A sequel filled September continues with The Nun II looking to conjure up big money while My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 hopes to post comparable grosses to its 2016 predecessor. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
In 2018, The Nun surprisingly achieved the largest premiere in the Conjuring Universe (a record that still stands) at $53 million. While I don’t expect the follow-up to reach that level, a solid high 30s start is my call.
As for Greek Wedding, the first sequel didn’t come close to matching what the smash 2002 original accomplished. I see the numbers continuing to dwindle with the third iteration and I have it barely topping $10 million. That should put #3 in third.
Current champ The Equalizer 3 should fall to second after a robust Labor Day weekend haul (more on that below). A mid 50s decline should put it in the low to mid teens.
Barbie looks to land in the four spot while Oppenheimer and Blue Beetle could duke it out for fifth. I’ve got them both just under $4 million.
Here’s how I envision the top six:
1. The Nun II
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
2. The Equalizer 3
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
4. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Blue Beetle
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
6. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (September 1-4)
Denzel Washington is quite consistent in his sole franchise as audiences turned up for The Equalizer 3. Reportedly the final entry in the violent series, it earned the second best Labor Day weekend of all time at $42.8 million. That edges my call of $39.2 million. The three-day gross of $34.6 million is right on target with its two predecessors.
Barbie was second with $13.4 million over the long frame. I was generous (a theme for the weekend) at $16.2 million. The highest grossing movie of 2023 sits at $612 million domestically.
Blue Beetle was third with $9.4 million (I said $9.5 million!) as the DCU disappointment has made $58 million after three weeks.
Gran Turismo, despite an A Cinemascore, plummeted from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing. The racing flick stalled at $8.7 million, well under my $12.1 million take for just $30 million thus far.
Oppenheimer rounded out the top five at $7.6 million (I went with $9.1 million) for a mega $310 million tally.
Finally, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem crossed the nine digit mark. The animated reboot made $6.2 million in sixth (I said more with $8.4 million) for $107 million overall.
Way back in 2002, My Big Fat Greek Wedding became the sleeper hit of the year with a $241 million gross vs. its teeny $5 million budget. In 2016, a long gestating sequel emerged to a nearly $18 million opening weekend. Yet it faded quickly with a $59 million overall take.
The third edition of the rom com franchise is out September 8th. Nia Vardolos not only returns in the starring role, but she handles directorial duties. The ensemble cast includes John Corbett, Louis Mandylor, Elena Kampouris, Gia Carides, Joey Fatone, Lainie Kazan, and Andrea Martin.
I would anticipate this series will continue to see diminishing returns. Frankly, the performance of part 2 made it a surprise that Focus Features RSVP’d for a follow-up. This could struggle to make $10 million. I’ll put it just over that.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
Over Memorial Day weekend this year, Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass opened to an abysmal $33 million over the holiday weekend, immediately making it one of the biggest bombs of 2016. How poor was that opening? It’s the sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland, which made $116 million in its first weekend (which was a three-day frame, not a four-day one). Looking Glass will be lucky to make $80M in its entire domestic run, nearly $40M under what Wonderland earned in its premiere weekend. Ouch.
Is there an easy explanation? Did Disney take too long with the six year hiatus between franchise entries? Perhaps. Did the negative tabloid publicity surrounding star Johnny Depp hurt? Maybe.
Yet another explanation is likely part of the equation. In 2016, moviegoers have seemed to catch a case of “sequelitis” and their symptoms have been affecting box office grosses for a number of pictures already this year.
Over that same Memorial Day weekend, X-Men: Apocalypse ruled the charts with a $79 million debut. That would seem impressive, except X-Men: Days of Future Past made $110 million over the same weekend just two years earlier.
This story has repeated itself repeatedly in recent months. Ride Along 2 was expected to build on its predecessor’s opening weekend. The 2014 original cruised to a $41M opening. The sequel: $35M. When all was said and done, the first Ride made $44M more than its follow-up.
Other comedies have suffered the same fate. 2001’s Zoolander actually only made $45 million in its initial run, but became a major cult hit in subsequent years. It’s long gestating sequel would surely earn more. It didn’t. Just $28M.
2002’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding became the unexpected smash of that year with $241M stateside. Part 2? $59 million (to be fair, this was on the higher end of many expectations, but still just 25% of what the first Wedding did).
2014’s Neighbors? $150 million. Last month’s Neighbors: Sorority Rising? It should top out at around $60M.
Barbershop: The Next Cut will make $55 million, under the $75M and $65M of its predecessors (though still not bad).
The action crowd has showed their ambivalence. London Has Fallen earned a just OK $62 million compared to Olympus Has Fallen‘s $98M.
2014’s Divergent made $150 million. 2015’s Insurgent: $130 million. This year’s Allegiant: a troubling $66 million.
Then there’s The Huntsman Winter’s War, which may not even reach $50 million. It’s the sequel to Snow White and the Huntsman, which made $155 million.
Just this weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows took in $35 million in its debut, which is a shell of the $65 million that the first made two summers ago.
Faith based audiences propelled God’s Not Dead to a heavenly $60 million gross in 2014. Part 2? $20 million.
Kung Fu Panda 3 performed decently with $143 million, but couldn’t match part 1’s $215M or part 2’s $165M.
Seeing a trend here, folks?
There have been rare exceptions in 2016 so far. 10 Cloverfield Lane managed $72 million. Even though that’s below the $80M of Cloverfield, it’s still a solid gross and a profitable venture for its studio.
And Captain America: Civil War was widely expected to outdo the respective $176M and $259M earnings of the first two entries. This was due to it basically being The Avengers 3. It did and will top $400M domestically.
Coming this weekend: two more sequels will try to avoid the 2016 trend and both actually have a decent chance of succeeding. The Conjuring 2 is receiving positive reviews and its studio is hoping the goodwill left over from the 2013 original will propel it to similar grosses (I’m predicting it’ll make $42 million for its start, slightly above the first).
Now You See Me 2 is hoping to match the $29 million made by the 2013 original for its beginning. I’m predicting $24M.
If both of these titles come in below expectations, that may truly show that crowds are just plain sick and tired of seeing roman numerals and numbers behind titles. Looking over the remainder of the 2016 calendar, there’s a heap of sequels that could also struggle to match what came before them. They include:
The Purge: Election Year. Bridget Jones’s Baby. Underworld: Blood Wars. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back. Ouija 2. Bad Santa 2.
Even this month’s Independence Day: Resurgence is an iffy proposition to capitalize on the nostalgia factor from the 1996 original. It appears unlikely to match the $306M earned 20 years ago by the first one.
Next month’s Star Trek Beyond could have trouble matching the $228M made by part 2 in 2013.
Inferno, the third Tom Hanks thriller based on Dan Brown’s novels, is a question mark to match the $133M that Angels & Demons made in 2011 and certainly won’t approach The Da Vinci Code‘s $217M a decade ago.
When it comes to 2016 sequels, it might not all be bad news. Finding Dory (out June 17) shouldn’t have much trouble topping the $70M that Nemo made in 2003 (though whether it reaches its eventual gross of $380M is a mystery).
And July’s Jason Bourne should benefit from having Matt Damon return to the franchise after nine years away. It should manage to outpace the $113M made by Jeremy Renner’s The Bourne Legacy in 2012. However, could it approach the $227M earned by Damon’s last one, 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum? Probably not.
Perhaps these disappointing results for so many sequels will cause studios to give us more original programming, but don’t hold your breath. Next year is already packed with follow-ups and some of them already look like they could be in trouble.
For instance, it’s probably safe to assume Disney is sweating over the fifth Pirates of the Caribbean flick, Dead Men Tell No Tales. Same goes for Lionsgate with their final Divergent pic, Ascendant.
Some of the 2017 sequels that may not have much to worry about: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Fast 8. And, of course, Star Wars: Episode VIII.
Yet given the recent trends, who knows? No one thought Alice or Huntsman or Allegiantwould do that poorly and it’s contributed to a bad… and maybe badly needed downturn for sequels in 2016.
Disney should dominate the upcoming weekend as its live-action remake of The Jungle Book swings into theaters. It’s not the only new game in town though as Barbershop: The Next Cut and Kevin Costner/Ryan Reynolds action thriller Criminal also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I have The Jungle Book outpacing the Mouse Factory’s terrific debuts for Maleficent and Cinderella. Word of mouth and reviews are both solid and my prediction puts it just under what Zootopia earned out of the gate in March.
My prognosis is also bright for Barbershop, the third entry in a franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade. As for Criminal, I have it coming in slightly under what Costner’s 3 Days to Kill accomplished two years ago. It’s worth saying that estimate for it is a bit above others that have it coming in with less than $10M.
Current champ The Boss may fall in the low to mid 40s while Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice should continue its streak of 50% plus dips in its fourth weekend. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $74.6 million
2. Barbershop: The Next Cut
Predicted Gross: $23.1 million
3. The Boss
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. BatmanvSuperman: DawnofJustice
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. Criminal
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (April 8-10)
I predicted a tight race for the top spot between Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice in weekend #3. It was even closer than I thought it would be as The Boss opened in first with $23.4 million. My prediction? $23.5M! Talk about being a boss, eh? Hey, this doesn’t happen too often, so I’ll enjoy it while I can.
That means BvS slippedto second place with $23.3 million, a tad below my $24.5M prognosis. Warner Bros superhero mashup stands at $296M after three weeks.
Disney’s Zootopia was third with $14.3 million – in line with my $14.9M estimate for a total of $296M as well.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 was fourth in weekend #3 with $6.4 million, a bit under my $7.3M prediction for a $4.6M total.
Finally – landing with a major thud in fifth place was the debut of first person action flick Hardcore Henry with just $5.1 million compared to my $7.8M projection. And I was on the lower end of estimates!
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Melissa McCarthy’s latest comedy The Boss will look to demote Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice to the runner-up spot when it opens this weekend. Additionally, the video game like action pic Hardcore Henry debuts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the newbies here:
I have The Boss opening a bit under what some recent McCarthy pictures have accomplished over the last three years. Still, considering the hefty sophomore decline that BvS experienced this past weekend (more on that below), it could create a photo finish for the top spot. My estimates have the Caped Crusader and Man of Steel slightly ahead for a narrow three-peat, as I see it dipping just over 50% in weekend 3.
As for the rest of the top five, Zootopia should easily manage a third place showing, as long as Hardcore Henry doesn’t rather significantly exceed expectations. I actually have Henry in a tight battle with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 for the four spot and have it a bit ahead.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. The Boss
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
3. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 23%)
4. Hardcore Henry
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (April 1-3)
All eyes were on the second weekend of Batman v Justice: Dawn of Justice, which had a terrific opening but was subjected to so-so audience word of mouth and many harsh reviews. The drop was even more significant than most prognosticated as it fell a steep 69% to $51.3 million (below my $59.1M prediction). The Warner Bros. tent pole has taken in $260 million in 10 days and while those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, the studio has to be at least a little concerned with a fall that massive.
Zootopia easily held the #2 spot with $19.3 million in its fifth weekend, zooming past my $14.9M estimate. The Disney animated smash has earned $275M so far.
In third was My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $11.2 million in its second weekend (I went a little under with $9.4M) for a $36M total. While it won’t even reach a third of its predecessor’s $241M domestic haul from 14 years ago, it’s still doing respectable business.
Faith based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match the opening of its predecessor two years ago. It made $7.6 million (I predicted $9.6M), which is under the $9.2M achieved by the original (which only debuted on half the number of screens).
Another Christian themed feature, Miracles from Heaven, rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.7M prognosis for a three-week gross of $46M.
Finally, the weekend’s other debut – the Mike Epps Purge spoof Meet the Blacks – exceeded most expectations in 8th place with $4 million, just ahead of my $3.7M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
After a record-breaking Easter weekend for two iconic superheroes, the first weekend of April brings a slowdown as only two non major studio pics debut. They are faith-based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 and Mike Epps’ Purge parody Meet the Blacks. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Let’s get the newbies out of the way first. I look for God’s Not Dead 2 to open within the same range as its predecessor two years ago. That should leave it in a close battle with the second weekend of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which I have falling by almost half.
As for Meet the Blacks, it’s only opening on about 1000 screens and I believe it will be lucky to reach $5 million. My $3.7 million estimate for it leaves it outside the top five.
Zootopia should continue its smallish declines and retain the #2 position. Miracles from Heaven should round out the top five, as long as Blacks doesn’t exceed my estimate.
That leaves the biggest question of the week: how much will Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice drop in its sophomore weekend? Down below, you can read all about its record-setting debut. Critics have not been kind and its B Cinemascore grade indicates that even audiences aren’t exactly loving it. Here’s how some other tent poles dipped in their second weekends (all of these titles made between $147-$191M out of the gate):
Avengers: Age of Ultron – 59%
Iron Man 3 – 58%
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 – 72%
The Dark Knight Rises – 61%
Spider-Man 3 – 61%
Furious 7 – 59%
Then there’s 2013’s Man of Steel, which serves as Justice‘s predecessor. It didn’t have the greatest buzz either and dropped 64% after a $116 million debut.
So where does that leave us? I actually believe BvS is going to fall right around with where Man of Steel did (63-65 percent).
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $59.1 million (representing a drop of 64%)
2. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)
3. God’s Not Dead 2
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. Miracles from Heaven
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (March 25-27)
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice accomplished having the seventh largest opening of all time and kick starting Warner Bros. Justice League features and intended spin-offs to the tune of a $166 million debut. My prognosis? $166.4M! Pretty happy with this one. While critics were mostly not kind (a 29% Rotten Tomatoes score), audience anticipation was clearly peaked. It just missed being its studio’s biggest opener (the final Harry Potter did $169M), but it did set the record for the month of March and highest Easter performer. The big question, as mentioned above, is how far it falls in weekend #2 and I’m predicting it’ll be rather precipitous.
Zootopia took the runner-up spot with $24 million (in line with my $23.4M estimate) for a four-week tally of $241 million.
Opening in third and with higher than anticipated numbers was long gestating comedy sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $17.8 million, above my $13.1M projection. This is a positive result considering reviews were poor and it had been 14 years since the mega hit original. This was never expected to approach the amazing $241M the first Wedding pocketed and it certainly won’t, but overall this is a fine result.
In a close battle for fourth among features in their second weekends, Miracles from Heaven edged out The Divergent Series: Allegiant. The faith-based Heaven capitalized on the Easter weekend with $9.6 million (a bit below my $10.9M estimate) for a total of $34M. Allegiant continued its plummet with $9.4 million (under my $12.7M projection) for an overall gross of $46M. It may top out at just around $65M – its two predecessors made $150M and $130M, respectively. Ouch.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Two iconic superheroes look to set an all-time March opening weekend record as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuts Friday, along with rom com sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As outlined in the individual prediction on Dawn of Justice, it stands a real shot at becoming March’s biggest opener if it manages to get past the $152 million accomplished by The Hunger Games four years ago. I’m predicting that it will.
As for Greek Wedding 2, it’s the sequel to the highest earning romantic comedy in box office history. However, I believe the 14 year gap with this sequel could mean an opening in the low teens.
When it comes to holdovers, Zootopia should drop to second after 3 weeks on top while The Divergent Series: Allegiant looks to suffer a much heftier drop in its sophomore frame than Miracles from Heaven, which should capitalize on the Easter weekend. In fact, I see a genuine photo finish for the three spot between Wedding, Miracles, and Allegiant.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $166.4 million
2. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
4. TheDivergentSeries: Allegiant
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. Miracles from Heaven
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
Box Office Results (March 18-20)
Disney’s Zootopia made it three weeks in a row on top with $37.1 million, a bit higher than my $32M forecast. The smash hit animated pic has earned $200M thus far and reaching above $300M now looks to be a foregone conclusion.
The results were not so hot for The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which posted the lowest numbers by far of the franchise to date. While 2014’s Divergent premiered to $54 million and Insurgent made $52 million, Allegiant managed just $29 million compared to my $43.7M prediction. This doesn’t bode well for part two of Allegiant, out next summer.
The faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debuted in third with a sturdy $14.8 million (just under my $15.8M projection) and a five day total of $18.3 million since its Wednesday opening (I said $20.8M). As mentioned, look for this continue to perform solidly this coming Easter frame.
10 Clovefield Lane was fourth in its second weekend with $12.5 million (I said $10.1M) and its two week total is $45M. Deadpool rounded out the top five with $8 million (I was close with $7.2M) for a cume of $340M.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Next weekend, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will deal with something its predecessor never had to: expectations. The 2002 original (with a puny $5 million budget) came out of nowhere to become the highest grossing romantic comedy of all time, grossing $241 million domestically and earning an Oscar nomination for Best Original Screenplay.
Original stars Nia Vardalos and John Corbett are back, along with returnees Lainie Kazan, Michael Constantine, Andrea Martin, and Joey Fatone and newbies John Stamos and Rita Wilson (who co-produces like last time alongside her hubby Tom Hanks).
While the first Wedding was a rousing success story that defied any prognostications, it doesn’t help that it occurred fourteen years ago. That’s a long time between sequels and it hinders the possibility of younger audiences turning out that might not even be aware of the original’s existence. This is obviously aiming for female counter programming against Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, which should draw a huge male audience.
Comedy sequels (especially long gestating ones) are a risky proposition, as Ben Stiller just learned with Zoolander No. 2. If this manages to reach $20 million or beyond in its opening weekend, that should be considered a win. Obviously, this stands zero shot at even reaching a third of its sleeper hit predecessor. I’m actually skeptical this reaches $15M and I’ll predict it won’t.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
For my Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice prediction, click here: