Oscar Predictions: Atropia

The Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival has been bestowed to eventual Best Picture nominees and one winner six times in the 21st century. That list includes 2009’s Precious, Winter’s Bone from 2010, 2012’s Beasts of the Southern Wild and 2014’s Whiplash, 2020’s Minari, and the victorious CODA of 2021. There’s plenty that never came close to Oscar’s radar such as Like Crazy or The Miseducation of Cameron Post and Nanny.

Atropia seems destined to fall into the latter grouping. The satire from Hailey Gailes unexpectedly took Park City’s top award. Alia Shawkat (known by many from Arrested Development), Callum Turner, Chloë Sevigny, and Tim Heidecker headline. The surprise nature of the Jury designation is due to subpar reviews. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 42% with a 46 Metacritic. That reaction is unlikely to allow this into the Academy’s consciousness. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nanny

Nikyatu Jusu’s directorial debut Nanny first drew viewers earlier this year at Sundance and will be screened in Toronto next week. Anna Diop stars as a Senegalese caretaker working for an affluent NYC family. Their arrangement appears, judging from the trailer, to morph into arthouse horror territory. Costars include Michelle Monaghan, Sinqua Walls, and Morgan Spector.

After its festival run, Nanny is slated for a limited November 23rd theatrical run before its streaming rollout on December 16th via Amazon Prime. Reviews are continuing to pop up as it plays other fests throughout the country and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 90%. It won the US Dramatic Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. The last two winners of that award were the Best Picture nominated Minari in 2020 and last year’s CODA which, of course, took home the Academy’s biggest prize. I would also note that the five winners before that came nowhere near a BP nod.

Diop is receiving raves along with appreciation for Jusu’s original screenplay. Nanny would really need some high profile love from critics groups before I’d consider entering this into Academy chatter. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…