Tag: movies

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Box Office Prediction

Paramount hopes to post franchise best numbers for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Tom Cruise’s action series that began some 27 years ago and has now reached its seventh installment. It opens Wednesday, July 12th and is the third M:I pic in a row directed by Christopher McQuarrie. Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Rebecca Ferguson, Vanessa Kirby, and Henry Czerny (returning for the first time since part 1) reprise their roles with Hayley Atwell, Esai Morales, and Pom Klementieff as newly assigned cast.

With a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Reckoning is receiving the same acclaim that greeted predecessors Ghost Protocol (2011), Rogue Nation (2015), and Fallout (2018). Perhaps most importantly, this should benefit from being Cruise’s follow-up to last year’s box office phenomenon that was Top Gun: Maverick. It was easily summer 2022’s (and the year’s) largest grosser and the goodwill left over could launch this Mission to new heights.

In order to do so, Part One (part two is out in a year) would need to top the $61 million that Fallout took in five summers ago in its debut. With a Wednesday head start, a five-day haul over $100 million is certainly achievable.

The Mission movies traditionally leg out nicely throughout the season. With the exception of Ghost Protocol, all have premiered in summer. Many older filmgoers that will make the theatrical trek may not rush out opening weekend.

I’ll project low to mid 70s for the Friday to Sunday earnings as it should come awfully close and potentially exceed nine figures from Wednesday to the weekend’s end.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opening weekend prediction: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Oscar Predictions – Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Arriving five years after Mission: Impossible – Fallout and one year following the biggest hit of his career, Tom Cruise returns as IMF agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One on July 12th. The seventh feature in the franchise that began in the summer of 1996 looks to be one of this season’s largest domestic and worldwide earners.

The review embargo ended yesterday and the current results are a sizzling 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s currently the highest of the group though the last three entries have all topped 90% – 2011’s Ghost Protocol (93%), 2015’s Rogue Nation (94%), and Fallout at 97%. While Reckoning can boast the best percentage for now, numerous critics are putting it in the middle as far as best of for the series. In other words, don’t expect this to nab a Best Picture nomination like Cruise’s phenomenon Top Gun: Maverick did last year.

While the Daniel Craig James Bond pics and the Jason Bourne movies can boast nods from the Academy, the six previous M:I installments have netted a surprising total of zero mentions. It’s too bad a stunt category doesn’t exist, but it’s also been ignored in Sound and Visual Effects.

Sound seems to be the strongest chance though I wouldn’t count on it. Oppenheimer and certainly Dune: Part Two likely have reserved spots and if Fallout couldn’t make that cut, it might be 0 for 7 for this franchise. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 7-9 Box Office Predictions

After a subpar start, Harrison Ford’s fifth go-round as the iconic fedora clad archaeologist hopes to repeat at #1. The fifth edition of a horror franchise could disrupt that as Insidious: The Red Door swings in. We also have the critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride and action pic Sound of Freedom from upstart Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction
Joy Ride Box Office Prediction
Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction

After a lackluster haul (more on that below), Dr. Jones and company might see a sophomore drop in the low 50s. While the B+ Cinemascore grade exceeds the B that crowds gave predecessor Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, it still indicates middling enthusiasm moving forward. My high 20s take does mean a repeat performance atop the charts.

That’s because I have Insidious: The Red Door in the mid 20s. While that’s under the $29 million that The Last Key opened with in 2018, it is still a fine result for the 13-year-old franchise.

The weekend’s wild card is Sound of Freedom. Jim Caviezel’s turn as a vigilante taking on human traffickers is being championed by faith-based and conservative groups. This resulted in a terrific $14 million bounty when it started on July 4th. How it legs out is anyone’s guess and I’m going with a low double digits Friday-Sunday number. That would put it solidly in third.

As for Joy Ride, critics are being kind and the studio is hoping for a Crazy Rich Asians style sleeper hit. The hard R rating could prevent that and my sub $10 million projection puts it in fourth just ahead of animated holdovers Elemental and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

And with that, here’s how I foresee the top 6 shaking out:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $28 million

2. Insidious: The Red Door

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million

3. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

4. Joy Ride

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)

Considering Crystal Skull in 2008 made off with $100 million for its Friday to Sunday portion of a holiday weekend, the $60.3 million for Dial of Destiny is a major letdown for Disney. I wasn’t much more generous at $65.3 million. When it premiered in Cannes over a month ago, its mediocre reaction set the table for a disappointing gross. Perhaps more importantly is that it didn’t play for younger audiences whose reverence for the series isn’t matched by the 40 and up crowd.

Disney/Pixar’s Elemental, after a troubling start, continued to level off nicely in weekend #3. It was second with $12.1 million, in line with my $12.7 million prediction for a three-week $89 million tally.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $12 million compared to my $13.5 million estimate. The Sony juggernaut has amassed $340 million.

Jennifer Lawrence’s No Hard Feelings was fourth with $7.8 million (I went higher at $89 million). The ten-day take is $29 million which is fairly decent for a genre that’s struggled in recent times.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $7.3 million. I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The total is $136 million.

Finally, DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken was a major flop in sixth with only $5.5 million. I was kinder at $7.8 million. With serious kiddie competition, parents opted for leftovers like Elemental and Spidey.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios, the company behind The Chosen and His Only Son, hopes to find passionate fans with the action flick Sound of Freedom. From director Alejandro Monteverde, Jim Caviezel stars as a vigilante taking on human traffickers. Costars include Mira Sorvino, Bill Camp, and Kurt Fuller.

With a reported budget under $15 million, Freedom rolled out on July 4th with hopes for a healthy six-day run (I’ll confess that this was under my radar). It’s already nabbed a very impressive $14 million due to Angel’s unique form of crowdfunding and marketing to a targeted conservative audience.

This certainly has the ability to outpace any expectations and I do believe a Friday to Sunday take exceeding $10 million is achievable. That should put it in third place behind Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door.

Sound of Freedom opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million (Friday to Sunday estimate)

For my Insidious: The Red Door prediction, click here:

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction

For my Joy Ride prediction, click here:

Joy Ride Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: BlackBerry

2023 is at the halfway plus mark and critics are posting their best of lists for the year thus far. Matt Johnson’s BlackBerry, a dramedy focused on the invention of the OG smartphone, shows up on plenty. Jay Baruchel and Glenn Howerton (best known for It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia) headline with a supporting cast including the director himself, Rich Sommer, Michael Ironside, Martin Donovan, Michelle Giroux, SungWon Cho, Saul Rubinek, and Cary Elwes.

Those who first saw it at the Berlin Film Festival in February got the encouraging chatter started. Since its release in the past few weeks, the acclaim has grown as evidenced by the 98% Rotten Tomatoes meter.

Elevation Pictures is the studio behind it. Before becoming its own production company in recent years, they had awards success distributing such titles as The Imitation Game, Room, and Moonlight in Canada. They have yet to see their own financed entities have a breakout in the space.

I didn’t give BlackBerry much chance of being the one (that’s why you’re just now seeing this post). Yet the buzz seems to be getting louder. This applies to the adapted screenplay by Johnson and Matthew Miller and the supporting performance of Howerton, who is garnering best in show plaudits.

The bulk of contenders are often saved for the second six months of the calendar year, but BlackBerry could stick around in a way the product itself eventually could not. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Joy Ride

Between No Hard Feelings and this Friday’s Joy Ride, the raunchy comedy is back in multiplexes for the summer of 2023. The latter centers on four women (Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu, Sabrina Wu) on an international road trip. Costars include Ronny Chieng, Lori Tann Chinn, David Denman, and Annie Mumolo. Adele Lim makes her directorial debut. She’s best known for cowriting 2018’s Crazy Rich Asians (which the Academy surprisingly completely ignored) and Disney’s 2021 animated pic Raya and the Last Dragon (which nabbed an Animated Feature nomination).

Since its premiere back in March at South by Southwest, buzz for Ride has been glowing. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is parked at 97% as the Lionsgate release hopes to have sleeper potential at the box office. Its awards prospects could be tied to that. If it achieves a high profile, perhaps an Original Screenplay nod is doable. I will note, however, that this genre is not exactly a favorite of the voters.

A more likely scenario is the Golden Globes taking notice in the Musical/Comedy race where Crazy Rich Asians did compete. It could be a reach, but the reviews are there for it to occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Prisoner’s Daughter

Catherine Hardwicke’s Prisoner’s Daughter is one of the pics that failed to generate any buzz out of the Toronto Film Festival last fall. The drama casts Brian Cox as a terminally ill felon attempting to reconnect with his daughter played by Kate Beckinsale. Costars include Christopher Convery, Jon Huertas, and Ernie Hudson.

The film is out this weekend in limited fashion. Despite Cox’s recent visibility and acclaim in HBO’s smash Succession, Daughter has received scant promotion. Reviews are mostly weak with a 47% Rotten Tomatoes score.

I saw it in Toronto and can attest to its mediocrity. Hardwicke has been in the Oscar mix before when she directed Holly Hunter to a Supporting Actress nod in her 2003 breakout Thirteen. To mass audiences, the filmmaker is best known for 2008’s Twilight.

Despite Cox receiving some solid notices, this will most assuredly be unlucky when it comes to awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Joy Ride Box Office Prediction

Adele Kim, best known for cowriting 2018’s smash surprise hit Crazy Rich Asians, makes her directorial debut with Joy Ride on July 7th. The raunchy comedy, which premiered at South by Southwest to impressive reviews, stars Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, recent Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Sabrina Wu, Ronny Chieng, Annie Mumolo, David Denman, and Lori Tan Chinn.

The road trip pic is another hard R laugher in a genre underrepresented in recent years. There’s been a bit of a comeback this summer as it follows No Hard Feelings by two weeks and precedes August’s Strays.

With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this could manage to ride its festival buzz to a debut above $10 million. I’m going say it falls just short.

Joy Ride opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million

For my Insidious: The Red Door prediction, click here:

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction

For my Sound of Freedom prediction, click here:

Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction

Sony hopes for happy horror returns when Insidious: The Red Door opens on July 7th. The fifth feature in the franchise that began in 2010, costar Patrick Wilson takes over the directorial reins. Joining him in the cast are Ty Simpkins, Rose Byrne, Andrew Astor, and Lin Shaye.

The PG-13 supernatural saga is the first Insidious entry in five and a half years. It is said to serve to serve as a direct sequel to parts 1 and 2. 2013’s second chapter was the financial zenith with a $40 million premiere and $83 million eventual domestic take. Chapter 3 in 2015 did $22 million out of the gate and $52 million overall. 2018’s Insidious: The Last Key improved on its predecessor with $29 million in its initial weekend and $67 million total.

Door could be helped with the lack of genre fare in the marketplace (its TV teaser spot with Wilson getting a frightening MRI is pretty effective too). I don’t think it’ll quite reach the near $30 million of Key, but mid 20s sounds like the correct prognosis.

Insidious: The Red Door opening weekend prediction: $25.2 million

For my Joy Ride prediction, click here:

Joy Ride Box Office Prediction

For my Sound of Freedom prediction, click here:

Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction

June 30-July 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have my estimate for Ruby Gillman from to $10.8M to $7.8M, which puts it in fifth instead of fourth.

Harrison Ford hopes to retire his iconic character with boffo box office returns as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whips into theaters. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken seeking success amid serious competition. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be perused here:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

Disney might not have done itself any favors when it screened Destiny last month at the Cannes Film Festival. The critical reaction was rather weak as it sits with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes. The fifth entry in the franchise’s much maligned 2008 predecessor Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed 77%. I suspect that expectations should be tempered and I have it hitting mid 60s for what would be considered a significantly disappointing beginning.

Slots 2-4 should be quite animated with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental losing around 30-35%. That could put both of them ahead of Ruby. The fact that it’s not based on known IP won’t help and neither will the level of competition. I have it barely topping $10 million for a fourth place start.

No Hard Feelings should round out the top five with a 40% range decline in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $65.3 million

2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

3. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. No Hard Feelings

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (June 23-25)

Thanks to the disastrous performance of The Flash (we’ll get there shortly), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung back into 1st place in week #4. The acclaimed animated sequel took in $19 million. I was right on target with $18.9 million and it’s up to a terrific $316 million with $400 million in its sights.

Pixar’s Elemental, after a poor premiere, was on less shaky ground in its follow-up outing. The A Cinemascore grade probably helped as it dropped a commendable 38% at $18.4 million (I went lower with $16.8 million). That’s the smallest Pixar sophomore frame downslide since Up 14 years ago. The total is $65 million in ten days.

The Flash… wow. After a shockingly low $55 million opening, the DCEU debacle plunged 72% and landed in third with only $15.1 million. I was more generous at $17.5 million. The ten-day take is $87 million and it should be out of the top five in only its third go-round. Embarrassing.

Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings debuted in fourth with $15 million, exceeding my call of $11.7 million. For its genre, that’s a pretty solid haul as comedies have struggled in recent years. It should manage to hold up decently in subsequent weekends.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $11.7 million, rising above my $9.3 million projection. The three-week gross is $123 million.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expanded nationwide and nabbed the highest per theater average on the chart. The star-studded tale made an impressive $9 million and went above my $7.6 million guesstimate. It’s at $10.2 million when factoring its limited release dollars from the previous weekend.

Finally, The Little Mermaid was seventh with $8.5 million (I said $7 million) to bring its earnings to $270 million in five weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…