Thunderbolts* looks to light up the box office as it officially kicks off the summer season on May 2nd. Like many recent cinematic summers, the MCU has the first tentpole and it’s the franchise’s 36th flick in 17 years. Jake Schreier directs the mashup of Marvel heroes with a cast including Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Wyatt Russell, Olga Kurylenko, Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan, David Harbour, Hannah John-Kamen, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
The MCU ruled the 2024 season with Deadpool & Wolverine with its $211 million premiere and $636 million overall domestic haul. Thunderbolts* might be looking at roughly a third of that debut out of the gate. February predecessor Captain America: Brave New World rolled out with $88 million and familiarity with its title character might make its number unattainable for this new crew.
That said the early buzz is stronger than what World experienced so I believe high 70s or low 80s is certainly attainable.
Thunderbolts* opening weekend prediction: $79.3 million
Disney looks to squeeze more bucks out of a blue chip franchise with the 20th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith. It is the culmination of the oft criticized second trilogy in the vaunted franchise and this is generally considered the strongest of the three. Marking the last picture directed by series creator George Lucas, this one-week engagement could manage to bring the faithful and more out.
Last May, Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace was put back into multiplexes for its 25th anniversary. Results were better than anticipated with an $8.7 million debut. The second installment – Attack of the Clones – is not being granted a theatrical comeback. Pre-sales for Sith are quite encouraging and suggest this could double the Phantom figures. I’ll predict this gets past $20 million for what could be anywhere from a second to fourth place premiere.
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
Blogger’s Update (04/23): I am now factoring in the re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith and projecting a third place showing with $20M+. I am also lowering my The Account 2 estimate from $28.6 million to $24.3 million.
The Accountant 2 with Ben Affleck looks to challenge the second weekend of Sinners for box office supremacy while horror pic Until Dawn also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Over Easter weekend, I predicted a close race between A Minecraft Movie and Sinners with the former coming out on top. I underestimated Sinners (more on that below) and it toppled Minecraft. This time it could be a photo finish between Sinners and The Accountant 2.
My high 20s projection for Affleck’s action thriller sequel could be enough for #1. However, due to its A Cinemascore grade and sizzling reviews, I’m thinking Sinners only dips in the mid 30s and that could give it north of $30 million for a repeat performance on top.
A mid 40s drop would give Minecraft $20M+ and third place. The battle for fifth could be interesting. While faith-based The King of Kings held even better than I figured over the holiday, the third weekend slide should be heftier in the mid 50s. That could still leave it in fourth as I have little faith in Until Dawn.
Here’s how I have the high six playing out:
1. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $33.1 million
2. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $24.3 million
3. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith re-release
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
4. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
5. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. Until Dawn
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (April 18-20)
It was a smoking Easter frame for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners with the best debut for an original picture since Jordan Peele’s Us from 2019. As mentioned, glowing reviews helped build buzz to a $48 million start. That tops my $44.8 million forecast and the Michael B. Jordan vampire saga looks to hold up well based on that word-of-mouth (in addition to being a likely awards contender).
After two weeks atop the charts, A Minecraft Movie slipped to second with $40.4 million (not matching my $46.1 million estimate). Nevertheless Warner Bros was able to claim legit bragging rights with Sinners and this each exceeding expectations. The three-week total is $343 million.
The King of Kings eased a scant 9% for third with $17.5 million, rising above my $12.7 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $45 million.
The Amateur was fourth with $7 million and I went a bit higher at $8.6 million. The Rami Malek spy flick stands at $27 million after two weekends.
Finally, Warfare rounded out the top five with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) for $17 million total in its second outing.
A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.
Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).
Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.
You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).
This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.
With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. The Rivals of Amziah King
7. Hamnet
8. Jay Kelly
9. The Life of Chuck
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another
12. Frankenstein
13. Bugonia
14. Deliver Me from Nowhere
15. The Smashing Machine
16. No Other Choice
17. The Ballad of a Small Player
18. Michael
19. Die, My Love
20. Highest 2 Lowest
21. Kiss of the Spider Woman
22. F1
23. Is This Thing On?
24. Ann Lee
25. Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere
14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead
15. Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player
10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
12. Emily Watson, Hamnet
13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
14. Nia Long, Michael
15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.
Mixing concert footage with the political upheaval that mark its early 70s timeline, One to One: John & Yoko opened in IMAX venues last weekend and is now on traditional screens. Kevin Macdonald, who made the Academy Award winning doc One Day in September and directed Forest Whitaker to a Best Actor Oscar for The Last King of Scotland, is behind the camera along with Sam Rice-Edwards.
The latest real-life exploration of John Lennon and Yoko Ono’s union hit the fest circuit last year in Venice and Telluride. Critics were generally pleased with 78% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic. However, those ratings likely aren’t effusive enough to imagine this contending for Documentary Feature next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After venturing into superhero territory with Shazam! and its sequel, David F. Sandberg reenters horror territory with Until Dawn on April 25th. Inspired by the 2015 PlayStation game, Ella Rubin, Michael Cimino (not the late Deer Hunter and Heaven’s Gate director), Odessa A’Zion, Ji-young Yoo, Belmont Cameli, and Peter Stormare star.
This survival scare fest from the filmmaker behind Lights Out and Annabelle: Creation is a test of Sony’s marketing muscle. The PS game did well and that could bleed over to cinematic sales. However, reaction to the trailer has been rather weak. Unless I’m grossly underestimating the draw of its source material, this may fail to reach $10 million.
Until Dawn opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
David Cronenberg’s body horror thriller The Shrouds is out on the coasts today before an expansion next weekend. Vincent Cassel, Diane Kruger, Guy Pearce, and Sandrine Holt star in the Canadian filmmaker’s latest which played at Cannes and Toronto last year.
In the mid 2010s, the director had a minor awards run when 2005’s A History of Violence received Oscar nods for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Adapted Screenplay and Viggo Mortensen was up for lead Actor in 2007’s Eastern Promises. In recent years, Cronenberg projects Cosmopolis, Maps to the Stars, and Crimes of the Future have not been in the conversation.
That should hold true for The Shrouds as well with its 69% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 59 on Metacritic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are a month and change removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my takes for the four acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 97th ceremony back in April of 2024, I correctly named two of the eventual ten nominees in Conclave and Dune: Part Two. Three others – Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, and Wicked – were listed in Other Possibilities. Five other contenders – winner Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, I’m Still Here, and The Substance – were not yet on my radar screen.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system much like Anora, Pérez, The Substance, and The Brutalist last time around.
This premiere post predicts part two of Wicked and part 3 of Avatar among the ten hopefuls as well as last year’s Toronto Film Festival People Choice’s winner The Life of Chuck. Unlike most prognosticators, I currently have Paul Thomas Anderson’s high profile One Battle After Another on the outside looking in. And while I don’t have Sinners in my ten, the 99% RT rating is really making me wonder. I came close to including it.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Ben Affleck hopes to generate big box office numbers with The Accountant 2 on April 25th. Arriving eight and a half years after its predecessor, Gavin O’Connor returns to direct the action thriller with Jon Bernthal, Cynthia Addai-Robinson, Daniella Pineda, and J.K. Simmons in support.
First screened at South by Southwest last month, the sequel is drawing more complimentary reactions than the 2016 original. The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic ratings are 85% and 61 respectively compared to part 1’s 53% and 51.
Even with so-so reviews, The Accountant exceeded expectations with a $24 million opening and $86 million eventual domestic take. With several years to play on the basic cable circuit, anticipation for the sequel could mean a higher debut. However, there’s lots of competition so I’m projecting this post similar results.
The Accountant 2 opening weekend prediction: $24.3 million
Sinners, which reunites Michael B. Jordan with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler, looks for a strong Easter weekend showing at multiplexes. Seeking to challenge A Minecraft Movie for the top spot, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the vampire flick here:
It could be a real photo finish for the #1 slot. Sinners is holding at a remarkable 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that should help build buzz. My mid 40s projection might equal box office supremacy.
Yet I have Minecraft barely managing bragging rights with a low 40s percent ease for a third week in first. The separation is less than $1.5 million between the leaders.
Holdovers in their sophomore frames should populate the rest of the top five via The King of Kings, The Amateur, and Warfare.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $46.1 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $44.8 million
3. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. The Amateur
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Warfare
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (April 11-13)
A Minecraft Movie mastered the charts once again with $78.5 million, on pace with my $77.9 million call. The video game based smash has amassed $278 million in just two weeks of release.
Five newcomers filled the next spots with animated The King of Kings from Angel Studios outpacing its competitors. With an A+ Cinemascore, it was runner-up with $19.3 million. That’s falling shy of my $21.4 million estimate, but it’s still a terrific result.
The Amateur with Rami Malek was third with $14.8 million. That’s at the top of the anticipated range for the spy thriller and outdoes my $11.9 million prediction.
Warfare from Alex Garland and Iraq War vet Ray Mendoza managed fourth with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.5 million projection.
Blumhouse thriller Drop was fifth with a meh $7.3 million. I was close at $7.6 million. The B Cinemascore is decent for its genre though I’d look for this to fade quickly.
Finally, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 took sixth with $6 million, I was a tad lower at $5.5 million.
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