Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million
White Bird at last flies into theaters after significant delays on October 4th. The period drama is a prequel to 2017’sblockbuster Wonder. Like that hit, it’s based on source material from R.J. Palacio. Marc Forster directs and the cast includes Ariella Glaser, Orlando Schwerdt, Bryce Gheisar, Gillian Anderson, and Helen Mirren.
Lionsgate originally was slated to release Bird in September 2022 and then in summer 2023 before finally landing on this date. The distributor has seemingly been conducting a yard sale of flops over the past several weeks such as Borderlands, The Crow, The Killer’s Game, Never Let Go, and Megalopolis.
I don’t see White Bird reversing the trend. Wonder was seven years ago, but a bigger problem might be that audiences aren’t aware of the prequel’s existence. Like the aforementioned features, hitting $5 million out of the gate might be a challenge.
White Bird opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million
For my Joker: Folie à Deux prediction, click here:
While Hasbro’s Transformers One fell short of expectations this past weekend, DreamWorks Animation looks to bring families out in force with The Wild Robot this Friday. We also have Francis Ford Coppola’s long in the works sci-fi epic Megalopolis premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I projected a mid 30s start for Transformers and came to regret it (more on that below). I’m estimating the same for The Wild Robot which is generating stronger reviews and comes from a studio whose animated works usually perform well.
As for Megalopolis, it might be a megaflop. Coppola’s passion project premiered at Cannes to plenty of negative reaction. This might do decent business on the coasts, but I don’t expect much interest in between. A mid single digits gross could mean fourth place.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will drop to second after three weeks on top with a percentage dip in the low to mid 40s. Despite an A Cinemascore grade, Transformers will likely suffer with a low to mid 50s decline due to the Robot competition. Speak No Evil should round out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
3. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million
4. Megalopolis
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Speak No Evil
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (September 20-22)
In an upset, moviegoers made Tim Burton’s sequel the champion three times in a row as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice took in $25.9 million. That’s right on target with my $26.7 million forecast as its total has reached $226 million.
Transformers One couldn’t catch on in the runner-up position with $24.6 million. That’s well under my $35.4 million take and it’s another underwhelming result for the franchise behind last year’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.
Speak No Evil was third at $5.7 million, a bit shy of my $6.5 million call. The thriller has grossed $21 million after two weeks in multiplexes.
Halle Berry’s survival thriller was another yawner for Lionsgate in fourth with $4.4 million, on pace with my $4.7 million prediction.
Deadpool & Wolverine rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.9 million). In nine outings, 2024’s second largest domestic earner has amassed $627 million.
Finally, I didn’t do a projection for Demi Moore’s critically hailed The Substance. It opened in sixth with a fairly respectable $3.2 million.
Hasbro’s animated Transformers One looks to dislodge Beetlejuice Beetlejuice from its #1 perch and Halle Berry’s horror pic Never Let Go hopes to bring in genre fans this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Transformers should manage to assemble a first place showing in the middle to higher 30s. Expectations aren’t as high for this compared to the live-action action pics, but decent reviews and kid business should help.
Lionsgate has had a string of flops over the past few weeks (The Killer’s Game being the latest) and I expect that to continue with Never Let Go. My mid single digits projection for it should mean a fourth place premiere.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after ruling the charts for the past two weeks, should ease close to 50% for second place. See No Evil may also see a drop in the low to mid 40s for third with Deadpool & Wolverine rounding out the top five in its ninth outing.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $35.4 million
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million
3. Speak No Evil
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. Never Let Go
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (September 13-15)
It was a lucky Friday the 13th frame for Tim Burton and company as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice held up stronger than I assumed in its sophomore frame. The long in development sequel grossed $51.3 million compared to my $40.9 million take. After ten days, its impressive haul stands at $187 million.
Psychological thriller Speak No Evil with James McAvoy debuted on the lower end of its anticipated range at $11.3 million in second. I was more generous at $14.6 million. With a B+ Cinemascore (solid for its genre), it may hold up fairly well in the weekends to come.
Deadpool & Wolverine was third with $5.2 million, a tad more than my $4.4 million call. After 8 weeks, the MCU juggernaut has earned $621 million.
I incorrectly did not have hot button documentary Am I Racist? in my top five but it performed impressively in fourth with $4.5 million.
Reagan was in the five spot with $2.9 million (I said $3.1 million) for $23 million after three weeks in play.
Finally, the aforementioned The Killer’s Game with Dave Bautista was DOA in sixth with $2.6 million. I gave it slightly more credit with a $3.7 million forecast.
Never Let Go tries to avoid a recent Lionsgate curse when it opens this Friday. That might be unavoidable for the Alexandre Aja (Crawl) directed horror flick starring Halle Berry. Percy Daggs IV, Anthony B. Jenkins, Matthew Kevin Anderson, Christin Park, and Stephanie Lavigne costar.
The survival tale seems to be flying considerably under the radar. As mentioned, Lionsgate had been experiencing an onslaught of financial underachievers over the last few weeks thanks to Borderlands, The Crow, and The Killer’s Game.
It also won’t help that genre fans have had plenty of material in 2024 and Speak No Evil will be in its sophomore frame. Mid single digits is where I’m going with this.
Never Let Go opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
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