After the entirety of the original cast had left SNL by 1980 as well as creator Lorne Michaels, the program was in a precarious position. Indeed the 1980-81 season is perhaps the worst of the 50 when associate producer Jean Doumanian took over show running duties.
There was one decision that failed season that literally saved the show and that was hiring Eddie Murphy at age 19. He joined SNL in the fourth episode that year and the rest was history. For the next four seasons, his comedic brilliance would shine brightly and turned Murphy into a phenom.
His mimicry skills were impeccable with classic bits like James Brown in a hot tub or the creation of Little Richard Simmons, a mashup of flamboyant singer Little Richard and fitness guru Richard Simmons. Other impersonations included James Brown and Stevie Wonder.
Mister Robinson was a takeoff on children’s host Fred Rogers with a more urban feel. One of the greatest pre-taped segments was “White Like Me” when Murphy came back to host in 1984 shortly after his departure. It was a preview of the kind of makeup effects he would become known for in The Nutty Professor and more years later. There’s Gumby (damnit) and Buckwheat and Velvet Jones. Buckwheat’s “assassination” is an all-timer.
Murphy would reprise many of these characters 35 years later in a triumphant Christmas show hosting gig in 2019. It was one more reminder of his vital contributions to SNL during a period where he also shot 48 Hrs., Trading Places, and Beverly Hills Cop and created the iconic stand-up special Delirious. The 40 years that followed are thanks to him and he deserves that credit. #1 will be up soon!
Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
The 2024 movie season concludes with Christmas falling on a Wednesday and four wide releases populating the marketplace that day. They are gothic horror remake Nosferatu from Robert Eggers, Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, steamy thriller Babygirl starring Nicole Kidman, and the true-life boxing tale The Fire Inside. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
The box office can get awfully unpredictable over the holidays and that might hold true this year. Many questions abound. There is a decent chance that the top four, despite the same number of newbies, remains the same. Sonic the Hedgehog 3, after ruling the charts surprisingly easily over Mufasa: The Lion King, may cling to 1st even though it should have the largest decline of holdovers. I’m projecting it falls over in the mid to high 40s with Mufasa only easing in the high 20s in their second weekends.
Other returnees, as can be the case over the Yuletide frame, may experience increases from the previous frame. If so, Wicked (which I have rising in the mid 30s) and Moana 2 (low 30s) may maintain the 3-4 positions.
I have Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown both in the low teens for Friday to Sunday and mid 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Either of them could exceed my expectations and enter the top 4.
As for Babygirl and The Fire Inside, I have them in the bottom of top 10 with Gladiator II in seventh and Homestead in 8th.
Here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $32.1 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $26 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
7. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
8. Homestead
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
9. Babygirl
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
10. The Fire Inside
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 20-22)
Paramount/Sega, as mentioned, held the top spot with plenty of room to spare as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 made off with $60.1 million. That’s well under my generous $77.6 million estimate and falls well shorty of the $72 million achieved by part 2 in 2022. It’s still a respectable number considering that it should perform decently in the weeks ahead.
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King didn’t exactly roar in second with $35.4 million compared to my $51.3 million prediction. Considering the reported $200 million price tag, this is a letdown. However, families could be biding their time to make their trek to multiplex to view it.
Wicked was third with $14.1 million, a tad ahead of my $12.7 million take. The Broadway adaptation stands at $384 million after five weeks.
After three weeks in 1st, Moana 2 was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.5 million) to bring its tally to $359 million.
Angel Studios got their post-apocalyptic pic Homestead to the five spot with $6 million and I failed to do a projection for it.
Gladiator II was sixth with $4.5 million (I was right there at $4.6 million) for five-week earnings of $154 million.
Finally, Kraven the Hunter from the Spider-Man Universe tumbled 72% to $3 million in its sophomore frame compared to my $4.8 million projection. The stalled superhero tale has made a piddly $17 million thus far.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
A boatload of Oscar precursor nominations have rolled in since I last forecasted my predictions on December 1st from the Golden Globes to Critics Choice to AFI and the National Board of Review. As is usually the case, it causes certain performers and pictures to be much more assured in their position of getting in the Academy mix. Yet it can also muddy up the waters for others. A Real Pain missing Critics Choice was a surprising snub. Sing Sing performed poorly at the Globes. Blitz and Gladiator II are all but out of the Best Picture equation. I could go on and on but let’s focus on what’s changed in my projections for the major races since the dawn of December.
While my BP lineup remains the same, I came darn close to putting A Complete Unknown in over either Sing Sing or A Real Pain. It has a strong shot after getting Globe and Critics Choice nods in the big dance. I also flirted with putting Conclave at #1, but have The Brutalist still in first in a wider open field than normal in mid-December. The most significant climber is The Substance from 10th to 7th.
For the first time this year after multiple posts beginning in the spring, Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) is not listed in my director five. Jacques Audiard jumps back in for Emilia Pérez. I feel pretty good about my top 7 making the cut in the race. Obviously that’s problematic since only five can.
Despite no recognition from the Globes, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) vaults into my Actress quintet though I was reluctant to drop Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).
While my Best Actor five is intact, Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown rises from 4th to 2nd. He has emerged as a genuine challenger for the gold (along with Ralph Fiennes in Conclave) to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Another development: after unexpectedly landing Globe and CCA noms, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is in Other Possibilities for the first time.
While my Supporting Actress field remains the same, I’m putting Yura Borisov (Anora) in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, who missed CCA and the Globes.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Substance (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)
13. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilie Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rosselini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joan Chen, Dídi
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Piano Lesson
Queer
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)
7. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Universal Language (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Armand
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilites:
6. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Transformers One (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A New Kind of Wilderness
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anora
Blitz
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sing Sing
Saturday Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (E)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Challengers (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two – deemed ineligible
Saturday Night
Blitz
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilties:
6. “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-4)
10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Twisters
Conclave
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Better Man (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Better Man, A Complete Unknown, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Mufasa: The Lion King roars into theaters December 20th serving as a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-action The Lion King. It was, of course, a remake of the 1994 Disney animated classic and it grossed a massive $1.6 billion worldwide. Barry Jenkins, the Oscar winning director of Moonlight, directs. The voiceover cast with several returning from five years ago includes Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, Anika None Rose, Blue Ivy Carter, and her mom Beyoncé Knowles-Carter.
In the summer of ’19, King turned out to be a phenomenon with a $191 million opening and eventual $543 million domestic haul. Despite the heavy cash, many critics were harsh though it did earn an A Cinemascore. I’m still not sure audiences are clamoring for the prequel/sequel.
Don’t get me wrong. Plenty of parents and their kiddos will turn up. I’m just not expecting anywhere near the figures of what we saw a half decade ago. The Christmas holiday typically means even tentpole titles will start out slower than what they might in other seasons. Mufasa also must contend with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which debuts directly against it and could be more front loaded.
I’m projecting the Lion premieres in second behind the Hedgehog with a low 50s gross and it’ll probably leg out solidly in the weeks to follow.
Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend prediction: $51.3 million
For my Sonic the Hedgehog 3 prediction, click here:
Nominations for the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards were out this morning in a bustling week of precursor activity. I went 108 for 131 in my overall predictions in the feature film races. Let’s briefly go through each competition listing the nominees, how I did, and what I missed.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 8/10
A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys get in over my picks of Challengers and A Real Pain
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
How I Did: 6/8
The “How I Did” number is misleading as I assumed there would be 6 nominated filmmakers and not 8. I correctly named six who made it, but didn’t predict Audiard and Ross.
Best Ensemble
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
I had The Brutalist and not Saturday Night
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
How I Did: 5/6
Jean-Baptiste, who was snubbed for a Golden Globe nom, is in over Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) who did nab a GG mention.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
How I Did: 5/6
A surprising selection of Grant over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. Three days after garnering a Globe slot in Actor (Musical or Comedy), is it possible that Grant makes it in with the Academy?
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 5/6
A solid showing for Nickel Boys this morning. Ellis-Taylor in over Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
How I Did: 4/6
Borisov and Norton are up instead of Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). Tucci has now missed GG and CCA. Borisov and Norton have made both.
Best Young Actor/Actress
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
How I Did: 4/6
Browne and Ziegler over Nykiya Adams (Bird) and Anora‘s Mark Eidelstein.
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
Perez and not The Room Next Door.
Best Foreign Language Film
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 5/6
Flow and not Vermiglio.
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 5/5
I thought there would be six nominees so I also selected Transformers One. CCA decided to go with a handful of animated titles. I’m counting it as 5/5. I’ll be taking no questions.
Best Comedy
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
How I Did: 5/6
I had the critics considering Anora a comedy, but they didn’t so it’s My Old Ass instead (which was my runner-up).
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/6
Nosferatu and Wicked over Challengers and Emilia Pérez.
Best Costume Design
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
Conclave and not Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.
Best Editing
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune, September 5
How I Did: 5/6
September 5 gets in and not The Substance.
Best Hair and Makeup
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Production Design
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
I went with Emilia Pérez. They went with Conclave.
Best Score
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Song
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 5/6
“Beautiful” is in; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing is out.
Best Visual Effects
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 3/6
My weakest showing as Better Man, Gladiator II, and The Substance are honored instead of Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. and Twisters.
And there you have it. Below are the total numbers of nominations for respective pictures. I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the January 12th ceremony!
11 Nominations
Conclave, Wicked
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
The Brutalist
7 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
5 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
Challengers, Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Flow, Maria, My Old Ass, Saturday Night, September 5
1 Nomination
Abigail, All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dídi, A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Janet Planet, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Memoir of a Snail, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Chelsea Handler returns to host the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards occurring January 12th and tomorrow brings the nominations. The ceremony can often be a reliable barometer for the Oscars. In the last two years, it agreed on Picture and Director with the Academy and went 5 for 8 in the acting derbies.
At CCA, there are 10 Best Film contenders and then 6 in the other races. Here’s my projections along with a runner-up selection for all competitions. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with how I did and overall thoughts!
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
Runner- Up: September 5
Best Director
Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Runner-Up: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Best Ensemble
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariane Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Runner-Up: Selena Gomez (Emila Pérez)
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Runner-Up: Yura Borisov (Anora)
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
Best Foreign Film
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio
Runner-Up: The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Transformers One, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Piece by Piece
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
Best Costume Design
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Editing
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
Best Makeup and Hair
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Production Design
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Score
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Wicked
Best Song
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
Best Visual Effects
Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Twisters, Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
Best Comedy
Anora, Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
Runner-Up: My Old Ass
Best Young Actor
Nykiya Adams (Bird), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail)
Runner-Up: Cailey Fleming (IF)
That works out to these numbers with The Brutalist leading with 11 and 4 movies tying with 10 nominations apiece:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
10 Nominations
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
8 Nominations
Anora
7 Nominations
The Substance
6 Nominations
Challengers
4 Nominations
A Real Pain
3 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Maria, Nickel Boys
Focused on the sole predominantly black female battalion to serve overseas in WWII as postal clerks, Tyler Perry is behind the camera for The Six Triple Eight. Kerry Washington leads a cast that includes Ebony Obsidian, Milauna Jackson, Kylie Jefferson, Shanice Shantay, Susan Sarandon, Dean Norris, Sam Waterston, and Oprah Winfrey. The war drama is in limited release this weekend before a Netflix bow on December 20th.
This doesn’t sound like it will turn out to be Madea Goes to the Oscars. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 57. There is praise for some of the performances and highlighting an underreported true story. Yet reviews aren’t strong enough for this to be a contender… with one notable exception.
Diane Warren contributed “The Journey” to the soundtrack and it’s performed by H.E.R. As is the stuff of Oscar lore, Warren has 15 tunes that have been nominated for Best Original Song. These include “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, “Because You Love Me” from Up Close & Personal, and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. Her 15th nod arrived last year courtesy of “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot. She’s 0 for 15 as far as victories. H.E.R., on the other hand, was victorious in Original Song at the 93rd ceremony courtesy of “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah. Don’t be surprised if “The Journey” makes the cut for Warren’s 16th recognition, but I don’t see it winning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A beloved fantasy franchise gets the anime and prequel treatment when The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim debuts December 13th. Set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson’s Oscar-winning trilogy, Kenji Kamiyama directs the animated adventure with Brian Cox, Gala Wise, Luke Pasqualino, and Miranda Otto providing voiceover work.
Obviously there’s a built-in audience for any adaptation of J.R.R. Tolkien’s creations. That makes this estimate tricky. A small portion of moviegoers may turn up not even knowing that it is anime. Some may stay away for that very reason. There’s also Kraven the Hunter opening the same weekend that could siphon off some action fans.
This certainly has the chance to exceed my number, but I’m projecting high single digits for a lackluster showing.
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim opening weekend prediction: $8 million
Seventeen out of the past 20 New York Film Critics Circle recipients for Best Film have achieved a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars including winners No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker, and The Artist. Will Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist join that list? It’s almost a certainty. The epic historical drama won the NYFCC top prize in addition to Adrien Brody’s performance for Best Actor. These are the first major precursor honors for the pic I currently have ranked #1 in my BP derby (same goes Brody). It’s highly unlikely to be the last.
Corbet, however, did not take Director. That honor went to RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys and his film also took the Cinematography prize. I currently don’t have Ross in my director lineup though I do have it scoring a BP nod. 11 out of the previous 15 behind the camera winners did end up with an Oscar nomination.
In Best Actress, it was Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Half of the previous ten NYFCC leading women received Academy recognition. That seems appropriate as Jean-Baptiste’s odds are around 50/50 in my view.
That’s not the case in Supporting Actor where Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) took that Big Apple competition. He’s widely expected to be one of the final five and perhaps even make a podium walk.
The NYFCC did manage to provide a shocker with Carol Kane taking Supporting Actress for the little-seen Between the Temples. The veteran performer is not expected to contend at the Oscars.
Finally, All We Imagine as Light (which India did not submit as their horse in International Feature Film) is the Best Foreign Language Film. No Other Land, which could be a player in the Academy’s Documentary Feature race, was NYFCC’s Best Non-Fiction Film. Both of those pics won their respective categories at the Gotham Awards yesterday as well. Latvian tale Flow is the Best Animated Feature and it should follow suit with Oscar.
Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor coverage!
Based on one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed theater productions from Stephen Schwartz, Wicked looks to bewitch audiences this Friday. Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu helms the reported $145 million production with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headlining. Costars include Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.
Representing part 1 of the epic musical with its follow-up arriving next November, Wicked is expected to be a massive hit worldwide. With its box office fortunes appearing secure, lingering Oscar buzz was confirmed with today’s review embargo lift.
The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 73. Technical noms were always a strong possibility. Costume Design (where it could win), Makeup and Hairstyling (same), Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects are all on the table. There are no original songs so that’s off the table.
A Best Picture nod certainly seems achievable and I had it listed 8th in last weekend’s update. That still seems about right. I don’t believe it’s guaranteed a slot, but its impending popularity gives the Academy a chance to honor a crowd favorite that many viewers have actually seen. Chu’s direction and the screenplay seem far less likely to make the cut.
On the performance front, Erivo will vie for Actress with Grande contending in supporting. Best Actress is super crowded and I’m skeptical Erivo gets her second nomination behind 2019’s Harriet. Grande, meanwhile, stands a better shot even though Supporting Actress has plenty of contenders as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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