Jim Jarmusch’s Father Mother Sister Brother is your surprise Venice Golden Lion winner (top prize) for 2025. The dramedy anthology from the veteran indie filmmaker boasts a cast featuring Cate Blanchett, Adam Driver, Tom Waits, Vicky Krieps, Mayim Bialik, Charlotte Rampling, Indya Moore, Luka Sabbat, and Sarah Greene.
The three act pic is being distributed by Mubi with a stateside release on Christmas Eve. While Italian reaction was positive, it would seem the jury’s verdict was even more effusive. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 79 on Metacritic.
Five of the last 10 Lion recipients have gone onto a Best Picture nomination from the Academy – The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (which also won), and Poor Things. Jarmusch has never been a fixture with Oscar voters. Despite the Venice boost, I doubt that will change with Original Screenplay perhaps being the only realistic possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Most recently in headlines for an American Eagle jeans ad controversy, the narrative should be shifting for Sydney Sweeney after Christy‘s premiere at the Toronto Film Festival. The true life boxing biopic casts the 27-year-old as ring champion Christy Martin. Animal Kingdom maker David Michôd directs with a supporting cast including Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, Katy O’Brian, and Ethan Embry.
Ahead of its planned November 7th theatrical release, early reviews are certainly mixed with 65 on Metacritic and 68% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, praise for Sweeney is high. In a year where she’s appeared in a string of underwhelming features (Echo Valley, Americana, Eden), critics are lauding her work and the makeup artists who render her appearance far different than those denim advertisements. She is now in the mix for Best Actress as is the Makeup and Hairstyling department. It should be noted, however, that Actress appears to be stocked with contenders in films with better critical reaction. Playing her trainer turned abusive husband, ink for Foster is impressive. A Supporting Actor bid could materialize though the attention could be trained on the lead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 2025 Toronto Film Festival is officially underway and it opened with a documentary about Canadian comedic royalty. John Candy: I Like Me (borrowing a great line from his arguable career highlight Planes, Trains and Automobiles) recounts the actor’s personal and professional life life prior to his death at age 43 in 1994. Colin Hanks directs with Ryan Reynolds serving as a producer. It is slated for an Amazon Prime streaming debut on October 10th.
Early word-of-mouth from up north indicates this an affectionate and worthwhile (if conventional) experience that will satisfy fans of the legendary SCTV and silver screen performer. Nevertheless I’ve written scores of prediction posts on celebrity centered docs and it is rare for any of them to contend in Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards. Don’t look for this to buck the trend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Scarlet is not a hip reimagining of the Clue vixen when she was a young woman (though I’d totally watch that). It’s the latest Japanese action fantasy from filmmaker Mamoru Hosoda. The Toho title has premiered in Venice with a release in its home country in November and awards qualifying run anticipated stateside via Sony.
In 2018, Hosoda’s Mirai was one of the five contenders for Best Animated Feature, ultimately losing to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Follow-up Belle, in 2021, failed to do the same despite fine critical reaction and impressive box office numbers.
There aren’t enough reviews on Scarlet yet for RT or Metacritic scores. However, the limited consensus thus far is that Scarlet is a bit of a letdown. That dynamic could shift as more feedback is available, but I’ve already seen enough to cast doubt that this is any threat to win Animated Feature and its nomination is certainly questionable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
From Rocky to Raging Bull to Million Dollar Baby and The Fighter, boxing movies have a rich history with awards bodies. The Cut from Sean Ellis seeks to join that esteemed company with Orlando Bloom as a pugilist undergoing an unorthodox physical regimen. Caitriona Balfe and John Turturro (as a relentless trainer) costar.
You will see quite a few Oscar Prediction posts coming from 2025’s Toronto Film Festival in the coming days. The Cut actually premiered at last year’s Canadian event and is finally out this weekend domestically via distribution from Republic Pictures.
Critics are praising the work of Bloom and Turturro while notices for the pic itself are more mixed. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic lower at 54. That reaction and the low key release means this won’t make the cut with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Despite critical acclaim, The Long Walk could face a tough road when it debuts September 12th. The Lionsgate release is based on the first novel that Stephen King ever wrote when he was a teenager (it was eventually released under his pseudonym Richard Bachman in 1979). I Am Legend and Hunger Games series maker Francis Lawrence directs the dystopian horror flick. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Judy Greer, and Mark Hamill.
Reviews are impressive with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic. That said, genre fans have had plenty of material to view lately and The Conjuring: Last Rites should still be haunting viewers in its sophomore frame. Solid word-of-mouth could push it over double digits, but I’m skeptical.
The Long Walk opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kametsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:
Arriving 15 years after the acclaimed TV series that have now spawned three feature films, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale is out September 12th. Simon Curtis, who directed 2022’s Downton Abbey: A New Era, returns with franchise creator Julian Fellowes scripting. Returning cast members from the small and big screen include Hugh Bonneville, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter, Raquel Cassidy, Paul Copley, Brendan Coyle, Michelle Dockery, Paul Giamatti, Elizabeth McGovern, Dominic West, and Penelope Wilton. Newcomers to the proceedings are Joely Richardson, Alessandro Nivola, Simon Russell Beale, and Arty Froushan.
Fans of the series were anxious to go Downton in 2019 when the first movie premiered four years after the show went off air. The domestic opening was $31 million with a $96 million eventual gross. In 2022, the figures for New Era dwindled to a $16 million start and $44 million overall.
Grand could potentially benefit from its Finale moniker, but I’m not counting on it. I think it’ll open in range with its predecessor and maybe a touch higher.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale opening weekend prediction: $18.1 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kimestu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:
The generously titled Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the domestic marketplace starting September 12th. Tracking indicates that it will. Based on the popular Japanese manga series, it the latest installment in a franchise that continues to grow in popularity. A direct sequel to the fourth season of the anime TV series, Haruo Sotozaki directs the Crunchyroll distributed two and a half hour fantasy.
Castle has already dominated the overseas market. In its home country, it stands as the year’s highest grosser and third largest in history. In 2021, Mugen Train started off with $21 million stateside. Two years later, To the Swordsmith Village debuted to just over $10 million which 2024’s To the Hashira Training earned north of $11 million.
Buzz is louder this time around with expectations elevated. At the low end, Castle is anticipated to double the figures of its two predecessors. Some projections have this as high as $70 million plus! That would be an astonishing gross, but this could catch a wave making it possible. I’m going with low to mid 60s for what would be a record shattering beginning for its genre.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle opening weekend prediction: $64.6 million
For my Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale prediction, click here:
The nation of Tunisia has seen only one of their pictures nominated for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars and that was 2020’s The ManWho Sold His Skin. Kaouther Ben Hania was the director and her follow-up is The Voice of Hind Rajab, which has premiered at Venice and will soon play in Toronto. Focused on the true story of a five-year-old’s killing in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it has already been announced as Tunisia’s entrant for IFF.
Critical reaction thus far has resulted in a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes and the praise in Venice has been effusive including a reported 23 minute ovation. Executive producers on the project include Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Rooney Mara, and Alfonso Cuaròn. It is fair to assume that Voice will receive a major campaign from its as yet unannounced distributor. The international category already has plenty of viable contenders including frontrunner Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and The Secret Agent to name just four. Even with that caveat, the Academy may not be able to ignore this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
One Warner Bros horror flick looks to transfer the #1 spot to another as The Conjuring: Last Rites haunts multiplexes this weekend. We also have Disney releasing their filmed version of the Broadway play Hamilton. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
My mid 50s projection for Last Rites gives it the best opening of the franchise, just outpacing 2018’s The Nun and toppling the $40 million and change starts that the first two proper Conjuring flicks scared up. As mentioned, it will easily replace the WB’s Weapons from its Labor Day weekend perch atop the charts.
Hamilton is a tricky one. It could easily outdo my high single digits forecast, but it’s hard to ignore that audiences have been able to view it on Disney+ for five years. No matter what, it should manage a runner-up debut.
Weapons should place third while 4-5 could be awfully close between Caught Stealing and Freakier Friday.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $58.2 million
2. Hamilton
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Caught Stealing
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)
In a rather quiet Labor Day frame, Weapons returned to #1 with KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event having completed its two-day engagement from the previous frame. Zach Cregger’s missing persons scare fest took in $13 million, falling short of my $15.9 million call over the four-day holiday. The four-week total is $135 million.
Jaws 50th Anniversary swam past my expectations with $11.3 million for second, more than doubling my $5.6 million prediction. Crowds clearly were down for revisiting the shark tale.
Austin Butler crime thriller Caught Stealing nabbed a so-so $9.5 million in third and that was more than my $6.3 million projection.
Freakier Friday was fourth with $8.7 million, in range with my $9.4 million estimate for a four-week tally of $82 million.
Comedic remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman settled for fifth with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.9 million guesstimate.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps was sixth with $6.5 million (I said $6.1 million) for $266 million after six weeks.
Finally, The Toxic Avenger Unrated with Peter Dinklage didn’t crack the top 10 at $2.1 million. I went with $1.8 million.
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