Jafar Panahi’s political thriller It Was Just an Accident was a bit of a surprise Palme d’Or victor at Cannes over Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. However, its writer/director is no stranger to festival love. His 2000 work The Circle took top prize at Venice while 2015’s Taxi won highest honors in Berlin.
With a cast led by Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, and Hadis Pakbaten, Accident is a co-production between Panahi’s native Iran, France, and Luxembourg. Panahi has drawn headlines in recent years due to conflicts with the Iranian government including arrests. While his works are banned in his homeland, his filmography has drawn acclaim everywhere else and this is no exception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 88.
Either France or Luxembourg could submit Accident as their pick for International Feature Film at the Oscars. If the former doesn’t, the latter almost certainly would. The French have seen lots of their selections win or be nominated. Luxembourg would be vying for its first ever nominee. I also wouldn’t discount Panahi contending in Director and Original Screenplay. If a combination of those nods occurred, Best Picture is not off the table. After all, four of the last five Palme recipients have made final cut in the biggest category of them all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The National Society of Film Critics, composed of approximately 60 reviewers, is considered one of the higher profile groups to bestow yearly best of honors. They did so today and it was a good day for Todd Field’s Tár.
NSFC was enthralled by the psychological profile as it won Best Film in addition to Fields for his screenplay and Cate Blanchett in the title role. In its previous 56 years, the Film recipient here has only matched the Oscar BP nine times. It is worth noting that it’s occurred 4 out of the last 7 years with 2015’s Spotlight, 2016’s Moonlight, 2019’s Parasite, and 2020’s Nomadland. 7 of the past 10 NSFC victors were at least nominated for BP from the Academy. That bodes well for Tár. At this point, it would be pretty shocking if it was left off the list of 10 on Oscar nom morning.
This group also names runners-up. For Best Film, it was Aftersun. Director Charlotte Wells came in first in her race with Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) in second. I’ve yet to seriously consider Aftersun as a top 10 finisher at the big dance. It’s possible, but perhaps a stretch. Only two of the NSFC winners in the previous decade took Oscar with Alfonso Cuaròn (Roma) and Chloe Zhao (Nomadland).
Blanchett’s trophy is no surprise. The other strong hopeful for Best Actress is Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once. She came in second. It’s worth mentioning that Blanchett won NSFC nine years ago for Blue Jasmine before translating that to her second Oscar. A third could be in the cards.
The lead Actor award went to Colin Farrell for both After Yang and The Banshees of Inisherin. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was runner-up. Farrell looks assured a spot in the Academy quintet (for Banshees) while Mescal is gunning for a wide open fifth spot. You have to go back to 2016 (Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea) to find the previous NSFC/Oscar match.
Our Supporting Actress derby (also pretty wide open) went to the soft frontrunner with Kerry Condon in Banshees. Nina Hoss (Tár) nabbed the second most votes. If there’s an unexpected performer to pop up on nomination morning, it could be Hoss (especially given the uncertainty of her category).
It was smooth sailing for Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor as he continued his expected coronation as the season rolls along. The Everything Everywhere All at Once standout beat Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), who’s a bubble possibility for Oscar.
Polish pic EO is your Best Film Not in the English Language with No Bears (out of Iran) second. The latter was not submitted for the Academy’s consideration. EO also took home an unanticipated win for its Cinematography with Nope as the runner-up.
Finally, Best Nonfiction Film was All the Beauty and the Bloodshed with Descendant second. Both are expected to contend for the Documentary cut at the Oscars.
We are in the heart of awards season, folks! My final prediction for the Golden Globes are coming your way next…
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