Tag: movies

The Last Witch Hunter Box Office Prediction

Vin Diesel puts the car in park and stars in his first non franchise sequel in over seven years as The Last Witch Hunter hits screens next Friday. The supernatural action pic features Diesel in the title role with Rose Leslie, Elijah Wood, and Michael Caine in the supporting cast.

Other than his voice only role in 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy, Diesel’s screen appearances in the last few years has been limited to the Fast and Furious series and the third entry in the Riddick series. The last time he starred in a franchise hopeful that wasn’t ongoing was 2008’s Babylon A.D., which stumbled with a $9.4 million debut.

Diesel seems confident in Hunter‘s box office appeal and has hinted that a sequel is forthcoming. However, in order for that to occur, this needs to at least come close to reaching its reported $90 million budget. That could be tricky stateside. There’s a lot of competition out there and some supernatural genre fans could turn their attention instead to the latest Paranormal Activity flick, which opens against it.

I’ll predict The Last Witch Hunter manages a gross in the mid teens, which is likely not enough to scare up anticipation for Diesel’s sequel. There’s always Fast 8.

The Last Witch Hunter opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 16-18

It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.

As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.

And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Crimson Peak

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

6. Pan

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)

As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).

Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.

Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.

Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.

That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.

Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Woodlawn Box Office Prediction

This Friday, the faith based sports drama Woodlawn hits screens and it’s the latest in a steady stream of pictures in the genre to roll out. The desegregation football true story features Sean Astin, Jon Voight and Sherri Shepherd and comes from the makers of Moms’ Night Out, which made just $4.2 million in its debut in May 2014.

Woodlawn is slated to premiere on around 1500 screens, a relatively low number. In August of 2014, another Christian themed gridiron drama, When the Game Stands Tall, opened to $8.3 million on over 2600 screens. It would stand to reason that Woodlawn’s gross will be quite a bit lower, due to theater count alone.

Add it all up and I have it opening to just over what Moms’ Night Out earned for a pretty muted start.

Woodlawn opening weekend prediction: $4.3 million

For my Bridge of Spies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Crimson Peak prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

The Blog Turns 3!

I’m going to keep this post short and sweet. Today, my movie blog turns 3 years old!

It’s been great. I’m truly humbled that people take the time to read the thoughts in my head and reviews and box office predictions and anything else I choose to write about. 2015 is already the most viewed year of the blog in its three year history. I’ve said I’d probably write this blog even if people didn’t read it, but it’s better when they do! So thank you.

As for the future, I’m going to keep doing what I’m doing. The blog has evolved as its existence has gone on and I anticipate the same. The reviews and weekly box office predictions and Oscar talk will never cease. Yet who knows what I’ll choose to write about next week? Next year? That’s the fun part.

In a previous post, I referred to a love of movies as The NeverEnding Story. It’s so true. Just in the next three months, there’s a new Bond feature coming. A new Quentin Tarantino effort. A new frickin Star Wars, people!!!

We’ll watch and experience it together I hope and I’m grateful for your eyes reading it.

Crimson Peak Box Office Prediction

Guillermo del Toro has earned his reputation as one of the most visionary directors working today with credits including the Hellboy pics, Pan’s Labyrinth, and Pacific Rim. Next weekend comes his latest effort: the gothic horror tale Crimson Peak, which features Alice in Wonderland star Mia Wasikowska, Tom Hiddleston, Jessica Chastain, and Charlie Hunnam.

The $55 million dollar production isn’t expected to reach the box office numbers of the Hellboy movies or Pacific Rim. It doesn’t help that competition is rather fierce with Bridge of Spies and Goosebumps opening the same day with The Martian in its third weekend. Crimson Peak could get somewhat lost in the shuffle for film goers that aren’t del Toro or horror aficionados. Strong reviews could help (they haven’t yet been released but I wouldn’t be surprised if it earns solid notices), but I still will predict this peaks at mid to high teens for its debut.

Crimson Peak opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million

For my Bridge of Spies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Woodlawn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Goosebumps Box Office Prediction

Based on the well known series of children’s books by R.L. Stine, the family friendly Goosebumps opens in theaters next weekend, hoping to bring in a sizable kid crowd. The film is directed by Rob Letterman and Jack Black, who teamed up in 2010 for Gulliver’s Travels, which failed at the box office to the tune of $42 million.

This time around, they appear to have fairly positive word of mouth on their side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score and a sequel possibly in the works. It also doesn’t hurt that its release date is close to Halloween. Family audiences turned out big time for Hotel Transylvania 2, however, so whether there’s a major clamor for scarily themed entertainment remains to be seen.

I could envision this opening to around the same number that Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day made last October: $18.3 million. I’ll say Goosebumps just tops that for a respectable start and we’ll see how it plays in future weekends.

Goosebumps opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Bridge of Spies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

For my Crimson Peak prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

For my Woodlawn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Bridge of Spies Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, a surefire Oscar hopeful hits the screens as Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies opens. The Cold War era thriller stars Tom Hanks in his fourth collaboration with the famed director. Costars include Mark Rylance, Alan Alda, and Amy Ryan.

The Disney property premiered at the New York Film Festival last weekend and immediately became fodder for Academy Awards talk. Sitting at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes currently, Spies appears to be a strong contender for a Best Picture nod and for Rylance in the Supporting Actor category (critics have really singled him out). Spielberg and Hanks could see their names called as well in Director and Actor.

These adult themed dramas typically don’t have massive openings and tend to play well from weekend to weekend. For comparisons sake, 2012’s Best Picture winner Argo debuted in October to $19.4 million while October 2013’s Captain Phillips featuring Hanks opened with $25.7 million. That seems like a pretty sensible range for where Bridge of Spies will start out. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite reach Phillips gross while slightly outshining Argo.

Bridge of Spies opening weekend prediction: $21.2 million

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Crimson Peak prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

For my Woodlawn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 9-11

October rolls along at the box office as family friendly Pan debuts while The Walk expands and critically approved thriller 99 Homes opens in more limited fashion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Pan and The Walk right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/01/pan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/02/the-walk-box-office-prediction/

Pan has been the subject of many negative reviews and it doesn’t help that Hotel Transylvania 2 should still be playing quite well with its intended audience in weekend #3. That leads me to predict that the Peter Pan story will only manage a third place showing out of the gate. The Walk actually had a fairly disappointing roll out in its limited IMAX release and I have it doing low double digits for a fourth place premiere. 99 Homes with Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon is only opening on approximately 500 screens. It’s flying under the radar and I have it pegged for a gross of $1.8 million, far outside the top five (and maybe even top ten).

As for holdovers, Ridley Scott’s The Martian with Matt Damon blasted off to a terrific debut and word of mouth is strong. I don’t believe its drop will be very big and it should easily repeat at #1, with Hotel Transylvania 2 continuing its impressive haul in the runner up spot. The Intern and Sicario should battle for the five spot.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Pan

Predicted Gross: $17.6 milion

4. The Walk

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

5. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Sicario

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (October 2-4)

As mentioned, The Martian exceeded expectations, capitalizing on stellar reviews for a $54.3 million opening (well beyond my $40.3M estimate). That’s good for the second biggest October premiere of all time, just behind Gravity from 2013. It’s also Matt Damon’s second highest debut after The Bourne Ultimatum. 

Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 held up better than my prognostication with $32.9 million in its sophomore frame, compared to my $26.2M forecast. It’s made $90 million so far.

Border thriller Sicario had a pretty sturdy wide release with $12 million, not quite matching my $13M prediction. Strong reviews helped and it hopes to experience fairly small declines in subsequent weekends.

In its second weekend, The Intern with Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro held up well with $11.6 million compared to my $10.5M estimate and its two week total stands at $36 million.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials was fifth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2M forecast to bring its gross to $63 million. Sixth place belonged to Black Mass with $5.8 million ($52M total). I incorrectly had it outside the top six because I predicted Everest would be in the spot. It was seventh with $5.6 million (below my $7.7M estimate) to brings its underwhelming total to $33 million.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Bridge of Spies

This evening one of the year’s biggest potential Oscar contenders had its first screenings in Hollywood and at the New York Film Festival: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War era espionage thriller Bridge of Spies. From the moment this project was announced, its chance at Academy attention was never in doubt. Spielberg has won two Director awards and been nominated a total of seven times. Nine of his movies have been nominated for the big prize with Schindler’s List being the only winner. Star Tom Hanks has won Actor twice and been nominated on three other occasions. Co-screenwriters Joel and Ethan Coen are Oscar winning directors in their own right whose screenplays for Fargo and No Country for Old Men also nabbed them statues in addition to three other writing nods. So, yeah, Bridge of Spies seemed like a legit contender.

However, up until this evening, no one had seen it. The verdict? Very solid. Early reviews are awfully positive with critics hailing it as an old fashioned yarn with a terrific star turn from Hanks, whose performance has been noted as Jimmy Stewart-esque. On the supporting side, acclaimed stage actor Mark Rylance is getting raves as an alleged Russian spy. Hanks may be the big name, but I think Rylance’s nomination in Supporting Actor is virtually assured. As for Mr. Hanks, nomination #6 could certainly be coming, but I don’t believe it’s a guarantee. After all, he was snubbed for Captain Phillips two years ago and it contains some of the most remarkable work of his storied career. On the other hand, the Actor race seems less competitive than in 2013 so that could assist him greatly.

The screenings buzz puts Bridge right in line for Picture and Director nominations. I predicted it would get a Picture nod in my first round of prognostications and see no reason why it wouldn’t still be included when I do my second round later this week.

Avengers: Age of Ultron Movie Review

Avengers: Age of Ultron moves the Marvel Cinematic Universe onwards while answering the questions we’ve been pondering for years. How is the romantic relationship going between Hulk and Black Widow? What’s going on with Hawkeye’s wife and children out on their family farm?

Wait, what?

These two out of nowhere subplots are emblematic of a pervasive problem with the sequel to the 2012 mega blockbuster. When Joss Whedon made the original three years ago, it was hard to imagine him combining Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, Black Widow and Hawkeye into a cohesive and satisfactory experience. Did he ever though and it resulted in one of the greatest superhero tales to reach the screen. With Ultron, many of the fears that were assuaged the first time are present. Here, the struggle is real and Whedon can’t manage to recapture the magic the second time around.

The pic dives headfirst into Avengers action in Eastern Europe with our protagonists obtaining Loki’s old scepter and Tony Stark (Robert Downey Jr.) discovering its artificial intelligence capabilities. This results in the creation of Ultron (voiced by James Spader), a robotic monster hell bent on ending the world… you know, like all MCU villains. We’re also introduced to Quicksilver (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) and Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen), characters played by different actors in last year’s in X-Men: Days of Future Past. Incidentally, Quicksilver was used much more effectively in the latter.

Of course, we have most of the Marvel crew back. Scarlett Johannson’s Black Widow, who’s turned into one of the more interesting characters even though her aforementioned romance with Dr. Bruce Banner aka Hulk (Mark Ruffalo) seems to be a forced concoction to earn them more screen time. Same goes for Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye, who isn’t one of the more interesting players and his previously unseen family history doesn’t help. And there’s Chris Hemsworth’s Thor and Chris Evans’s Captain America, both coming off sequels that improved upon their predecessors. Not the case here. Samuel L. Jackson’s Nick Fury, Don Cheadle’s War Machine and Anthony Mackie’s Falcon appear in more limited fashion. The girlfriends of Iron Man and Thor (Oscar winners Gwyneth Paltrow and Natalie Portman, respectively) are missing.

Where Ultron serviceably succeeds is its action sequences, including a humdinger battle between Hulk and Iron Man. The Marvel team obviously know how to make these glorious battle sequences and they acquit themselves fine here, though nothing matches the brilliance of the 2012 edition’s breathtaking climactic sequence. The issues I had are several and not just the needless subplots. Ultron is not an especially compelling villain. Many of the humorous quips fall flatter than normal. Even Downey Jr. (truly an example of the perfect actor in the perfect role) isn’t as fun this time around.

In a way, I found Age of Ultron comparable to the third Hunger Games entry, Mockingjay – Part 1. It’s necessary to view it so we can move on to the rest. With the MCU, that includes two more Avengers pics and forthcoming Thor and Captain America threequels. Ultron is “must see” viewing for that reason and that reason alone. Yet I hope what comes next elevates beyond the material we are given this time.

**1/2 (out of four)