Mixing sci-fi, comedy, and government conspiracies, Juel Taylor’s directorial debut They Cloned Tyrone arrives on Netflix tomorrow. It premiered at the American Black Film Festival last month to glowing reviews and that has continued to the tune of a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. John Boyega, Teyonah Parris, Jamie Foxx, David Alan Grier, and Kiefer Sutherland star.
Despite the acclaim, its premiere seems a tad inconspicuous. It might not help that it is streaming in the same frame as the Barbie and Oppenheimer unveilings. However, a limited theatrical output last weekend does make it Academy eligible.
If Netflix were to mount a serious campaign for Original Screenplay (penned by the director and Tony Rettenmaier), perhaps Tyrone could be called up there. I’m guessing the streamer will be focused on different campaigns. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There’s a grounded Unbreakable vibe that permeates parts of Gina Prince-Bythewood’s The Old Guard. In a cinematic universe where comic book adaptations are hurled at us every couple of months, this R-rated Netflix pic manages to frequently feel fresh and captivating. There’s a less is more spirit as the screenplay (from Greg Rucka based on his own graphic novel) sets the table for inevitable sequels. That’s not to say there aren’t a fair share of shoot-em-up video game style battles. There are and they’re a cut above some others.
Andy (Charlize Theron) leads a group of fighters as we open on their assignment to rescue abducted young girls in Sudan. Her teams consists of Booker (Matthias Schoenaerts) and Joe (Marwan Kenzari) and Nicky (Luca Marinelli), who are also a couple. Their assigner is CIA contact Copley (Chiwetel Ejiofor). If Danny Glover’s Roger Murtaugh complained about being too old for his job (he put it another way), he should’ve met this squad. The quartet is immortal. Andy can’t even remember her age (we’re talking thousands of years) while the others mark their existence in centuries. They’re not famous like The Avengers and the modern world makes it trickier for them to stay inconspicuous. The group can be riddled with machine gun fire and bounce back within a few seconds. That makes them, of course, lethal weapons.
Their latest gig turns out to be a double cross involving pharmaceutical company CEO Steven Merrick (Harry Melling). We know he’s bad because his company logo is often ominously panned to before he lays out his plans. They involve capturing the immortals to study their priceless DNA. Merrick only has profit on his mind even if that means locking up his subjects with his private army guarding them. His associate Copley’s reasonings are a bit more noble.
The eternal foursome becomes a quintet with American soldier Nile (KiKi Layne). After her tour of duty ends violently, she miraculously recovers and confounds her coworkers. Andy and team come to the rescue as they must explain her new undying circumstances (she’s the first new member of the exclusive club in over 200 years). With Merrick attempting to prescribe their captures, the well-choreographed action sequences commence.
Rucka’s script weaves in occasional flashbacks of Andy’s past that reveal other associates. It turns out nothing may last forever even though our main warrior probably fought alongside Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan and partied with Keith Richards. These callbacks to history succeed in elevating anticipation for future installments.
If there’s as flaw in The Old Guard, it’s the most common of its sort. Melling’s villain isn’t exactly fleshed out. We’ve become used to the antagonists being a weak link. The preachy tone about the industry he works for can sometimes come across as clumsy and there’s the lingering knowledge that these heroes have likely fought far more interesting foes.
Yet I welcomed the approach of letting the vast backstory of the main characters have gradual reveals that are surely still formulating. Some origin stories play like the duller forward to more enticing chapters. That’s not the case here and with the talented Theron leading the charge, The Old Guard could turn out to be an enduring title in the 21st century’s preeminent genre.
We have reached 2021 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
Beyond the headlines made during the 94th Academy Awards by Will Smith and Chris Rock, the other story was a little movie called CODA. The family drama from Apple TV built momentum beginning at the Sundance Film Festival early in the year. It culminated in a 3/3 performance on Oscar night – winning Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur). We can assume it would’ve made the final cut.
As for the other nine, let’s take a deeper dive:
Belfast
Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama picked up other key nods in Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), Original Song, and Sound. It didn’t emerge victorious in any, but its sole win came in Original Screenplay in a tight contest with Licorice Pizza.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The seven nominations were tied for third most and the screenplay trophy pushes it over.
Don’t Look Up
Adam McKay’s political satire was a streaming hit for Netflix with a megawatt all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. Even with the Power of the Meryl, it received just three other mentions besides Picture in Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing (going 0 for 4).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Critics were divided and Netflix likely would’ve thrown all their campaign muscle behind The Power of the Dog if the count was only five.
Drive My Car
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour Japanese drama easily won the International Feature Film race, but it also picked up other nods in Director and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but you could argue otherwise. I left it off due to the power of the others and the fact that foreign directors often get nominated without their films making the BP cut.
Dune
Denis Villeneuve was shockingly omitted from the Best Director derby. However, the sci-fi epic got the second most nominations at 10. It won a ceremony high 6 with Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. The other nods were Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The Villeneuve snub causes some doubt, but the sheer amount of victories makes the inclusion likely.
King Richard
Will Smith infamously had the true-life sports drama’s sole win in Actor and it was also nominated in Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Original Song, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Yet this is another one that was a very close call. Once again, I just couldn’t take out some upcoming entries.
Licorice Pizza
Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age dramedy also saw its maker nominated in Director and Original Screenplay. It went 0 for 3.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. That performance is a low showing for PTA’s pic and this was fairly easy to leave out of the ultimate quintet.
Nightmare Alley
Guillermo del Toro’s noirish thriller received three additional tech nods (losing all) in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. This was (by a considerable margin) the easiest to leave off since it was blanked in all other major races like directing and screenplay and any acting mentions.
The Power of the Dog
Jane Campion’s direction is responsible for the Netflix Western’s one win. The nom count was an even better than expected 12 that included Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, even though that 1/12 count is underwhelming to be kind. That’s still the most nods and Campion winning director seals it.
West Side Story
Steven Spielberg’s musical remake had its only win for Ariana DeBose (doing her thing in Supporting Actress). Five additional noms came for Mr. Spielberg, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I’ll admit this is a tough one and you could put Drive My Car or King Richard in its place. My gut says The Power of the Spielberg gives it a minor advantage.
That means my final 2021 five is:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
2022 is next! And then, I’m switching it up. From 2008 and working backwards, I’ll do the inverse of these posts. For those years, I’ll speculate on what an expanded lineup of 10 might look like.
If you missed my entries for 2009-20, have no fear! They’re here:
We have reached 2020 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
2020 is a tricky year to consider. As we all know, it was a year dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us were working from home and theaters were essentially shuttered for the majority of the year.
Beyond the challenging, tragic, and unprecedented news events of 2020, it was just a strange year for motion pictures. Eight pictures contended for the big prize. I have the leading nominee (with 10) missing the BP cut. The next most nominated film had 6 mentions… and there’s 6 of them. The other BP contender had 5.
My point? Whittling these 8 down to 5 is not easy. Considering it took BP, Director (Chloe Zhao, the second female ever to win), and Actress (Frances McDormand), we can safely reserve a spot for Nomadland. As for the rest? Let’s get into it!
The Father
Florian Zeller’s devastasting drama about Alzheimer’s missed a nod in Director, but Anthony Hopkins landed his second Actor statue over the late Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, who was the frontrunner. Zeller did win Adapted Screenplay and this was also up for Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Film Editing, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Its two wins not only give me confidence of its inclusion in a quintet, but it could be argued this was runner-up to Nomadland.
Judas and the Black Messiah
Daniel Kaluuya won Supporting Actor for his performance as Fred Hampton in Shaka King’s historical drama. Costar Lakeith Stanfield was up in the same race andit was nominated for Original Screenplay and Cinematography. A second statue was given to H.E.R. for her original song “Fight for You”.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No but I certainly struggled with this one. The lack of directing and editing noms have it on the outside looking in.
Mank
This is where it gets complicated. David Fincher’s jaded Netflix aired look at Old Hollywood easily led the program with 10 mentions and it won Cinematography and Production Design. Fincher was also in contention for his behind the camera work. Other nods went to Gary Oldman for Actor, Amanda Seyfried in Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Surprisingly enough… I’m saying no. Despite the haul, it is the only one of the 8 nominees not up for screenplay. Furthermore the Film Editing omission feels significant. It certainly isn’t normal to project the leader not making the final five. However, rules are meant to be broken.
Minari
Lee Isaac Chung also garnered a directing spot in that quintet while Youn yuh-Jung was the Supporting Actress recipient in this family drama. Other nods: Actor (Steven Yeun), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I went back and forth. This seemed to gather strength as the season wore on and not just with yuh-Jung. I think it squeaks in.
Promising Young Woman
Emerald Fennell was up for director and won Adapted Screenplay for this revenge dramedy. Carey Mulligan made the Actress cut (and may have been second to McDormand) and it was in for Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The victory in Adapted Screenplay over four other BP hopefuls helps solidify that decision.
Sound of Metal
The impressive haul for the indie drama is Riz Ahmed in Actor, Paul Raci in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and wins in Film Editing and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I again went back and forth. While director Darius Marder was left out, it’s the Editing and Sound combo that give it an edge over the three that got left out.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7‘s six nods came (in addition to BP) in Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Song. The Aaron Sorkin political drama is the only BP vier not to take home a single trophy.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No though I struggled again. This Netflix pic undoubtedly didn’t match awards expectations after it was once seen as the on paper favorite. The 0 for 6 performance make it easier to elevate some of the others.
And there you have it. That means my 2020 vision of the Final Five is:
The Father
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
2021 will be be up soon! If you missed my entries covering 2009-19, you can find them here:
The 95th Academy Awards air tomorrow and, just in the nick of time, I have seen all ten Best Picture nominees courtesy of my Netflix viewing of All Quiet on the Western Front today.
If you missed my predictions for who and what I believe will win at the ceremony, you can access that here:
Now that I’ve seen the group of pics vying for BP, I will rank them according to personal preference. Just as in 2019 with Parasite, my #1 happens to match the movie that I’m projecting to take the biggest prize.
In 2022, I was ecstatic to attend the Toronto Film Festival for the first time. It is there that I saw future nominees The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. At the theater in my home state of Ohio, I took in Avatar: The Way of Water, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick. Home sweet home is where I viewed All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Triangle of Sadness.
Ahead of Sunday evening’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, it’s the producers turn on Saturday night. The 34th PGA Awards winner for their best in show has matched the Oscar Picture victor 70% of the time in the previous decade. The times they diverged were 2015 with PGA naming The Big Short instead of Spotlight, 2016 with La La Land over Moonlight, and 2019 when 1917 took the producer prize as opposed to Parasite. PGA also has animated and documentary competitions. I’m walking through them one by one with a winner and runner-up projection.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
There’s a 7 for 10 correlation with the PGA contenders and the BP hopefuls from the Academy. The former has Black Panther, Glass Onion, and The Whale up while the Oscars went with All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. The PGA is known for favoring blockbusters over some smaller pics from time to time. Previous examples that didn’t make the Academy’s cut include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, and Crazy Rich Asians.
This helps explain why some prognosticators are favoring Maverick to take PGA’s highest award. Another explanation is that pundits are attempting to make the race more exciting than it actually is. I do believe Everything Everywhere All at Once is still most likely to emerge. Maverick does warrant runner-up status.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix rendering of the classic tale has cleaned up with precursors and there’s no reason to believe it won’t with PGA.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Nothing Compares
Retrograde
The Territory
I wrongly picked Fire of Love to win the BAFTA instead of Navalny. Have I learned my lesson? Nope! I’m doubling down and saying a Fire PGA victory will make the Oscar quintet more competitive.
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Runner-Up: Navalny
I’ll have a recap up Saturday evening or Sunday ahead of the SAG show. If you missed my SAG predictions, they can be accessed here:
Ana de Armas is Marilyn Monroe in Andrew Dominik’s Blonde and she’s the second Best Actress hopeful in my Case Of Posts.
The Case for Ana de Armas:
Despite the film itself garnering mixed reactions (more on that below), de Armas was widely praised. This resulted in nods at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTAs.
The Case Against Ana de Armas:
I’m talking really mixed reactions for the film. Blonde received the most Razzie nominations (8) of any 2022 title. Some critics and viewers outright despised the Netflix effort as evidenced by the 42% Rotten Tomatoes score and even lower 32% audience rating. She has yet to win anywhere.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The fact that so many had their knives out for Blonde makes her a non-factor in this competition (unless we see a shocking SAG or BAFTA victory). We should see the Academy’s ladies and gentlemen prefer Cate Blanchett (Tár) or Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once).
My Case Of posts will continue with Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin!
If you missed my other write-ups for the Actress nominees, you can find them here:
Your Place or Mine features a greatest hits CD worth of tracks by The Cars while the movie never kicks into high gear. It never totally sputters either. Keeping the leads about 2800 miles apart for the vast duration might give off Sleepless in Seattle vibes, but you’ve got chemistry between Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan that surpasses that of Reese Witherspoon and Ashton Kutcher.
We meet Debbie (Witherspoon) and Peter (Kutcher) in 2003. He’s sporting a wallet chain and she’s in a WonderBra on the night they hook up after a crazy game of poker. The romance ceases after night one though they don’t lose it all. What follows is a close 20-year platonic relationship. He’s on the East Coast where his flings never exceed the six month mark. She’s on the West Coast with her teenage son (Wesley Kimmel). Her mountain climbing ex-hubby is off climbing mountains while her zany next door neighbor and part-time gardener (Steve Zahn) is always hanging around. A helicopter mom, Debbie is finally convinced to take her own flight to Brooklyn to complete a week-long accounting course. Peter hits L.A. to watch the kid.
Staying at each other’s abodes gives them fresh insights. They pride their friendship on being completely honest. It turns out this isn’t the case in ways large and small. Peter hasn’t completely given up his young 20s dream of being a novelist. Of course, the biggest diversion from the whole truth is they are madly in love and can’t admit it. I don’t think we need a SPOILER ALERT. They both try to avoid it. Debbie, with assistance from Peter’s ex-flame (Zoë Chao, quite funny), meets a dreamy publisher (Jesse Williams) for her first flirtation in some time. Meanwhile her babysitter’s best friend (the always game Tig Notaro) serves as Peter’s sounding board.
The directorial debut of Aline Brosh McKenna, she’s no stranger to writing hits in the genre like The Devil Wears Prada and 27 Dresses. 2003, shortly before those rom com entries, is about when Witherspoon and Kutcher were starting their known features in the field (Sweet Home Alabama for her, Just Married for him). It’s a tad surprising they never teamed up before.
Your Place or Mine imagines a glossy scenario where their version of happily ever after is delayed a couple of decades. The long wait includes the inability to truly judge their chemistry as the bulk of their interactions is via calls and texts. Contrary to The Cars songs that play, I guess it’s not what we needed and there’s scant magic. You might think it’s average at best.
Reese Witherspoon is the star and producer of Your Place or Mine, which is available for viewing in the comfort of your place (but not mine) on Netflix today. The rom com pairs her with Ashton Kutcher in the directorial debut from Aline Brosh McKenna. The supporting cast includes Jesse Williams, Zoë Chao, Tig Notaro, and Steve Zahn.
With an awards qualifying limited theatrical run, this isn’t an Oscar prediction posts as much as a Golden Globes one. Witherspoon has been nominated for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy on three occasions – 1999’s Election, 2001’s Legally Blonde, and 2005’s Walk the Line (where won the Globe and eventually the Oscar). Her sole nod in Actress (Drama) at the Globes is for 2014’s Wild (for which she received her second mention from the Academy).
The thought of Witherspoon garnering a fifth GG nom is feasible until you see the Rotten Tomatoes score. At a mere 35%, it’s highly doubtful this will be on the minds of any voters nearly a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sundance premiered Theater Camp, the feature-length version of a 2020 short film of the same name. The comedy comes from directors Molly Gordon (who can be seen as Jonah Hill’s sibling in this weekend’s You People on Netflix) and Nick Lieberman. They cowrote the screenplay with Ben Platt (originator of the title role of Dear Evan Hansen on Broadway) and Noah Galvin (who would later play Hansen onstage). Gordon, Platt, and Galvin are included in the cast along with Jimmy Tatro, Patti Harrison, Ayo Edebiri, Amy Sedaris, and Alan Kim.
Set at an upstate New York camp for aspiring musically inclined stage stars, critics are mostly saying Theater has limited but charming appeal. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at a decent 80%. Searchlight believes the breakout potential is enough that they bought it for $8 million and plan a theatrical distribution later this year.
Perhaps some Academy voters went to the kind of camp that’s both celebrated and lampooned here. I don’t believe the reviews are there for it to make any sort of Oscar push. Perhaps the Golden Globes will take a gander for Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy, but even that could be a reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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