Tag: Netflix

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 17th Edition

This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.

On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.

It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.

The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.

Let’s take a look at all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)

9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Boys Go to Jupiter

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Blue Moon

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

28 Years Later

Weapons

Wolf Man

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warfare

The Testament of Ann Lee

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Mickey 17

How to Train Your Dragon

And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: Goodbye June

On paper, Goodbye June sure sounds like an Oscar contender. It marks the directorial debut of seven-time nominee (and one-time winner) Kate Winslet from a screenplay written by her son Joe Anders. The family drama set during the holidays features an awards bait cast including Toni Collette, Johnny Flynn, Andrea Riseborough, Timothy Spall, Helen Mirren, and Winslet herself. It is out in limited fashion this weekend before a Christmas Eve Netflix bow.

However, as was the case with yesterday’s post on Ella McCay, the fact that it skipped festivals and that the review embargo is lifting only now is telling. Heck there wasn’t even a trailer until a month ago. The 68% Rotten Tomatoes isn’t so bad, but Metacritic is at 49. That’s not the numbers needed for Oscar attention and you can say goodbye to its prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 11th Edition

There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).

One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.

At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?

My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.

In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Lost in Starlight

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deaf President Now!

Cutting Through Rocks

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bugonia

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

31st Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

The Critics’ Choice Awards revealed their nominees prior to the January 4th airing. It is rightfully seen a decent Oscar bellwether whose Best Picture nominees recently match with around 8 or 9 of the 10 contenders from the Academy. Before I walk through each race with brief commentary (and how I did), I will note that CCA can be unpredictable in how nominees are nominated. Example – nominees in the Best Foreign Language Film, Comedy, and maybe Animated Feature competitions cannot also be up for Best Picture. That’s a newer development that I wasn’t aware of and it helps explain my poor performance in the Comedy derby.

As expected, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners led the way with 17 mentions and One Battle After Another as runner-up with 14. Both are Warner Bros properties. Of course, WB dominated the headlines for a different reason today due to Netflix’s apparent acquisition of the legendary studio.

Frankenstein and Hamnet were next with 11 nods apiece while Wicked: For Good and definitely Avatar: Fire and Ash struggled.

Overall I went 115 for 142 in my picks. Per above, 5 of those 27 misses came in Best Comedy (I’m still sore about it…). I did go 6 for 6 in 6 categories. Let’s go through the various competitions with my quick initial takes, shall we?

Picture

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 9/10

Bugonia (which was my alternate) gets in over Avatar: Fire and Ash which managed just one (obvious) nomination. Get used to hearing this in the awards coverage, but One Battle After Another (OBAA) sure seems like the pic to beat unless precursors drastically shift the narrative.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

My alternate Trier makes the sextet instead of Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). I was pretty surprised Panahi (who’s picked up precursors) didn’t get in. BP should match Director and that’s good news for Mr. Anderson though Coogler or Zhao could pose threats.

Actress

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

Seyfried who was, yes, my alternate is in with Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) not finding a home in the lineup. This a major miss for Erivo. I was leaning toward taking her out of my Oscar lineup in my next update and this could help solidify that hunch. As for the winner, Actress is generally seen as the easiest of the four acting races to call and it’s for Buckley.

Actor

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This probably comes down to Chalamet vs. DiCaprio with Moura as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 6/6

An unpredictable race where I managed to get the nominees right. It’s tough to project Grande taking this with her costar missing. Taylor might be the slight favorite though I wouldn’t discount Madigan.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 5/6

I forecasted a slight upset with Delroy Lindo (Sinners) in and not Elordi, who was (of course) my alternate. Another tough call as either Battle boy is viable but Skarsgård could emerge.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Weapons

How I Did: 5/6

Sorry, Baby in over It Was Just an Accident in another significant omission. This should be Value vs. Sinners.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

I’ll note that No Other Choice, like international counterpart Accident, had a somewhat ho-hum day. OBAA should be victorious.

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât

How I Did: 4/6

This is where I was unaware Value wouldn’t qualify since it was in the BP ten. It is out along with The Voice of Hind Rajab in favor of Belén and Left-Handed Girl. Accident might win despite the middling performance though Agent is a considerable threat.

Animated Feature

Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 4/6

Elio and In Your Dreams over Ne Zha 2 and Scarlet. CCA is unlikely to ignore the massive hit KPop. If they do, they’ll go with massive hit Zootopia 2.

Comedy

Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville

How I Did: 1/6

Yeah… per my frustration above, I didn’t know BP nominees weren’t eligible. That’s why Phoenician is my only correct pick as I had BP contenders Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, and OBAA. The other was Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and it was totally blanked. I’ll lean toward Phoenician but Naked Gun and maybe Friendship could get this.

Casting and Ensemble

Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This is a WB showdown between OBAA and Sinners.

Cinematography

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 5/6

F1 instead of Marty Supreme (which missed a couple of expected tech nods). This may also be an OBAA vs. Sinners race though Train Dreams could spoil.

Costume Design

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

Hamnet and Hedda in; Marty Supreme and OBAA out with Frankenstein and Wicked as the frontrunners.

Editing

Nominees: A House of Dynamite, F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners

How I Did: 5/6

The surprise here is Neighbor, which is seen as a likely nominee and potential Oscar winner for Documentary Feature, getting in (I had No Other Choice instead). Could the Academy notice? As for the probable winner – OBAA.

Hair and Makeup

Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Apparently I know my Hair and Makeup. Note this is the only nod for Machine (sorry Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt). Like Costume Design, Frankenstein and Wicked are win friendliest.

Production Design

Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 5/6

Another potential Frankenstein/Wicked showdown. I had Avatar and not Fantastic Four.

Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/6

F1 (which had a nice day with 7 noms) and Frankenstein over A House of Dynamite and Bugonia. Think Sinners here or maybe OBAA.

Song

“Drive” from F1; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

“Drive” and “Clothed” make the musical cut over “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless and “Highest 2 Lowest” from the same titled film. Like in Animated Feature, the voters may go with KPop.

Sound

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare

How I Did: 4/6

Sirât and Warfare heard their names called over Avatar and Wicked: For Good (another notable miss). Don’t be surprised if F1 captures this.

Stunt Design

Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Tough one but CCA might go with Cruise and company in his franchise finale.

Visual Effects

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman

How I Did: 4/6

Finally, Avatar is nominated! And it will probably win though who knows considering the underwhelming performance. Fantastic Four and Wicked miss with Mission and Sinners in.

Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)

How I Did: 4/6

I had Aidan Delbis (Bugonia) and Actress nominee Chase Infiniti (OBAA) in this and not Gorman or Ye. I suspect this is between Caton and Jupe.

Below is the nomination count and I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony. Keep an eye on the blog this weekend for final Golden Globe predictions (out Monday).

17 Nominations

Sinners

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

11 Nominations

Frankenstein, Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

F1, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

5 Nominations

Train Dreams

4 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Weapons

3 Nominations

Bugonia

2 Nominations

KPop Demon Hunters, Left-Handed Girl, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât, The Testament of Ann Lee, Warfare

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, A House of Dynamite, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Ballerina, Belén, Blue Moon, Elio, Eternity, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Friendship, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, In Your Dreams, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Naked Gun, The Perfect Neighbor, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Rental Family, The Smashing Machine, Sorry, Baby, Splitsville, Superman, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: Zootopia 2

As they frequently do over the Thanksgiving holiday, Disney should reign supreme with an animated effort. In 2025, they’ll do it via Zootopia 2 which follows up the 2016 original. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing. Returning voice work comes from Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Shakira, Idris Elba, Alan Tudyk, Bonnie Hunt, and Jenny Slate. Newcomers to the franchise include Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, and Danny Trejo.

At the 89th Academy Awards, Zootopia won Best Animated Feature against fellow studio competitor Moana and the acclaimed Kubo and the Two Strings. It opened early in the calendar (March) and maintained frontrunner status throughout the long awards season. Reviews were strong with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic.

The sequel is also generating solid critical reaction with 93% on RT and Metacritic at 73. Those numbers are sturdy enough that I’m confident Zootopia 2 has reserved a spot in the Animated Feature quintet. It also has a shot to be victorious like its predecessor. However, I’ve had it ranked in second position behind the cultural juggernaut that is Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters. Overcoming that streaming phenomenon could be a tall order. It might be achievable but leaving it in second feels right unless precursors alter the narrative. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

November 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Zootopia 2 seeks to rule the Thanksgiving box office while rom com Eternity opens and will just try and make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Zootopia 2 Box Office Prediction
Eternity Box Office Prediction

Disney’s sequel to their 2016 Oscar-winning animated feature should easily the eclipse the $75 million debut of what came nine years ago. Zootopia 2 appears on track for the second highest Turkey frame behind the Mouse House’s own Moana 2 from last year.

As for Eternity, the heaven set pic with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen may struggle out of the (pearly) gates on approximately 1500 screens. My projection leaves it outside the top five.

Speaking of the high five, I’m doing not doing an official estimate for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. The third entry in Rian Johnson’s murder mystery series with Daniel Craig, it is slated for selected theaters prior to its December 12th Netflix bow. Three years ago, predecessor Glass Onion kicked off over the same holiday frame in nearly 700 venues. Though Netflix doesn’t officially report its numbers, figures of just over $9 million (three-day) and $13 million (five-day) were unofficially given for that rollout prior to its streaming start. Because hard figures aren’t revealed (and due to uncertainty about Wake‘s actual screen count), I’m not projecting it. That said, don’t be surprised if the unofficial tally reveals a third place showing with similar grosses to Onion. Got all that?

Moving to the holdovers, Wicked: For Good flew high with 2025’s second largest opening (more on that below). The first Wicked premiered in the same weekend in 2024 and dropped a mere 28% over Thanksgiving. The likelihood is that For Good is more front loaded and it may ease in the low to mid 40s for what would essentially be the same numbers for its sophomore play.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, Predator: Badlands, and The Running Man should all move down a slot and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $82 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

6. Eternity

Predicted Gross: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (November 21-23)

Wicked: For Good may not have completely defied prognostications, but its $147 million debut is second only to A Minecraft Movie for the year. Part 2 of the witchy and wizardly saga didn’t match my $158.1 million call though it managed to outshine the $112.5 million achieved by part 1.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t dropped to second with $8.9 million, in line with my $9.4 million prediction. The magic themed threequel has made off with $36 million.

Predator: Badlands was third in week 3 with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million take. It is up to $76 million overall.

In fourth position, The Running Man stumbled a steep 65% in weekend 2 with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for just $26 million thus far.

Rental Family with Brendan Fraser, despite appreciative reviews and word-of-mouth, was fifth with a ho-hum $3.3 million. That is slightly above my $2.9 million estimate.

Finally, Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge was sixth with an unimpressive $2.4 million. I gave it more credit at $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 16th Edition

My first update in two weeks showcases stability in the major races as there’s no changes in Picture, Director, or the four acting races. However, within the categories, there is movement worth noting. Frankenstein is now up to 7th and, for the first time, I would be surprised if it’s not nominated.

The only significant movie not yet seen is Avatar: Fire and Ash. As we await screening word-of-mouth, I still have it in the BP ten at ninth. If it does not end up making the cut (unlike its two predecessors), keep an eye on The Secret Agent. I have it rising to its highest perch in 12th with lead Wagner Moura now third for Best Actor.

On the eve of its Friday premiere, Wicked: For Good slips from 6th to 8th in BP while Ariana Grande continues to top the Supporting Actress rankings. The actual review embargo lifts tomorrow and that could shift Wicked‘s placement in numerous competitions.

You can read all the movement below, including my projection that Netflix’s Train Dreams is on track for an Adapted Screenplay nod (taking out Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery).

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 14) (+2)

13. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Seeds (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Tale of Silyan (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cutting Through Rocks

The Eyes of Ghana

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hedda (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-3)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

A House of Dynamite

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Blue Moon

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Warfare (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: In Your Dreams

In Your Dreams is in limited theatrical release this weekend before its Netflix streaming premiere on November 14th. The animated comedic adventure marks the directorial debut of Alex Woo with a voice cast including Jolie Hoang-Rappaport, Elias Janssen, Craig Robinson, Simu Liu, and Cristin Milioti.

Some reviews are complimentary with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes though Metacritic is at a more earthbound 56. Perhaps once seen as the streamer’s most viable contender in Best Animated Feature, that designation has been grabbed by cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters. I doubt Dreams will make the quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Picture Race (October Edition)

As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

After the Hunt

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

The Life of Chuck

Marty Supreme

No Other Choice

The Rivals of Amziah King

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

Alpha

Ballad of a Small Player

Bugonia

Die, My Love

F1

Frankenstein

Highest 2 Lowest

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Materialists

Michael

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Testament of Ann Lee

Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.

So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.

The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.

Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.

I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.

Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.

Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.

That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.

I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.

An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.

To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.

Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.

Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).

The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?

Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.

Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.

Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.

Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!

October 31-November 2 Box Office Predictions

The box office should be scary this weekend and not in a good way as there likely won’t be any films topping $10 million… with one potential unconventional exception.

New wide releases are the 40th anniversary re-release of Back to the Future and the expansion of Bugonia. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Back to the Future Box Office Prediction
Bugonia Box Office Prediction

I have Future hitting mid single digits and that’s probably going to put the Robert Zemeckis classic toward the bottom of the top five (or six). I have it neck and neck with the second frame of Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which delivered subpar numbers.

That’s more than I’m giving the latest Yorgos Lanthimos effort starring Emma Stone. With my Bugonia estimate under $3 million, it should be outside the first half of the top 10.

Chainsaw Man: The Movie: Reze Arc exceeded expectations (more on that below) and continued a banner year for anime. However, a drop in the mid to high 60s is probably coming.

Regretting You weathered poor reviews for an opening in line with estimates and I foresee a sophomore dip in the mid 50s.

If Chainsaw and Regretting play according to my though process, that could allow Black Phone 2 to return to #1 (officially). Moviegoers might seek a fright fest this weekend and the sequel fits the bill.

So what’s with all the uncertainty about what’s actually going to be #1? KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event is returning to theaters for Halloween weekend. The animated Netflix juggernaut first hit theaters in August for two days after its streaming start, resulting in a fantastic $19.2 million on Saturday and Sunday. This time around it’s playing all three days and I’m estimating it will generate $12 million. Here’s the catch. Netflix doesn’t officially report their numbers so it’ll be #1 with an asterisk.

Here’s how I have the top six (counting KPop) shaking out:

*1. KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $12 million

2. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

6. Back to the Future

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (October 24-26)

In a surprise result, Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc was easily #1 with $18 million, eclipsing my $12.8 million estimate. It continues an impressive 2025 for Asian animated material including KPop and the record breaking Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle.

Regretting You took the runner-up spot with $13.6 million, just under my $14 million prediction. The romantic drama based on a Colleen Hoover novel was hampered by far less buzz than last year’s It Ends with Us (a fellow Hoover adaptation) in addition to poor reviews.

Black Phone 2 fell two rungs to third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.7 million call. The ten-day total is $48 million.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere was a major disappointment in fourth with $8.8 million. I had it placing first with $16.1 million but moviegoers didn’t warm up to the musical biopic of The Boss.

Tron: Ares rounded out the top five with $4.9 million (I said $5 million) for a three-week tally of $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…