Tag: Netflix

Next Goal Wins Box Office Prediction

On November 17th, the true life sports dramedy Next Goal Wins finally kicks it in theaters after numerous delays. Filmed about four years ago, Taika Waititi directs with Michael Fassbender (currently pulling double duty in David Fincher’s The Killer on Netflix) as a down of his luck soccer coach assigned to American Samoa. Costars include Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, Beulah Koale, Will Arnett, and Elisabeth Moss. Arnett’s parts, by the way, were reshot after the studio replaced Armie Hammer with him.

Unlike the filmmaker’s Jojo Rabbit from 2019, Goal did not generate any awards buzz after it hit the festival circuit. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a blah 51% as it arrives during the increasingly crowded November season.

It certainly seems like this will get lost in the shuffle and I’m not even confident this earns $5 million for its start.

Next Goal Wins opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Box Office Prediction

For my Trolls Band Together prediction, click here:

Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction

For my Thanksgiving prediction, click here:

Thanksgiving Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Leave the World Behind

Based on the well-regarded 2020 novel by Rumaan Alam, Leave the World Behind has premiered at the AFI Fest prior to its limited November 22nd theatrical run and December 8th Netflix bow. Sam Esmail directs the apocalyptic thriller starring Julia Roberts, Mahershala Ali, Ethan Hawke, Myha’la, Farrah Mackenzie, Charlie Evans, and Kevin Bacon.

Counting Barack and Michelle Obama among its executive producers, this looks to attract plenty of eyeballs during the holiday season. The small number of reviews so far are mostly complimentary (83% on Rotten Tomatoes) while not as strong as the source material’s notices.

Despite the awards friendly cast (Roberts won in 2000 for Erin Brockovich and Ali is a two-time recipient for 2016’s Moonlight and 2018’s Green Book), the chances for World being a contender are likely flatlined. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nimona

For this year’s Animated Feature race at the Oscars, it appears there are three spots already spoken for. That would be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (the frontrunner), Elemental, and The Boy and the Heron. We await Disney’s Wish and it’s a strong possibility it makes the dance unless it majorly underwhelms with critics and crowds.

That could leave just one slot left for the five spot and there’s hopefuls. They include the sequel Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and reboot Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. There’s the Polish historical drama The Peasants.

And we have Nimona from Nick Bruno and Troy Quane. The Netflix comedic adventure premiered on Netflix over the summer to solid reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes). Featuring the voices of Chloë Grace Moretz and Riz Ahmed, I’ve had it ranked #5 in a few of my posts (including the most recent update from last weekend). Bruno and Quane are the team behind 2019’s Spies in Disguise. It did not make the quintet in Animated Feature (it probably narrowly missed). Nimona‘s inclusion may come down to whether Netflix throws their campaign attention behind it or Nugget. Don’t be surprised if it’s this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Arriving over 23 years after its predecessor, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget hatches on Netflix this December. Critics got their first look at it this weekend during the London Film Festival. Sam Fell directs with a voice cast including Thandiwe Newton, Zachary Levi (taking over from Mel Gibson), Bella Ramsey, Romesh Ranganathan, Jane Horrocks, Imelda Staunton, and Miranda Richardson.

In 2000, the original Chicken Run was a critical and commercial success with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. It arrived one year before the Academy established their Best Animated Feature race. Had it existed, it’s a safe bet that it would’ve been nominated.

Nugget is more of a question mark. Reviews are not as effusive (it’s at 83% on RT). I would put it behind two other sequels as far as its chances go behind frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. With other hopefuls like Elemental, Wish, and Nimona (among others) in the mix, there may not be enough room in the quintet for this long in the works follow-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Killers of the Flower Moon Box Office Prediction

After a Cannes Film Festival premiere in May that instantly turned it into a major awards contender, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon shines down on theaters October 20th. It marks the legendary filmmaker’s sixth collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio and tenth with Robert De Niro. Lily Gladstone is third lead and she’s generating Oscar buzz along with her aforementioned costars. The supporting cast includes Jesse Plemons, Tantoo Cardinal, John Lithgow, and Brendan Fraser.

Based on David Grann’s 2017 novel, the reported $200 million production was picked up by Apple TV. They chose to go the theatrical route with the three and a half hour epic (Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman went straight to Netflix).

This summer, adults turned out in full force for Oppenheimer (as in close to a billion worldwide). A lot of moviegoers who made the trek to see Christopher Nolan’s potential Best Picture winner do the same with this potential BP recipient. My forecast puts in the upper region of its expected range. That would be close to $30-35 million and don’t be shocked if it gets past that.

Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million

Oscar Predictions: Society of the Snow

J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow served as the closing night feature at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month and, as expected, has been submitted by Spain as their Oscar hopeful for International Feature Film. The survival drama is expected to be streaming on Netflix by year’s end. It tells the real life tale of Uruguayan Flight 571’s crash in the Andes Mountains in 1972. Bayona is no stranger to disaster dramas with 2012’s The Impossible, which nabbed Naomi Watts a Best Actress nod. His last pic was 2018’s dino sequel Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

Based on a small sampling (9 reviews), Snow has lodged a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Spain has had a spotty record getting their selections into the final five with the Academy. In the 21st century, The Sea Inside was the 2004 winner and 2019’s Pain and Glory was nominated. That’s where their luck ends.

I currently have Snow at #7 in IFF. Its chances are decent and getting a lot of eyeballs via Netflix should only assist. If I’m betting now, however, I’ll say it makes the shortlist and not the ultimate quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Pain Hustlers

Plenty of movies solidify their awards status as they play the fall festivals while others decimate their prospects. That would be the case with Pain Hustlers, which debuted at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its October 20th limited theatrical release and October 27th Netflix bow.

From David Yates (who’s been busy over the past decade plus making Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts entries), this is being called a subpar Wolf of Wall Street knockoff for the pharmaceutical industry. Emily Blunt, Chris Evans, Catherine O’Hara, Andy Garcia, Brian d’Arcy James, and Chloe Coleman are among the cast members.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is only 19% and that’s no prescription for any Academy attention. Blunt is getting some nice notices and she’s somehow never received an Oscar nomination. It might happen in 2023, but it would be in Supporting Actress for Oppenheimer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nyad

In an unusual bit of Oscar history, Annette Bening would probably be a two-time Best Actress recipient if not for Hilary Swank. The latter took home the statue in 1999 for Boys Don’t Cry and Bening was likely runner-up for Best Picture winner American Beauty. In 2004, a late Million Dollar Baby surge gave Swank her second award with Bening’s performance in Being Julia probably in second position.

Nyad has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 20th limited theatrical release and November 3rd Netflix streaming debut. Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin, makers of the Oscar winning doc Free Solo, direct. It casts the five-time nominee as real-life swimmer Diana Nyad and critics are praising her performance. Same goes for costar Jodie Foster (in supporting), a two-time Actress victor like Swank who would also be vying for her sixth overall nod.

Both are possibilities as reviews are sturdy (100% on RT). I don’t think this wades into the Best Picture conversation. Both Actress and Supporting Actress look crowded already, but it would be foolish to discount either of these acting legends. Lucky for Bening, Ms. Swank doesn’t seem to have anything in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Killer

David Fincher’s last five films have received at least one Oscar nomination with three (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network, Mank) up for Best Picture. His latest is The Killer with a Venice premiere this weekend, limited theatrical release October 27th, and Netflix stream beginning on November 10th. The action thriller stars Michael Fassbender in the title role with a supporting cast including Arliss Howard, Charles Parnell, Kerry O’Malley, Sala Baker, Sophie Charlotte, and Tilda Swinton.

The reviews indicate this is right up Fincher’s alley as a cold tale of an assassin that is unquestionably pristinely made. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 88%. The reaction also hints that this will not be the awards player in the big categories that his last batch were. That quintet of previously nominated pics all nabbed acting nominations. Despite praise for Fassbender’s lead work, Best Actor already looks too crowded for his inclusion. It also sounds like Swinton in Supporting Actress is a non-starter.

Per usual with Fincher’s work, tech nods could come in Film Editing (that’s where Dragon Tattoo won), Cinematography (where Mank was victorious), and Score (where Social Network reigned supreme). There’s also the chance it’s the filmmaker’s first not nominated movie since 2007’s Zodiac. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Maestro

Five years ago, Bradley Cooper made his directorial debut with A Star Is Born and it received 8 Oscar nominations with its sole win coming for “Shallow” in Original Song. At the Venice Film Festival, his follow-up Maestro has bowed prior to its November 22nd limited theatrical output and December 20th Netflix premiere. It recounts the relationship between famed conductor Leonardo Bernstein (Cooper) and activist Felicia Montealegre (Carey Mulligan). Costars include Matt Bomer, Maya Hawke, Sarah Silverman, and Michael Urie.

The vast majority are singing Maestro‘s praises and it is at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, some of the positive reactions reveal drawbacks like a protracted third act. Cooper’s second behind the camera feature is expected to garner awards attention. The Venice reaction is enough for me to think Picture is likely as well as Cooper and Mulligan for their lead work. It’s also a contender in down the line competitions like Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound, Production Design, and (especially) Makeup and Hairstyling.

However, Maestro could experience some of the same omissions that A Star Is Born had. Cooper wasn’t nominated for Best Director five years ago and he could miss here. Star also didn’t get in for Adapted Screenplay. I don’t think it’s automatic that this one makes the cut for Original Screenplay (from Cooper and Josh Singer). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…