Mixing sci-fi, comedy, and government conspiracies, Juel Taylor’s directorial debut They Cloned Tyrone arrives on Netflix tomorrow. It premiered at the American Black Film Festival last month to glowing reviews and that has continued to the tune of a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. John Boyega, Teyonah Parris, Jamie Foxx, David Alan Grier, and Kiefer Sutherland star.
Despite the acclaim, its premiere seems a tad inconspicuous. It might not help that it is streaming in the same frame as the Barbie and Oppenheimer unveilings. However, a limited theatrical output last weekend does make it Academy eligible.
If Netflix were to mount a serious campaign for Original Screenplay (penned by the director and Tony Rettenmaier), perhaps Tyrone could be called up there. I’m guessing the streamer will be focused on different campaigns. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A prominent cinematic subgenre in 2023 has been origin stories for various products that captured our attention. Think BlackBerry and Tetris and Flamin’ Hot. You can add The Beanie Bubble to the list. Hitting theaters in limited capacity on Friday before its Apple streaming debut on July 28th, the comedy-drama focuses on the craze that was Beanie Babies. The cast is led by Zach Galifianakis, Elizabeth Banks, Succession‘s Sarah Snook, and Geraldine Viswanathan.
Based on a 2015 novel, the behind the camera talent is a notable duo. Co-director and writer Kristin Gore is the daughter of former Vice President Al Gore. Her fellow filmmaker and real life husband is Damian Kulash, lead singer of the band OK Go.
When it comes to the aforementioned features, the 82% Rotten Tomatoes score matches Tetris, is ahead of Hot‘s 68%, and behind the impressive 98% that BlackBerry rang up. The reviews do not indicate that Bubble will be a factor in the awards mix down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney is again hoping families wish to check into the Haunted Mansion when it opens July 28th. Based on the half century plus old theme park attraction, Justin Simien directs with a cast featuring LaKeith Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Danny DeVito, Rosario Dawson, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Jared Leto.
The 2023 version is apparently adhering to the Sean Parker school of thought when it comes to titling. As you may recall, this is now the second pic based on the ride behind 2003’s The Haunted Mansion with Eddie Murphy. It opened over Thanksgiving weekend 20 years ago and grossed a fair $75 million stateside.
I’m not so sure kids are clamoring for a fresh take on this spooky story. Buzz seems quiet and that’s troubling for the Mouse House after the recent commercial disappointment Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Two decades ago, our Mansion with the The had a three-day premiere of $24 million and $34 million over the November holiday. The The less Mansion could open similarly in the mid to high 20s from Friday to Sunday. That’s pretty weak stuff considering we’re not adjusting for inflation.
Haunted Mansion opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million
When it comes to Academy love for Christopher Nolan and his filmography, the magic number appears to be 8. That’s how many nominations happened for 2008’s The Dark Knight, 2010’s Inception, and 2017’s Dunkirk. The filmmaker looks to exceed that figure with Oppenheimer. The three-hour epic biopic starring Cillian Murphy as the father of the atomic bomb opens this weekend and the review embargo lapsed today. The massive supporting cast includes Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, and Benny Safdie (among others). Seriously when I say among others. As in, Gary Oldman plays Harry Truman and that’s far down on the Wiki list of familiar faces.
The Academy has a checkered history with Mr. Nolan. While The Dark Knight managed those eight mentions and won two, it famously missed Best Picture. Many believe the expansion to 10 features from five a year later was due to the Dark snub. Nolan himself has only been up for Best Director once with Dunkirk. His omission for Inception was a surprise. As far as actors who’ve competed in his works, that list consists of only one: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. He, of course, posthumously won.
Based on the critical reaction to Oppenheimer, Nolan’s record for nods may be broken and the acting list should expand. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 93% and while not all write-ups are raves, I believe enough are so that Best Picture and Director are likely happening. In fact, I see both of them occurring before an Adapted Screenplay spot (which could still materialize).
It’s no surprise that this should play in tech races. From Cinematography to Film Editing and Original Score and Production Design. Those might be givens as is Sound. Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Visual Effects are all feasible too.
If you’re keeping score, we’re already potentially above 8. Then there’s the performances. Murphy (obviously in lead) was assumed to be a surefire contender (his first at bat) and that’s bearing out. The bigger question was which supporting players would emerge. The answer it seems is Blunt and Downey Jr. For Blunt, it somehow would mark her first nomination. For Downey Jr., it would be the third – 31 years after Chaplin in lead and 15 years following Tropic Thunder in Supporting.
Bottom line: Oppenheimer appears positioned to be Nolan’s personal best showing at the big dance. It should be right up there with Killers of the Flower Moon and perhaps Dune: Part Two as far as numerical possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
One of 2023’s most anticipated titles is out Friday with Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and the review embargo has lifted for the Mattel property. The box office expectations have steadily risen in recent weeks and I’ve got it nearly reaching $130 million out of the gate. Margot Robbie is, of course, the title character with Ryan Gosling as Ken. The sprawling supporting players include America Ferrera, Rhea Perlman, Will Ferrell, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, and Helen Mirren.
It could be said that the embargo has been eagerly awaited as well. With 70 write-ups in at publication press, the Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at a robust 90%. Even when the trailers debuted, we could see awards potential in a few technical races. This includes Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Costume Design. Expect it to be in contention for all three.
The bigger question is whether it plays beyond the down the line races. Gerwig cowrote wrote the screenplay with her partner Noah Baumbach. Many reviews hone in on the clever take for the iconic IP and Adapted Screenplay seems like the most likely major category nod. If Barbie is a moneymaking behemoth (and especially if it holds decently after an expected humongous start), Best Picture and Director mentions are feasible. I’ll note that Gerwig’s two previous pics – 2017’s Lady Bird and 2019’s Little Women – both landed BP slots.
As for the performances, both Robbie in Actress and Gosling in Supporting Actor are doable. This would be the former’s third nod after 2017’s I, Tonya and 2019’s Bombshell (for supporting) and the latter’s third behind 2006’s Half Nelson and 2016’s La La Land. Based on early buzz, I see Gosling as more probable than Robbie. However, we need to see how much competition emerges in the fall. There should be plenty considering that’s when the bulk of Oscar hopefuls debut. America Ferrera is also drawing some raves for her work so we shall see if WB makes a push for her in Supporting Actress.
Lastly, Billie Eilish has the tune “What Was I Made For?” and it may be the soundtrack’s entry in Original Song. As you may recall, she won the gold statue in that race in 2021 for her title track “No Time to Die”. It will be interesting to see if Warner Bros also mounts a campaign for “I’m Just Ken”, sung by Gosling.
Bottom line: the right combo of critical praise and box office bucks could propel Barbie to plenty of nominations. Another path could involve some tech stuff and the script. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Wes Anderson’s mix of melancholia and quirky humor is abundant in Asteroid City with its massive cast and dueling aspect ratios. This is a stunning looking feature focused on the behind the scenes made for TV airing of a play (shot in black & white). The play itself is presented via Technicolor hues in a Western desert setting in the 1950s. Whether it’s the characters they’re playing or the actors and directors themselves, they exist in Anderson’s wheelhouse of themes. From dealing with grief to unlikely romances and coming-of-age under unique circumstances, any filmmaker would be rightly accused of ripping off Anderson if this weren’t made by him. Whether it works will depend on how into him you are. I’m not a die-hard though his signature style popped for me in The Royal Tenenbaums, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and more. It can also leave me cold. That happened in portions of his previous effort The French Dispatch while other segments were more successful. This City was lukewarm.
The play we see (which takes up the bulk of screen time) happens in the sleepy title dwelling awoken by a youth astronomy convention. One of the top outcasts competing is Woodrow (Jake Ryan), the movie’s Max Fischer from Rushmore but nicer. His father is war photojournalist Augie and he’s played by Jason Schwartzman, who played Max in Anderson’s acclaimed dramedy from 1998. He’s recently widowed and (in a gag that works throughout) hasn’t figured out how to tell his son and three young daughters who might be witches that mom has passed. Tom Hanks is his wealthy father-in-law who lives on a golf course and reluctantly is teeing up accommodations for the family.
Another competitor is Dinah, daughter of Midge (Scarlett Johansson), a sullen movie star who assumes her fate will be similar to ingenues like Marilyn Monroe. She engages in a fireworks free tryst with Augie while Woodrow develops a crush on Dinah.
We’ve seen plenty of all-star casts in his oeuvre, but Anderson outdoes himself in Asteroid City. From Steve Carell’s motel manager to Matt Dillon’s auto mechanic or Tilda Swinton’s scientist and Rupert Friend’s singing cowboy who’s sweet on Maya Hawke’s teacher, the cast is a loaded group. Some are practically blink and you’ll miss them appearances – hey there’s Jeff Goldblum! And Hong Chau! Jeffrey Wright, who gave a segment stealing performance in The French Dispatch, has a highlight scene as a General judging the convention.
Without going into spoiler territory, the plot eventually employs sci-fi elements in an idiosyncratic Wes way. While this is happening, we get monochrome interludes with Bryan Cranston’s host introducing and commenting on the teleplay, Edward Norton as its writer, and Adrien Brody as the randy director. These are great performers, but the best moments come in Asteroid City. The backstage business of meeting the performers counterparts didn’t have a deep impact with me.
Neither did Asteroid City as a whole. Schwartzman and Johansson (who really sells her considerable star magnetism) have a couple memorable scenes of courtship. The technical work, particularly the production design, is impeccable. Yet the emotional and comedic payoff that has worked in Tenenbaums and beyond feels more remote in this bright wasteland.
Blogger’s Update (07/19): Rising predictions as Barbie is elevated to $160.8M and Oppenheimer to $65.3M
In one of the most anticipated box office frames in recent memory, two awards hopefuls hoping to score massive grosses are off and running. It’s been deemed the “Barbenheimer” weekend across social media outlets as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer premiere. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The range of possibility for Barbie keeps rising as it appears to have captured the zeitgeist. All ages are expected to attend with a particularly gigantic female crowd and that puts my estimate at over $125 million. That would give it the second biggest three-day haul of any 2023 title behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
While Oppenheimer won’t reach Barbie territory, Mr. Nolan is one of the few directors whose name can open a picture and I expect that to apply with this likely Oscar hopeful. I believe it can manage a rock solid second place showing north of $50 million (the pricier IMAX showings should provide an assist).
After a smaller than anticipated debut (more on that below), Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could fall victim to the shiny newcomers. I have it dropping over 50%. I do expect it will level off nicely in August and eventually post numbers similar to predecessor Fallout from 2018.
Sound of Freedom landed a jaw dropping second weekend figure when it rose 39%. That’s something we simply don’t see in the summer months (and hardly ever in any season). Truth be told, I have no clue what this anomaly will post in its third frame. I’ll guesstimate a 20-25% decline.
Elemental seems poised for a minimal dip compared to fellow holdovers Insidious: The Red Door and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and that might keep it in fifth position.
Here’s how I envision that top 5 shaking out:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $160.8 million
2. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $65.3 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Predicted Gross: $25.5 million
4. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $21 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
Box Office Results (July 14-16)
Tom Cruise’s seventh adventure as IMF agent Ethan Hunt came in under projections and unable to set franchise records as many figured it would. That includes this blogger. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One made $54.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $78.4 million when factoring in the five-day tally since it opened on Wednesday. That’s considerably below my respective estimates – $72.7 million and $102.3 million. It played more like the sequel to series predecessor Fallout from 2018 and less like Cruise’s immediate follow-up to the phenomenon that was last summer’s Top Gun: Maverick. The earnings left it under Fallout‘s franchise best three-day marker of $61 million.
In the runner-up slot, Sound of Freedom astonished everyone with its near 40% jump to $27.2 million in its sophomore outing. That’s, ahem, more than my $12.1 million prediction as the Angel Studios action thriller is up to $85 million since its July 4th beginning. No one saw these kind of financial fireworks and it could hit $200 million when all is said and done.
Insidious: The Red Door went from 1st to 3rd with an understandable 61% plummet to $13 million. The horror sequel actually held up sturdier than my $11.4 million estimate and the two-week total is $58 million.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was fourth in weekend 3 with $12.2 million (I was close at $12.7 million). The subpar tally is $145 million.
Finally, Elemental rounded out the top five with a scant 9% decrease at $9 million compared to my $7.9 million prediction. It’s now at a respectable $125 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… may all your Barbenheimer dreams come true…
With backing from upstart Angel Studios and a budget below $15 million, action thriller Sound of Freedom has unquestionably become the summer’s sleeper hit. When it was released on July 4th, it came in under the radar screens of many prognosticators (including this one). The marketing campaign was clever with a pay it forward angle allowing viewers to purchase tickets afterwards for their family and friends. Combine that with an emphasis on appealing to conservative and faith-based crowds and the Jim Caviezel vehicle took off in a way few anticipated. After its second weekend in release, the gross stands at over $85 million stateside. It actually increased its box office haul in weekend #2 by over 35%. That doesn’t happen often.
Moviegoers are liking what they see. The Cinemascore grade is a rare A+ and the Rotten Tomatoes score for the masses is 100%. As for the official reviews, the RT meter is a favorable though far from overwhelming 72%.
Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have thought to do an awards write-up on Freedom. Yet I suspect the film’s target audience will push for its inclusion to Academy members in Best Picture, Actor, and Original Screenplay. It is extremely unlikely to materialize, but expect to see lots of social media chatter advocating for it in the early part of 2024. If Caviezel’s mega-grossing The Passion of the Christ nearly 20 years ago couldn’t get on Academy’s radar, this won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
An exploration of African-American hockey players in our neighbor to the north and the historical racism involved, the documentary Black Ice premiered at the Toronto Film Festival ten months ago. From filmmaker Hubert Davis, it is out in limited theatrical release this weekend.
Boasting executive producers including Drake and Lebron James, Ice was a critical favorite at its fest debut. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%. Lionsgate will need to employ a robust campaign for the Academy to consider it for one of the five spots in Documentary Feature. The review are solid enough that it’s a possibility, but other high profile docs should emerge during the imminent fall fest season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
At one point in Maggie Moore(s), New Mexico police chief Sanders (Jon Hamm) tells his blunt deputy Reddy (Nick Mohammed) that he has no concept of when it’s OK to tell a joke. You could say the same with Paul Bernbaum’s screenplay. This black comedy attempts to pull off incorporating pedophilia and hate crimes as its murder mystery plays out. It doesn’t work in this aimless grim pic. Plus it’s just not very funny.
Maggie Moore (Louisa Krause) works at a diner while sleazy husband Jay (Micah Stock) is the franchisor of a sandwich shop where he buys rancid meat on the black market. When she threatens to expose his various shady business dealings, she turns up dead. A gigantic deaf hitman named Kosco (Happy Anderson) is responsible. In this small town setting, there’s another Maggie Moore (Mary Holland) and perhaps her murder will throw Hamm’s chief from the fast food potential felon.
This all goes down early in the picture and most of Moore(s) is Sanders and his partner catching up with what we already know. This unfortunate structure zaps it of any suspense and when the humor falters (which is most of the time), the mold gathers quickly.
You might think a 30 Rock reunion of Hamm and Tina Fey courting each other could save it. She plays Jay’s nosy and self-conscious neighbor who catches the lawman’s eye. Despite their easy chemistry that results in a handful of laughs, it can’t rescue the second feature length effort from the lead’s Mad Men costar John Slattery.
The aforementioned taboo subjects indicate that its makers want to bring an edge that is never earned. None of the relationships feel authentic in a script where the players are quirky without quality development. The subs aren’t the only item that are substandard.
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