Next weekend brings your yearly dose of Nicholas Sparks adaptations as his 2007 novel The Choice comes to the screen. Benjamin Walker and Teresa Palmer headline with Maggie Grace, Tom Welling, and Tom Wilkinson costarring.
The romance seems destined to continue the trend of diminishing returns for Sparks fare. While 2012’s The Lucky One and 2013’s Safe Heaven each started out in the low 20s, 2014’s The Best of Me earned just $10 million and 2015’s The Longest Ride made $13 million out of the gate. I believe The Choice might even struggle to earn double digits and I’ll put it just under that.
The Choice opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million
This Friday, the latest romantic drama adapted from Nicholas Spark hits the screen with The Longest Ride. The film would love to get to the numbers accomplished by The Notebook, Dear John, and Safe Haven. Britt Robertson and Scott Eastwood headline with Jack Huston and Alan Alda in the supporting cast.
A good portion of the Sparks adaptations have done terrific business at the box office, but last year’s The Best of Me broke that streak with a tepid $10 million debut and eventual $35 million domestic gross. My gut tells me The Longest Ride is more likely to follow suit with that as opposed to blockbusters like 2013’s Safe Haven. It could perhaps open bigger as female counter programming to Furious 7‘s second weekend, but I’m doubtful.
I’ll predict this manages to outdo The Best of Me by a hair.
The Longest Ride opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
A trio of new pictures open this Friday to try and end the two week reign of Gone Girl at the top spot: Brad Pitt’s World War II actioner Fury, the Nicholas Sparks adapted romantic drama The Best of Me, and the animated tale The Book of Life. You can read my detailed posts on each here:
It’s hard to imagine Fury not having enough firepower to debut at #1, though The Best of Me or The Book of Life or both could surpass expectations. The real battle could be for the runner-up position as Gone Girl is likely to suffer a small decline and Best and Book should open in the same range.
As for other holdovers, I expect Alexander and Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day to experience a slimmer decline than current #2 Dracula Untold.
And with that, we’ll do a top six projections for the weekend:
1. Fury
Predicted Gross: $26.4 million
2. The Best of Me
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million
3. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
4. The Book of Life
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
5. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)
6. Dracula Untold
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (October 10-12)
David Fincher’s Gone Girl held off newcomers to remain atop the charts for the second week in a row. The water cooler hit based on Gillian Flynn’s novel took in $26.4 million, ahead of my $24.2M prediction and has amassed a terrific $77 million in ten days.
Dracula Untold had a robust beginning to the tune of $23.5 million, well beyond my meager $14.4M estimate. The pic is likely to fade rather quickly, but Universal Pictures has good reason to be pleased with its results.
The family comedy Alexander and its long title of a bad day debuted healthily with $18.3 million, right in range with my $18.7M prediction. The Steve Carell pic should hold up decently in subsequent weekends.
Horror spinoff Annabelle, as expected, dropped precipitously after its strong opening last weekend. It earned $15.8 million, barely above my $14.8M projection. It’s made $61 million so far.
Despite star Robert Downey Jr.’s relentless promotion last week, The Judge had difficulty luring viewers. It grossed just $13.1 million, below my $16.4M estimate. Mixed reviews may have kept some adult viewers away.
Finally, the steamy drama Addicted posted an impressive $7.4 million on a limited number of screens for a seventh place start. This outshined my $4.5M prediction.
Nicholas Sparks has been a profitable box office commodity for studios adapting his works and this Friday, we’ll see if that trend continues with The Best of Me. The romantic drama (it’s Sparks… did you think it was an action thriller??) comes from director Michael Hoffman and stars James Marsden and Michelle Monaghan.
The pic will no doubt cater to females and there is competition from the megahit and current two week #1 performer Gone Girl, which will be entering its third weekend. Since The Notebook a decade ago, let’s take a look at subsequent Sparks releases and what they’ve grossed in their debut frames:
Nights in Rodanthe (2008): $13.4 million
The Last Song (2010): $16 million
The Lucky One (2012): $22.5 million
Safe Haven (2013): $21.4 million
Based on those numbers, a premiere in the mid teens to low twenties is obviously the most probable scenario. I think The Best of Me won’t get past $20M, but should manage to outpace both Rodanthe and The Last Song while not reaching the heights of the last two entries.
The Best of Me opening weekend prediction: $17.8 million
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