Tag: nicole kidman

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 6th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means I’m back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. So what’s transpired over the past seven days? Quite a bit! The Girl on the Train, which opens tomorrow, was screened with very mixed critical reaction. It had been at the lower end (#24 last week) of possible Best Picture nominees, but it now appears its chances have been completely derailed. Don’t expect it to appear on the list again. I do still have Emily Blunt as a long-shot Actress possibility, but Haley Bennett’s work in Supporting Actress and an Adapted Screenplay nomination have also fallen off.

We also got a trailer for Pablo Larrain’s Jackie, which could be a contender in several races. And we received official word that Ben Affleck’s Prohibition era crime pic Live by Night will be released in limited fashion in late December, qualifying it for the Academy’s consideration.

And there was the debut at the New York Film Festival of Ana DuVernay’s race relations documentary 13th. It’s important to note that no doc has been nominated for Best Picture, so it’s got a steep hill to climb. Yet it’s possible and joins the contenders of hopefuls this week.

*A final note before we get to predictions. It is my plan throughout October to keep with listing 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 in the other races. By the first week of November, this will shift to 20 for Best Picture and ten in the others.

And with that, this week’s predictions:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Moonlight (PR: 7)

8. Loving (PR: 8)

9. Jackie (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

11. Arrival (PR: 11)

12. Sully (PR: 12)

13. Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)

15. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)

16. 13th (PR: Not Ranked)

17. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 16)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

19. 20th Century Women (PR: 18)

20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

21. The Founder (PR: 22)

22. Gold (PR: 21)

23. Allied (PR: 23)

24. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

The Girl on the Train

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 9)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)

8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 7)

9. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)

11. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)

13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)

15. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)

12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 10)

13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)

15. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 14)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 12)

9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 11)

14. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Rachel Weisz, Denial

Sally Field, My Name is Doris

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)

5. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)

8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 10)

9. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 14)

10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 8)

12. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 7)

13. Lucas Hedges, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 11)

14. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 13)

15. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothy Spall, Denial

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)

4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)

5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 10)

9. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

10. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)

11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)

12. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 13)

13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train

Sienna Miller, Live by Night

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. La Land Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 8)

8. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 9)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

10. The Lobster (PR: 10)

11. Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

12. Zootopia (PR: 11)

13. Gold (PR: 13)

14. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Birth of a Nation

Passengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 4)

4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: 9)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

8. Arrival (PR: 7)

9. Live by Night (PR: 13)

10. Indignation (PR: 11)

11. Elle (PR: 8)

12. Love & Friendship (PR: 10)

13. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)

14. A Monster Calls (PR: 15)

15. Denial (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Girl on the Train

And there you have it, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 29th Edition

It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women. 

As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Silence  (PR: 4)

4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

7. Moonlight (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 8)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Jackie (PR: 11)

11. Arrival (PR: 12)

12. Sully (PR: 13)

13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)

15. Live by Night (PR: 14)

16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)

18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)

20. Passengers (PR: 25)

21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Founder (PR: 22)

23. Allied (PR: 18)

24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)

Dropped Out:

Collateral Beauty

Hacksaw Ridge

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)

10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)

13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)

14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Robert Zemeckis, Allied

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)

11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)

13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)

14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)

12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rooney Mara, Una

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)

7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)

10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)

11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)

12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)

13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)

14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)

8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)

10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)

12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)

14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La Land Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)

10. The Lobster (PR: 8)

11. Zootopia (PR: 11)

12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

13. Gold (PR: 12)

14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Collateral Beauty

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 3)

3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Lion (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Elle (PR: 11)

9. Sully (PR: 8)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)

11. Indignation (PR: 13)

12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

13. Live by Night (PR: 9)

14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denial

And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 22nd Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 4)

3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)

6. Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Lion (PR: 8)

8. Loving (PR: 6)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

11. Jackie (PR: 12)

12. Arrival (PR: 10)

13. Sully (PR: 14)

14. Live by Night (PR: 19)

15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)

18. Allied (PR: 17)

19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)

21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)

22. The Founder (PR: 20)

23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)

24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)

25. Passengers (PR: 18)

Dropped Out:

The Girl on the Train

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)

9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)

11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)

12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)

14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)

15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)

4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)

9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)

12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)

15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sally Hawkins, Maudie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)

9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)

11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)

12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)

15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bill Nighy, Their Finest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)

5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)

10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)

11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)

12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)

13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)

15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 5)

5. Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)

10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

11. Zootopia (PR: 10)

12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)

14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Passengers

Miss Sloane

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 4)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

7. Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Sully (PR: 8)

9. Live by Night (PR: 12)

10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)

11. Elle (PR: 10)

12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)

13. Indignation (PR: 15)

14. Denial (PR: 13)

15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)

And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…

 

 

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!

The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.

As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.

Let’s go to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Silence (PR: 3)

4) Fences (PR: 4)

5) Moonlight (PR: 5)

6) Loving (PR: 6)

7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

8) Lion (PR: 11)

9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10) Arrival (PR: 13)

11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)

12) Jackie (PR: 12)

13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14) Sully (PR: 16)

15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)

16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)

17) Allied (PR: 19)

18) Passengers (PR: 17)

19) Live by Night (PR: 25)

20) The Founder (PR: 21)

21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)

23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)

DROPPED OUT:

American Pastoral, Moana, Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)

5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)

11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)

12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)

2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)

7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)

8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)

9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)

12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)

4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)

14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)

15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)

13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

John Legend, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)

10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)

11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)

12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)

15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)

Dropped Out:

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) La La Land (PR: 3)

2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3) Moonlight (PR: 2)

4) Loving (PR: 4)

5) Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8) The Lobster (PR: 8)

9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

10) Zootopia (PR: 11)

11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)

13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Passengers (PR: 13)

15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Founder

Gold

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences (PR: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

4) Silence (PR: 4)

5) Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Arrival (PR: 8)

7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8) Sully (PR: 12)

9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

10) Elle (PR: 11)

11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)

12) Live by Night (PR: 13)

13) Denial (PR: 14)

14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Pastoral

And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…

 

 

Oscar Watch: Lion

Over the weekend, the Toronto Film Festival screenings have dampened the hopes of some pictures to garner Oscar attention, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral and Oliver Stone’s Snowden. Yet they can bolster the chances of others and that appears to be the case with Lion.

The pic tells the true life tale of a young Indian boy who is separated from his family in the mid 1980s and uses the resources of Google Earth to relocate them 25 years later. First time director Garth Davis is behind the camera and the film is produced by the Weinstein Company, whose founder Harvey has a knack for Oscar campaigning. Due to the participation of its lead Dev Patel and the geographic location, some early reviews have drawn comparisons to Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire, which won the big prize eight years ago.

While not all critical notices have been raves, Lion has been singled out as an inspiring crowd pleaser that the Academy could warm to. A Best Picture nod seems in reach and that could extend to Davis and Luke Davies for his Adapted Screenplay. As for the performers, Patel seems most likely to receive recognition. It isn’t 100% certain whether he will be campaigned for in lead Actor or Supporting. If he goes lead, there’s a chance that young Sunny Pawar (playing Patel’s character during the first hour) could get some buzz. Rooney Mara and especially Nicole Kidman could be factors in Supporting Actress.

My Oscar Watch will continue as Toronto does…

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 8th Edition

As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.

Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.

Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1) La Land Land

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Silence

4) Fences

5) Moonlight

6) Loving

7) Manchester by the Sea

8) Nocturnal Animals

9) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

10) The Birth of a Nation

11) Lion

12) Jackie

13) Arrival

14) 20th Century Women

15) Hidden Figures

16) Sully

17) Passengers

18) Hell or High Water

19) Allied

20) Moana

21) The Founder

22) The Jungle Bok

23) Collateral Beauty

24) Gold

25) Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence

4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

5) Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival

11) Garth Davis, Lion

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie

15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Denzel Washington, Fences

2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving

4) Michael Keaton, The Founder

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Other Possibilities:

6) Tom Hanks, Sully

7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

9) Dev Patel, Lion

10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Viola Davis, Fences

3) Natalie Portman, Jackie

4) Ruth Negga, Loving

5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Other Possibilities:

6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

9) Amy Adams, Arrival

10) Rooney Mara, Una

11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

15) Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2) Liam Neeson, Silence

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

10) Timothy Spall, Denial

11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

13) John Legend, La La Land

14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully

15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Other Possibilities:

6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

9) Nicole Kidman, Lion

10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars

15) Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) Moonlight

3) La La Land

4) Loving

5) Jackie

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women

7) Hell or High Water

8) The Lobster

9) The Birth of a Nation

10) The Founder

11) Zootopia

12) Gold

13) Passengers

14) Rules Don’t Apply

15) Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Nocturnal Animals

4) Silence

5) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

6) Lion

7) Hidden Figures

8) Arrival

9) Love & Friendship

10) The Girl on the Train

11) Elle

12) Sully

13) Live by Night

14) Denial

15) The Jungle Book

And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

The summer movie season has wound to a close and we can feel the autumn season just around the corner. That means football, leaves changing, and back to school. It also means the 2016 fall movie season is about to begin and that means – early Oscar speculation!!

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it may seem a bit too early for that, but it isn’t. The film festival season will be starting before we know it with Venice, Toronto, Telluride and New York on deck. A host of Oscar hopefuls will receive their first screenings and generate their first buzz. So this week – as I have in years past – I roll out my first round of Oscar predictions. This will be done in six installments beginning with Supporting Actress today and continuing daily with Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and the big dog – Picture. Each post will predict the five nominees (or in the case of Picture – five to ten). As the week wear on, I’ll be increasing my predictions to a weekly feature on the blog.

For Supporting Actress, let’s take a little trip down memory lane with my predictions in 2014 and 2015. Two years back, my earliest predictions yielded two out of the eventual five nominated performers (including winner Patricia Arquette for Boyhood). Last year, these initial predictions gave us three of the five and, in a way, four. At the time, there was uncertainty as to whether Alicia Vikander would be campaigned for in lead or supporting for The Danish Girl and I predicted her at the time for Actress. The campaign went with supporting and she was the winner. Let’s get to it!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

At this juncture, I’d say there’s no shoo-in nominees but Michelle Williams in this fall’s Manchester by the Sea is about as close as it gets. The pic has already screened at festivals to raves with many critics singling out her work.

Ang Lee’s November war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk looks to be a player in many categories and that could certainly trickle down to Kristen Stewart. The trailer for Moonlight seems to indicate a very meaty and Oscar-baity type role for Naomie Harris. There are questions surrounding how many nominations the acclaimed slavery pic The Birth of a Nation will receive (more on that in future posts), but Aja Naomi King has gotten acclaim for her role already.

As for a fifth, I’m just going to go with a total and complete wild card: Bryce Dallas Howard in December’s Gold, which not much is known about at the moment (no trailer even). Why? Well, this category is quite unformed at the moment, so why not? If it pans out, I’ll look really smart!

There’s a slew of others as possibilities, including multiple possibilities for 20th Century Women, American Pastoral and The Girl on the Train (with both Fanning sisters no less) and we shall see how it plays out in the coming weeks and months. For now…

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Other Possibilities:

Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train

Jennifer Connelly, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Rosemarie DeWitt, La La Land

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

Rebecca Ferguson, The Girl on the Train

Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Jennifer Jason Leigh, LBJ

Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane

Zoe Saldana, Live by Night

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans

Kate Winslet, Collateral Beauty

We’ll get to Supporting Actor tomorrow!

Secret in Their Eyes Box Office Prediction

Even with its high profile cast of Oscar nominees and winners, this Friday’s Secret in Their Eyes may well be another fall 2015 adult themed title that fails to bring in an audience of any major significance. The film, from Breach director and Hunger Games and Captain Phillips screenwriter Billy Ray, is an FBI thriller based on an Oscar-winning 2009 Argentine effort and this remake stars Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts.

Secret seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and it’s picked up zero Oscar buzz, which could have helped. As mentioned, we’ve seen adult themed titles with big stars like Our Brand is Crisis, Burnt, and Steve Jobs all stumble recently and I have a feeling this is headed down a similar path.

Secret in Their Eyes opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

For my The Night Before prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

Oscar History: 2010

In my ongoing series of Oscar History posts, we arrive at what happened during the year 2010. This was quite a strong year for movies and, unlike other years, I can’t really quibble with the ten pictures that were nominated.

I can, however, differ with what won: Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. While this was a very solid and entertaining picture, I would have definitely put at least three of the other nominees above it: Black Swan, Inception, and my favorite of the year, The Social Network. Other nominees were 127 Hours, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone. 

Picture/Director matched up as Tom Hooper’s work in King’s Speech would win over Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), and David O. Russell (The Fighter). I may have found a spot for Christopher Nolan’s visually striking work in Inception. 

The love for The King’s Speech continued in Best Actor as Colin Firth was honored for his portrayal as King George VI. He triumphed over Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), and James Franco (127 Hours). It’s worth noting that Franco co-hosted the Oscars that year with Anne Hathaway. It wasn’t too memorable.

While his supporting players were showered with love, Mark Wahlberg was snubbed for his anchoring performance in The Fighter. Others worthy of mention: Leonardo DiCaprio in either Inception or Shutter Island and Robert Duvall for Get Low.

Natalie Portman was a bit of a no-brainer pick for her tour de force work in Black Swan in the Actress race, beating out Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).

I was a little surprised to see Bening’s Kids lead costar Julianne Moore left out. Franco’s co-host Anne Hathaway would’ve been a solid choice for her fine work in Love and Other Drugs. The Oscar voters rarely honor comedy, but they could have here with Emma Stone in her hit Easy A, as well.

Supporting Actor honored Christian Bale as Mark Wahlberg’s drug addicted brother in The Fighter. The other nominees were John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech).

I might have found room for either Andrew Garfield or Justin Timberlake in The Social Network. And keeping the snubbed comedy theme going, here’s an outside the box mention: Rob Corddry for his hilarious work in Hot Tub Time Machine.

The Fighter also won in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo, who edged out her co-star Amy Adams. The other nominees: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, and Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. The voters could have certainly nominated either Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey for their roles in Black Swan.

And that’s your Oscar History of 2010, my friends. We’ll get to 2011 soon…

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

It’s hard to believe but we are two thirds of the way through the calendar year and that means my first round of incredibly early Oscar predictions are making their way to the blog! Some caveats: it’s early. Real early. Truth be told, most of the main contenders in all the major categories will be rolling out in the fall. Many will be screening at the upcoming film fests like Toronto and New York, among others. As always, those festivals will help the picture become clearer over the next couple of months. Usually by Thanksgiving or early December, we’ve got a pretty good idea on how things are looking.

That said, I started my predictions for 2014 at the same time last year. In the Supporting Actress race, which I’m covering today, my impossibly early predictions yielded two of the five eventual nominees, Laura Dern for Wild and winner Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. It’s also worth noting that I predicted Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything, who was nominated in the Lead Actress category. Let’s talk about how things look right now:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Already we seem to have one performer who appears to be a shoo in for a nod: Rooney Mara for Todd Haynes’s 1950s set lesbian romance Carol, which premiered to raves at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this summer. It would be very shocking not to see Mara included, unless she’s campaigned for in the Actress race. That seems unlikely because the studio should be putting her costar Cate Blanchett in that race.

After that – much uncertainty. The Irish immigration drama Brooklyn hit the festival circuit to a rapturous response and that could bode well for Julie Walters. Director Quentin Tarantino knows how to get his actors nominated which could mean a nom for The Hateful Eight’s Jennifer Jason Leigh. Director David O. Russell is exceptional at seeing his performers gets nods and his December release Joy could see kudos for either Virginia Madsen or Diane Ladd (I’m leaving both off, for now).

Elizabeth Olsen has had some critically applauded roles and her performance as Hank Williams’ wife in the biopic I Saw the Light could garner attention. So could Kate Winslet in the upcoming Steve Jobs biopic.

The rest of the large field is filled with familiar names and some not. Remember the name Emayatzy Corinealdi for her work in the Don Cheadle/Miles Davis biopic Miles Ahead. And we have previous winners like Blanchett, Jane Fonda, Julia Roberts, Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman and Rachel Weisz in the mix.

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Elizabeth Olsen, I Saw the Light

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

 

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Cate Blanchett, Truth

Helena Bonham Carter,  Suffragette

Jessica Chastain, The Martian

Emayatzy Corinealdi, Miles Ahead

Marion Cotillard, Macbeth

Ann Dowd, Our Brand is Crisis

Jane Fonda, Youth

Nicole Kidman, Genius

Diane Ladd, Joy

Melanie Laurent, By the Sea

Laura Linney, Genius

Virginia Madsen, Joy

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Ellen Page, Freeheld

Julia Roberts, The Secret in their Eyes

Amy Ryan, Bridge of Spies

Meryl Streep, Suffragette

Rachel Weisz, Youth

And there’s part one of my early Oscar picks. Supporting Actor coming your way tomorrow…