choice Awards. They’re frequently a reliable indicator of which way the Academy could go. However, there’s a caveat. While both branches choose ten pictures, the other races can fluctuate between 5-7 nominees. Generally Director and the lead acting races are seven while supporting and the screenplay derbies are six. The rest are a rather (needlessly unpredictable) mix. This show also contains some categories not seen in others like Best Ensemble, action, comedy, and sci-fi/horror pics, and Young Performer.
Here’s my best shot at projecting what the critics will do. The ceremony itself hits January 9th… the same day as the Globes. And as I did with the Globes, I’ll name runners-up and second alternates…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Last Duel
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA
Second Alternate: Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Best Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
C’Mon C’Mon
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Runner-Up: Being the Ricardos
Second Alternate: The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
The Last Duel
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Dune
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
Belle
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Runner-Up: Raya and the Last Dragon
Second Alternate: The Summit of the Gods
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: I’m Your Man
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spencer
Second Alternate: The French Dispatch
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spencer
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Makeup
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Spencer
Runner-Up: The Last Duel
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Cyrano
Dune
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: The French Dispatch
Second Alternate: Belfast
Best Score
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Every Letter” from Cyrano
Second Alternate: “Here I Am” from Respect
Best Visual Effects (note that it is unlikely that The Matrix Resurrections or Spider-Man: No Way Home screened in time for inclusion)
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Eternals
Finch
Free Guy
Godzilla vs. Kong
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: The Green Knight
Second Alternate: The Suicide Squad
Best Action Movie
Predicted Nominees:
Black Widow
Dune
The Harder They Fall
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Nobody
Second Alternate: Eternals
Best Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar
Don’t Look Up
Free Guy
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Red Rocket
Runner-Up: Cruella
Second Alternate: Zola
Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie
Predicted Nominees:
Candyman
Dune
Finch
Free Guy
A Quiet Place Part II
Runner-Up: The Suicide Squad
Second Alternate: Titane
Best Young Performer
Predicted Nominees:
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Jude Hill, Belfast
Emilia Jones, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Millicent Simmonds, A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Demi Singleton, King Richard
This list means I’m projecting the following number of nominations for these movies:
12 Nominations
Dune
11 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
10 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
King Richard
7 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth
6 Nominations
CODA
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cyrano, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mass, Spencer
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
1 Nomination
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Being the Ricardos, Belle, Black Widow, Candyman, Drive My Car, Eternals, Finch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, The Harder They Fall, A Hero, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Pig, A Quiet Place Part II, Red Rocket, The Suicide Squad, Tick Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Reaction (along with that for the Globes) up tomorrow!
Bob Odenkirk is one of the all-time great yellers. Go back and watch his marvelous comedy sketch series Mr. Show from 25 years ago if you don’t believe it. When Gene Hackman hollers, it can be terrifying. With Odenkirk, it’s unexpected and hilarious. The idea of casting him in a John Wick type of role (from the writer of the franchise no less) screams for more than what’s presented onscreen in the very brief runtime of Nobody. Post watch, I couldn’t escape the idea that a lot of cool stuff might happen following the events of what I’d just witnessed. What’s presented is effective in spurts and occasionally dull and repetitive in chunks.
Dull and repetitive aptly describes Hutch’s existence as the opening montage shows. He works a boring job. His marriage to Becca (Connie Nielsen) is devoid of any spark. Like clockwork, he forgets to take out the garbage. The middle class tedium is disrupted by a home burglary where Hutch catches the intruders redhanded but decides against using his golf clubs to take them down. From the police to his spouse to his kids, he’s seen as a weakling. However, when he discovers his little girl’s kitty cat bracelet was lifted, his true identity surfaces.
Hutch was once an “auditor” for the government. Not the numbers crunching kind. More of the bone crunching variety. He’s a former assassin that comes from a line of them including dad (Christopher Lloyd). RZA is also part of the clan (he’s heard more than seen because he’s in hiding). No longer content to hide his own particular set of skills after the bracelet heist, Hutch sets out to find the thieves and rough up anyone else who stands in the way.
One of the audited victims turns out to be the brother of a Russian mobster (Aleksei Serebryakov) who moonlights as an aspiring nightclub singer. With Hutch on his wanted list, the Wick-ish violence commences. If this all sounds like a tremendous amount of strange fun, it should. Doc Brown as an octogenarian renegade? Check. Our Breaking Bad standout breaking skulls? Check.
Sometimes it is. When Hutch first lets down his guard on a bus, it’s a violent delight. It never really tops that sequence that arrives early. Derek Kolstad (who wrote all three Wick flicks) is behind this (along with Hardcore Henry director Ilya Naishuller). The screenplay hints at our lead’s backstory. It gives us reason to believe Odenkirk and Lloyd and RZA have been on some wild adventures. The world building that’s become such an integral part of Keanu Reeves and his headshots isn’t present in Nobody. This is far more contained and that applies to Odenkirk’s performance. He’s a terrific comedic presence and, as mentioned, a glorious wailer. Those skills aren’t at the forefront in this though he commendably looks comfortable offing Euro baddies. I just didn’t find the concept sizzling enough to sustain itself before it kinda burnt out.
After experiencing the typical COVID-19 related delays that have greeted nearly all movies in the past year, Universal Pictures releases the revenge thriller Nobody next weekend. It comes from Hardcore Henry director Ilya Naishuller with a screenplay by Derek Kolstad (behind the scripts of the John Wick franchise). Bob Odenkirk of Better Call Saul fame stars as a mild mannered family man who decides to let his Death Wish freak flag fly. The supporting cast includes Connie Nielsen, RZA, and Christopher Lloyd.
Originally scheduled for a late summer 2020 premiere, Nobody has experienced four date changes since before settling on its late March bow. Planned for a rollout on 2400 screens, the pic could appeal to fans of Odenkirk’s popular series and action fans in general. There are still obvious challenges with theaters being at various capacity levels, but this could manage a haul between $6-9 million in my view. I’ll go in the middle of that range.
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