At last year’s Academy Awards, Mstyslav Chernov’s 20 Days in Mariupol received the Documentary Feature prize. Ukrainian filmmaker will look to achieve the same at next year’s ceremony with 2000 Meters to Andriivka.
Focused on the Russia/Ukraine war like Mariupol, Andriivka has premiered at the Sundance Film Festival (also like Chernov’s predecessor). Before we delve into this project, let’s talk Sundance for a moment. The Park City (for now) event kicked off today so you can expect several Oscar Prediction posts covering its screenings.
While Sundance can give us BP nominees like CODA, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari to name some recents, that didn’t happen today though A Real Pain probably came close. Where the fest does provide lots of contenders is with their docs. Four of today’s Documentary Feature nominees for the 97th Academy Awards screened at Sundance: Black Box Diaries, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, and Sugarcane.
With that context is out of the way, back to Andriivka. Early reviews and WOM indicates that this could be another contender for Chernov. There is the matter of whether voters might feel they just honored the director. Let’s see how its distribution plays out too, but I wouldn’t discount this being in the mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
How reliable is the Director Guild top prize when it comes to correlating with the Oscar winner? In the previous 75 ceremonies, the DGA victor has matched the Academy’s 67 times. The most recent example of a diversion is 2o19 when Sam Mendes (1917) took DGA while Bong Joon-ho was your Oscar recipient.
Despite that fairly fresh example, the thinking going into last night’s show was that Christopher Nolan could effectively sow up his Oscar if he got the DGA. He did. The fifth time was the charm for the Oppenheimer maker as he had previously been nominated for Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception, and Dunkirk without a trophy to show for it. The Academy has been less generous as he’s in contention for only the second time (his other nom there was with Dunkirk). With victories now at DGA, Critics Choice, and the Globes (with BAFTA seemingly next) – Nolan appears well on his way to Oscar glory.
I went 3 for 3 on my picks covering feature films. Celine Song (Past Lives) made the podium trip for First-Time Feature Film. There was slightly more intrigue in that contest as Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) provide some competition. While Fiction had a better showing in terms of mentions at the Oscars (5 noms to 2 for Past Lives), Song seemed more probable for this race and that went according to script.
20 Days in Mariupol appears to be the frontrunner for Documentary Feature at the big show. Its maker Mstyslav Chernov is the winner at DGA for Documentaries. It’s worth noting that, unlike Feature Film, there isn’t a strong correlation between DGA/Oscar recipients for Documentary Feature. The last match (ironically) is 2019 with Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert for American Factory. This stands an excellent shot at being the next one.
We are now less than a month away from the Oscars. Keep checking out the blog for all the coverage!
The 76th DGA Awards take place this Saturday and it’s a key indication to which filmmaker will emerge with the Oscar for direction. How much so? 9 out of the previous 10 DGA recipients have taken the Academy’s gold. The only deviation in the last ten years is Sam Mendes (1917) winning DGA while Bong Joon-Ho was victorious on Oscar night.
There is usually a 4 out of 5 match between DGA and Oscar nominees in the big race. 2023 diverted from that. There are just 3 DGA contenders vying for the Academy prize: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) are up for DGA while Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) look for Academy love.
Let’s walk through that contest as well as the ones for Documentaries and First-Time Feature Film with predictions for the winner and a runner-up selection.
Feature Film
Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Even if Oppenheimer doesn’t win BP at the Oscars (and that seems unlikely right now), Nolan appears to be in the driver’s seat for the Academy statue. If he doesn’t take DGA, it would frankly be a shocker. Don’t count on it.
Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
First-Time Feature Film
Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Manuela Martelli (Chile ’76), Noora Niasari (Shayda), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Celine Song (Past Lives)
This is clearly a showdown between the makers of the two BP nominees in Jefferson and Song. Fiction actually had a stronger showing than Lives from the Academy – 5 nominations to 2. Yet I think Song gets this by a nose.
Predicted Winner: Celine Song, Past Lives
Runner-Up: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Documentaries
Moses Bwayo and Christopher Sharp, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol, Madeleine Gavin, Beyond Utopia, Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, D. Smith, Kokomo City
Even though it wasn’t nominated for Doc Feature at the Academy Awards, Guggenheim’s work in Still could score the hardware (the editing alone could earn it the win). However, I’ll go with Chernov and his likely Oscar frontrunner.
Predicted Winner: Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
As if today’s SAG nominations weren’t enough to ponder, the Directors Guild of America announced its five nominees in their three races this afternoon.
I went 11 for 15 in my picks. As I did with SAG in my previous post, let’s break it down with some initial thoughts.
Feature Film
Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
How I Did: 4/5
No surprises as Payne was my alternate pick over Bradley Cooper (Maestro). The DGA and the Academy usually match on a 4 for 5 basis and Payne is indeed the most vulnerable to nab Oscar attention. Nolan is absolutely the favorite for the victory.
First-Time Feature Film
Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Manuela Martelli (Chile ’76), Noora Niasari (Shayda), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Celine Song (Past Lives)
How I Did: 3/5
Jefferson, Rockwell, and Song all seemed safe and that’s how it turned out. Martelli and Niasari are in over my calls of Raine Allen Miller (Rye Lane) and Juel Taylor (They Cloned Tyrone). There’s a major frontrunner in this competition as well and it’s Song.
Documentaries
Nominees: Moses Bwayo & Christopher Sharp (Bobi Wine: The People’s President), Mstyslav Chernov (20 Days in Mariupol), Madeleine Gavin (Beyond Utopia), Davis Guggenheim (Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie), D. Smith (Kokomo City)
How I Did: 4/5
The Bobi Wine team makes the quintet over Kaouther Ben Hania for Four Daughters. This race is a little trickier to make a quick pick and I’ll sit on it until I make that prediction shortly before the February 10th event.
The SAG Awards aren’t the only nominations out this Wednesday. We have the Director of Guild of America (DGA) nods coming our way. They are usually an 80% indicator of who the Academy will name for its behind the camera prize.
In the past decade, the DGA quintet has matched the Academy’s on a 4 for 5 level in nine out of the last ten ceremonies. The only outlier is 2018 when it was 3 for 5. Note there is no 5 for 5 correlation.
So where does that leave this year’s DGA mix? For the last several weeks, I have had the following five filmmakers pegged for Oscar inclusion: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). It’s fair to say this is the consensus group among awards prognosticators.
Let’s assume there’s a 4 for 5 match. I believe Nolan, Scorsese, and Gerwig are safe bets. If anyone from that trio missed DGA, it would be considered a surprising omission.
Then I’d say Lanthimos is a near lock. My slight hesitation comes from him being left out in 2018 for The Favourite. Yet I’ll say he’s in.
That means I’m leaving Glazer on the cutting room floor and that makes some sense. The DGA has a history of omitting makers of foreign titles that the Academy recognizes. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car).
Don’t get me wrong. Glazer could get in as Zone is being hailed specifically for its directorial choices. I cannot, however, bring myself to match the DGA picks with my current Academy selections.
For the fifth slot, I’m going with Bradley Cooper for Maestro. That’s another title I believe will be appreciated for its directorial work perhaps more than other contenders like Alexander Payne (The Holdovers).
Celine Song (Past Lives) is certainly a threat. However, she’s the frontrunner for the DGA’s Outstanding Achievement in First-Time Feature Film race. She could be a double nominee, but I doubt it.
Here are my picks for all three feature DGA contests with an alternate selection as well.
Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
First-Time Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Raine Allen Miller, Rye Lane
A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One
Celine Song, Past Lives
Juel Taylor, They Cloned Tyrone
Alternate: Danny and Michael Philippou, Talk to Me
20 Days in Mariupol is a potential double threat at the 96th Academy Awards in the International Feature Film and Documentary Feature derbies. Ukrainian war correspondent Mstyslav Chernov details the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion. It premiered at Sundance and won the Audience prize for World Cinema Documentary Competition.
Reviews were uniformly strong with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Ukraine submitted Mariupol as their pick for International Feature Film. I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility that it gets in. I suspect it has a better shot in Documentary Feature where I had it ranked behind only Beyond Utopia in my update from a week ago. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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