Warner Bros family feature Max, out Friday, has quite a bit working against it when you consider its competition. It won’t be the movie most kids are going to see next weekend factoring in Jurassic World and Inside Out. It won’t be the highest grosser with an animal with Ted 2 opening the same day. It won’t even be the biggest summer grosser with the word Max in it when factoring in that mad one from May.
The studio’s best hope is that critics like it and it becomes a word of mouth sleeper hit, which is an uphill climb. Max tells the story of a military working dog who returns home from Afghanistan and Remember the Titans director Boaz Yakin is behind the camera. Thomas Haden Church, Lauren Graham and Jay Hernandez are among the human costars.
Unless Max succeeds in bringing in a sizable military contingent, the pic seems destined for a premiere in the low to mid teens for a probable fourth place showing next weekend.
Kingsman: The Secret Service is an homage to old school spy flicks if those particular movies from the 60s could have featured lots of gory and video game style violence. This genre of film from Bond to Bourne has turned more serious as of late and Kingsman aims to be the antidote. There are a number of clever moments and there is excitement present, but I could never completely shake the feeling that Matthew Vaughn’s latest often feels about half as cool as it thinks it is. The director takes his Kick-Ass attitude to these proceedings and the result never quite reaches the level of fun of that aforementioned effort.
The Kingsman are a group of British super spies whose London store front tailor shop hides the underground lair of gadgetry and much more. Michael Caine is their leader and Colin Firth one of their veteran agents. The picture begins in the late 90s as one Kingsman saves Firth’s life while losing his own. The deceased’s young son Eggsy (Taron Egerton) is visited by Firth and given a code to call the Kingsman if he should ever be in trouble. Flash forward to seventeen years later and Eggsy is a rebellious and aimless youth who does end up making that call and he’s soon recruited to try out for the organization that his dad died for.
He joins a number of other youth in their lengthy auditions for membership to the Kingsman and these scenes are a bit similar to some in Vaughn’s previous movie, X-Men: First Class. The bad guy in the mix is Richmond Valentine (Samuel L. Jackson), a billionaire who aims to wipe out most of the Earth’s population except for a privileged few royals and celebrities (Iggy Azalea is humorously mentioned as one of the survivors). It is the character of Valentine’s and Jackson’s lisping and off kilter portrayal of him that tells you most of what you need to know about the movie. Vaughn and his cowriters wish to harken back to the days of the ridiculous 007 villains. It’s a delicate thing for the screenwriters to get this right while all the over the top Tarantino-esque bloody violence is happening and it doesn’t always succeed. Some of the time, I almost expected Dr. Evil to stand alongside Valentine. Other times the story seems to forget it wants to be a satire at all.
That said, the performers give it their all and it’s particularly amusing to see Oscar winner Firth in a true badass mode. He has one scene located in a Kentucky church that stands as the most memorable. Newcomer Egerton may have a bright future and Jackson definitely seems to be enjoying himself. This is an undeniably stylish exercise and the action centerpieces are directed with the trademark energy we’ve come to expect from Vaughn. On a side note, the climactic battle may have you furiously Shazaming the funky track playing in the background. It’s Give It Up by KC and the Sunshine Band. You’re welcome.
The talent involved with Kingsman is considerable. I just wish I got the same kinetic thrill I received from Vaughn’s Kick-Ass and X-Men: First Class. It tries hard, but this concoction of self aware spoof with cartoonish violence and occasionally tired social and political satire plays more like a curiosity than the success stories of the filmmaker’s previous offerings.
One year following the critical and commercial disappointment of A Million Ways to Die in the West, Seth MacFarlane should find himself back in the good graces of audiences with Ted 2, out Friday. The sequel to the 2012 mega hit brings back Mark Wahlberg and most importantly, that foul mouthed talking teddy bear. Mila Kunis is out and Amanda Seyfried is in with Morgan Freeman and Liam Neeson among other new cast members.
Three summers ago, Ted debuted to a terrific $54.4 million on its way to a $218 million domestic take. The real question is whether or not part two exceeds the gross of the original out of the gate. This is certainly possible and it has the potential to reach $6o million or more next weekend. Yet I’m somewhat skeptical. There is a chance that the Ted novelty may have waned slightly and that may cause a debut slightly under its predecessor’s hot start. Critics were kind to the first and we’ve yet to see if that continues here. Its numbers might improve if word of mouth approaches that of the 2012 blockbuster, but that seems unlikely.
I’ll predict Ted 2 falls just shy of the $54 million achieved when Ted became the sleeper hit of summer 2012.
For anyone under the age of about 30, it’s difficult to put into words just how amazing Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park was when it debuted in theaters during the summer of 1993. As moviegoers today, we are accustomed to astonishing visual effects almost every week, especially during this season. Yet when those dinosaurs made their first appearance on screen 22 years ago, our jaws dropped along with Laura Dern and Sam Neill’s. It was a triumph of special effects and now our nostalgia factor with the original has reached the beloved status.
I never could quite put Jurassic Park alongside my Spielberg foursome of popcorn classics that are Jaws, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial. Don’t get me wrong – it’s a near great motion picture experience that’s only flaw is my indifference to the human characters that populate it. Having said that, we all know that the prehistoric creatures are the real stars of this series.
It is in that context that Colin Trevorrow’s Jurassic World mostly succeeds, more so than sequels we saw in 1997 and 2001. We have new dinos to feast on our eyes upon their creepy looking and menacing eyes. The script allows a proper amount of reverence for 1993’s groundbreaking picture, but none for the follow-ups because few of us have much reverence for them.
And we have to have the scared kids, right? Here it’s teenager Nick Robinson and little bro Ty Simpkins visiting their aunt (Bryce Dallas Howard), who is Jurassic World’s busy bee operations manager. Their parents are getting ready to divorce in grand and cliched fashion and their week long excursion to the park on Isla Nublar goes astray when the genetically designed new theme park attraction Indominus rex escapes his confines and his big debut involves terrorizing visitors. This doesn’t sit well with Jurassic’s head of security (Vincent D’Onofrio, hamming it up in a winking performance) and we learn of his plans to train some of the park’s dinos for military combat purposes. Let us ponder that – how cool would it be if that actually happened and we got to see it in an inevitable sequel/spinoff, eh?
Our main hero dealing with all this dino drama is Owen (Chris Pratt), an expert handler of the creatures who more than earns his overtime pay in these two hours plus. It is Pratt’s effortless charisma that makes him just about the most entertaining human character this franchise has given us thus far. His sidebar romance with Howard is perfunctory and tolerable. Pratt doesn’t get to let loose quite as much as he did in last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy, but he is a very welcome addition to the proceedings.
The special effects and design of the creatures will simply never rival the wonder factor from over two decades ago. Still these dinosaurs look pretty darn awesome and seeing them in the setting that Richard Attenborough’s Hammond wanted them in is a summertime treat. Jurassic World accomplishes this by reminding us how thrilling and fun this series can be in a way we haven’t experienced since the very first time we saw those now iconic park gates.
Another record could be broken for the second weekend in a row as Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out debuts this Friday. It will take on the sophomore frame of Jurassic World, which exceeded all expectations this past weekend – to say the least (more on that below). You can read my detailed Inside Out prediction post here:
If Inside Out holds to my prediction, it will provide Pixar with its third highest and largest non-sequel debut in its existence. However, that will probably not be enough to get it to the #1 spot considering what Jurassic will make even it drops close to 60%. That means Inside could set the record for highest non #1 opening in domestic history, which is currently held by 2004’s The Day After Tomorrow with $68.7 million.
The only other newbie this weekend is the urban comedic drama Dope, which I expect to open outside the top five with $4.6 million (I didn’t do an individual post on it).
**Wednesday June 17 bloggers update: I have upgraded my Dope estimate after its announced 2000 screen rollout which is higher than I expected. New prediction is $7.7 million.
And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top five:
1. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $88.3 million (representing a drop of 57%)
2. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $71.4 million
3. Spy
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 42%
4. Dope
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
5. San Andreas
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 52%)
Box Office Results (June 12-14)
In a word… WOW! Jurassic World. No one really saw this coming as the dino reboot accomplished the #1 domestic box office opening… not of the year, but of all time! Its gross of $208.8 million edged out three year record holder The Avengers, which made $207.4M. I predicted a meager $123.5M debut for Jurassic and, was I way off or what?!?!?! So was everyone else. Clearly the nostalgia factor stemming from the 1993 original and the fact that every kid in America wanted to see it (and Chris Pratt and mostly positive reviews) turned this into an event experience. This puts Jurassic World in a position to be the summer’s biggest hit, something everyone assumed Avengers: Age of Ultron would have little trouble achieving. Amazing.
The dinosaur love contributed to pretty much everything else in the top five dropping more than I anticipated. Spy was second with $15.6 million (I said $19.7M) and its two weeks total is at $56.5M. The Melissa McCarthy comedy may just clear $100M when all is said and done.
San Andreas was third with $10.8 million compared to my $12.6M projection and its total is at $119.1M. Insidious: Chapter 3 made $7.3 million in weekend #2 (under my $8.9M estimate) and it’s made $37.3M. Pitch Perfect 2 was fifth with $6.3 million (for a $171.1M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. My #5 prediction Entourage was sixth with $4.3 million, under my $5.7M prediction and its two weeks total is at a weak $25.8M.
Get Hard is a limp premise that wastes the pairing of two talented stars of the genre in a sea of dated jokes. In this film’s world, gay and racial humor is displayed in full force and the writers seem to believe it’s edgy just because it exists on the page and its high profile performers are saying the lines. It doesn’t connect and the result is a pic that will soon be easily forgotten on both Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart’s resumes.
James King (Ferrell) is a hedge fund manager who’s engaged to his boss’s (Craig T. Nelson) materialistic and cliched money grubbing daughter (Alison Brie). Darnell (Hart) runs the car wash business that services King’s building. When King is wrongfully convicted of embezzlement, he enlists Darnell to help him cope with his upcoming ten year stint at San Quentin. You see, King assumes Darnell has done hard time because… well, he’s black and he believes statistically there’s a likelihood of it. When Darnell is promised $30,000 to assist with King’s request, he is perfectly OK with misleading him.
This sets up elaborate scenes in which Darnell simulates prison riots and instructs King on how to stand up for himself. Mostly it involves advice on how not to get raped in the joint. Lots and lots of jokes about it, which are all stale. The filmmakers even go as far as putting King in a situation where he must learn to, um, service a man should he have to. It’s more uncomfortable than funny. Like the entire idea of this venture.
Get Hard is not anywhere close to as dangerous as it wants to be. It must waste some of its running time investigating who really is behind the crimes King is charged with and that part is dull. The rest of the way is gay joke, racial joke, gay joke, racial joke. Mixed in occasionally is tired commentary on how corporate America contains the real bad guys, a thread also common in much more rewarding Ferrell fare like The Other Guys and The Campaign. Even what purports to be the pic’s comedic highlights, like Ferrell accidentally getting injured by a weapon, only reminded me of when he did it better like in Old School. And let’s face it – how many times have we already seen Will use his naked body as a punchline? It’s here too! The main side effect of taking the journey to Get Hard in this case is absence of laughter.
Pixar and Disney are back in the summer mix with Inside Out, opening Friday. The hit studio surprisingly sat the summer of 2o14 out and it was the first time Pixar hadn’t had a summer entry since 2005. Inside Out comes from Pete Docter, who made the acclaimed and Oscar nominated Up in 2009. The pic features the voices of Amy Poehler, Bill Hader, Mindy Kaling and Lewis Black. While critical kudos are widely expected for these animated offerings, Out’s reaction has been remarkable with its 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It could certainly contend for a Best Picture nod come Academy time next year.
The studio has had consistent openings for its features. Eight of the fourteen Pixar movies have debuted with numbers between $60 and $70 million. Only their sequels have earned higher. It’s easy to see Inside Out falling right in line with the expectations. I’ll say it manages to take in just over $70M, which would earn it the distinction of best Pixar non sequel premiere and third best overall.
Inside Out opening weekend prediction: $71.4 million
On this Throwback Thursday and on the evening of the debut of the franchise reboot Jurassic World, it would be obvious to pontificate about the original Jurassic Park. It opened 22 years ago today and is widely and deservedly considered a modern day classic. I, however, chose to go in a different direction and talk about The Lost World: Jurassic Park, which stood as one of the most breathlessly awaited sequels ever in the summer of 1997. While the dino sequel certainly has its share of moments, impressive visuals and well constructed action sequences – the thrill, as the late B.B. King put it, is gone – mostly.
The Lost World picks up four years after the events of the original and stars Sam Neill and Laura Dern are nowhere to be found (they would come out of extinction for the third installment). Instead Dr. Ian Malcolm (Jeff Goldblum), the wise cracking comic relief from part one is the headliner. He’s still understandably shaken up from the events that transpired on Isla Nublar and things don’t improve when John Hammond (Richard Attenborough) informs him that there was always a second island where the replicated dinosaurs are developed. To add insult to injury, Ian’s girlfriend Sarah (Julianne Moore), a paleontologist, is already on the island documenting them. It’s all part of Hammond’s way of protecting his money grubbing family from turning the island into a theme park, which he knows darn well didn’t work out so hot four years ago.
This all leads to Malcolm going after Sarah, along with his young daughter and an eco activist videographer (Vince Vaughn, fresh off Swingers). As you might expect, it’s not a simple mission and the new island finds plenty of angry dinosaurs while Malcolm and company also must contend with a separate team led by Hammond’s greedy nephew and a hunter (Pete Postlethwaite) whose mission is to bag a T. rex.
With Steven Spielberg returning behind the camera, it’s no surprise that there are cleverly directed action sequences. The most thrilling involves a trailer and slowly breaking glass. Problem is, while the first Jurassic was so influential, World often feels like leftovers. For moviegoers too young to remember the release of Park in 1993, there’s really no way to properly explain just how awe struck it left audiences. We had never seen visuals like it and hearing that T. Rex growling loudly in our eardrums was exhilarating. When that film’s characters gasped at the creatures the first time they saw them, so did we. The Lost World has its fun moments, but the fresh factor is eliminated. Taking Ian Malcolm from an effective supporting player to hero doesn’t always work and his wise cracks might be more plentiful but they’re twice as corny. The other human characters contribute little. Don’t get me wrong – the dinosaurs look friggin sweet and there’s more of them but a better viewing experience it does not make.
By the time we arrive at the climax set in San Diego, the sight of T. Rex terrorizing the city seems like little more than Spielberg’s chance to make a short Godzilla tribute. We see a relic of the past terrorize the city, including a Blockbuster Video, another relic from the past. As Jurassic World is about to premiere, it will be the 1993 version we have in our hearts and minds for comparisons sake. The quality of this sequel is justified as a mixed bag, which explains it having been mostly lost in the world of conversation this week.
Just like they did 22 summers ago, the dinosaurs shall rule the box office this weekend as Jurassic World should easily dominate. The fourth entry in the franchise looks to score the third best opening weekend of 2015 (following Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7). You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
With Jurassic being the only new film in release, that leaves holdovers. Current champ Spy should have the smallest decline while Insidious: Chapter 3 is likely to suffer the largest, as horror pics usually do.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $123.5 million
2. Spy
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)
3. San Andreas
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
4. Insidious: Chapter 3
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 61%)
5. Entourage
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 45%)
Box Office Results (June 5-7)
As expected, the critically acclaimed Melissa McCarthy comedy Spy debuted at #1. However, its $29 million take did not match the openings of her 2013 efforts Identity Thief or The Heat and didn’t come close to my $42.1M prediction. This is still a solid opening for McCarthy and it should suffer smallish declines in coming weekends.
San Andreas dropped to second with $25.8 million, just above my $24.3M projection. The hit disaster thriller has amassed $98.4M in its two weeks of release.
Insidious: Chapter 3 couldn’t come close to what part 2 accomplished, but it still managed a commendable $22.6 million, under my $26M estimate. As mentioned above, look for it to fade fast, however.
The film version of HBO’s Entourage had a muted opening with $10.2 million, just below my $11.2M prediction. The five-day gross of $17.6 million (it opened on Wednesday) did just manage to outpace my $16.5M projection.
I incorrectly had Pitch Perfect 2 at fifth with an estimate of $8.4 million, but it was sixth with my $7.5M (its total stands at $160.8M). Mad Max: Fury Road ended up taking the five spot with $7.8 million to bring its cume to $130.6M.
A month ago it may have seemed a far fetched notion, but a current summer blockbuster begs the question – could Mad Max: Fury Road score a Best Picture nomination come Oscar time? It’s possible. George Miller’s reboot and his fourth directorial effort in the franchise (some 30 years after the last one) has received high critical acclaim and fine box office numbers. Rotten Tomatoes has it at 98% and that’s certainly greater than some other Academy nominated flicks will receive.
The solid argument could be made that it’s precisely movies like Fury Road that caused the Academy to expand its number of Picture nominees in 2009 to anywhere from five to ten. It happened immediately after the enormously grossing and critically lauded Dark Knight failed to make the five picture cut the year prior. Obviously much will depend on what follows in the next six and a half months but don’t count out Max for potential Oscar attention. Same goes for its well regarded auteur Miller.
Even if it doesn’t score a nomination for the top category, it could show up elsewhere. While stars Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron are unlikely to find themselves in the acting mix, don’t be surprised if it lands nominations in the following down ticket races: Production Design, Cinematography, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects.
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