Zooming into theaters next weekend is Ford v Ferrari, which recounts the 1966 24 Hours of Le Mans race in the mid 1960s. James Mangold, taking a break from Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine spinoffs, directs. Matt Damon and Christian Bale lead the cast that includes Jon Bernthal, Caitriona Balfe, Tracy Letts, Josh Lucas, and Noah Jupe.
Ford hit the film festival circuit a couple months back to solid reviews (88% on Rotten Tomatoes) and buzz that it could nab a Best Picture nod. It’s said to be an audience pleaser and it should have an edge over Charlie’s Angels, another high profile pic opening against it.
That said, I do believe some of the $30 million plus forecasts out there are a bit rosy. I keep thinking of Ron Howard’s 2013 Rush, which covered similar subject matter. It also had fine reviews, but sputtered with just a $10 million wide premiere. Make no mistake – this has more star power and looks destined to at least double that gross.
I’ll say mid 20s is where this lands as it hopes to keep adult audiences coming in later weekends (especially if the awards talk comes to fruition).
Ford v Ferrari opening weekend prediction: $24.4 million
It’s a busy weekend at the box office as four new titles enter the marketplace: Shining sequel Doctor Sleep, Paul Feig directed rom com Last Christmas, Roland Emmerich made WWII action pic Midway, and John Cena led family comedy Playing with Fire. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:
Barring a rather major over performance from Christmas, the #1 spot this weekend should go to Doctor Sleep. I’m putting right in its expected range of mid 20s. Reviews are solid though not spectacular and the horror pic may have trouble finding the youth audience that the genre typically depends on. The crowd is likely to skew a bit older due to the classic 1980 Kubrick film it’s following.
There is certainly a shot that Christmas celebrates a higher start than my mid teens projection, but the best hope could be for small drops in the weekends ahead.
Those two newbies seemed destined to hold the 1-2 positions as Terminator: Dark Fate had a dim start last weekend. While I don’t see it dropping in the plus 60s range like Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Men in Black International did over the summer, a mid 50s fall is feasible. That could put it in a close race for third with Midway in the low teens.
Harriet came in on the plus side of its expectations and I foresee a dip in the low to mid 30s. That could put it close to where I expect final newcomer Fire to hit and where the Maleficent: Mistress of Evil earnings are.
With all this activity, let’s expand that top five to eight, shall we?
1. Doctor Sleep
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million
2. Last Christmas
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
3. Terminator: Dark Fate
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Midway
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. Joker
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
6. Playing with Fire
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
7. Harriet
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
8. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
Box Office Results (November 1-3)
The reunification of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Linda Hamilton hit #1 as expected, but its premiere was a major disappointment. Dark Fate took in $29 million, well below forecasts (including my $38.1 million take). While that doesn’t quite mark the previous franchise low of 2015’s Genisys at $27 million (which actually hit low 40s in a five-day holiday rollout), it’s clear that the fate of this will be as a big financial loser domestically.
Joker was second with $13.5 million, a touch more than my $12.2 million prediction. Its total is an incredible $299 million.
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was close behind in third with $13 million, reaching beyond my $10.2 million projection for an $85 million tally.
As mentioned, Harriet hit its mark (and might have saved Cynthia Erivo’s Oscar chances) with $11.6 million. I was lower at $8.2 million. Look for this to have smallish declines as it achieved an A+ Cinemascore grade.
The Addams Family rounded out the top five at $8.2 million (I said $7 million) for a snappy haul of $85 million.
The weekend’s other newbies both struggled at the bottom of the top ten. Motherless Brooklyn was ninth at just $3.5 million, in line with my $3.2 million prediction. The animated Arctic Dogs was a bad, bad performer in tenth with $2.9 million (less than my $4.5 million projection).
Yes, there’s an apt comparison to be made between Good Boys and 2007’s Superbad. This is kind of the middle school version of that movie from over a decade ago. Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg wrote the latter and they serve as producers here. Both involve young boys with their dirty minds trying to make it to a party that they view as potentially life changing (all events are greatly elevated in status at these ages).
What both get right is portraying the naïveté of their central characters. They may talk a good game in their minds, but there’s a whole lot about sex and drugs that they simply don’t understand yet. There’s inherent humor in that. Plenty of raunchy youth comedies are simply in it for the gross out humor. Another layer exists here and it’s one of sweetness to occasionally balance out the R rated aspects.
Max (Jacob Tremblay), Lucas (Keith L. Williams), and Thor (Brady Noon) have just entered the wild world of middle school. Their curiosity level when it comes to girls, beer, and after school get togethers is in peak form. They christen themselves The Beanbag Boys since a good chunk of their lives are spent playing games and conversing while sitting on them. Max has a crush on a fellow student and might have an opportunity to make his move at a party that the cool kids invite him to. Thor is more interested in excelling at the school musical (an ill conceived pint size rendering of Rock of Ages), but struggles with that since the cool kids don’t think that’s cool. Lucas has a happy life that’s disrupted by parental divorce. He’s unlikely to ever be the cool kid and doesn’t quite know that yet.
The boys friendship is tested over a long day where they skip school, steal Max’s dad’s fancy drone, and turn into amateur ecstasy dealers so they don’t get in deeper trouble (it all makes sense in context). The laugh ratio here is pretty high as the trio must learn about kissing (the porn sites they go don’t help much) and dealing with college kids to score drugs.
Tremblay is the famous kid of the bunch as he’s known for his impressive serious work in Room and Wonder. He gets to drop some F bombs for the first time and he looks precocious doing it. I would say it’s Williams, however, that shines the brightest. The couple scenes with his splitting parents are comedic highlights. They display what makes Good Boys work best. It’s funny, but with an undertone of these kids learning the real world for the first time. Like Superbad, the central figures come to discover life will exist beyond their childhood friendships. It takes plenty of crass jokes to get them there, but those gags work more often than they don’t.
When it was released nearly 40 years ago in theaters, Stanley Kubrick’s The Shining was not considered the landmark horror classic that it is today. In fact, the film received zero Oscar nominations. It did score two Razzie nods. That ceremony celebrates the worst in moviemaking each year. Both Kubrick and Shelley Duvall as the terrified wife of Jack Nicholson’s Jack Torrance were singled out for their (apparently) subpar work.
That seems hard to fathom these days with its standing as one of the genre’s best. This weekend comes Doctor Sleep, the sequel to both Stephen King’s 1977 novel and Kubrick’s picture. Reviews are mostly solid, but not across the board and the Rotten Tomatoes score is at 78%.
Truth be told, Sleep was never expected to be an awards player and reaction so far hasn’t done anything to alter that. There is one potential, if unlikely, exception. Critical buzz has heaped praise on the supporting work of Rebecca Ferguson, who’s said to steal the show as a cult leader with psychic powers.
A performance being recognized in the horror space is quite rare. Just last year, there were numerous calls for Toni Collette to get Best Actress attention in Hereditary. It never happened. Ferguson absolutely needs critics groups to bestow her with wins in order to get anywhere on Academy voters radar. If that occurs, she may have a small shot. If so, she would be the sixth performer Oscar nominated from a King adaptation: Sissy Spacek and Piper Laurie in Carrie, Kathy Bates (who won for Misery), Morgan Freeman for The Shawshank Redemption, and Michael Clarke Duncan in The Green Mile.
Bottom line: Ferguson needs a whole lot of outside help to be a factor in the Supporting Actress derby and I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
John Cena follows the career path of fellow grappler Dwayne Johnson with the release of Playing with Fire next weekend. The family comedy casts him as a firefighter caring for rambunctious kids along with his coworkers. Andy Fickman directs and the cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, John Leguizamo, Brianna Hildebrand, Dennis Haysbert, and Judy Greer.
The Paramount release is essentially taking the studio’s Instant Family slot from last year. That pic scored a fairly decent $14.7 million for its start and legged out to a $67 million domestic gross. Cena hasn’t proven himself to be a player in this genre, however, and I’d say Mark Wahlberg’s star power is a bit brighter.
The best hope for Fire is that it develops small dips in subsequent weekends if word of mouth is solid, but I believe it’ll be fortunate to reach double digits in its premiere.
Playing with Fire opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
Known for his mega budget disaster flicks such as Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow, director Roland Emmerich tries his hand at a World War II epic next weekend with Midway. Budgeted at $75 million (pretty low considering the reported $165 million price tag for his 2016 dud sequel Independence Day: Resurgence), the cast includes Ed Skrein, Patrick Wilson, Luke Evans, Aaron Eckhart, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Dennis Quaid, and Woody Harrelson.
I do not expect this to be Emmerich’s Saving Private Ryan or Dunkirk. Those WWII efforts had critical acclaim and Oscar buzz. This does not. There will be competition for the adult and action crowd with the debut of Doctor Sleep and second frame for Terminator: Dark Fate.
IMAX elevated pricing could help a bit, but I doubt it. My suspicion is that Midway posts middling to poor numbers in the low teens for an inauspicious start.
The Yuletide rom com Last Christmas presents itself in theaters next weekend from Bridesmaids director Paul Feig. If you’re hoping it features the classic Wham! holiday track in its soundtrack, you’re in luck as it plays (as well as some unreleased songs by the late lead singer George Michael). Game of Thrones star Emilia Clarke and Henry Golding of Crazy Rich Asians fame headline. Costars include Golding’s Rich mother Michelle Yeoh and Emma Thompson (who co-wrote the script).
While its two leads don’t really have a track record opening a film, this should succeed in bringing in a female audience (and perhaps some fans of Mr. Michael). Even though the genres are different, this could premiere with similar numbers to Feig’s previous effort A Simple Favor ($16.1 million).
I’ll say that range is likely as Christmas hopes to leg out solidly in the weeks ahead.
Last Christmas opening weekend prediction: $16.9 million
Doctor Sleep hopes to shine at the box office next weekend. The horror pic is not just an adaptation of Stephen King’s 2013 novel, which is the legendary author’s sequel to his 1977 work The Shining. It also serves as a follow-up to Stanley Kubrick’s 1980 classic. Mike Flanagan, who’s adapted King before with Netflix’s Gerald’s Game, is behind the camera. Ewan McGregor stars as Dan Torrance, the adult version of the child that Jack Nicholson tormented almost 40 years ago. Costars include Rebecca Ferguson, Kyliegh Curran, Carl Lumbly, Bruce Greenwood, and Cliff Curtis.
There’s no doubt that the cinematic version of The Shining has cemented its status as a genre landmark (even though King himself is famously not a big fan). The author has praised this and early word of mouth based off screenings is positive.
That said, 39 years is a long time ago. Interestingly, there’s a comp to be considered with 2017’s Blade Runner 2049. That sequel was also following an early 80s picture with a sterling reputation. Yet it came in well below expectations with a $31.5 million domestic premiere. Horror viewers tend to skew young, so it’s a legitimate question as to their affinity for the 1980 predecessor.
With all that considered, I’ll predict the Doctor is good for a mid 20s showing. This might be appointment viewing for some, but I’m skeptical it reaches over $30 million.
Doctor Sleep opening weekend prediction: $24.8 million
Since 2016, the NBC drama This Is Us has kept viewers in a perpetual state of tears and it’s been a massive hit for the network. As the show’s popularity has continued, the various leads on the family affair have seen their movie offers increase.
When looking at how Oscar voters could reward the work of these actors that have garnered plenty of Emmy nods, there’s some we can quickly discount. Don’t look for Milo Ventimiglia to contend for The Art of Racing in the Rain. His onscreen wife Mandy Moore won’t get supporting actress attention for next weekend’s Midway. Justin Hartley will not be feted for Little or Jexi. And while A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood could see Tom Hanks receive another nomination, the same won’t hold true for Susan Kelechi Watson.
That brings us to Watson’s TV hubby Sterling K. Brown. His big screen family drama Waves has gotten raves on the film festival circuit. It would appear his performance is most likely to appear on the radar of the awards crowd. Yet there’s a problem. 2019’s crop of supporting actor possibilities is packed. The list includes the aforementioned Hanks in Neighborhood, Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, both Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for The Irishman, Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes, Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse, and Jamie Foxx for Just Mercy. The race simply might be too crowded for Brown.
Surprisingly, the best chance for an Us thespian to get into the Academy derby might come in an unexpected category. This spring’s faith based release Breakthrough featured Chrissy Metz in the cast. Her acting will not be honored. However, Metz did cut an original song for the soundtrack titled “I’m Standing With You”. The songwriter is Diane Warren and she’s no stranger to Oscar. Warren has landed ten nods for her work, including songs from the last two years – “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall and “I’ll Fight” from RBG. The Best Original Song race is still uncertain, but Disney appears bound to get in with expected selections from Toy Story 4, Frozen II, Aladdin, and The Lion King. There’s also tracks from Rocketman and Cats that could factor in. Still, Metz’s pipes probably have the highest chance for recognition over the acting skills of her fellow cast members.
The November box office kicks off with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s signature character back in theaters and three other newcomers vying for attention. In addition to Terminator: Dark Fate, we have the historical biopic Harriet, animated comedy Arctic Dogs, and Edward Norton’s period piece crime drama Motherless Brooklyn. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit that I don’t expect to place in the top five. Dogs comes from the upstart Entertainment Studios, which has no track record with family fare. My $4.5 million forecast reflects its lack of visibility among kiddos and their parents. Brooklyn was looked at as a potential awards contender before festival screenings and its mixed reaction killed that notion. Premiering in a smallish 1250 theaters, I’m projecting a meager $3.2 million.
There is little doubt that Dark Fate (reuniting the former California Governor with his Terminator 2: Judgment Day costars Linda Hamilton and Edward Furlong) will top the charts, but its range of possibility is the real question mark. My high 30s estimate gives it a so-so start that outdoes 2015 predecessor Genisys.
It was a photo finish last weekend between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker. However, even though Arnold serves as more direct competition for the latter, I expect Joker will experience a lower decline than Evil and maintain its #2 standing for the third frame in a row.
Like Brooklyn, Harriet also lost its hoped for Oscar luster once reviews came out. My mid single digits projection gives it a slight edge in fourth over The Addams Family.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Terminator: Dark Fate
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
2. Joker
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. Harriet
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
5. The Addams Family
Predicted Gross: $7 million
Box Office Results (October 25-27)
It doesn’t get much closer than this as Disney edged out Warner Bros for supremacy with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil clinging to #1 at $19.3 million, just under my $20.4 million prediction. The underperforming sequel stands at $66 million.
The supremely over performing Joker was second with $19.2 million, just over my $18.6 million projection for a tally of $277 million.
The Addams Family held up well and placed third with $12 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $73 million.
Just behind in fourth and dropping hard in weekend #2 was Zombieland: Double Tap with $11.8 million. I went higher at $13.8 million. The two week earnings are $47 million.
The weekend’s highest newcomer was horror pic Countdown, rounding out the top five with $8.8 million (not hitting my $10.3 million take).
Black and Blue was sixth, premiering with $8.3 million. I didn’t give it enough credit with my $4.8 million estimate.
Finally, the long delayed The Current War was ninth with a dim $2.6 million. It did manage to build upon my $1.7 million projection.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… I’ll be back!
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