Tag: movies

97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 6th Edition

At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).

A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.

We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)

12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)

8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Drew Starkey, Queer

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

The Substance

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dahomey

Caught by the Tides

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Separated

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)

5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 4) (E)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

Blitz

6 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based on its reported screen count of 2500 and rising buzz, I am upping my prediction from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.

A handful of new releases are out in cinemas October 11th and there’s a possibility that micro-budgeted slasher Terrifier 3 tops them all. From writer/director Damien Leone, Art the Clown’s latest hardcore horror flick looks to build upon the success of its 2022 predecessor. David Howard Thornton, Lauren LaVera, Elliot Fullam, Samantha Scaffidi, Chris Jericho, Daniel Roebuck, Tom Savini, and Jason Patric are among the cast members.

Shot for a reported $2 million, it sports an 86% RT rating with 68 on Metacritic. 2016’s Terrifier was a DVD premiere that managed to gain a cult following. Six years later, the sequel became an unexpected hit in multiplexes. Made for just $250k, it took in nearly $11 million.

The third edition, with has seen overseas reports of walkouts due to its gruesomeness, could flirt with double digits out of the gate. I haven’t seen a theater count (and I’ll update this number based on that if warranted), but I’ve got achieving the best start of the newbies ahead of Saturday Night, My Hero Academia: You’re Next, Piece by Piece, and The Apprentice.

Terrifier 3 opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Briarcliff Entertainment is banking on audiences being fired up for The Apprentice when it opens October 11th. The biopic from Ali Abbasi focuses on Sebastian Stan’s Donald Trump being mentored in the 70s and 80s by ruthless lawyer Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong). Maria Bakalova (as first wife Ivana) and Martin Donovan (as patriarch Fred Trump) costar.

After its premiere at Cannes, it was questionable whether The Apprentice would debut stateside before the November 5th election. The former POTUS and current GOP candidate’s legal team threatened to block its pathway in multiplexes. A distribution deal was reached in August and here we are. Reviews are mostly of thumbs up variety at 76% on RT and 60 on Metacritic. Reactions probably aren’t strong enough to make it a Best Picture contender though Stan and Strong could be in the mix for nods.

The Apprentice‘s biggest hurdle could be a longstanding aversion to political pics when it’s all over TV. For example, 2008’s W. from Oliver Stone underwhelmed with $25 million domestically. Viewers may certainly feel they see enough of the 45th President on their home airwaves.

With a reported theater count of under 1800, this may only reach low single digits.

The Apprentice opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

Arriving in wide release exactly 49 years to the day from the event it showcases, Saturday Night expands nationwide on October 11th. From Jason Reitman, the dramedy recounts the 90 minutes leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle stars as Lorne Michaels with a large supporting cast including Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith (getting a lot of solid buzz as Chevy Chase), Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (pulling double duty as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Cooper Hoffman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste (who also provides the score).

The behind the scenes showbiz tale first premiered at Telluride to mostly favorable reaction. The RT score is 80% with 63 on Metacritic. This could contend for one of the ten slots in Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but it’s not a slam dunk nominee.

Opening just as SNL kicks off its 50th season certainly helps exposure. It debuted in five venues on September 27th in New York and L.A. to a robust $53k per screen average (second best this year after Kinds of Kindness). Saturday Night expands slightly on October 4th before the 2000 screen rollout on the 49th anniversary.

This was rightly anticipated to start out well on the coasts. I’m unconvinced general audiences will make this a sizable hit even with the (not exactly loud) awards chatter and decades long familiarity with the source material. I’m not sure this gets to $10 million and I’m putting it under.

Saturday Night opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

Focus Features hopes that audiences will be happy to attend Piece by Piece when it assembles in theaters October 11th. This is quite the interesting mashup of genres. From documentarian Morgan Neville, it is a biopic of music producer Pharrell Williams of the Neptunes told through Lego animation. Besides the central character, his musician friends Gwen Stefani, Kendrick Lamar, Timbaland, Justin Timberlake, Busta Rhymes, Jay-Z, Daft Punk, and Snoop Dogg lend their voices to the project.

After its premiere at Telluride, Piece generated mostly complimentary reaction. The RT score is 91% with Metacritic at 64. I’m not sure the reviews are strong enough that this will compete for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

With no significant buzz awards wise or elsewhere, I wonder who turns up for this. This isn’t really geared towards kids (and they could still be preoccupied with The Wild Robot). Adults aren’t likely clamoring for a Lego themed doc about the producer of “Hollaback Girl” and “Drop It Like It’s Hot”.

If this managed higher single digits for starters, Focus should consider it a victory. Slated for 1800 screens, I don’t think it gets there.

Piece by Piece opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

The animated Japanese superhero series My Hero Academia has made the bulk of its booty overseas, but performed admirably stateside. On October 11th comes the fourth feature You’re Next. Tensai Okamura takes over directorial duties with a voice cast including Daiki Yamashita, Nobuhiko Okamato, Yuki Kaji, Ayane Sakura, and Kaito Ishikawa.

Based on the manga series that kicked off in 2014, original cinematic franchise entry Two Heroes in 2018 had a limited theatrical release in the United States and Canada. In February 2020, sequel Heroes Rising earned $5.1 million for its start while October 2021’s World Heroes’ Mission upgraded a bit at $6.4 million.

We’ve had a longer layoff between parts three and four than any of the others. I doubt that will change the dynamic much and I foresee mid single digits as the best bet.

My Hero Academia: You’re Next opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

October 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million

Warner Bros hopes Joker: Folie à Deux can approach the gargantuan grosses that its predecessor earned five years ago while Lionsgate has the long delayed Wonder prequel White Bird out this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction
White Bird Box Office Prediction

A half decade ago, Joker rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $96 million debut (the best October start of all time), a $335 eventual domestic gross, and an Oscar statue for Joaquin Phoenix. With Lady Gaga joining the mayhem as Harley Quinn, word-of-mouth is more mixed for part Deux and it likely won’t achieve the hotshot premiere of part un. While my mid 50s forecast easily has it topping the charts, that’s over $40 million less out of the gate.

As for White Bird, I expect it to be another significant under performer for distributor Lionsgate who just saw Megalopolis crash and burn (more on that below). My number for Bird puts it just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, The Wild Robot might see a mid to high 40s decline after its solid beginning while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Speak No Evil‘s percentage dips should be smaller. The highest plummet in the top 5 (same as this past frame) should belong to Transformers One.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Joker: Folie à Deux

Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

2. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Speak No Evil

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (September 27-29)

DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot, with fresh reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, performed impressively with $35.7 million. That’s just ahead of my $33.8 million take and it should play well throughout the next few weeks.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after three weeks in 1st, slid to second with $16.2 million. That’s a mere 37% decline and beyond my $14.8 million prediction. The sequel has amassed $250 million in four weeks.

The news was more distressing for Transformers One as it plummeted 63% in its sophomore frame to $9.1 million. I was more generous at $11.5 million as Hasbro’s latest underwhelming franchise entry has taken in $39 million in ten days.

Epic Indian Telugu-language action flick Devara: Part 1 opened in fourth with $5.6 million with the second best per screen average in the top 10. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

Speak No Evil was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $3.4 million). The thriller sits at $28 million after three weeks.

Finally, Francis Ford Coppola’s self-financed Megalopolis (with a reported $120 million price tag) could not overcome mostly middling reviews and audience ambivalence. It was sixth with $4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. With a D+ Cinemascore, I suspect this falls over 65% in its second weekend. Ouch.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Cloud

Kiyoshi Kurosawa (no relation to Akira) premiered his latest feature Cloud at the Venice Film Festival and he’s had good luck there before. His 2020 effort Wife of a Spy took the Silver Lion (equivalent to Best Director). This psychological thriller is garnering mostly decent reviews and Japan has selected it as their pick for International Feature Film.

The nation has seen a handful of their selections nominated for the prize in the 21st century. That includes two winners (2008’s Departures, 2021’s Drive My Car) in addition to 2003’s The Twilight Samurai, 2018’s Shoplifters, and Perfect Days from last year.

With 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic score, I’m not confident the acclaim is strong enough for Japan to make the race this time. If Cloud manages to make the shortlist, however, it could sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

You can all view all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Pedro Páramo

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Skywalkers: A Love Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

The Room Next Door

The Life of Chuck

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“We’re Back” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Blitz

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Wolfs Review

Despite their effortless chemistry, George Clooney and Brad Pitt have yet to find their winning vehicle. I know many of you are now saying what about Ocean’s Eleven?!? Or Thirteen?… though probably not that Jan Brady of a franchise entry Twelve. I found the whole trio a little disappointing actually. The finest Clooney/Pitt collaboration is easily Burn After Reading from the Coen Brothers. However, the duo share mere seconds onscreen together. They are violently hilarious ones.

Wolfs is not funny or action packed enough. It encounters chop simply attempting to coast on the charms of its headliners. They play roles that might only exist in the movies – fixers. Well at least there’s a lot more of them on the silver screen like hitmen. Clooney is known only as Margaret’s Man in the credits. Margaret (Amy Ryan) is running for district attorney when she picks up a much younger man known as Kid (Austin Abrams) at a hotel. Their planned one night stand folds when Kid collapses and is presumed dead. VIPs like Margaret get a special phone number to clean up these messes and Clooney is dispatched to fix it.

So is Pitt and he’s known as Pam’s Man. Pam (voiced by Frances McDormand) runs the hotel and Pitt is their in-house problem solver. Two men whose survival hinges on working solo is disrupted when they both report for duty. Margaret goes back to campaigning as Ryan’s participation is a glorified cameo. Kid, it turns out, is not DOA as the trio must deal with bricks of heroin, Albanian gangsters, safari themed hotel rooms and back problems.

Written and directed by Jon Watts (whose become best known for the three Tom Holland Spider-Man flicks), Wolfs is not afraid to point out that its hunky leads are getting up in years. We’ve certainly seen the aging criminal story before and this struggles to find any new angles.

There’s limited pleasures. The Kid flirts with being a delightfully bizarre character here and there. I did appreciate how you’re not sure for awhile whether he’s smarter than he lets on or truly as dumb as Clooney and Pitt suspect. Or for that matter, if he’s mortal. No one makes faces of befuddled bemusement better than Pitt.

The leading men, though, still haven’t made their Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid or The Sting no matter how hard Ocean’s and Wolfs try. Finally, there’s the matter of cinematic “fixers”. My favorite is Harvey Keitel in Pulp Fiction. He basically showed up to tell Samuel L. Jackson and John Travolta to clean up the car after the latter had accidentally blown Marvin’s head off. There was no real fixing needed and Quentin Tarantino seemed in on the joke. Clooney and Pitt’s rapport doesn’t need a fix, but Wolfs is ripe for plenty of improvement.

** (out of four)