Sony Pictures is looking for One of Them Days to have several good days at the box office come January 17th. The buddy comedy stars Keke Palmer and singer SZA in her cinematic debut. Lawrence Lamont directs with a supporting cast including Vanessa Bell Calloway, Keyla Monterroso Meija, Maude Apatow, and Katt Williams.
The studio is looking for a significant African-American and female turnout, but I’m not sure the leads are enough of a draw to get this into double digits. I’ll project that the Friday to Sunday gross is in the mid to high single digits.
One of Them Days opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Universal and Blumhouse are looking for their Wolf Man reboot to tantalize audiences when it opens January 17th. Leigh Whannell, who wrote Saw and directed 2020’s successful The Invisible Man, helms with Christopher Abbott and Julia Garner headlining. Costars include Matilda Firth and Sam Jaeger.
A decade ago, this project was intended to be part of the Dark Universe franchise that started and ended with 2017’s The Mummy starring Tom Cruise. The box office for that feature stalled future installments and this pic has gone through various contributors before the final 2025 version.
Unlike The Mummy, there’s little question that this will be a profitable venture. The budget is reportedly $25 million. This could make close to $20 million out of the gate and maybe even top that figure under the best case scenario. Yet I’ll say mid to high teens is likelier.
Wolf Man opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
The Producers Guild of America (PGA) release their contenders for top film as well as animated offering this Sunday, January 12th. Last year, the PGA managed to match Oscar 10 for 10 in terms of Best Picture nominees.
That could certainly happen again and I believe eight movies are safe bets for PGA (and Oscar) inclusion: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Wicked.
After that it gets a little tricky. It is not out of the ordinary for PGA to nominate more mainstream material that the Academy ignores in BP. Examples over the past decade include Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
What could fit that description for PGA? There aren’t a lot of surefire contenders. I don’t see Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga or Gladiator II having enough juice to get into the 10. Same for Inside Out 2. I do think Challengers or Nosferatu could sneak in and I’m giving an edge to the former.
Films such as A Real Pain, September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, or All We Imagine as Light could really benefit from a slot at PGA. So too could Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Both of them are (currently) in my Oscar ten. I’ll give Nickel the slight edge over Sing at PGA.
PGA also honors animated pics and they often prioritize blockbuster fare over smaller titles. That’s why you could see Despicable Me 4, Moana 2, or TransformersOne represented here over Memoir of a Snail or even Flow.
Here’s my predictions in the two categories with an alternate in each:
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Anora
The Brutalist
Challengers
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Alternate – Sing Sing
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Directors Guild of America (DGA) is typically reliable for selecting four of the five eventual nominees at the Oscars. I suspect that might hold true this cycle. The filmmaking branch revealed their quintet of hopefuls today and they are:
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
The quartet of alphabetically early contenders are expected to make the final cut at the 97th Academy Awards while Mangold’s inclusion is more unexpected. He gets in over my pick of Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), my alternate.
I still wouldn’t rush to put Mangold in your Academy five, but it should be noted that Unknown is having an impressive run in the precursor season.
This is not good news for Villeneuve. If he can’t get DGA, the Academy might be an even larger hurdle. I suspect Fargeat may continue to be in my Oscar grouping. As for who wins this prize, Corbet looks to be the frontrunner.
Keep an eye on the blog for all major precursor action!
Prior to its February 23rd airdate on Netflix with host Kristen Bell, nominations for the 31st SAG Awards were unveiled this morning. The planned in-person event revealing the nominees was scuttled due to the wildfires in southern California and were delivered via press release instead.
Bottom line – I went 22 for 30 in my predictions and there were some genuine shockers (particularly in the supporting contests). Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some commentary.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Pretty happy about this result! Unlike most SAG years, all five contenders here should make the list of the 10 BP hopefuls at the Oscars. Considering that Wicked led all pictures in terms of nominations, it could be out front though I wouldn’t discount Pérez.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
How I Did: 4/5
Angelina Jolie (Maria) is having a tough season lately and her Oscar chances are in serious jeopardy. She didn’t make the BAFTA long list and fell short to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at the Golden Globes in the dramatic lead actress competition. Now she misses the cut with SAG and it’s Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) getting in. Could Moore’s momentum after her Globes victory continue here or will it be Madison emerging victorious?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Clarence Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
How I Did: 4/5
The core four (Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Fiennes) are present but it is Daniel Craig getting the nod over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. That fifth slot is up for grabs at Oscar while Brody and Chalamet could compete for the ultimate prize.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 3/5
The supporting races are where SAG really provide some surprises this time around with Barbaro and Curtis. They’re in over my forecasted nominees Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). I would’ve figured Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) had better shots than Barbaro/Curtis so this is a bit out of left field. Expect this to be between Saldaña and Grande.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 2/5 (oof)
And we’re even more in unanticipated territory with Supporting Actor as Bailey, Borisov, and Strong (who was my alternate) are in with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) out. I genuinely am surprised that SAG left out Pearce and Washington. The former is considered Culkin’s main competitor this season. That may no longer be the case as Culkin could sweep the upcoming ceremonies. Side note – not a great morning for The Brutalist with Brody being the pic’s sole nominee.
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga over Wicked. I would think The Fall Guy, which is about stunt performers, could be the selection.
And there you have it, folks! Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar precursor chatter…
Gerard Butler’s sequel Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is not the only fresh wide release this weekend, but I believe it’s the sole newbie that will be in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Thieves here:
The follow-up to the 2018 heist thriller could see a start in the low double digits to possibly low teens. That’s not exactly an impressive start, but it should be enough to manage the #2 spot just behind Mufasa in this sleepy January frame.
That’s based on the assumption that current champ Mufasa: The Lion King falls in the low to mid 40s with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 dwindling closer to 50%. Nosferatu may experience the smallest decline (perhaps mid 30s) with Moana 2 rounding out the top five.
As mentioned, there are other newcomers debuting or expanding wide. That includes the Telugu-language action thriller Game Changer, The Last Showgirl with Pamela Anderson, and monkey themed Robbie Williams biopic Better Man. I’m not envisioning any breaking into that high five so here’s how I see the chart playing out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (January 3-5)
The New Year rang in with holiday leftovers and Mufasa: The Lion King continuing its perch atop the chart. Disney’s product took in $23.4 million, a shade below my $25.1 million forecast. The three-week total stands at $168 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was runner-up with $21.3 million, on target with my $20.9 million call. The Sega property’s three-week gross is $187 million.
Nosferatu was third in its sophomore frame with $13 million, in line with my $13.4 million projection. The 40% drop for the horror title is commendable and it’s up to $69 million with over $100 million when counting worldwide earnings.
Animated sequel Moana 2 was fourth with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) for a six-week tally of $425 million.
Wicked was fifth and it dropped further in its seventh outing than I figured at $9.9 million compared to my $14.2 million estimate. Nevertheless the Golden Globe recipient for Cinematic & Box Office Achievement has amassed $450 million.
Finally, A Complete Unknown was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.1 million. I went a little higher at $9.3 million as the Bob Dylan biopic has made $41 million.
Before we get to the headlines (and certainly there are), let’s dispense with some quick takes on the 82nd Golden Globes Awards ceremony. Nikki Glaser did a very good job hosting and I’d expect to see her back. Seth Rogen correctly pointed out that the camera angle on the presenters tonight was awkward. And Vin Diesel made the evening awkward too when he said hi from the stage to Dwayne Johnson. They famously did not get along working together on Fast and Furious franchise features.
Back to the awards. I went 9 for 15 in my picks. Quite frankly, I would’ve been pleased with getting over half in this unpredictable ceremony and I did so I’ll take it. Emilia Pérez had a big night with four victories. So did The Brutalist with three. Anora… not so much.
Jacques Audiard’s Pérez took three prizes I predicted it would in Non-English Language Film, Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), and Original Song (“El Mal”). Yet I had it falling short to Sean Baker’s Anora for Best Musical/Comedy and it prevailed. Has Pérez‘s stock risen? Probably.
Those who have followed my Oscar predictions on the blog will notice I’ve never had Anora listed in first in Best Picture. A lot of other prognosticators have. I’m not patting myself on the back. This is one of the more unpredictable seasons in memory. I’ve just never bought the narrative that Anora will take the grand prize and tonight fuels it.
A bigger surprise than Anora losing Musical/Comedy, in my view, was Mikey Madison not taking Actress. That went instead to Demi Moore in The Substance, who gave the strongest acceptance speech of the night. You have to wonder if this makes Moore the frontrunner. I have had Madison listed for weeks in 1st place for the Academy’s Actress statue and that could change when I update my picks in the next couple of days (hopefully tomorrow). Anora also didn’t get Screenplay and I thought it would. That went instead to Conclave.
After Conclave‘s screenplay award, I thought maybe it would go onto take Best Drama. However, Globe voters opted for The Brutalist (which my was pick). Its maker Brady Corbet won Director. I also had it forecasted for Original Score but that went to Challengers in a surprise call. I’ve had The Brutalist placed in 1st for months in BP for the Oscars. Interestingly, in the previous ten years, only 3 GG Drama winners correlated with Oscar (Moonlight, Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). I still think it’s the odds on favorite.
Adrien Brody did give The Brutalist a third Globe in Best Actor and I went with Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. This could signal Brody’s performance will be favored in ceremonies to come. I also missed Best Actress (Drama). I went with Angelina Jolie in Maria while my runner-up Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) made the podium walk.
With Moore and Torres victorious over Madison and Jolie, the Oscar Best Actress is looking wide open with several hopefuls jockeying for position.
Let’s run down some races I got right. Kieran Culkin is your Supporting Actor for A Real Pain. The hard to figure out Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy derby is one I was lucky with when Sebastian Stan in A Different Man was picked. Wicked took the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement award. And I will pat myself on the back for going with Flow in Animated Feature instead of The Wild Robot.
So where do we stand now with Oscar as I prepare a new forecast? Anora is down. Emilia is up. The Brutalist holds strong. Demi Moore could be a real threat in Actress. And I think Dwayne Johnson still dislikes Vin Diesel…
Nominations for the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards roll out this Wednesday, January 8th. They are, of course, another key precursor before Oscar noms are unveiled January 17th. However, this branch can often go there own way and that’s especially true for lead Actress and the supporting fields. Let’s take a walk through all six feature film categories with my picks, a runner-up possibility, and some commentary.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
At the last five SAGs, 18 of the 25 nominees matched the Oscar selections. In none of the years did SAG and the Academy match 5 for 5. Therefore, I’m hesitant to project my current Oscar quintet of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Demi Moore (The Substance). I would say Gascón, Madison, and Moore feel relatively safe with Erivo and Jolie (especially after missing the BAFTA long list) vulnerable. Who could spoil the party? I wouldn’t discount Kate Winslet (Lee), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), or Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Yet I just can’t decide who to take out the original group so I’m (reluctantly) sticking with it.
Predicted Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Runner-Up: Kate Winslet, Lee
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
In this contest, SAG and the Academy is more synced up at 22/25 over the past five years and 5 for 5 matches in 2020, 2021, and 2023 and 4 for 5 for 2019 and 2022. That means I’m feeling confident about these four slots that most agree will achieve Oscar status – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). It’s that fifth one that’s a question mark. I currently have Daniel Craig (Queer) clinging to the Academy spot. However, I could see SAG going for either Hugh Grant (Heretic) or Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). I’ll go with the latter.
Predicted Nominees:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Like Actress, there’s an 18 for 25 SAG/Oscar matchup over the previous half decade. In 2020, there was only a 2 for 5 match while it was 5/5 in 2022. I feel like only two performers are safe: Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. Despite the short screen time, Isabella Rossellini in Conclave seems likely. For Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, she needs to show up here and I have her barely making the cut. While I have Felicity Jones currently getting an Oscar nod for The Brutalist, she may be on the outside looking in here. The fifth slot could be Saldaña’s costar Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, or either Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown. I’m going to roll the dice with Gomez on this one which would cause Pérez to probably lead all nominated pictures.
Predicted Nominees:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
There’s a 17 for 25 SAG/Oscar match here. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has a reserved spot in the five and I feel like SAG won’t ignore Denzel Washington from Gladiator II. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) is probably close to a shoo-in. For the last two spots, I would think they’d go for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing unless they figure an Ensemble nomination is recognition enough. For the five spot, I had it between Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) with the former having the edge. I’ll be honest. I hate that this is my current Oscar quintet but it is what it is. Keep an eye on surprisers like Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), or Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)
Predicted Nominees:
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Runner-Up: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
As an annual reminder, SAG isn’t honoring “Best Picture”. It’s their favorite ensemble. Normally there’s at least one nominee that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Perhaps Saturday Night is that movie, but I’m skeptical. The top 7 possibilities here – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked – are all serious BP contenders. The Brutalist (despite being first in my Oscar mix at the moment) could be vulnerable due to its smaller cast. It’s a coin flip as to what else comes out, but I’m going with Sing Sing.
Predicted Nominees:
Anora
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Give credit to SAG as they give credit to stunt performers and this sure seems like a competition that’s tailor-made for The Fall Guy in 2024. Other possibilities include Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and maybe even Wicked. I also wouldn’t discount Dev Patel’s Monkey Man. That said, I’m forecasting Deadpool & Wolverine enough though Mr. Pool’s two predecessors didn’t get in here.
Predicted Nominees:
Deadpool & Wolverine
Dune: Part Two
The Fall Guy
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator II
Runner-Up: Monkey Man
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
4 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Wicked
2 Nominations
Anora, The Brutalist, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Maria, Monkey Man, The Piano Lesson, A Real Pain, The Substance
This Wednesday (01/08), the Directors Guild of America reveals their five nominees for behind the camera achievement in 2024. The DGA is normally a reliable barometer to project 4 of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past decade, the match has been that margin in eight of the years. For two of the years, the match was 3 for 5. That includes last year when Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) made the DGA cut but Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) received Academy attention.
I believe there are two shoo-in nominees for the 77th ceremony in Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Furthermore, I see Edward Berger (Conclave) as really close to being an automatic pick.
Then it gets interesting. The DGA often prioritizes American pictures over foreign entries or foreign directors. We certainly saw that last year with Gerwig/Payne over Glazer/Triet. In 2021, Denis Villeneuve was in the DGA quintet for Dune while Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) replaced him in the Academy five. In 2022, it was Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) vying for Oscar instead of DGA selection Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick.
That’s why I wouldn’t pencil in Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) here. And that’s why being skeptical about Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) is warranted. Both could get in and both movies are over performing in various precursors. Pérez, it could be argued, is doing so by an even more impressive margin. That’s why I’m leaving Audiard in while Fargeat is barely on the outside looking in.
So who gets the fifth slot? I wouldn’t count out RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or even James Mangold for A Complete Unknown or Jon M. Chu for Wicked (though I’m finding that one increasingly unlikely). I’m reminded that DGA also selects some filmmakers for blockbuster fare the Academy ignores. Gerwig for Barbie and Kosinski for Top Gun. Ridley Scott for The Martian.
And… Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I think history could repeat itself with Villeneuve in contention for the sequel and that’s the direction I’m going for DGA.
Lionsgate, who had a rough run in 2024 (The Crow, Megalopolis), hopes 2025 begins better with Den of Thieves: Pantera on January 10th. Christian Gudegast returns to the director’s seat for this follow-up to 2018’s action drama. Gerard Butler, O’Shea Jackson Jr., and Meadow Williams reprise their roles from seven years ago with Evin Ahmed and Salvatore Esposito joining the cast.
The original was reportedly shot for $30 million and it made half its budget back opening weekend with a $44 million eventual domestic gross and $80 million total globally. Whether that’s enough to warrant a sequel is a good question.
I think this might fall under the $15.3 million that its predecessor took in though the lack of competition could mean it over performs my estimate.
Den of Thieves: Pantera opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 