After premiering at the Tribeca Festival last month, the 1960s set family drama The Miracle Club is out in limited fashion this weekend. Thaddeus O’Sullivan directs the cast of Oscar nominees (Laura Linney and Stephen Rea), winners (Kathy Bates and Maggie Smith), and relative newcomers (Agnes O’Casey).
It’s hard to find a critic who’s over the moon on this, but plenty say the ensemble makes it worth the view. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at an unremarkable 67%. Despite the pedigree, this Club will need a miracle to enter the awards conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The key to the Mission: Impossible movies are the set pieces that continue to wow us in a way few other franchises do. This has been amped up in the Christopher McQuarrie era that began with 2015’s Rogue Nation, continued with Fallout three years later, and now with Dead Reckoning Part One. Tom Cruise and his director appear determined to outdo themselves when it comes to Romanian car chases and battles set aboard the Orient Express and motorcycle stunts that defy gravity. In the seventh M:I saga, there’s also a welcome dose of humor that’s occasionally reminiscent of Roger Moore’s Bond stretch. We’re not talking Moonraker. I’m referring to the high point of that run in 1977’s The Spy Who Loved Me where elements of the plot might be borderline silly, but we don’t care because the stunts and choreography are thrilling us.
Cruise’s Ethan Hunt has entered the elder statesman portion of his service to the Impossible Missions Force (IMF). He should be making retirement plans. However, disavowed MI6 colleague Ilsa (Rebecca Ferguson) is partially responsible for the latest assignment. She possesses half of a key that could unlock the secrets to the Entity, an AI device that’s working overtime to retire defense systems across the globe. Their mission that they always choose to accept is finding the other half of that key to bring this dangerous new world to a semblance of order. The usual colleagues Luther (Ving Rhames) and Benji (Simon Pegg) join in while master thief Grace (Hayley Atwell) is a fresh addition. For her set of skills, she’s sought after by arms dealer Alanna (Vanessa Kirby) from Fallout to broker her own deal with the key. Yet Grace might be exactly the kind of recruit that IMF employs. She’s absolutely a value add with Atwell’s spirited performance.
There are callbacks in Dead Reckoning that dive deeper into our main character’s backstory than ever before. It’s well established that Ethan will do whatever it takes for his profession and we’re getting more clues as to why. I suspect the fleshing out will go on in part two. The screenplay does a commendable job of (for the first time) explaining why the IMFers keep accepting these missions rather than politely declining. Another form of callback comes with Kittridge (Henry Czerny), who hasn’t been seen since his iconic appearance in 1996’s original. His duplicitous presence is a bonus.
With the notable exception of Philip Seymour Hoffman in M:I III (2006), villains haven’t overshadowed the heroes in the quarter century plus canon and that’s accurate here. Esai Morales as Gabriel is a shadowy figure whose motives may not see the light until the second part. Considering the Entity he represents, he’s not actually the main antagonist. When it comes to those opposing IMF, Kirby and Pom Klementieff as a quietly deadly assassin are the most memorable.
Ultimately it’s those lengthy chases and fights that make Dead Reckoning the summertime adventure delight that it is. I’d put it a tad behind 2011’s Ghost Protocol and predecessor Fallout in the official rankings. Cruise and McQuarrie know their formula. Nobody does it better, it makes you feel bad for the rest, and it can make the rest look artificial.
Blogger’s Update (07/19): I’ve increased my prediction from $52.3M to $65.3M
As one of the few directors whose name can open a movie, Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic Oppenheimer reaches theaters on July 21st. Cillian Murphy headlines the three-hour historical epic as the title character, known as the father of the atomic bomb. The large supporting cast includes Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, and Benny Safdie.
Shot for a reported $100 million, the Oscar hopeful is targeting a second place showing by outpacing the second frame of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One. First place appears unreachable due to Barbie. The social media world has had a ball with memes and GIFs celebrating the premieres of these two huge projects on the same date. The term “Barbenheimer” has even been coined with thousands of moviegoers having already planned long days at the multiplex to view both.
Thanks in large part to his Dark Knight trilogy, Nolan serves as the biggest main draw for his own projects. He boasts a directorial bankability that few of his colleagues share (Tarantino is another example). Non-Batman projects have seen impressive starts. In 2010, Inception (hot on the heels of The Dark Knight) premiered with $62 million. Interstellar started with $47 million in 2014. Over Labor Day weekend in 2020, Tenet braved unfavorable COVID conditions and managed a $20 million beginning.
Oppenheimer faces its challenges. There’s obviously the competition from an iconic doll and Ethan Hunt. The subject matter may not be enticing to younger viewers who typically drive the summer box office. Still early indications including some sold out IMAX venues at considerably higher prices have me thinking it could top $50 million.
Oppenheimer opening weekend prediction: $65.3 million
Blogger’s Update (07/19): I’ve increased my prediction from $127.8M to $160.8M
After a lengthy development process, the eagerly anticipated live-action Barbie seeks to pack movie houses on July 21st. Greta Gerwig, coming off two Best Picture nominees in a row with Lady Bird and Little Women, directs with Margot Robbie as the iconic Mattel creation and Ryan Gosling as Ken. The large supporting cast (some playing variations of the leading dolls) includes America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Rhea Perlman, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, and Will Ferrell. Once a vehicle for Amy Schumer and then Anne Hathaway, the reported $100 million production tapped Robbie four summers ago for the high profile project.
It goes without saying that the toy line dating back to 1959 has seen generations of consumers. Warner Bros is banking that crowds of all ages for the PG-13 rated pic will turn up. While it should certainly skew female, all demographics are expected to be represented.
Barbie has also been the benefactor of extra publicity due to Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer debuting on the same day. Dubbed “Barbenheimer” all over social media, the premiere of two awards and blockbuster hopefuls only adds to the hoopla.
The breakout potential seems quite real and buzz has been growing steadily since the trailer and other forms of exposure. Initial estimates were in the $55-$70 million vicinity, rose to $80-$100 million, and are now looking to top $100 million. I’m inclined to say it manages nine digits with room to spare.
This little blog of mine is over 10 years old now and a summer tradition has been to highlight the cinematic seasons of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We saw recaps of 1992, 2002, and 2012 around this time in 2022. Now this site is aged enough that I shall only look back at a decade ago. Therefore let’s shine a light on 2013 and the offerings between May and August.
Here’s how it works. I’ll recount the top 10 grossers domestically as well as other notable features and noteworthy flops. It was the summer after The Avengers dominated and Tony Stark still managed to rule in his own franchise.
Let the countdown begin!
10. The Great Gatsby
Domestic Gross: $144 million
Baz Luhrmann’s second collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio may have drawn mixed critical reaction, but audiences turned up and it won both Oscars it was nominated for (Production Design and Costume Design). It is still the stylish filmmaker’s largest worldwide earner even with last year’s success of Elvis.
9. We’re the Millers
Domestic Gross: $150 million
Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis headlined this raunchy comedy from Dodgeball maker Rawson Marshall Thurber. Like Gatsby, critics weren’t overly kind but crowds liked what they saw.
8. The Heat
Domestic Gross: $159 million
Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy (hot off Bridesmaids) teamed up for this buddy cop laugher from Paul Feig and it became the summer’s hottest live-action movie in its genre. Bullock would have a massive earner and Oscar nod in the fall with Gravity.
7. World War Z
Domestic Gross: $202 million
Some had it pegged as a potential financial disappointment, but this would turn out to be the biggest grossing zombie flick ever. Despite Brad Pitt’s presence and plenty of development rumors, a planned sequel has yet to materialize.
6. Star Trek Into Darkness
Domestic Gross: $228 million
JJ Abrams helmed this sequel two and a half years before taking on Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It holds the title of best global earning movie of the franchise.
5. Fast & Furious 6
Domestic Gross: $238 million
Vin Diesel and Paul Walker revved the series to unforeseen moneymaking heights at the time though part 7 would outdo it two years later. Six months after 6‘s release, Walker perished tragically in auto accident.
4. Monsters University
Domestic Gross: $268 million
The long gestating sequel to 2001’s Monsters University was a profitable venture for Pixar. It failed to nab an Animated Feature nod from the Academy (rare for the studio), but Disney likely wept into their cash.
3. Man of Steel
Domestic Gross: $291 million
The first picture in the DCEU came with gargantuan expectations with Zack Snyder directing and Henry Cavill donning the S. Reaction from critics and audiences was all over the map. Compared to this summer with the epic failure of The Flash, these were kinda the good ole days for DC.
2. Despicable Me 2
Domestic Gross: $368 million
Illumination dwarfed Pixar in the animated race with this sequel that became parent studio Universal’s most profitable film of all time. It’s also responsible for the season’s ubiquitous ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams.
1. Iron Man 3
Domestic Gross: $409 million
Tony Stark’s third solo adventure was generally considered an improvement on #2 as Shane Black handled the behind the camera work. It ended up as the year’s second best grosser behind November’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
Now for some others worthy of discussion:
The Conjuring
Domestic Gross: $137 million
It might be just outside the top ten in 11th, but James Wan’s horror classic spawned a decade’s worth of sequels (two thus far) and spin-offs (Annabelle, The Nun) with no end in sight.
Now You See Me
Domestic Gross: $117 million
The heist pic from Louis Leterrier (who just directed Fast X) was a sleeper smash with a $350 million worldwide haul. A less regarded sequel came in 2016.
The Butler
Lee Daniels helmed this decades spanning tale of Forest Whitaker’s White House employee with Oprah Winfrey as his troubled wife. The studio was likely hoping for more awards attention than it ended up with, but the earnings were impressive.
Pacific Rim
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Guillermo del Toro’s monster mashup didn’t wow with a significant domestic take, but the overseas dollars were enough to spawn a panned 2018 sequel. The international haul makes it the Oscar winner’s personal best.
This Is the End
Domestic Gross: $101 million
This end of the world saga from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg was a star studded (from Michael Cera to Rihanna) dark comedy with critics on its side.
The Purge
Domestic Gross: $64 million
This dystopian horror pic launched another money minting series and was an early sleeper success for Blumhouse.
Blue Jasmine
Predicted Gross: $33 million
That number marks an impressive one for Woody Allen in the 21st century and this nabbed Cate Blanchett a Best Actress Academy Award.
Fruitvale Station
Domestic Gross: $16 million
Marking the first collaboration between Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, this indie drama was a critical darling. The pair would achieve colossal success in the years to follow with Creed and Black Panther.
There were lots of hits a decade ago. Yet there’s always the projects that don’t match expectations.
The Hangover Part III
Domestic Gross: $112 million
Audiences were growing weary of The Wolf Pack in the lambasted third entry. It came in well below the previous two.
Elysium
Domestic Gross: $93 million
Neill Blomkamp’s District 9 in 2009 was nominated for Best Picture. This sci-fi follow up with Matt Damon was considered a letdown by not joining the century club.
The Lone Ranger
Domestic Gross: $89 million
I’m gonna go ahead and say you couldn’t green light this $250 million adventure starring Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer today. It turns out Disney shouldn’t have 10 years ago as this came in far under expectations. The box office magic that director Gore Verbinski and Depp created with Pirates of the Caribbean was gone.
White House Down
Predicted Gross: $73 million
Roland Emmerich’s latest with Channing Tatum as a secret service agent and Jamie Foxx as POTUS had its thunder stolen in the spring by the similarly themed and better regarded Olympus Has Fallen (which spawned two sequels).
After Earth
Predicted Gross: $60 million
Moviegoers slapped down M. Night Shyamalan’s sci-fi epic starring the father son duo of Will and Jaden Smith. Reviews were harsh with a 12% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
The Internship
Domestic Gross: $44 million
Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson’s 2005 romp Wedding Crashers was a $209 million earning smash. Eight years later, very few signed up for this forgettable reunion.
R.I.P.D.
Predicted Gross: $33 million
It might have been going for the Men in Black crowd, but audiences shunned this sci-fi comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds. Somehow a direct to DVVD prequel was commissioned and released last year.
And there you have it! A look back at 2013 in the multiplex. I’ll have a 2014 recap conjured up next summer…
Tom Cruise hopes to follow up the biggest hit of his career with a franchise best opening for the signature franchise as Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opens on Wednesday. It is the only newcomer out and you can peruse detailed prediction post on it here:
Cruise’s star power is the highest it’s been in years coming off the nearly billion and a half plus earning Top Gun: Maverick from last summer. In order to post the largest start among the seven missions, Reckoning will need to top the $61 million made by predecessor Fallout in 2018. I’m projecting it will do so with over $10 million to spare and bring in over $100 million when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers.
The real battle should be for second place. Coming off a surprise victory, Insidious: The Red Door should experience the heftiest decline (mid 60s) of the top five. This might cause a drop of 1st to 4th if Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny falls in the 50-55% range.
Sound of Freedom, the thriller from upstart Angel Studios, was the real story of the previous frame (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, it should have the smallest decline other than Elemental in fifth position. If the dip is lower than my estimated 40%, it might just manage to rise from third to second. I’ll give Indy the slight edge. However, it might be worth keeping an eye on daily grosses throughout the week.
Here’s how I see the high five playing out:
1. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Predicted Gross: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
3. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
4. Insidious: The Red Door
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (July 7-9)
As mentioned, horror fans were ready for scares as Insidious: The Red Door opened impressively. The fifth pic in the series which started in 2010 posted the second highest debut behind #2 in 2013 with $33 million. That’s beyond my $25.2 million prediction as the Sony/Blumhouse production has already doubled its reported $16 million budget.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was second in weekend #2 after its lackluster beginning. Sliding 55%, the $27.4 million gross was on pace with my $28 million take. The fifth go-round in this franchise is at $122 million after ten disappointing days for Disney.
The aforementioned Sound of Freedom employed shrewd marketing tactics that included a pay it forward method where viewers could purchase tickets for others. Jim Caviezel’s tale of taking on human traffickers reached its intended conservative and faith-based crowd and then some. The Friday to Sunday haul was $19.6 million for third place, easily outpacing my $12.5 million estimate. Since its unveiling on Tuesday, July 4th, the total is $41 million. Needless to say, Angel Studios has established itself as a player in the box office game.
Elemental was fourth with $10 million, ahead of my $8 million projection. Pixar’s latest finally crossed the century mark at $109 million.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $7.8 million) for $357 million overall.
Finally, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride stalled. It was sixth with just $5.8 million compared to my $8.4 million prediction.
After premiering at the Tribeca Festival last month, British thriller The Lesson is out in limited release stateside. Marking the feature length debut of Alice Troughton (who’s done her share of TV work across the pond), the cast includes Richard E. Grant, Julie Delpy, Daryl McCormack, and Stephen McMillan.
The Bleecker Street release is generating decent if rather subdued reviews with an 83% Rotten Tomatoes score. Five years back, Grant was a Supporting Actor contender for Can You Ever Forgive Me? and he may find himself in that mix for the upcoming Oscars with Emerald Fennell’s Saltburn. McCormack nabbed a BAFTA mention for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande last year.
Perhaps The Lesson could show up among the 10 nominees for Outstanding British Film at the BAFTAs. That could even be a stretch though maybe Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer is feasible. Don’t look for the Academy to notice it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.
Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.
Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.
Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.
In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.
As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)
15. May December (PR: 15) (E)
16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)
17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
How Do You Live?
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
David Fincher, The Killer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Color Purple
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Claire Foy, Strangers
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Faist, Challengers
Josh O’Connor, Challengers
Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted)
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)
With James Mangold taking over directorial duties from Steven Spielberg and Harrison Ford now an octogenarian, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny risks ending the 42-year-old franchise as almost an afterthought. Luckily it manages to capture the Indy spirit in fits and starts. This is not the travesty that some in the social media spiral of spin will claim it is. For that matter, neither was 2008’s derided predecessor Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. That film, however, was a bit of a mess. Destiny is stronger though it does not match the quality of the deservedly storied trilogy from 1981-89.
To borrow a phrase from Brad Pitt in Inglourious Basterds, Indy’s gonna be doin’ one thing and one thing only… killin’ Nazis. At least that’s where we begin in a 1944 set prologue. Dr. Jones (de-aged by pretty effective visual effects) and colleague Basil Shaw (Toby Jones) are battling Hitler’s troops as they seek the Lance of Longinus (the weapon used to pierce Christ during the crucifixion). This turns out to be a fool’s errand. However, the archaeologists do come upon half of a dial invented by Archimedes that’s rumored to allow for time travel. Nazi physicist Jürgen Voller (Mads Mikkelsen) needs it to reverse his team losing the war. Yet the more youthful Indy manages to wrestle it away.
Flashing forward to 1969, the Professor is retiring from his teaching job. It seems the aging iconic action hero hung up the whip some time ago. His marriage to Marion (Karen Allen) is on the ropes and Jones seems destined for an uninspired last few years in a cramped NYC apartment. Enter Helena (Phoebe Waller-Bridge), his goddaughter to now deceased Basil. While Indy’s neighbors and the American people are preoccupied with the imminent moon landing, Helena wants her out of touch godfather dialed back into the dial business. She gets the reluctant retiree to don the fedora to find the other half. Her young sidekick Teddy (Ethann Isidore) is along for the ride. Voller, now living under an assumed named and working for NASA, hasn’t forgotten about it in the last quarter century as he and head henchman Klaber (Boyd Holbrook) attempt to forcefully retrieve it.
The globetrotting commences from NYC to Morocco and Greece and eventually some really unforeseen places. Just as Crystal Skull finally brought a Spielberg mainstay alien subplot to the Indy mix (to much derision, some warranted), Destiny gets the Marty/Doc Brown vibe happening. I won’t delve into the spoiler centric details, but I will say this. The ending portions may not work very well in execution, but it does continue this franchise’s tradition of giving us bonkers third acts. I’m just sayin’ you may need to do a series rewatch if you think Destiny‘s climax is too out there. This is not necessarily a bad thing.
As mentioned, there are frequent instances where this captures the mood of what we dug in the 1980s. I experienced it in a chase scene or two (one during a ticker tape parade is a highlight). I found Waller-Bridge to be a better partner in artifact retrieval than Shia LaBeouf’s Mutt from 15 years ago. Yes, the brief reappearance of Sallah from Raiders and Last Crusade (John Rhys-Davies) feels tacked on. The runtime can feel as exhausted as our title character these days. It is those old-timers that provide the most memorable parts whether it’s the John Williams score or Mr. Ford still nailing the gruff yet caring legend. Does the nostalgia feel forced at times? Sure. It’s still one small step up from when we last saw Indy.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 marches to the beat of the writer-director James Gunn’s carefully curated playlist of the mawkish blended with the macabre. The actual needle drops are plentiful from Radiohead to Florence and the Machine and Earth, Wind & Fire and Spacehog (there’s actually CG swine in space in case you were wondering). Storyline A inflicts enough grotesque violence on cute furry creatures that I anticipated Sarah McLachlan piping up with a syrupy ballad, but it isn’t to be.
Team captain Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) is far from over the death of Gamora (Zoe Saldaña) in Avengers: Infinity War as we begin. Since it’s the MCU, she didn’t perish in the traditional way. The character was back as a different version of herself and with amnesia of her primary franchise’s activities in Avengers: Endgame. Now the leader of the thieving Ravagers, Gamora reunites with the old gang when Rocket (voiced by Bradley Cooper) is attacked and left critically wounded. As a reminder, the team also consists of Gamora’s half sister Nebula (Karen Gillan), charmingly dense warrior Drax (Dave Bautista), empath Mantis (Pom Klementieff), and Bob Ross favorite Groot with Vin Diesel grumbling his limited dialogue.
The highly intelligent raccoon Rocket is given the full flashback origin treatment in the third volume. His demented creator is Orgocorp CEO High Evolutionary (a scenery devouring Chukwudi Iwuji) who specializes in developing hybrid creatures and discarding them if they don’t meet his standards. Spoiler: the vast majority do not. Rocket is one of his most prized subjects from his dozens of batches at Orgocorp. It is only at the corporate headquarters that his life can be saved so the Guardians set course.
Along the way there’s stops at other galaxies including the bizarro Counter-Earth with its populace of human/animal hybrids. That extended sequence is an example of Gunn at his best with the grimly comedic gumbo. It works well on that planet and in plenty of other moments. Rocket’s backstory does manage to pull the heartstrings fairly successfully.
All other subplots are given the short shrift. Drax and Mantis have a few humorous bits though they’re truly secondary characters this time (as is Groot). Even the presence of Gamora, while giving the gifted Saldaña basically a fresh character to play, takes a backseat to Rocket’s launch in the plot. I’ll note that it’s taken this long to mention Adam Warlock (Will Poulter). He was teased at the end of volume 2 as a nemesis to the title heroes. Adam is responsible for Rocket’s wounds and then the script doesn’t really know what the heck to do with him. He could’ve been written out the script entirely and it would’ve made zero difference. Pratt’s work as Peter Quill/Star-Lord is still a treat. It’s an MCU casting decision that ranks almost as high as Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man. He manages not to be overshadowed by his omnivorous costar.
Of the various sub-franchises in the Marvel Cinematic Universe containing three entries or more, Guardians is surprisingly the first where quality flows in order of release. That’s not to say the quality is missing. It’s that the mix has more lowlights than the previous two and definitely runs longer than necessary. Gunn still manages to make the sentimental and sometimes sadistic concoction worthwhile and it’s a cut above most MCU material post Endgame.
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