Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’m downgrading my prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M
Sony hopes viewers are game for Gran Turismo when it opens August 25th. Neill Blomkamp, best known for 2009’s Best Picture nominee District 9, directs the racing sports drama based on the Playstation property. Archie Madekwe stars as a real life Turismo player who became an actual driver. The supporting cast includes David Harbour, Orlando Bloom, Darren Barnet, Djimon Hounsou, Geri Haliwell Horner, and Thomas Kretschmann.
While it’s generating mixed reviews (59% on Rotten Tomatoes), the audience score is an impressive 98% based on limited previews over the preceding two weekends. It was originally slated for August 11th before the studio pushed it back. The decent buzz should manage to get this past $20 million, but I’m not sure it gets much beyond that. That number should allow it to close out August as the strongest finisher on the charts.
Gran Turismo opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million
We will see if it struggles at the box office (which is expected) or exceeds projections, but Blue Beetle is topping expectations with its reviews. The 14th pic in the DC Universe currently has the 4th best Rotten Tomatoes score (81%) behind Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and The Suicide Squad. Ángel Manuel Soto directs the origin story with Xolo Maridueña as the title hero.
The MCU has racked up plenty of Visual Effects nods (though no victories) in addition to a BP nod for Black Panther five years ago. The DCU’s awards exposure has been far more limited. 2016’s Suicide Squad (not the stronger reviewed 2021 reboot The Suicide Squad) won for Makeup and Hairstyling. And that, my friends, is the extent of the DCU Oscar mentions.
It is worth noting that Visual Effects this year looks kind of thin. The unseen Dune: Part Two is probably the easy frontrunner while the other four slots are up for grabs. Beetle is getting some praise for its visuals and it likely stands a better chance than earlier ’23 DCU titles Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. If it can make the shortlist, maybe it gets in. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.
Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.
In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).
You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)
20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)
21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Priscilla
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)
14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)
1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)
14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Rustin
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Rustin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)
9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)
5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kokomo City
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The DCEU hopes to halt a string of disappointments with Blue Beetle while Strays features the vocal canine stylings of Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx. Both pics will attempt to dethrone Barbie after four weeks on top. My individual prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Warner Bros and DC Comics have seen some underwhelming returns as of late with Black Adam, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and this summer’s mega flop The Flash. I don’t anticipate their fortunes will turn with Beetle. A best case scenario might be $30 million. My projection below $25 million does give it an ever so slight edge over Barbie (which I see falling in the mid 30s in its fifth outing). Yet I doubt WB/DC will be bragging.
As for Strays, the R-rated comedy might have benefitted from Ferrell and Foxx hitting the promotion circuit. With the SAG-AFTRA strike, that’s not an option. This genre has struggled in recent years anyway. My low to mid teens take puts it in third with a start similar to No Hard Feelings from a few weeks back.
Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Blue Beetle
Predicted Gross: $23.7 million
2. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
3. Strays
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
4. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
Box Office Results (August 11-13)
The summer phenomenon that is Barbenheimer returned to rule the charts with Barbie leading the way. In its fourth frame, it took in $33.8 million and that’s good for the ninth best fourth weekend in history. It’s also a touch higher than my $30.4 million forecast as it climbed to $526 million overall.
Oppenheimer returned to the runner-up slot with $18.8 million, on target with my $19 million take. Christopher Nolan’s epic was down only 35% and it’s up to $264 million.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rose from fourth to third with $15.2 million in its sophomore weekend. My prediction? $15.2 million! The acclaimed animated reboot has made $72 million.
As anticipated, Meg 2: The Trench suffered the heftiest drop of the holdovers (57%). Falling from second to fourth, the shark sequel grossed $12.8 million (I said $12 million) to bring its tally to $54 million. On the brighter side, it’s making a killing overseas like its 2018 predecessor.
Finally, The Last Voyage of the Demeter bombed in fifth with $6.5 million. Dubbed the “Dracula on a Boat” movie, audiences weren’t intrigued as it premiered on pace with my $6.4 million projection. With a B- Cinemascore, looking for it to sink even further next weekend.
And that does it for now, folks! Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite listening stream. Until next time…
Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Beginning today… my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in beginning in 2008. In fact, it’s because of that year’s biggest grosser not being included that may have prompted the Academy to expand again in the first place. We’ll get there in just a minute.
We do, of course, know five of the ten and that would be the ones that were nominated. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire dominated the ceremony with ten nods and an impressive eight victories in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Sound Mixing.
David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received the most overall mentions with 13 and took home 3 (Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects).
Our other trio of contenders were Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon (o for 5 in nominations), Gus Van Sant’s Milk (8 nods with Sean Penn winning Actor as well as an Original Screenplay statue), and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (5 nominations with Kate Winslet taking Actress).
The 81st Academy Awards were a rare year when the five Picture hopefuls matched the five filmmakers nominated in Best Director. In other words, there are no clues there for additional BP pics for the purposes of this post.
Yet for the ones that could’ve made the dance in an expanded lineup, we do begin with 2008’s largest moneymaker and that’s Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight. It did manage to score 8 mentions with Heath Ledger winning a posthumous Supporting Actor prize (in addition to Sound Editing gold). The fact that it didn’t break into BP was heavily criticized online and elsewhere. If there had been 10 pics up, that almost certainly wouldn’t have been the case.
I would say the same for Pixar’s Wall-E. When it went to 10 movies in 2009 and 2010, the studio’s Up and Toy Story 3 were in. The robotic adventure was the victor in Animated Feature and was nominated in five more races in Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Like Knight, Wall-E is an easy pick.
For the 8th spot, I’m fairly confident in Doubt. John Patrick Shanley’s drama (based on his Pulitzer Prize winning play) saw four of its actors nominated and was up for Adapted Screenplay. That combo is enough to assume inclusion.
Then it gets complicated for the 9th and 10th slots and there’s a few possibilities to ponder. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler saw Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei up, but a screenplay miss makes me skeptical. Clint Eastwood’s Changeling had three noms (including Angelina Jolie in Actress), but drew mixed reviews. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona, despite taking the Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy, was only nominated for Penelope Cruz’s supporting turn (for which she won). Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges and Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky were both up for Original Screenplay and that race alone. There’s usually one or two screenplay nominees that are only up for that category. Iron Man was a gigantic hit which kicked off the MCU. I doubt the Academy would have honored two comic book adaptations. The Duchess won Costume Design and was nominated for its Art Direction. It also was greeted with a mixed critical response.
All of those titles, to one degree or another, are worthy of consideration for the last two spots. I’m going with an indie selection in Courtney Hunt’s Frozen River which was nominated for Actress (Melissa Leo) and Original Screenplay. Let’s call it 2008’s Winter’s Bone (which would make the 2010 BP ten).
Lastly, I’m naming Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes. Despite it missing noms for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it received a Golden Globe nod in Drama and three Academy mentions for Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Art Direction, and Costume Design. That might have been just enough for #10.
So there you have it! That means my 2008 Best Picture expanded to ten is:
André Øvredal’s The Last Voyage of the Demeter, based on one chapter in Bram Stoker’s Dracula, certainly won’t sail off with a Best Picture nomination. However, there is one category worth considering. The ocean set horror pic is out this weekend with a less than impressive 44% Rotten Tomatoes log. Corey Hawkins, Aisling Franciosi, Liam Cunningham, David Dastmalchian, Javier Botet, and Woody Norman star.
Francis Ford Coppola’s 1992 version of the Stoker source material took the Academy Award for Makeup and Hairstyling. Other monster mashes that competed in that race are Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, Shadow of the Vampire, and The Wolfman (which won).
Demeter is earning some kudos for the makeup work, including for Botet’s Dracula. The Makeup and Hairstyling derby is one that’s mostly immune to critical acclaim. Demeter‘s inclusion should come down to competition. Unfortunately for it, there could be plenty with Dune: Part Two, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Maestro, and Poor Things to mention some. It’s a stretch, but I wouldn’t completely discount this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Gran Turismo was originally supposed to release wide today, but was pushed to August 25th for the grand rollout. There’s a limited release this weekend for the PlayStation game generated pic. It’s based on a true story (hence the longer title Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story) of Turismo player Jann Mardenborough (Archie Mardekwe) who became a professional driver. Neill Blomkamp, whose acclaimed 2009 sci-fi effort District 9 earned a Best Picture nod, directs. The supporting cast includes David Harbour, Orlando Bloom, Darren Barnet, Djimon Hounsou, Gerri Halliwell Horner, and Thomas Kretschmann.
Some reviews are calling this is a crowd pleaser while others are considerably less impressed. This is evidenced by the current 54% Rotten Tomatoes score. Blomkamp might have seen his 14-year-old debut in the BP mix, but it’s been a series of disappointments (Elysium, Chappie, Demonic) since.
That said, there is plenty of praise for Turismo‘s sound team. A nod in that race isn’t out of the question. Yet there’s already a spot reserved for Oppenheimer and Dune: Part Two (as long as it’s out in 2023). This may not simply be on the Academy’s radar at all come early next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Universal Pictures achieved box office success with a Cocaine Bear earlier this year. They’re hoping raunchy talking dogs sell tickets on August 18th when Strays debuts. Josh Greenbaum directs with Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx lending their vocal talents to the headlining hounds. Isla Fisher and Randall Park also provide behind the mic work. Other cast members include Will Forte, Josh Gad, Harvey Guillén, Rob Riggle, Brett Gelman, Jamie Demetriou, Sofia Vergara, and Dennis Quaid.
Originally set for June, the studio would dream of Sausage Party style success. It premiered in the same mid-August frame in 2016 to over $30 million. Party also had considerably more buzz. Comedies have also struggled mightily in the past few years.
I could see this opening similarly to this summer’s No Hard Feelings and that would mean low to mid teens.
The DCEU, via Black Adam and The Flash, has had a rough go at the box office lately and Warner Bros hopes that turns around with Blue Beetle on August 18th. This could be a tall order. Angel Manuel Soto directs with Xolo Maradueña as the title hero. Costars include Adriana Barraza, Damián Alcázar, Raoul Max Trujillo, Susan Sarandon, Elpidia Carrillo, and George Lopez.
Originally slated for HBO Max, the studio changed its plans to a theatrical release. Budgeted at a reported $120 million, Beetle will battle the fact that plenty of moviegoers simply aren’t familiar with the character (and that the DCEU brand is not exactly firing on all cylinders lately).
Projections have varied over the past few weeks ranging from low teens all the way to the low 30s. Anything below $20 million would be considered a disaster. I’ll give it a little credit and say it climbs just over that figure. Unless it manages to generate significantly positive buzz, it could be gone in a flash.
Blue Beetle opening weekend prediction: $23.7 million
The box office bonanza that is Barbenheimer looks to return to the 1-2 positions as waterlogged horror entry The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the only newcomer this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Demeter may struggle to make de-money (I apologize). Besides the rather bad title, I’m not seeing this have much bite with genre fans. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth… distantly.
Barbie should have no trouble maintaining the top spot for the fourth weekend in a row. After scoring the 11th largest third frame in domestic history, my $30M+ take gives it the 11th best fourth outing.
Oppenheimer looks to have the slightest decline of the returnees (perhaps mid 30s) and that could mean a bump from 3rd to 2nd.
That’s because current #2 Meg 2: The Trench seems poised for the heftiest dip. Its B- Cinemascore grade (compared to its predecessor’s B+) could mean a 60% plummet after its solid premiere (more on that below).
The second weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (with its A Cinemascore grade) should be rosier with a mid 40s percent downgrade. If that occurs, the crimefighting reptiles might jump to 3rd with Meg in fourth.
Here’s how I see it all playing out:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million
2. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $19 million
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Meg 2: The Trench
Predicted Gross: $12 million
5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (August 4-6)
I underestimated the giant shark sequel and overestimated the green that the animated reboot would make in respect to Meg 2 and Turtles. As expected, neither came anywhere close to catching Barbie.
The summer smash added another $53 million to its considerable coffers. While that’s under my take of $60.4 million, the $459 domestic cume is astonishing. It also crossed $1 billion worldwide.
Meg 2: The Trench bit off $30 million in second place. That’s well under the $45 million achieved by its predecessor five years back, but ahead of my $24.5 million forecast. The sequel, like the original, will make the bulk of its bucks overseas.
Oppenheimer was third with $29.1 million, right on track with my $29.3 million projection. The acclaimed biopic has amassed $228 million in three weeks.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem generally opened in line with expectations at $28 million from Friday to Sunday and $43 million since its Wednesday bow. I thought it might exceed those numbers and went with $36.1 million and $51.2 million, respectively.
Finally, Haunted Mansion played to empty houses in weekend #2 with a 62% fall in fifth to $9.2 million (I said $11.4 million). The tepid two-week tally is $42 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Keep an eye on the blog this week for my prediction posts on Blue Beetle and Strays and listen to my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform…
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