Tag: Mustafa Shakir

Song Sung Blue Box Office Prediction

In my previous box office prediction for Marty Supreme (opening wide on Christmas), I wrote that it is likely to play better on the coasts than everywhere in the middle. The opposite could be true for Song Sung Blue which also opens on the holiday. The musical drama from Craig Brewer stars Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson in the true life tale of Neil Diamond tribute act Lightning & Thunder. Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi are among the supporting players.

Reviews are mixed with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That said, plenty of the write-ups indicate this could be a crowdpleaser. Blue seeks to bring in an older audience during the Yuletide season. That’s likely to happen, but it may play over several weeks and not immediately while word-of-mouth builds.

I’ll project it manages just shy of $10 million over the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend with low teens when counting Christmas.

Song Sung Blue opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Anaconda prediction, click here:

Anaconda Box Office Prediction

For my Marty Supreme prediction, click here:

Marty Supreme Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Song Sung Blue

Focus Features may focus part of their awards campaigning on Song Sung Blue as it readies a Christmas Day release. The musical drama comes from Hustle & Flow and Dolemite Is My Name director Craig Brewer and tells the true story of a down-on-their-luck couple who form a Neil Diamond tribute band. Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson play the crooners with a supporting cast including Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi.

Blue played at the AFI Fest earlier this week and word-of-mouth indicates this could be a crowdpleaser with holiday box office potential. There aren’t a large volume of reviews out yet with 80% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps a more telling 57 on Metacritic. Best Picture is likely not in the cards.

The best and probably only chance at a nomination is Kate Hudson for lead Actress. Even some of the negative ink is singing her praises. If she makes the cut, it would come 25 years after her first and only nod in supporting for Almost Famous.

I believe it’s pretty safe to assume Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) have secured placement in the quintet. That leaves two slots for a handful or so of contenders and Hudson could have an enticing narrative for voters in a showy role. My feeling right now is she just misses, but my thoughts could shift based on precursors. Frontrunner Buckley, by the way, is contending in another Focus distributed project and they could train their sights on securing her the victory.

The film seems poised to be a factor at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy categories including Picture and Jackman, and Hudson in their lead derbies. Oscar could be a tougher sell and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Love Hurts Box Office Prediction

Ke Huy Quan, Oscar winner nearly two years ago for Everything Everywhere All at Once, headlines Love Hurts on February 7th. From director Jonathan Eusebio, the action comedy costars a fellow Oscar recipient in West Side Story‘s Ariana DeBose and a Super Bowl champion via Marshawn Lynch. The supporting cast also features Daniel Wu, Mustafa Shakir, Lio Tipton, and Quan’s fellow Goonie for life Sean Astin.

It is not, to my knowledge, an exploration of the history of “Love Hurts”, a song made famous by the Everly Brothers and covered by the likes of Roy Orbison, Nazareth, and Cher. That would probably be an interesting movie (just saying).

Speaking of the Super Bowl, that game is being played on Sunday the 9th and could certainly eat into Love’s potential. I’ll estimates this falls under $10 million.

Love Hurts opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

For my Heart Eyes prediction, click here:

Heart Eyes Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Emancipation

Will Smith rather notoriously won his first Best Actor Oscar last year for King Richard. His victory was not a surprise. Smith’s onstage slap of Chris Rock approximately 30 minutes before he received the gold statue was.

The superstar actor’s career has taken a hit since with some canceled or delayed projects. It has not altered the release of Emancipation. The historical action drama casts Smith as slave Whipped Peter, whose Civil War era photograph has become an iconic image. Antoine Fuqua, best known for shoot-em-ups like Olympus Has Fallen and The Equalizer pics, directs. The supporting cast includes Ben Foster, Charmaine Bingwa, Steven Ogg, Mustafa Shakir, and Timothy Hutton.

Emancipation is out in limited fashion tomorrow prior to a December 9th streaming rollout on Apple TV (they paid a whopping $130 million for the rights). The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mixed 63%.

There is praise for the performances, including Smith. An early consensus is that the action works better than some of the dramatic elements. Bottom line: this doesn’t sound line much of an awards contender whether there had been The Slap or no slap. One exception could be Robert Richardson’s cinematography. He’s a three-time winner for JFK, The Aviator, and Hugo. Richardson won’t get a fourth podium trip, but making the cut isn’t out of the question. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Emancipation Enters the Oscar Race

In an alternative universe, Emancipation might be in my top 10 predicted Best Picture nominees. I could potentially be discussing Will Smith’s chances of being the first back to back acting winner since Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994.

I didn’t think this alternative universe could be a potential reality in the 2022 awards season. In 2021, Apple TV beat Netflix and others to the punch as CODA was the inaugural streaming Best Picture winner. For a while, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon appeared to be Apple’s best shot at making it two years in a row. That’s until it got pushed to 2023. In recent weeks, there was speculation that Ridley Scott’s Napoleon starring Joaquin Phoenix could make a jump to 2022. It wasn’t to be.

This has left Apple without a legit across the board Oscar player… until maybe today. Why? The streamer announced that Antoine Fuqua’s historical drama Emancipation will hit theaters for an awards qualifying run on December 2nd and then be available for home viewing on December 9th. The trailer was unveiled this morning.

And in case you’re still wondering why I’m skeptical… two words: The Slap. Yes, the slap heard around the globe when Chris Rock presented Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards and cracked a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith. And, of course, slap provider Will Smith giving his acceptance speech a few minutes later when he was victorious in Best Actor for King Richard.

Since then, many of Smith’s planned projects have entered turnaround status. Emancipation, in which he plays a slave who joins the Union Army, was already filmed. And Apple made the surprising decision in early October to get it out two months later. This surely means Smith will be subject to interviews where he’ll address The Slap sooner than later.

So… the obvious question: can Smith get nominated? Can the film itself do so in other categories? Even though the star resigned from the Academy in the aftermath of the incident, he can still be nominated (and he can attend if invited by other members). So while the short answer is yes… the real answer is more complicated.

My gut is that Smith’s work in Emancipation would have to be undeniably awards worthy to make the final five. Even that could be a stretch. Time heals controversies and not much time has passed. As for the film itself, it could surely garner nods from Best Picture on down (I’m curious if Ben Foster gets any chatter for Supporting Actor). Yet it starts off at a unique disadvantage.

We won’t know until reviews start surfacing and that could be a few weeks. I can only assume Apple will give this a major push for consideration. It’s a campaign that is an uphill battle for reasons unfathomable just a few months ago.