Three years after its predecessor was a sleeper hit, Dolphin Tale 2 swims into theaters this Friday and will attempt a #1 opening. It’s got a very good shot. Actor turned director Charles Martin Smith is behind the camera once again and stars of Dolphin Tale Harry Connick Jr., Ashley Judd, Kris Kristofferson, and Morgan Freeman all return.
In September of 2011, the original debuted to $19.1 million on its way to a $72 million domestic gross. Those earnings were enough for Warner Bros. to green light a sequel. The big question is whether or not Dolphin Tale 2 grosses more than its predecessor and on that one, I’m skeptical. I simply don’t believe the first is beloved enough for audiences to flock to it. That being said, Dolphin Tale 2 should earn enough to get it to the #1 spot in a currently weak marketplace.
Dolphin Tale 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson star in the thriller No Good Deed, out Friday. It’s one of two pics (along with Dolphin Tale 2) attempting to interrupt the box office reign of Guardians of the Galaxy.
Deed puts Elba in the role of a stranger terrorizing Henson and her family. The film could succeed in bringing in a female audience and will attempt to cater to the same crowd that made Halle Berry’s The Call an unexpected hit last year. That film seems like a decent comparison to Deed. In March 2013, The Call debuted to a solid $17 million. I would expect No Good Deed won’t quite reach that number, due to the fact that it’s scheduled to open on approximately 500 less screens. Nevertheless I anticipate a decent opening for this.
No Good Deed opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
The Toronto Film Festival kicked off two days ago and you can expect the Oscar picture will become a bit clearer once some of the heavyweights are screened over the next few days.
One such picture is St. Vincent, which debuted last night as part of Bill Murray Day at the festival. For movie lovers, though, isn’t everyday Bill Murray Day??
Reaction to the pic has been quite positive, though its reviews suggest it could have an uphill battle to be recognized in the Best Picture race. On the other hand, Mr. Murray could be in position to receive his second Best Actor nomination, eleven years after his first for Lost in Translation. There’s already stiff competition – as Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) also seem to be likely nominees with several other actors films having not yet screened.
Still, Murray is a living legend and if St. Vincent connects with audiences, he could certainly be in the running. St. Vincent opens domestically on October 24.
We’ve reached the last day for my first round of Oscar predictions and that means we’ve arrived at the biggest category of them all – Best Picture! If you missed my other five posts covering Director and all four acting races, you can find them here:
Since 2011, the Best Picture race is the only category where there can be more than five nominees and it can range anywhere between 5-10. In each of the three years since the system was put in place, there have been nine nominated films. I’m going against the trend (call it a gut feeling, subject change) and predicting the magic number will be eight in 2014. And with that, my first predictions for Best Picture, with other possible nominees listed after:
The first weekend of September is practically assured to be quite a tepid one at the box office as only one (low profile) release is being released, the faith based musical drama The Identical. For my detailed prediction post on it, click here:
That leaves summer holdovers to likely populate the top five once again, with superhero teams Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles continuing to hold the top spots. Not much more to say this week as it will be a boring movie weekend before some higher profile fall releases get underway soon.
With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. If I Stay
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)
5. The November Man
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
That would leave newbie The Identical with a predicted seventh place debut, just behind As Above/So Below.
Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)
As expected, the Labor Day weekend was a relatively quiet one as Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first with a four day haul of $22.9 million, just above my $21.1M projection. The Marvel phenomenon and summer 2014’s biggest grosser has amassed $281 million so far and should soon surpass $300M.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was again second with $15.6 million, below my generous $19.3M estimate. The reboot stands at an impressive $166M.
In its sophomore weekend, If I Stay was third with $11.7 million, below my once again generous $17.2M prediction. Its two week total is $32 million and it should finish out with less than $50M.
Fourth place belonged to Let’s Be Cops in its third weekend with $10.3 million, in line with my $11.4M estimate. The comedy has taken in $59M at press time and should reach $70M plus.
Opening in fifth was horror flick As Above/So Below with an unimpressive $10.2 million, just below my $11.8M projection. Below continued the 2014 trend of horror pics underwhelming, but its studio can take solace in that it only cost $5M to make.
The Pierce Brosnan spy film The November Man debuted just behind it with $10.1 million and $11.7 million since its Wednesday debut. It outdid my four day projection of $8.1M but its six day total was right in line with my $11M estimate. Tepid reviews didn’t help it.
Finally, sports drama When the Game Stands Tall was seventh in weekend #2 with $8.1 million, below my $9.8M projection. Its two week total stands at $18M and it’ll peter out at around $35 million at best.
It’s a feeling that I simply couldn’t shake when I watched 2012’s reboot The Amazing Spider-Man: this movie isn’t necessary. Yet it was. If Sony Pictures wanted to keep the rights to the Spidey brand (and did they ever), a new pic had to be produced. Tobey Maguire and Kirsten Dunst weren’t interested in a fourth entry so the franchise was started over just ten years after it began.
However, that didn’t mean it felt necessary… Sony’s financial consideration aside. Too often The Amazing Spider-Man felt like a remake of 2002’s original and there was no reason to have one. There were silver linings. The chemistry between Andrew Garfield as Peter Parker/Spidey and Emma Stone as Gwen Stacy was stronger than the Maguire/Dunst dynamic. Come to think of it… that was about the only silver lining in director Andrew Webb’s playbook. The rest of the pic was reasonably entertaining but familiar… way too familiar.
This brings us to the inevitable sequel in which the filmmakers (Webb returns behind the camera) inexplicably make the same errors that sunk the original trilogy by the time the mediocre Spider-Man 3 entered multiplexes in 2007. Too many villains. Too many subplots you don’t care about. It’s the same problems that have hindered Batman and Iron Man flicks in their weakest entries, too.
New characters include Jamie Foxx as Electro/Max Dillon, an Oscorp employees who worships Spider-Man and then finds himself as his nemesis when an electrical accident turns him into a super villain. His character is not terribly interesting and Foxx’s performance is not among his strongest.
Dane Dehaan is Harry Osborn, who takes over his Dad’s corporation following his death. Harry finds out he’s terminally ill and believes he needs Spidey’s blood to keep him alive. He doesn’t know his best childhood friend Peter Parker is also… well, you know. Complications ensue and an iconic baddie from Spidey lore enters the picture. Dehaan gives the role his all, but by the time his metamorphosis occurs, you’re checking your watch.
There’s also Paul Giamatti in a curiously small role as a Russian mobster who you won’t care about and where the character’s incredibly talented and Oscar nominated actor hams it up pretty embarrassingly.
And Sally Field is back as Aunt May with Campbell Scott and Embeth Davidtz returning in flashback sequences as Peter’s parents. Denis Leary as Gwen’s late father is also seen, but not heard.
The picture’s only strength lies in the genuine chemistry of Garfield and Stone, just like in the first. It’s not enough. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has that unmistakable whiff of needlessness that plagued its predecessor. There’s a sequence in the beginning when Gwen and Peter are having a quarrel and she sadly says, “You have done this again and again, Peter Parker! I can’t live like this.” We’ve seen that scene between Spidey and his girl again and again… and again… and again. We’ve seen the breakup of Peter and Gwen… and Peter and Mary Jane. And we’ve seen it too much in the past 12 years. Sony Pictures needs to keep the gravy train rolling, but I can live without this fading franchise.
Day 4 is here with my initial round of Oscar predictions and we’re at Best Actor. Interestingly, the seventeen actors I have listed as possibilities have never won the award previously. As with the other categories, I am listing my five predicted nominees along with others who could find themselves in the mix. To peruse my other posts covering the Supporting races and Actress, you can find them here:
Another day, another potential Oscar contender to discuss on the blog. This time it’s The Imitation Game from the Weinstein Company, which had its world premiere this weekend at the Telluride Film Festival and opens domestically November 21. The film is a biopic of Alan Turing, known for cracking Nazi codes during World War II and, based on early buzz, the man playing Turing is receiving the most awards talk.
That would be Benedict Cumberbatch, best known to viewers as TV’s “Sherlock” and pictures including Star Trek Into Darkness and 12 Years a Slave. He has yet to receive an Oscar nomination, though it could certainly change based on initial reviews of his work here. Cumberbatch joins a Best Actor race that already seems ultra competitive (just like last year) and I’ll have my first predictions in that race on the blog tomorrow.
The Imitation Game could potentially be a player in the Picture, Director (Morten Tyldum), and Supporting Actress (Keira Knightley) categories. The Weinstein studio is better than any other at generating Oscar buzz for their works. Yet Telluride gave the biggest boost to Cumberbatch and he’s a likely name to be seen when nominations are announced early next year.
The weekend after Labor Day is often the slowest box office frame of the entire year and 2014 stands an excellent chance at keeping that tradition going. There is only one new release opening wide Friday and it’s not a very high profile one – The Identical, a musical drama that will attempt to bring in faith-based audiences. I’m highly skeptical that it will. The decades spanning period piece imagines that Elvis Presley’s identical twin does not die during childbirth and grows up unaware of his famous lineage while struggling to forge his own music career.
The Identical has some recognizable faces in supporting roles, including Ashley Judd, Ray Liotta, and Joe Pantoliano. Real life Elvis impersonator Blake Rayne is in the title role. Marketing for the pic has seemed minimal and it opens on a low numbers of screens (approximately 1450). Being the only newbie in town next weekend, it seems destined for a bad opening well behind holdovers Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
The Identical opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
Today we’ve arrived at day 3 of my first round of Oscar predictions and that means Best Actress is on deck. If you missed my early calls for the Supporting categories, you can read them here:
We’ll get to Actor, Director, and Picture soon enough – but for now, here’s my list of my current Actress predictions with other possibilities also listed. In my original Actress predictions in 2013, I yielded four of the five eventual nominees, so we’ll see if that holds true here, too!
Let’s get to it!
Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Actress
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 