Tag: movies

Oscars 2019: The Case of Brad Pitt

My Case of posts for Oscar nominees hits our final nominee in Best Supporting Actor – Brad Pitt for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood:

The Case for Brad Pitt

One decade after Inglourious Basterds, his first collaboration with Tarantino, Pitt is in the Oscar mix for the fourth time. For his acting that is. His first nod came nearly a quarter century ago in this category for 12 Monkeys and that was followed up by two lead nominations for 2008’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and 2011’s Moneyball. While he is 0 for 3 in the performance department, he does possess an Oscar as a producer on 2013’s Best Picture recipient 12 Years a Slave. It would appear the fourth time is the charm. Pitt has picked up all the significant precursors, including SAG, the Globes, BAFTA, and the Critics Choice. All other nominees here are heavyweights, but Pitt has been the favorite for some time. To add to that, his acceptance speeches over the past few weeks have been wildly entertaining.

The Case Against Brad Pitt

Quite frankly… I’m struggling. He is simply the massive front runner. That said, there have been upsets in recent history in Supporting Actor, including Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) over Sylvester Stallone (Creed) in 2015.

The Verdict

Expect Pitt’s star quality and self deprecation to be on full display when his name is called on Sunday evening.

My Case of posts will continue with Margot Robbie in Bombshell!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Martin Scorsese

My Case of posts for Oscar nominees now focuses on the fourth director profiled – Martin Scorsese for The Irishman:

The Case for Martin Scorsese

One of the most acclaimed filmmakers in cinematic history, Scorsese’s epic Netflix gangster drama marks his ninth nomination for Best Director. Previous nods were for Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, GoodFellas, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo, and The Wolf of Wall Street. If you’re wondering why Taxi Driver isn’t among the pictures included, so am I. His only victory came for The Departed and there’s  a feeling that Oscar voters have snubbed him in the past. The Irishman pulled in 10 nominations, which is tied for second with 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. 

The Case Against Martin Scorsese

The Irishman has gone from a Best Picture front runner to a serious long shot. This is thanks mostly to 1917 and Parasite. Therefore the Best Director derby is now seen as a battle between Sam Mendes and Bong Joon-Ho.

The Verdict

Scorsese’s win total will almost certainly be 1/9 after Sunday night as his movie’s hopes have faded in this and other categories.

My Case of posts will continue with Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Renee Zellweger

My Case of posts for thespians competing for Oscars comes to our final Best Actress nominee – Renee Zellweger in Judy:

The Case for Renee Zellweger

She’s one of the comeback stories of the year and in the strong front runner position for this award. This is Zellweger’s fourth nomination, but it’s been awhile. The actress failed to achieve gold for her first two mentions with Bridget Jones’s Diary and Chicago, but the third time was the charm in Supporting Actress with 2003’s Cold Mountain. Her role as Judy Garland has already earned her the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice honors.

The Case Against Renee Zellweger

The film itself drew a mixed reaction from critics. Challengers to Zellweger could point to last year when Glenn Close (The Wife) picked up the same precursors, but was upset on Oscar night by Olivia Colman for The Favourite. 

The Verdict

There are some who feel Zellweger could be vulnerable to an upset by either Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) or Charlize Theron (Bombshell). However, there’s no doubt that the smart money is on her to win 16 years after her initial podium trip.

My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Martin Scorsese in The Irishman!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Jonathan Pryce

My Case of posts for Oscar hopefuls brings us to the final contender in Best Actor – Jonathan Pryce in the Fernando Meirelles directed Netflix drama The Two Popes:

The Case for Jonathan Pryce

He’s been a well-respected theater actor (with two Tonys to his credit) and cinematic supporting player for decades. From his breakout role in Terry Gilliam’s Brazil to roles in Glengarry Glen Ross, Evita, the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, and last year’s The Wife, his portrayal of the about to be Pope Francis has finally put him on the Academy’s radar screen at age 72. Both he and his costar Anthony Hopkins made the cut in their respective races.

The Case Against Jonathan Pryce

In an incredibly crowded Best Actor field, it was highly questionable whether Pryce would make it in. He missed out on a SAG nod and the film itself couldn’t nab Picture or Director recognition at the Oscars.

The Verdict

Joaquin Phoenix has sucked up all the oxygen in this category and that’s left Pryce and others in the “it’s an honor to be nominated” camp.

My Case of posts will continue with Renee Zellweger in Judy!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Todd Phillips

My third writeup for my Case of posts for directors nominated comes to Todd Phillips for Joker:

The Case for Todd Phillips

He’s been a highly successful comedic filmmaker for years with hits like Old School and The Hangover series. Phillips went in a decidedly darker direction with Joker, which earned over a billion dollars worldwide, has put Joaquin Phoenix in the front runner position for Best Actor, and led all movies at the Oscars with 11 nominations.

The Case Against Todd Phillips

Phillips is the only nominee among the five who missed out on DGA inclusion. That fact alone is a huge case against point. While Joker did get the most nods, it’s seen as a long shot in every race that isn’t Actor or Score.

The Verdict

The win here for Phillips is the nomination itself as Bong Joon-Ho and Sam Mendes are expected to duke it out for the prize.

My Case of posts will continue with Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Florence Pugh

Florence Pugh’s Supporting Actress nod in Greta Gerwig’s Little Women is next up in my Case of posts!

The Case for Florence Pugh

The actress broke out in a major way in 2019 with well-reviewed roles in the wrestling dramedy Fighting with My Family, Ari Aster’s horror pic Midsommar, and in this latest iteration of Louisa May Alcott’s classic novel. Even though Saoirse Ronan is nominated for Best Actress, it was Pugh who got a lions share of critical attention. Pugh’s ascendance into the mainstream will blossom even more in 2020 with a prominent role alongside fellow Supporting Actress nominee Scarlett Johansson in the MCU’s Black Widow. If the Academy wants to pick a young upstart, this is the way to go.

The Case Against Florence Pugh

She missed out on both Golden Globe and SAG nods and that’s never a solid sign. Laura Dern, her Little Women costar, is the massive front runner for Marriage Story. 

The Verdict

A solid 2019 for Pugh culminated in this nomination. It won’t end in a win.

My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Todd Phillips for Joker!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Joe Pesci

My Case of posts for the performers up for Oscars this Sunday arrives at Joe Pesci and his Supporting Actor work for Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman:

The Case for Joe Pesci

Well, it’s certainly a comeback role that garnered lots of attention. In 1990, Pesci won this category for GoodFellas, his second collaboration with Scorsese after Raging Bull. This kicked off a fruitful decade for the actor that included JFK, My Cousin Vinny, Casino, and, of course, the Home Alone franchise. Then he essentially disappeared. Pesci’s performance in The Irishman was not only a welcome sight since he’d be offscreen for so long, but it was surprising for the subtlety in which he played it.

The Case Against Joe Pesci

He will split votes with his costar Al Pacino, also nominated here. The film itself has seen its viability to win categories fall backwards in recent weeks based on precursors. And Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the significant front runner.

The Verdict

It’s good to see Pesci back in the mix, but a second statue seems out of reach.

My Case of posts will continue with Florence Pugh in Little Women!

February 7-9 Box Office Predictions

The first full weekend of February features the Oscars on Sunday evening and an Academy nominee will certainly have the #1 picture domestically. Margot Robbie (nominated in Supporting Actress for Bombshell) headlines the only newcomer – her DC Comics spin-off Birds of Prey, featuring her demented Harley Quinn character. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/29/birds-of-prey-box-office-prediction/

My mid 50s estimate puts it in first by a mile. The rest of the top five should consist of holdover action fare (Bad Boys for Life and potential Best Picture winner 1917) and family friendly material (Dolittle and Jumanji: The Next Level).

Here’s how I think that top 5 will look:

1. Birds of Prey

Predicted Gross: $55.6 million

2. Bad Boys for Life

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

3. 1917

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

4. Dolittle

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

5. Jumanji: The Next Level

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

Will Smith and Martin Lawrence spent a third frame at #1 as Bad Boys for Life took in $17.6 million, a bit under my $19.8 million projection. The tally is up to $148 million.

1917 was second with $9.4 million compared to my $11 million take. The multiple Oscar nominee stands at $119 million.

Dolittle was third with $7.5 million (I said $6.9 million) as the troubled production has made $55 million.

The highest newcomer of the weekend (somewhat unexpectedly) is the horror flick Gretel & Hansel, opening in fourth with $6.1 million. That’s ahead of my $5.1 million forecast.

Jumanji: The Next Level was right behind in fifth with $6 million (I went with $5.6 million) for $291 million total.

In sixth was the second outing for Guy Ritchie’s The Gentlemen with $5.6 million. My guess? $5.6 million! $20 million is the overall gross.

Finally, the Blake Lively thriller The Rhythm Section tanked with $2.7 million in 10th place. I was way higher at $6.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The British Fall for 1917

The BAFTAs took place today and they’re the British equivalent of the Oscars. And it was 1917 continuing its epic run in precursors by winning 7 trophies, including Best Picture and Director. That said, the victory comes with a caveat and not a minor one. The last five BAFTA Picture recipients did not go on to nab the top prize with the Academy. So if you’re still considering going with Parasite or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or something else to take the biggest Oscar, there’s reason to do so.

In the acting races, nothing changed the narrative of having major front runners in all four. The winners (and it’ll look familiar): Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) for Actor, Renee Zellweger (Judy) in Actress, and Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Laura Dern (Marriage Story) for the supporting derbies. Simply put, anyone other than this quartet taking Oscar gold would constitute an upset.

One day after the Writers Guild named Jojo Rabbit as Adapted Screenplay as its winner and Parasite in Original Screenplay, BAFTA followed suit. It puts them in the driver’s seat for the Academy and that’s not welcome news for Little Women in Adapted or Hollywood in Original.

Another race to watch is Animated Feature because it seems wide open at the moment. Toy Story 4 is seen as the favorite due to Oscar’s penchant for Pixar. However, that sure seems iffy because other titles keep picking up precursors. Today it was Netflix’s Klaus taking the award.

Here’s the list of other winners for the BAFTAs:

Outstanding British Film – 1917

Film Not in the English Language – Parasite

Documentary – For Sama

Score – Joker

Casting – Joker

Cinematography – 1917

Editing – Ford v Ferrari

Production Design – 1917

Costume Design – Little Women

Makeup & Hair – Bombshell

Sound – 1917

Visual Effects – 1917 

Look for plenty more Oscar speculation as we are now one week away from the show!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Sam Mendes

My second Case of post discussing the directors up this year brings us to Sam Mendes for his World War I epic 1917:

The Case for Sam Mendes

The Englishman who became known for his theatre work became a Best Director winner with his first feature 20 years ago – American Beauty. Since then, he’s made a slew of pictures that never quite achieved full Academy attention: Road to Perdition, Jarhead, and Revolutionary Road among them. Over the past decade, he’s been in 007 land after making the last two Bond adventures Skyfall and Spectre. His latest effort has brought him back to serious contention and he’s got the hardware to prove it. Mendes has won the Golden Globe, Directors Guild of America, and BAFTA awards for his direction. Those three prizes alone puts him in the driver’s seat for a second Oscar 20 years apart. That, by the way, would be the longest stretch between a filmmaker taking the trophy.

The Case Against Sam Mendes

From a pure precursor standpoint, there really is no case against him. Yet there’s a lot of love for Bong Joon-Ho and his critically heralded Parasite. He serves as the chief competitor.

The Verdict

It is very hard to ignore the fact that Mendes has won everything that needs to be won in order to emerge victorious here.

My Case of posts will continue with Joe Pesci in The Irishman!