Oscar Predictions: Moana 2

Moana 2, out this Thanksgiving weekend, was originally conceived as a Disney+ limited series before morphing into a proper sequel with a theatrical release. Now it’s widely expected to set the all-time record Turkey Day frame opening. David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller direct with Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk returning for voiceover work. Khaleesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are among new cast lending behind the mic talents.

In 2016, Moana set the Friday to Sunday premiere record over Thanksgiving which still stands today… for the moment. The animated adventure also picked up two Oscar nominations in Animated Feature (where it lost to fellow Disney blockbuster Zootopia) and the Original Song “How Far I’ll Go”. That track came up short to “City of Stars” from La La Land.

The Mouse Factory waited until the last minute to lift the review embargo off of the sequel. It has a so-so 72% on Rotten Tomatoes (its predecessor has 95%) and 57 on Metacritic (Moana landed 81). That reaction likely won’t nab it one of the five slots in Animated Feature (though Disney should score a spot with Inside Out 2). As for songs, Lin-Manuel Miranda was involved in the tunes eight years ago. Without his involvement, don’t expect Moana 2‘s ditties to resonate with Academy voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Moana 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to smash its own Thanksgiving opening records when Moana 2 lands in theaters on Wednesday, November 27th. The sequel to 2016’s musical adventure is directed by David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller. Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk reprise their voiceover work. Klaheesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are new faces behind the mic.

Eight Turkey years ago, Moana took in $248 million domestically. It set the all-time Friday to Sunday opening Thanksgiving frame high mark with $56.6 million and that record still stands. Ralph Breaks the Internet from the Mouse Factory holds the five-day best of premiere at $84.7 million (just edging Moana‘s $82 million). Moana 2 seems poised to rather easily surpass those figures.

The follow-up is additionally looking to top Frozen II‘s largest three and five-day grosses for any picture over the holiday. That would be $85.9 million and $125 million, respectively. I don’t think that’s a guarantee, but part 1 is well-regarded enough that I think it gets there with some room to spare.

Moana 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Monday)