A whole different kind of Christmas comedy hits theaters next weekend when Krampus debuts. This ain’t Love the Coopers, folks. Michael Dougherty, known best for his screenplays for superhero pics X2 and Superman Returns, is behind the camera. This isn’t his first holiday themed horror comedy though. He made the Halloween centric cult favorite Trick r Treat years ago.
Krampus focuses on what may be a very bad Santa with a cast featuring Adam Scott, Toni Collette, and David Koechner. The trailers do inspire some hope. Having said that, the first week of December is not fertile ground for new releases as audiences are mostly preoccupied with Thanksgiving leftovers. Additionally, while movie geeks may be looking forward to this, general audiences will probably stay away.
I believe Krampus will be lucky to reach double digits and will predict that it won’t.
We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…
Let’s go!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS in SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Diane Ladd, Joy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Isabella Rossellini, Joy
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Robert De Niro, Joy
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Jacob Tremblay, Room
BEST ACTRESS
Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
BEST ACTOR
Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final cut.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Will Smith, Concussion
BEST DIRECTOR
Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
David O. Russell, Joy
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
BEST PICTURE
I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in and it could fall off.
TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Creed
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
In the Heart of the Sea
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Comption
And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…
One of the huge shoes left to drop in the 2015 Oscar race did so as Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant screened for Academy voters last night. While official reviews are embargoed until next Friday, there was plenty of word that leaked out and it’s given us a general direction on its Oscar prospects.
The verdict? It sounds as if The Revenant is well on its way to a Best Picture and Director nomination. Some watchers loved it while others were more cautious, but its inclusion as a nominee in these big races seems pretty much assured right now.
Furthermore, last evening’s word of mouth indicates an unquestionable nomination for star Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s been nominated four times and never won. The fifth time, in a Best Actor race that is less competitive than in recent year, could finally be the charm. It appears less certain whether or not Tom Hardy will be a player in Supporting Actor, though that should become more clear when reviews are out late next week.
Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki is also being heaped with praise and he could be the first individual to win the race three times in a row (after Gravity and Birdman).
Of course, director Inarritu is the man behind Birdman and he saw that effort win himself an Oscar, as well as the film itself last year. History has a shot of repeating itself this time. And for all the deserved chatter over the years about the craziness of Leo being Oscar-less, it could be well on its way to changing quite soon.
The Turkey Day weekend box office is upon us and we have three new holiday offerings joining the fray: Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur, critically lauded Rocky spinoff Creed, and gothic horror tale Victor Frankenstein. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:
Since the final Hunger Games pic opened to less than expected results (more on that below), I believe Dinosaur should roam to the top of the charts, though it could be somewhat close.
Solid buzz should put Creed solidly in third place, while I expect Frankenstein to struggle a bit in its opening. Holdovers like Spectre, The Peanuts Movie, and The Night Before should experience small declines as is typical over this holiday weekend.
And with that, I’ll do a top seven predictions that includes projections for both the traditional three day weekend and expanded Thanksgiving five day frame:
The Good Dinosaur
Predicted Gross: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
Predicted Gross: $48.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $75.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Creed
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $27.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
4. Spectre
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $17.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $15.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Victor Frankenstein
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
7. The Night Before
Predicted Gross: $8 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (November 20-22)
Katniss and company easily ruled the box office as Mockingjay – Part 2 debuted, but it undeniably came in with less than anticipated numbers. The fourth and final chapter of The Hunger Games franchise made $102.6 million compared to my $124.2M forecast. This is easily the lowest opener of the series and over $50M below the heights of what Catching Fire did two years ago. A nine-digit premiere is always pretty solid, but Lionsgate was likely hoping for a better result than this.
007 was second with Spectre taking in $15 million, on target with my $15.3M forecast. In three weeks, its total stands at $154M.
Snoopy and the gang were third with The Peanuts Movie making $13.2 million, in line with my $14.1M projection. Its three week tally is $99M.
Raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before had a lackluster beginning with just $9.8 million, well below my $16.6M projection. Its best hope is for smallish declines as the holiday it focuses on draws closer.
The weekend’s other newcomer, thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Julia Roberts, settled for fifth with a muted $6.6 million. It did manage to top my $5.1M prediction.
In sixth, another Christmas comedy Love the Coopers made just $3.9 million in its sophomore frame, below my $5.4M guesstimate.
Finally, Oscar hopeful Spotlight expanded its screen count and took in $3.5 million for 8th place. It couldn’t match my $4.7M projection, but did have the second highest per screen average of any film in the top ten after Mockingjay.
The Mission: Impossible franchise has followed one common thread throughout its near two decade existence: star Tom Cruise has allowed the directors to put their unique spin on each entry. Brian De Palma with the original. John Woo with the follow-up. JJ Abrams with part three and Brad Bird with the fourth. That approach is somewhat abandoned in #5, Rogue Nation. New director Christopher McQuarrie seems content to borrow here and there from what we’ve seen before and let the formula stand without a more personalized approach to the material. While that may lead to a small degree of disappointment, don’t be too dismayed. The formula is the formula is the formula and Mr. Cruise has got it under control.
Rogue Nation finds the IMF (Impossible Missions Force) in a dire position as the CIA (headed by a welcome Alec Baldwin) has folded it to their oversight. This doesn’t sit well with super agent Ethan Hunt (Cruise) who’s in the midst of a mission to take down the shadowy Syndicate, an international crime ring. He may not have the support he’s used to stateside, but Ethan does have his usual suspects around. That includes techie Simon Pegg (who shines with the most screen time he’s had in the series thus far), Jeremy Renner’s field ops head, and Luther (Ving Rhames), who always turns up to help his old buddy. The new face is Ilsa (Rebecca Ferguson), an MI6 agent whose allegiance is constantly in question. It is unknown if Ilsa ever worked with James Bond, but let’s assume so for the coolness factor.
If you know those pictures, you know plot is secondary and the grandly conceived action sequences are the real focus. Cruise does his own stunts (as he incessantly loves to remind us) and this finds him jumping on departing aircrafts, having to hold his breath underwater for lengthy periods of time, and showing off his motorcycle skills on twisty roads. Per usual, we hopscotch from Paris to Vienna to London to Morocco. We get those nifty masks we first saw in 1996.
The fifth go round feels familiar but Cruise brings enormous energy to the series he keeps returning to. Renner sort of gets the short shrift (especially compared to Pegg) and it’s the second franchise along with Avengers where he’s not particularly given anything of substance to do. At least we don’t get a boring and out of left field family backstory like we did in Avengers: Age of Ultron. Ferguson is a welcome presence as she gives her British spy her all.
Even though McQuarrie doesn’t give a unique spin on Ethan and company like Bird accomplished last time with Ghost Protocol, the series is such a well oiled machine that the results are still a lot of fun. And it still mostly shines.
One box office story that hasn’t been covered much for this weekend is the expansion of Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, which is steeped in major Oscar buzz. The true story of Boston Globe reporters breaking the Catholic Church priest abuse stories, the pic has received raves from critics (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) and seems a shoo in for a Best Picture nomination (it may win).
With a strong ensemble cast that includes Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Liev Schrieber, John Slattery, Stanley Tucci, and Billy Crudup, Spotlight expands to 598 screens this weekend. That’s not near the number of theaters of its competitors, but this should have the highest per screen average of any film not featuring Jennifer Lawrence and a bow and arrow.
While it probably won’t reach the top five, this should top $4 million in its expansion and settle in for a healthy run during Academy season.
Spotlight opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
Over the last near four years, The Hunger Games franchise begat the true birth of YA novel adapted pictures that have continued with diverging and maze running. Perhaps more importantly, it gave the masses Jennifer Lawrence who’s gone onto quite an impressive career thanks to this series and David O. Russell with Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and the upcoming Joy. It also gave its studio Lionsgate a serious cash cow and that explains the decision to divide the final installment Mockingjay into two parts. They did so because they knew the cash cow was about to graze and last year’s Part 1 felt incomplete. That picture didn’t feel so much as half a film. Instead it often felt unnecessary and slowly paced with filler where they didn’t need to be. Mockingjay – Part 1 was light on action and often too grim, dark, and plodding for its own good.
Some of those same tenets hold true for Part 2 (the first hour drags a bit),but this experience feels much more satisfying and sends the franchise off with competence. We pick up where we left off with Lawrence’s Katniss fervently marching towards the Capitol to kill President Snow (Donald Sutherland, still relishing his villainous role). There is still a love triangle between the brainwashed Peeta (Josh Hutcherson, whose acting here is better than we’ve seen before) and hunky Gale (Liam Hemsworth), though we correctly sense how it will turn out eventually. And Katniss is still being used by District 13’s President Coin (Julianne Moore) for propaganda purposes as her motives are constantly in question. The goals of Katniss are undeniably noble while we’re not so sure about the President she’s working for.
Part 2 ups the adventure quotient and director Francis Lawrence is serviceable at delivering these sequences. One in an abandoned subway system with some freaky looking creatures is particularly well-constructed and suspenseful. Yet the real suspense lurks with what Katniss will do once reaches her nemesis President Snow and whether he really is the baddest of the bad guys.
The dynamic between Katniss, Peeta, and Gale has been a running theme throughout these movies. A common complaint has been the underwhelming acting of Hutcherson that sort of makes you root for Gale more than you should. It’s not a notion I disagree with. Here, however, Peeta’s struggle with the mind tricks Snow heaped upon him adds a fascinating dimension. In one segment, he tells Katniss “You should cuff me…” and he means in the literal restraint form with zero shades of grey.
As for various performances, Lawrence again shows she was meant for this role and brings an emotional heft that elevates the material. Moore, Sutherland, and Woody Harrelson as returning mentor Haymitch are all pros. Philip Seymour Hoffman is here in limited screen time, which is probably due to his tragic death nearly two years ago. There are a couple of scenes where he should obviously be in it. Elizabeth Banks is given a couple scenes as franchise favorite Effie.
For the most part, Mockingjay – Part 2 is about getting down to the business of Katniss exacting her revenge. And that thirst for revenge only grows during the fairly well-paced proceedings taking place here. The body count piles up. The stakes grow higher and everything feels urgent in a way that it didn’t and really couldn’t in Part 1. Having never read the Suzanne Collins books which these Games are adapted from, I don’t know about the complaints I’ve picked up about a disappointing ending for the series. The actions of Katniss in the third act worked for me and the action displayed here is pretty good stuff. If there’s a quibble to be had, it’s that the first two Hunger Games films had more of a sense of humor and there was fun to be had. The original actually felt rather fresh and 2013’s Catching Fire brought the series to a creative high. It stands as easily as the finest picture of the quartet. The final two are considerably bleaker in tone, but word is that faithfully follows what Collins brought her readers. As I wrote in my review of Part 1, there’s no actual “hunger games” happening anymore in these last two entries. Thankfully, Part 2 concludes The Hunger Games franchise in a mostly sufficient manner.
Professor X and Harry Potter in a Frankenstein movie? Sounds like an intriguing proposition as Victor Frankenstein opens over the Thanksgiving holiday. Yet serious competition could keep this concoction (with its reported $90 million budget) from solid earnings.
James McAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe star in the gothic horror flick from director Paul McGuigan, known primarily for TV work on “Sherlock” and “Scandal”, among others. As mentioned, the biggest stumbling block could be adult competition in the form of The Hunger Games and critically acclaimed Creed.
Radcliffe has done this genre before to positive results as his 2012 pic The Woman in Black debuted to $20 million. However, this was right on the heels of his massive Potter success and it opened in a much less competitive frame. One thought is simply having “Frankenstein” in the title might help a bit, but it didn’t mean much for last year’s I, Frankenstein, which made just $8.6 million for its start.
With a lack of any real buzz going for it, I’ll predict Victor Frankenstein is mostly scared away by the box office fire generated by its competitors.
Victor Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
With the best reviews of the Rocky franchise since the Oscar winning original nearly forty years ago, Creed enters the box office ring over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. It hopes to ride some seriously positive buzz to impressive numbers and it may well succeed.
Sylvester Stallone reprises his role as Rocky Balboa for the seventh time. Yet this time, Stallone has handed over the directorial duties to Fruitvale Station‘s Ryan Coogler and that film’s star Michael B. Jordan stars in the role of Apollo Creed’s son trying to make his way to boxing glory. He’s mentored by Stallone iconic Balboa, who’s earned Academy Awards buzz for his performance. It would mark his second nomination and it would be for playing the same role when he was nominated in 1976 for the first Rocky.
Reviews have been strong as Creed currently stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. My feeling is that strong word of mouth should propel this to a healthy Turkey weekend debut and it could subsequently hold up well in further frames.
Creed opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $27.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Since 2008, the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has continually exceeded expectations with the product they’ve put out. This was true no more so than in 2008 with the first entry Iron Man, which turned a superhero considered on the B list to A level material. The casting of one Robert Downey Jr. certainly helped. It held true in 2014 when Guardians of the Galaxy, considered the studio’s biggest risk to date, was a comedically charged thrill ride that turned Chris Pratt into a superstar.
We arrive at Ant-Man, directed by Peyton Reed, with some of the same skepticism that surrounded those pictures. This time expectations are not necessarily exceeded. They are merely mostly met and the choice to cast the supremely talented Paul Rudd in the title role doesn’t pay off as much as hoped for.
Rudd is Scott Lang, an expert burglar and safecracker who just got out of prison for some Robin Hood like corporate thefts. His felon status can’t get him a steady job and this estranges him from his beloved little daughter. He reluctantly accepts a theft job “one last time” but all it yields is a strange looking outfit that he believes to be motorcycle gear. It turns out the suit belongs to former S.H.I.E.L.D. scientist Hank Pym (Michael Douglas), who purposely had him lift it. Scott learns the suit is that of the Ant-Man and it has the ability to shrink him to a tiny size. This breakthrough technology was discovered by Pym, who has kept it secret for many years because of the potential danger it could wreak. Pym’s daughter Hope (Evangeline Lilly) works at Pym’s old company along with his former colleague Cross (Corey Stoll). It’s Cross who wishes to use the scientific breakthrough for nefarious warfare purposes and Pym enlists Scott (someone expendable with nothing to lose) to make sure he can’t.
This entails the Ant-Man to learn how to be the Ant-Man and that means getting to work with the actual insects who become his team. It means a number of super cool visual effects as he shrinks to minuscule size. A bathtub being drawn is The Perfect Storm to our hero. And as we also see in the MCU now, they are references to what’s occurred in other films and we get some Avengers exposure, however limited.
As with Iron Man and Thor and Captain America and the Guardians of Marvel’s past, this is the obligatory and needed origin story. The doubts that were expressed upon the film’s announcement centered on whether Ant-Man was a strong enough character to base a movie and hoped for franchise on. I can say the jury, for me, is still deliberating.
Ant-Man is not a straight out comedy yet dabbles into that genre in the same manner Guardians did. The latter did it better. Rudd is a gifted comedic and dramatic performer as we’ve seen time and again yet he never quite makes the instantly gratifying impression that Downey’s Tony Stark or Pratt’s Star Lord did. Douglas seems to be the one actually having the most fun. Lilly isn’t given a whole lot to work with other than her daddy/daughter issues with Pym. Stoll is a serviceable villain at best. Scott’s team of thieving buddies that include Michael Pena and T.I. are given a couple humorous bits.
The whole affair seems to pick up steam in the third act, especially with a delightfully amusing climactic train sequence. Ant-Man is not on the grand scale of what we typically expect from the MCU and that’s ok. Often, however, it can mean its thrills feel minimized. One also wonders how interesting this material may have been had its original director, the highly creative Edgar Wright, not dropped out due to reported creative differences. Having said that, here’s to hoping this sometimes workmanlike production will improve with its sequel like the Captain America and Thor franchises did.
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