Acclaimed German filmmaker Wim Wenders could have two bites at the Oscar apple in 2023. His fictional work Perfect Days is the Japanese entry for Best International Feature Film and it stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet.
The other possibility lies in the Documentary Feature race with Anselm. A 3D doc focused on painter and sculptor Anselm Kiefer, it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year. It is scheduled for a limited stateside release on December 8th. Reviews thus far are mostly complimentary with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes meter.
However, I’m not convinced they’re quite sturdy enough. Anselm is a question mark in my view to even make the shortlist for inclusion. Lucky for its director, he has another movie in the mix with better odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After playing the festival circuit at Telluride and Toronto and generating impressive grosses in limited release, The Holdovers expands on November 10th. The dramedy reunites director Alexander Payne with his Sideways lead Paul Giamatti. The supporting cast includes Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa, and Carrie Preston.
With a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score, the pic is hoping to score a handful of nominations come Oscar time. This past weekend, The Holdovers posted an estimated $600,000 on 64 screens for a nearly $10k venue average.
A theater count in the 800 range is expected this frame. If The Holdovers can manage an average of around $4k, that would give it around $3 million and that’s what I’m counting on.
The Holdovers opening weekend expansion prediction: $3 million
Paul B. Preciado’s French documentary Orlando, My Political Biography (out in limited fashion November 10th) explores the title character from a Virginia Woolf novel who changes gender midway through. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit this fall. The Critics Choice documentary nods put it up for Best First Documentary Feature.
With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, there are other docs generating more rapturous acclaim. Yet the subject matter could be tantalizing for awards voters. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t make the Academy’s shortlist of possibilities when revealed next month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Marsh King’s Daughter is based on an acclaimed 2017 thriller by Karen Dionne, but the cinematic adaptation seems to be flying well under the radar. It opens tomorrow with Daisy Ridley of Star Wars fame headlining the cast alongside Ben Mendelsohn, Garrett Hedlund, Caren Pistorius, Brooklyn Prince, and Gil Birmingham. The Illusionist and Divergent director Neil Burger is behind the camera.
STXfilms was originally supposed to distribute Daughter before the company shuttered and now Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions are sharing output duties. Promotion has been scant and reviews are mixed with a 56% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
This might have had better luck going direct to streaming and skipping multiplexes. In addition to the box office challenges it faces, reaction guarantees it’ll be a non-factor on the awards circuit. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Production company Affirm Films is hoping faith-based viewers make a destination trip to Journey to Bethlehem on November 10th. The live-action musical marks the directorial debut of Adam Anders with a cast including Fiona Palomo, Milo Manheim, Lecrae, and Antonio Banderas.
Slated to open on approximately 1800 screens, Bethlehem is a tricky one to project. Pics catering to a Christian audience can certainly rise above expectations. Yet I suspect this one (if it gets solid word-of-mouth) could play steadily throughout the holiday season and maybe not post an overly impressive opening.
Recent Affirm titles include Big George Foreman, Overcomer, and Paul, Apostle of Christ. None of them opened to over $10 million. I’ll project this doesn’t either and it may not make half of that, but we’ll say how it legs out.
Journey to Bethlehem opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
Meg Ryan may have a spot on the rom com Mt. Rushmore with classics like When Harry Met Sally…, Sleepless in Seattle, and You’ve Got Mail. A quarter century plus following those titles, Ryan is back in the genre she’s most known for with What Happens Later on November 3rd. It marks her second feature behind the camera and her first appearance onscreen in eight years. The two-hander finds her stranded at an airport with her ex (David Duchovny).
The Bleecker Street production is slated for just under 1500 screens this weekend. That severely hinders its potential. Frankly, so does the fact that many viewers of a younger age simply aren’t as familiar with the director’s filmography. Originally scheduled for October 13, it was pushed to early November to avoid a certain concert pic from Taylor Swift.
Even hardcore fans wanting to see Ryan’s return to this territory may choose to wait for streaming options. With the limited output, topping $2 million could be an achievement.
What Happens Later opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million
Blogger’s Update (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.
After a series of delays dating back to summer 2022, the MCU’s 33rd adventure arrives November 10th with The Marvels. Nia DaCosta, best known for her 2021 Candyman remake, directs. Captain Marvel Brie Larson leads a cast that includes Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani, Zawe Ashton, Park Seo-joon, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Beginning with Spider-Man: No Way Home, we’ve seen a run of six MCU pics that opened to $100 million or over. It certainly helped that each one of them was a sequel in a well-established sub franchise including Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and Black Panther.
The nine digit premiere streak should end here and the debut may look more like a trilogy of titles from 2021. Black Widow started with $80 million in the summer of that year and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings did $75 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of its Labor Day weekend bow. Finally, Eternals managed $71 million in November.
Two years later, I’m not confident The Marvels even matches those grosses. Other than Captain Marvel and Jackson’s Nick Fury, the other characters are relatively unknown compared to various Avengers counterparts. There’s always the risk of superhero overload and we’ve seen our share of letdowns in the genre in 2023 (The Flash, Blue Beetle, Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Yes, those were all DCU, but the subpar earnings could apply here.
I’m projecting The Marvels will have the lowest MCU beginning since Ant-Man ($57 million) back in 2015. That would be a rather significant letdown for Marvel in their third feature from Phase Five and the third smallest opening overall of the 33 picture series.
The Marvels opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million
For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:
Let’s start with the fact with Mike Schmidt (Josh Hutcherson), the night guard at the now abandoned entertainment center in Five Nights at Freddy’s is just bad at his job. It’s an excuse to sleep, but there’s a purpose. He’s trying to conjure up the circumstances of what happened to his kidnapped brother years ago. Mike believes his visions during the dreams will lead to finding his sibling or at least uncovering who took him. Emma Tammi’s adaptation of the wildly successful video game series that began in 2014 (which I have no familiarity with) might lead to counting sheep as well, especially in the first half. That’s instead of counting on the animatronic animals to provide worthy scares. It doesn’t happen often.
The genealogical drama doesn’t stop at the protagonist’s abduction visions. He also has a much younger sister Abby (Piper Rubio). Their aunt (Mary Stuart Masterson) wants custody for the paycheck. Mike is desperate for employment to keep little sis with him. He reluctantly accepts the graveyard shift at Freddy Fazbear’s Pizza. Matthew Lillard of Scream distinction interviews him for the gig. The long closed pie shop with four singing critters probably would’ve been an awesome experience back in the 1980s. I could imagine Eleven and the Stranger Things gang or a Goonie hanging at it while working with a better script. Freddy’s is mysteriously not torn down. Kindly and pretty policewoman Vanessa (Elizabeth Lail) tells Mike they have a tough time keeping guards on duty. Apparently security during the day is not warranted.
By night 3 of Mike’s gig that he can’t stay alert for, he is forced to bring Abby along. That’s at about the midway point when we already know the house band is capable of wreaking havoc on unwanted visitors. They befriend Abby while Mike is confounded by their existence. At least he’s awake now even if Hutcherson’s performance is missing much of a pulse. I was less groggy too after muddling through the Schmidt family misfortunes for almost an hour. The bear, rabbit, chick, and fox come from Jim Henson’s Creature Shop and they are effective creature designs.
If only the screenplay (cowritten by the game’s creator Scott Cawthorn) allowed them to play more in their venue. We have a promising setting that is underutilized. I know this is massively successful IP with millions of young diehard fans and maybe this will deliver for them. Regular old horror fans unfamiliar with the source material (like me) have to settle for infrequent PG-13 frights. I found myself hungering to see what kind of Reagan era games occurred when kiddie customers were devouring mediocre pizza instead of the overly plotted mechanics served here. That makes it hard to recommend one night in this setting so I just say no.
Sony Pictures will release Freud’s Last Session on December 22nd. It premiered last week at the AFI Fest. Matt Brown directs the adaptation of Mark St. Germain’s play which imagines a fictional meeting between Sigmund Freud (Anthony Hopkins) and C.S. Lewis (Matthew Goode). Discussions on faith and psychology naturally follow.
The two-hander has drawn mixed reviews thus far (not enough for a Rotten Tomatoes score). While the script is being criticized and this will not generate any BP attention, there is the matter of Sir Anthony.
32 years after winning Best Actor for The Silence of the Lambs and three years after taking it again for The Father, the legend is unsurprisingly receiving praise for his work. At one time, I thought his awards viability could be stronger for One Life (which played the fest circuit this fall). However, its release date was recently slated for 2024.
With the so-so reviews, I suspect Hopkins won’t factor into this year’s leading man derby as it’s already stacked with likelier contenders from Bradley Cooper (Maestro) to Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) to Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and more. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a record breaking Halloween opening at the box office, Five Nights at Freddy’s will have no trouble dominating the charts again as November arrives. The only wide release is the expansion of biopic Priscilla from Sofia Coppola. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While it played went well in limited release this weekend, Priscilla probably won’t impress as it goes nationwide. I’m projecting it at the lower end of its range for what could be a fourth or fifth place showing (depending on the second weekend drop for faith-based doc After Death).
Freddy’s is ready to easily be 1st again after its massive start (more on that below). It’s a reasonable assumption that its earnings will be quite front loaded. A mid 60s to even high 60s decline wouldn’t be a surprise, but that would still give it a second frame atop the landscape due to scant competition.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon (following a disappointing sophomore performance) should retain their spots in second and third. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. Priscilla
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
5. After Death
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (October 27-29)
Based on the hugely successful series of video games, Five Nights at Freddy’s obliterated the previous best Halloween weekend of all time. It was held by 2011’s Puss in Boots with $34 million. Freddy’s more than doubled that mark with an astonishing $80 million. That’s good for the third highest horror start in history after It and its sequel. It bested my $68.3 million prediction and that’s all the more impressive considering it premiered simultaneously on Peacock.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, after its own record setting two weeks on top, fell to second with $15.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $14.2 million take as it’s up to $150 million domestically.
Killers of the Flower Moon, despite great reviews and Oscar buzz, fell a troubling 60% in its second outing with $9.3 million. I assumed it would hold up much better at $13.4 million. The subpar ten-day tally (especially considering a $200 million budget) is $40 million.
I mistakenly left After Death out of top five. The documentary from Angel Studios (the company behind the unexpected summer smash Sound of Freedom) was fourth with $5 million.
The Exorcist: Believer rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3.5 million) for $59 million in four weeks.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was sixth with $2.3 million (I went with $2.9 million) for five week earnings of $59 million as well.
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