As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the quintet of Supporting Actor nominees is Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another.
Previous Acting Nominations:
2000: Supporting Actor (Traffic) – WON; 2003: Supporting Actor (21 Grams) – lost to Tim Robbins for Mystic River
The Case for Benicio del Toro:
As sensei Sergio in Paul Thomas Anderson’s multi-nominated pic, del Toro would certainly win if this competition were based on internet memes. Outside of that, his third appearance in this category has been preceded with noms everywhere else including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG Actor and several wins from regional critics groups. If Another takes BP (where it’s the frontrunner), an acting victory seems likely to come with it. del Toro is coming off an impressive 2025 with his work here and as lead in Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme.
The Case Against Benicio del Toro:
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) took Critics Choice and Stellan Skasgård (Sentimental Value) got the Globe while we await SAG Actor and BAFTA. He could vote split with his costar Sean Penn. Teyana Taylor, his cast mate contending in Supporting Actress, appears best poised for a Battle acting win.
The Verdict:
Of the four acting derbies, this might be the most unsettled. I still think Benicio needs SAG or BAFTA (that one seems more out of reach) to have a better shot at Oscar.
My Case Of posts will continue with our first directing nominee and that’s del Toro’s auteur Paul Thomas Anderson…
Based on the first trailer five months ago, I didn’t know what to make of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had it parked in 11th (just on the outside looking in) in Best Picture for weeks. A few days ago, early word-of-mouth emerged that it was something special and today’s lapsing of the review embargo accentuates the buzz. Out September 26th, Battle has established itself as a major awards player. Leonardo DiCaprio headlines a cast including Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti in her first big screen role.
A mix of different genres including action, comedy and thriller fused with political commentary, Battle stands at a noteworthy 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with 97 on Metacritic. It is highly possible this will be the best reviewed picture of 2025. When I updated my predictions four days ago, I ranked this 1st in Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Nothing I see today changes that dynamic. Instead it enhances it. This would mark Anderson’s fourth BP nominee with the others being 2007’s There Will Be Blood, 2017’s Phantom Thread and 2021’s Licorice Pizza (he was nominated for his direction with all three as well). Anderson would be up for his sixth screenwriting prize after Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Blood, Inherent Vice and Pizza. He has yet to take home gold and that may be about to change.
Nominations down the line in Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Original Score (by Jonny Greenwood) and perhaps Sound could be in the mix. Warner Bros is going to have their hands full campaigning for this and Sinners in multiple races against one another. The studio may end up racking up a host of victories between the two.
Moving to the ensemble, DiCaprio will be vying for his seventh at bat (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). His placement in lead Actor is not guaranteed. Simply put, plenty of voters may take him for granted. He wasn’t nominated for his two titles that won BP (Titanic and The Departed). Nevertheless the film’s momentum may get him in the quintet.
For months, prognosticators have wondered whether Hall, Taylor or Infiniti will be the smart play in Supporting Actress. Reaction suggests Taylor is the most likely to make the cut, but that Infiniti could do so as well.
Mr. Penn (a two-time Best Actor recipient for 2003’s Mystic River and 2008’s Milk) looks to nab his inaugural Supporting Actor mention and sixth nom overall. It would be his first since Milk seventeen years ago.
Bottom line: it could be said that Sinners, Hamnet and Sentimental Value all have win narratives for the biggest prize of all. Now we certainly have Another. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Christy Hall’s Daddio isn’t out in theaters until June 28th, but festival goers in Telluride and Toronto checked out the two-hander last fall. Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn make up the cast with the latter playing an NYC cabbie and the former as his fare. It marks the debut for the director who also scripted.
Picked up by Sony Pictures Classics, plenty of critics are hailing both performances as well as Hall’s screenplay. The RT score is 83%. I’m just not convinced this will stick with voters come nomination time. Penn, a two-time winner for Mystic River and Milk, and Johnson (yet to be in contention) could get campaigns. I wouldn’t count on them taking a ride to the 97th ceremony (though Johnson has a better shot with this over Madame Web). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Over the past three decades, Clint Eastwood has made two Best Picture winners (1992’s Unforgiven, 2004’s Million Dollar Baby) and directed three nominees (2003’s Mystic River, 2006’s Letters from Iwo Jima, 2014’s American Sniper). So it stands to reason that anytime we see a new feature from the legend, an Oscar predictions post is warranted.
His latest is Cry Macho and the Western themed drama (based on a 1975 novel) was in development before Clint had won any gold hardware. Fun fact: Burt Lancaster was once tapped to headline it. The pic hits theaters and HBO Max Friday and the embargo was lifted today.
Eastwood’s return to the genre he’s most known for is split down the middle as far as critical reaction. Macho has a 52% Rotten Tomatoes rating at press time. This never seemed like much of an awards contender in his long filmography and reviews confirm just that. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Continuing with my new series covering performances that could have warranted some Oscar attention, I move to my second post in the Supporting Actor race of 1993. The first one centered on Val Kilmer as Doc Holiday in Tombstone. As a reminder, the actual five nominees were a strong grouping with Tommy Lee Jones emerging victorious for The Fugitive. The other nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape, Ralph Fiennes for Schindler’s List, John Malkovich for In the Line of Fire, and Pete Postlethwaite for In the Name of the Father.
Another notable performance for that derby: Sean Penn in Brian De Palma’s Carlito’s Way. Almost unrecognizable as a sleazy coked up lawyer with an unforgettable hairdo, Penn managed to steal scenes from Al Pacino’s title character. Had his work been included here, it would have marked his first nod. Two years later, he achieved that with Dead Man Walking. Four more nominations (all in Best Actor) would follow with two victories in 2003’s Mystic River and 2008’s Milk as well as 1999’s Sweet and Lowdown and 2001’s I Am Sam.
Yet his rare supporting turn alongside Pacino would have been fine with me for a sixth mention – even with the solid competition nearly three decades ago.
My Should Been Contenders posts will continue with another sturdy supporting turn from 1993…
The National Board of Review bestowed their end of year honors today and the unpredictable group showed some love for Netflix… just not in the expected way. The NBR named Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods as Best Film along with Lee taking their top filmmaking prize. Bloods, which premiered on Netflix this summer, has been seen as a prospect whose Best Picture chances are questionable. In my rankings, it has risen over recent weeks all the way up to #5.
As for its chances to win, one could legitimately argue the NBR win means it probably won’t (and it probably won’t). In the 21st century, only 4 of the 20 NBR victors took Best Picture at the big show and only one in the past decade (2003’s Mystic River, 2007’s No Country for Old Men, 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2018’s Green Book).
The NBR also names 10 of their other favorite pics and they are: First Cow, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Soul, and Sound of Metal. The major surprise here is easily Netflix’s The Midnight Sky from George Clooney. It received very mixed reviews and is not anticipated to play with the Academy except for tech races. The other story here is the omission of three legit Netflix contenders at the Oscars: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. In particular, Chicago is seen as the main competitor to Nomadland for BP winner. That said, only 6 of the 11 NBR pics last year nabbed Oscar attention. Two other notable exclusions from the Board are The Father and One Night in Miami.
In the acting races, Riz Ahmed took Best Actor for Sound of Metal. He’s looked at as a likely Academy contender. Similar to the Picture discussion, only 1 NBR recipient here (Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea) achieved Oscar glory. Carey Mulligan named Best Actress for Promising Young Woman. The Oscar/NBR connection is slightly better as three of the past 10 trophy takers had good fortune with the Academy. The Sound of Metal love continued in Supporting Actor with Paul Raci winning. Like Actress, it’s a 3 out of 10 match in the 2010s. Youn Yuh-jung is NBR’s Supporting Actress choice for Minari. Only 1 of the last 10 victors for the Board won the Oscar (Regina King in 2018’s If Beale Street Could Talk). Minari also took Original Screenplay with News of the World winning Adapted. Soul, the front runner for the Oscar, was named Best Animated Feature.
Bottom line: the NBR can certainly increase exposure for hopefuls, but it’s certainly not a barometer for who wins at the Oscars. Nevertheless it’s a nice day for a Netflix feature that I currently have behind three others from the streamer that weren’t named here.
Sofia Coppola’s On the Rocks has premiered at the New York Film Festival and it marks a reunion with Oscar history in tow. The comedy reunites the filmmaker with her Lost in Translation star Bill Murray. That 2003 pic earned 4 Oscar nods including Picture, Director, and the sole acting nomination for the iconic Murray. In fact, Murray may well have come in second in lead Actor to Sean Penn in Mystic River. It won Best Original Screenplay.
Ahead of its October Apple TV streaming premiere, it’s natural that Rocks would be looked at as a potential contender. While early buzz is mostly solid (82% on Rotten Tomatoes), I don’t think the reviews are strong enough that this will make any play for Picture, Director, or Screenplay.
This leaves the legendary comic performer as I don’t see costars Rashida Jones or Marlon Wayans garnering any attention. Supporting Actor has been seen as the likely placement and that race is already looking super crowded (you’ll hear about a number of contenders from The Trial of the Chicago 7 shortly on this blog). Murray appears iffy to make the cut and I have the same feeling for Best Actor if Apple goes that route with their campaign. However – they might be smart to do the latter as the Golden Globes could certainly nominate him for lead in the Musical/Comedy category.
Bottom line: don’t look for this to be an Academy player save for possibly Murray. The Globes could be another story. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My look back at the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present arrives at Best Actor today! If you missed my posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, you can find them here:
As with those previous entries, I am picking the three least surprising winners of the last 28 years, along with the three biggest upsets. Additionally, you’ll see my personal picks for strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Jeremy Irons, ReversalofFortune
1991 – Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
1993 – Tom Hanks, Philadelphia
1994 – Tom Hanks, ForrestGump
1995 – Nicolas Cage, LeavingLasVegas
1996 – Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1997 – Jack Nicholson, AsGoodAsItGets
1998 – Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
1999 – Kevin Spacey, AmericanBeauty
2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator
2001 – Denzel Washington, TrainingDay
2002 – Adrien Brody, ThePianist
2003 – Sean Penn, MysticRiver
2004 – Jamie Foxx, Ray
2005 – Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2006 – Forest Whitaker, TheLastKingofScotland
2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis, ThereWillBeBlood
2008 – Sean Penn, Milk
2009 – Jeff Bridges, CrazyHeart
2010 – Colin Firth, TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – Jean Dujardin, TheArtist
2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2013 – Matthew McConaughey, DallasBuyersClub
2014 – Eddie Redmayne, TheTheoryofEverything
2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
2016 – Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
2017 – Gary Oldman, DarkestHour
Let’s begin with the three that I’m deeming as the non-surprise winners. Whittling this down to that number was a challenge. The double wins by Hanks and Penn and even last year’s winner Oldman could’ve easily been named here, too. Here goes…
3. Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
The legendary thespian was 0 for 6 when it came to nominations and wins entering 1992. He picked up his 7th and 8th nods that year with his supporting role in GlengarryGlenRoss and lead role as a blind former colonel in this Martin Brest directed drama. By Oscar night, it was clear he was finally going to make that trip to the podium.
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
Like Pacino, DiCaprio had been an Academy bridesmaid before… four times. His fifth nod for TheRevenant guaranteed he’d finally be a winner against weak competition (more on that below).
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
I could have named the Method actor’s victory in 2007 for ThereWillBeBlood as well, but his win five years later as the nation’s 16th President edges it out. From the moment the Steven Spielberg project was announced, Day-Lewis was the odds on favorite and it never changed.
Now – my selections for the upsets:
3. Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
While it might seem an obvious win nearly 30 years later, Nick Nolte’s work in ThePrinceofTides had nabbed him the Golden Globe. Additionally, there was some controversy about Sir Anthony’s inclusion in the lead race due to his approximate 16 minutes of screen time. This is truly evidence of a performance so towering that it couldn’t be ignored.
2. Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
The Italian director/writer/actor was an underdog against competition that included Nick Nolte (once again) for Affliction and Ian McKellen in GodsandMonsters. Mr. Benigni seemed a bit shocked himself when his name was called, as he famously bounded exuberantly to the stage.
1. Adrien Brody, ThePianist
The smart money in 2002 was with Jack Nicholson in AboutSchmidt or Daniel Day-Lewis in GangsofNewYork. Brody’s win was pretty shocking, as was the giant smooch he planted on presenter Halle Berry.
When it comes to overall fields, I’m going recent history with both. For strongest, I’ll give it to 2012. That’s the year Day-Lewis won for Lincoln. All other nominees were rock solid as well with Bradley Cooper (SilverLiningsPlaybook), Hugh Jackman (LesMiserables), Joaquin Phoenix (TheMaster), and Denzel Washington (Flight).
For weakest, I’m picking 2015. This is the aforementioned year of DiCaprio’s overdue win. The rest of the field, however, was a bit lacking. It consisted of Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (TheMartian), Michael Fassbender (SteveJobs), and Eddie Redmayne (TheDanishGirl).
And there’s your Actor look back, folks! Keep an eye out for Best Picture soon as the final post in this series…
Continuing on with my look back at the major categories from 1990 to the present at the Oscars, we arrive at Best Supporting Actor! If you missed my post regarding Supporting Actress, you can find it right here:
As I did with that blog entry, I’m picking the top 3 least surprising winners (performers who essentially sailed right through awards season) and the 3 biggest upsets in each race. I am also selecting the strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the 28 actors whose support earned them a golden statue:
1990 – Joe Pesci, GoodFellas
1991 – Jack Palance, City Slickers
1992 – Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
1993 – Tommy Lee Jones, The Fugitive
1994 – Martin Landau, Ed Wood
1995 – Kevin Spacey, The Usual Suspects
1996 – Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire
1997 – Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting
1998 – James Coburn, Affliction
1999 – Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules
2000 – Benicio del Toro, Traffic
2001 – Jim Broadbent, Iris
2002 – Chris Cooper, Adaptation
2003 – Tim Robbins, Mystic River
2004 – Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – George Clooney, Syriana
2006 – Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
2007 – Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2008 – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2009 – Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
2010 – Christian Bale, The Fighter
2011 – Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2012 – Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
2013 – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2014 – J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2015 – Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2016 – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2017 – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There are plenty to choose from as far least surprising winners, but here’s my top ones:
3. Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
Clint Eastwood’s Western picked up a slew of awards on Oscar night and Hackman’s inclusion in that race was never really in doubt. It was his second statue after winning Best Actor 21 years previously for The French Connection.
2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
It was director Christopher Nolan giving numerous awards speeches on behalf of the late Ledger, as his work playing the iconic villain swept all precursors as well. This remains not only the only win in the omnipresent superhero genre in the 21st century, but the only nomination.
1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Like Ledger, Bardem created a bad guy for the ages in the Coen Brothers Oscar-winning picture. He picked up all the precursors as well for his role.
And now the upsets!
3. James Coburn, Affliction
There was clearly no front-runner in 1998 as a different actor was honored in each preceding awards show. Ed Harris took the Golden Globe for The Truman Show, Billy Bob Thornton (A Simple Plan) was victorious at the Critics Choice Awards, Robert Duvall’s role in A Civil Action was honored at SAG, and Geoffrey Rush (Elizabeth) was the BAFTA recipient. Surely one of them would win the Oscar, but it instead went to Mr. Coburn.
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
In 2015, the general consensus was that Sylvester Stallone would punch out the competition in his signature role for Creed. That would have been quite a feat after Rocky took Best Picture in 1976 – nearly four decades prior. Yet it didn’t materialize when Rylance made the trip to the podium.
1. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Along the same lines, Eddie Murphy was the strong favorite for his rare dramatic work in Dreamgirls. With Jennifer Hudson as a sure thing for Supporting Actress (which did happen), the musical looked safe for a supporting sweep. The Academy surprisingly went another route by honoring Arkin.
And now to the fields overall and choosing a strongest and weakest. For the least impressive of the bunch, I’m going with 2011. Here were the nominees:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners (winner)
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
When it comes to best overall field, I chose 1993. This is the year that Tommy Lee Jones got the gold in The Fugitive. That’s a rare acting win for an action flick. It was deserved in my view and the other four nominees were very strong as well. They were:
Leonardo DiCaprio, What’s Eating Gilbert Grape
Ralph Fiennes, Schindler’s List
John Malkovich, In the Line of Fire
Pete Postlethwaite, In the Name of the Father
Furthermore, I could keep going with other deserving actors that year, including Val Kilmer in Tombstone and Sean Penn for Carlito’s Way.
The next trip down memory lane will be Best Actress and it will be up soon!
A bit of an awards season surprise turned up today when Warner Bros announced that Clint Eastwood’s TheMule will be out on December 14. The film casts Eastwood in the true story of a World War II vet who becomes a courier for Mexican drug cartels at age 80.
TheMule marks Eastwood’s first turn in front of the camera since 2012’s TroublewiththeCurve. It’s the first time he’s directed himself since 2008’s hit GranTorino. While it’s been a little while since he’s acted, he has been churning out directorial efforts every year. It’s no accident that every time he does, Oscar chatter follows.
Over the past quarter century plus, Eastwood has seen a number of his pictures win and be nominated. In 1992, Unforgiven won Best Picture and Director. Twelve years later, MillionDollarBaby was a surprise late addition to the awards season calendar (as this is). It also won Picture and Director. Additionally, MysticRiver, LettersfromIwoJima, and AmericanSniper all received nods in the big race.
Just last year, The15:17toParis was assumed to be another possibility for inclusion for consideration. It ended up coming out in February of this year and was a commercial and critical failure. Paris is nowhere on the radar screen for Academy chatter this year.
Will TheMule be a different story? Another MillionDollarBaby that alters the Oscar race? While we’ll have to wait for buzz and reviews (there’s not even a trailer yet), some signs point to no.
There’s already rumors that Warner Bros is looking at this as more of a commercial venture than one they will focus on for awards campaigning. The studio already has a very serious contender on its docket with AStarIsBorn. Speaking of, Eastwood’s costars here include Bradley Cooper (director and star of Born) as well as Dianne Wiest, Michael Pena, Laurence Fishburne, Taissa Farmiga, and Alison Eastwood.
Even if Warner doesn’t see this as their largest Academy player, we will see if critics and audiences feel differently. One thing is for sure – we have another movie to keep an eye on in 2018.
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