For a filmmaker who always focuses on loners, it stands to reason that Paul Schrader’s newest picture is about playing cards. That’s not really what The Card Counter is ultimately about as the emotional damage inflicted upon the man at the poker and blackjack table is the real story.
William Tell (Oscar Isaac) follows the archetype of many a Schrader creation. Emotionally distant and more comfortable on his own, he spends considerable time in casinos across the nation. Tell, as the title suggests, knows how to count them. He also knows when to fold them. Tell could cash in big, but prefers modest winnings and even more modest motels (where he covers all the room’s decor in plain white sheets that he provides). His existence seems to suggest not wanting to be noticed at all.
William’s orbit expands when he happens on a global security convention during a gambling spree and meets Cirk (Tye Sheridan). They share a connection. Cirk’s father is deceased ex-military who was present at Abu Ghraib. So was Tell. The speaker at the conference is Major John Gordo (Willem Dafoe), who’s now a private contractor. He escaped any blame for the horrific actions overseas. Tell did not and flashbacks show us the subhuman conditions he witnessed, participated in, and was incarcerated for. In Cirk, our card counter attempts to help a troubled soul by winning him some some cash and paying off debts. Tell enlists La Linda (Tiffany Haddish, going for no laughs), a players manager on the mission.
From Travis Bickle in Taxi Driver to Ethan Hawke’s pastor in First Reformed, Isaac’s Tell fits the mold of the auteur’s central figures. These are damaged figures tired of what the world have to offer while making last ditch attempts to help another troubled soul. The problem with The Card Counter is that there’s not much in this example that we haven’t witnessed before from the same author. Most distressing is that the players around Tell simply aren’t compelling. In Schrader’s Light Sleeper (see that one), Susan Sarandon provided a captivating counterpart to Willem Dafoe’s lonesome drug dealer. Haddish’s character is barely written and her late inclusion as a love interest seems forced. So too is the case with Sheridan’s mopey apprentice. Dafoe’s character here hints at a fascinating backstory that’s unexplored.
Isaac’s performance, as we’ve come to anticipate, is quite good. Yet his tale isn’t nearly as gripping as others in the director’s previous works. We catch a glimpse of Tell’s training as a torturer and it is riveting and brief. With First Reformed, Schrader is righteously angry at political events. In that predecessor, it involved the Earth’s destruction via environmental means. In The Card Counter, it’s the hell on Earth that Tell witnessed in an Iraqi prison.
The screenplay offers not enough exploration of its universe. Had Schrader delved into the redundant and seedy world of casino dwellers more deeply, perhaps it could have paid off. After all, few writers have succeeded better in their other scripts penning depraved figures. The plot just never seems to properly call its ideas to fruition and the result feels unfinished. That’s rare when Schrader is at the table and it makes The Card Counter all the more disappointing.
It is a week of fairly minor movement in the major categories for my Oscar predictions. Even the five spot in Best Actor (which seems to change each week) remained intact.
There is a switch in Actress with Jennifer Hudson (Respect) back in over Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth).
The biggest happenings occurred in International Feature Film as nations are continuing to announce their submissions or shortlists in that race. We learned that Spain has gone with The Good Boss instead of Parallel Mothers (a surprise) and that France did not shortlist Petite Maman (which I had in the 5 slot). It’s out in favor of Happening.
You can read all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mass (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Flee (PR: 12) (-1)
14. CODA (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thoms Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smith-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Luca (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4 (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vivo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlotte
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Flee (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Happening (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 10) (+2)
9. I’m Your Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Petite Maman
Parallel Mothers
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 6) (E)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Julia (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The First Wave (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-2)
5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Luca
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Belfast (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Eternals
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following breakdown in terms of nominations for the pictures:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Spencer
4 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Eternals, Don’t Look Up, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Happening, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
The attendees of New York Comic Con were treated to a surprise this weekend with a screening of Ghostbusters: Afterlife. The fourth film in the franchise that famously began in 1984 serves as a direct continuation to the original and its 1989 follow-up. It’s all about family with Jason Reitman as director (his father Ivan made those first two). Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace, Logan Kim, and Paul Rudd join the bustin’ action with series stalwarts Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, Ernie Hudson, Annie Potts, and Sigourney Weaver making appearances. Afterlife is finally coming to life after numerous COVID delays with a November 19th stateside release.
Early reviews indicate a long gestating sequel has extreme reverence for its past. Some critics claim it might be a bit too nostalgic, but reaction is overwhelmingly pleasing with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 91% (based on 11 reviews).
The original classic 37 years ago managed 2 Oscar nominations. They’re what you would expect: Best Original Song for that addictive title track by Ray Parker Jr. and Visual Effects (it lost to Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom). Also as you might expect, Ghostbusters II and the ballyhooed 2016 Paul Feig reboot with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig achieved zero awards attention. I would anticipate the same for this despite the kudos. Visual Effects is a remote possibility, but there’s a slew of contenders more likely (Dune, The Matrix Resurrections, Eternals to name just some).
My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
The computer animated sci-fi comedy Ron’s Gone Wrong has debuted at the London Film Festival prior to its UK bow next weekend and US premiere on October 22nd. The film marks the first effort from Locksmith Studios which is owned by 20th Century Studios. Jean-Philippe Vine and Sarah Smith co-direct and the voice cast includes Zach Galifianakis, Jack Dylan Grazer, Olivia Colman, Ed Helms, Justice Smith, Justice Smith, and Rob Delaney.
Buzz coming from London is mostly solid though measured in its praise. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 80%. I’m not confident this will serve as a major contender in Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. It has no chance of winning. In my estimation, there are arguably three slots filled (Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines). Disney’s forthcoming Encanto certainly has the resume to contend. Assuming it makes the cut, that leaves one spot that could be filled by Belle, Vivo, or something else. I don’t foresee Ron’s having quite the right ingredients to fill it.
My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
The five film run of Daniel Craig as perhaps the world’s most famous cinematic character comes to a close in No Time to Die, the 25th feature in the nearly 60-year-old 007 franchise. It began 15 years ago with Casino Royale, which I list at #2 in the canon behind only From Russia with Love (Sean Connery’s second entry).
For those who think the dedicated team behind the series have no time for surprises, be prepared. Like the midsection poker sequence in Royale that stands as one of the finest in Bond history, there’s times where they go all in. There’s also moments that harken back to the Roger Moore days and, in this case, I mean it as a compliment. By the time we reached Craig’s third and deservedly praised Skyfall in 2012, the pics had achieved a level of seriousness that risked becoming too dour.
Despite its considerable flaws, 2015’s follow-up Spectre thankfully remembered that the action and plots in this cinematic universe can be silly. 007’s 25th adventure isn’t afraid to display that. The threat to the world here involves passing a weaponized virus only through that individual’s DNA and those related to them. It’s a little ridiculous and I once again mean that in a good way.
This is not quite the triumph that Casino Royale was. In fact, I’d also rank this a smidge behind Skyfall. The villain is not particularly memorable. Like all Craig films that followed the first, no romantic entanglement will rival the one he had with Eva Green’s Vesper Lynd. Yet Die achieves the unlikely feat of bringing those fun Moore elements dashed with Timothy Dalton’s more weighty tone. The result is that Craig’s time as the super spy (the longest in terms of actual time but not volume of titles) is easily the most satisfying since Sean Connery’s.
From the jump, we realize Die is going to be a little different. The pre-title sequence begins with a franchise first: an eerie and gorgeously rendered flashback that sheds light on the childhood of Madeleine Swann. As you may recall, she’s Bond’s love interest from Spectre played by Lea Seydoux. Her connections to that criminal enterprise led by Blofeld (Christoph Waltz) is expanded upon. In the present day, James and Madeleine are making a romantic go of it. A visit to Vesper’s tomb disrupts both their safety and Bond’s trust in his current relationship.
This all occurs in the lengthy prologue before we hear Billie Eilish’s title cut. Let’s dispense with that. Ms. Eilish has some quality tunes, but her contribution is forgettable and not the kind of Bond tune you’ll be humming leaving the theater or rushing to download for the ride back.
In the serialized fashion we’ve come to expect from Craig’s tenure (something unique only to his), we jump five years to Bond in retirement. And (gasp) he’s no longer 007. MI6 is still going strong but relations with their U.S. counterparts are strained. It’s not the new 007 (Lashana Lynch) or M (Ralph Fiennes) or even his beloved Moneypenny (Naomie Harris) or Q (Ben Whishaw) that convince Bond to emerge from his Jamaican R&R. Felix Leiter (Jeffrey Wright), along with a new eager associate (Billy Magnussen), recruit him for a mission that involves dismantling SPECTRE. Bond hooks up (not literally as Bond’s libido seems to be catching up with his age) with another agent (Ana de Armas) to do so. This culminates in a wonderfully fabulous and bizarre action set piece in Cuba.
All this activity soon puts James in the same space with Madeline again and with Blofeld. And we soon meet Safin (Rami Malek), the head baddie with his own troubled history with the criminal organization. I won’t wax rhapsodic about Safin as I mentioned he’s a pretty weak villain. On the other hand, No Time to Die is not really focused on his story. This Bond story, more than any other besides Skyfall, is really about Bond. That gives us one more opportunity to soak in Craig’s terrific performance that’s spanned this quintet. One could argue the series goes too far in making it all about him. With Craig in control, you’ll hear few complaints from me (heck even Quantum of Solace had some cool stuff in it).
No Time to Die has Cary Fukunaga taking over directorial duties from Sam Mendes, who helmed the previous two. He presides over some amazing looking chases and battles that rank right at the top of what we’ve seen previously. On a slightly contradictory note, there’s one during the climax that was a little too video game oriented for my taste. The screenwriters (with an assist from Phoebe Waller-Bridge) also remember to bring the humor. As much as Safin isn’t much of a memorable character, he does get a moment with a toddler that left me chuckling for a good minute or two after their interaction. The makers also don’t forget that these pictures can be quite weird in their production design. Safin’s Poison Garden is a glorious example.
Additionally, the team isn’t afraid to bring a rare level of emotion to the proceedings. However, it’s not that out of place for Craig’s service. We witnessed a love story in Casino Royale that went beyond his typical dalliances. His connection to Judi Dench’s M (particularly in Skyfall) went far deeper than the same character giving James his orders in the past. In No Time to Die, Mr. Craig’s mission involves the striking visuals that we’re used to. What’s different is that over the five adventures connected to each other, I felt like these missions developed a familial bond that shook the foundation of a franchise in a stirring fashion.
Had The Last Duel come out, say 15 years ago, it probably would be looking at a debut north of $20 million. That’s when director Ridley Scott was not far removed from his Oscar winning Gladiator and at a time when Matt Damon and Ben Affleck had more drawing power. In 2021, I’m not so sure. The 14th century set historical drama features the two Good Will Hunting stars as well as Jodie Comer and Adam Driver.
Originally slated for Christmas 2020 before its COVID delay, this is now the first of two Ridley Scott efforts hitting multiplexes this fall (the next being November’s House of Gucci). Early reviews indicate this will not be much of an awards player. With a 67% Rotten Tomatoes score, the bulk of the praise has come to Killing Eve actress Comer (who was recently widely seen in Free Guy). She could score a Best Actress nod, but don’t look for Duel to compete anywhere else.
The pic is hoping for an adult audience and many of those titles have struggled during this era. Additionally, competition is steep. Halloween Kills opens on the same day with No Time to Die in its sophomore frame. If it was garnering legit Oscar buzz, I might be more optimistic. However, I suspect Duel might arrive at a standstill next weekend. That could mean a premiere that just gets past double digits.
The Last Duel opening weekend prediction: $10.4 million
Arriving one year after its COVID delay, Halloween Kills stalks theaters October 15th. The 12th film in the nearly 45-year-old franchise, it’s a direct sequel to 2018’s Halloween, which served as a follow-up to 1978’s original (therefore ignoring everything that came in between). Got all that? David Gordon Green returns to direct. So do Jamie Lee Curtis, Judy Greer, Andi Matichak, Will Patton, and, of course, Nick Castle as Michael Myers. Anthony Michael Hall, Thomas Mann, and Kyle Richards are newcomers.
Three Octobers ago, Halloween blew away expectations with a $76 million opening gross and $159 million overall domestically. The debut weekend alone made it the highest earning feature in the series.
Universal Pictures recently made the surprising choice to simultaneously release this in cinemas and on the Peacock streaming service. I’m not so sure how much that hurts its chances in multiplexes (Peacock still isn’t on the level of its better known competitors). However, it doesn’t help.
Reviews for Kills aren’t as laudatory as part 1… err part 2 (or part 11… I suppose). The 2018 effort nabbed 79% on Rotten Tomatoes while this sits at 57%. Critical reaction shouldn’t determine its fate either. I do think the buzz surrounding Curtis’s return has dissipated. This should contribute to a lower premiere and I suspect low to mid 40s is where this ends up.
Halloween Kills opening weekend prediction: $41.2 million
Prior to its limited theatrical output on October 22 and Netflix bow on November 3, The Harder They Fall has dropped at the London Film Festival. The late 19th century set Western revenge tale comes from Jeymes Samuel, who wears many hats here as director, writer, producer, and composer. This is a fictional tale consisting of many actual African-American figures from the era. The cast includes Jonathan Majors, Idris Elba, Zazie Beetz, Regina King, Delroy Lindo, and Lakeith Stanfield.
Early reviews are quite positive and Fall stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with the handful of write-ups available thus far. Some critics have compared the violent, funny, and period piece elements to Quentin Tarantino. Of the impressive cast, Elba seems to be garnering lots of ink. Despite Emmy, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG nods in his filmography, he’s yet to make the cut with the Academy (his snub in 2015 for Beasts of No Nation was a surprising one). At the moment, Supporting Actor has very few surefire hopefuls (one could argue there’s none). If Fall is able to land with awards voters, here is an obvious category where it could play.
Regina King could factor in as well though Supporting Actress may already have at least a slot or two filled. She did also win just three years ago for 2018’s If Beale Street Could Talk.
As for the movie itself, I could see a scenario where it gains popularity once it streams and has its pushers for inclusion. I wouldn’t bank on it happening, but I wouldn’t totally discount it.
Finally, there’s the soundtrack which includes original tracks from Jay-Z, Lauryn Hill, and Kid Cudi. Mr. Z (who also produces) could find himself in a slot for the Original Song five. If he manages to do so, he’d almost certainly be competing against Mrs. Z (aka Beyonce, who’s got a close to assured nod for “Be Alive” from King Richard).
Bottom line: we need to see what kind of reaction The Harder They Fall garners when it steams, but the buzz is sturdy enough now to indicate a potential contender. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Blogger’s Note (10/06): I have revised my No Time to Die prediction from $104.1 million down to $94.1 million, which would still set a COVID era record.
After the absolutely fantastic and record breaking performance of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, James Bond looks to set his own high mark this weekend with the 25th 007 adventure No Time to Die. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Daniel Craig’s fifth and final contribution to the storied franchise has been climbing up with my estimates. Early last week, I figured it would do $72.1 million (good for second in the series after the $88 million achieved by Skyfall). By Friday, I went with $84.1 million. Following what Tom Hardy’s superhero sequel did, I am now figuring this will be the first Bond feature to debut north of $100 million.
There are potential obstacles. It certainly has a longer runtime than Venom. We would be in new territory for this franchise with a gross that enormous. That said, no one foresaw the Venom follow-up hitting $10 million more than its predecessor. I also believe the hoopla surrounding Die being Craig’s swan song (and the solid reviews) will only help.
The original Venom fell 56% in its sophomore in October 2018 to $35 million. Competition this time around is steeper and I do believe a 60% or more dip is certainly possible (thought it could continue to confound expectations).
After a decent debut, The Addams Family 2 will be third and I’d look for a drop in the mid 40s range (similar to its predecessor from 2019). Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings should hold the 4 spot with The Many Saints of Newark (after a subpar showing) in the 5 position.
Here’s how I envision the chart playing out:
1. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $94.1 million
2. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. The Many Saints of Newark
Predicted Gross: $1.8 million
Box Office Results (October 1-3)
I’m pretty sure the number $58.7 million is going to haunt me for awhile. That’s what I said Venom: Let There Be Carnage would gross out of the gate and, umm, I was a little low. As mentioned, the Tom Hardy sequel set a pandemic era best haul with a cool $90 million (topping the $80 million of part 1 and the COVID times best $80 million achieved by Black Widow). I think it’s safe to say get ready for part III as champagne corks are popping over at Sony.
The Addams Family 2 couldn’t come close to the $30 million start of part 1, but it wasn’t expected to. The $17.3 million output is right in line with the best of expectations and slightly ahead of my $16.6 million projection.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings was third with $6.1 million (I was higher at $7.6 million) for $206 million total. It’s the first pic to reach the double century milestone domestically since COVID.
Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark was a theatrical dud at just $4.6 million for fourth. I went considerably north of that with a $8.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as HBO hopes its Max subscribers stream it on their service.
Dear Evan Hansen tumbled badly in weekend 2 with $2.4 million. Again I was generous with $4.2 million. That’s a troubling 67% decline after a weak opening and the tally is $11 million.
My weekly Oscar predictions enters the month of October with no changes in my forecasted Picture and Director nominees. However, we do have movement in the acting derbies:
The five spot in Best Actor seems to change every Sunday. This time I’m swapping out Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley) for Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) once again.
In Actress, Jennifer Hudson (Respect) falls out in favor of Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter.
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) makes my Supporting Actress five for the first time at the expense of Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans).
My #1’s in the biggest competitions stay put with Belfast (Picture), Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog (Director), Kristen Stewart in Spencer (Actress), Will Smith in King Richard (Actor), Caitriona Balfe for Belfast (Supporting Actress), and Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza (Supporting Actor).
You can peruse all the activity for all the races below as I now have Belfast and Dune tied for garnering the most nods.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 9) (+3)
7. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-2)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Flee (PR: 12) (E)
13. CODA (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mass (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Humans
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (E)
9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Hand of God (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Passing (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Luca (PR: 2) (E)
3. Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vivo (PR: 6) (E)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Charlotte (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Hand of God (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Petite Maman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Happening (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Drive My Car (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. 7 Prisoners (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
I’m Your Man
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Attica (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Julia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Sparks Brothers
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cruella (PR: 4) (+2)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Spencer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Cruella (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
The French Dispatch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-3)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Luca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belfast (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (-4)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Free Guy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these pictures gathering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Annette, Attica, Belle, Cyrano, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Petite Maman, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
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