As I do at the tail end of each year, I’m gifting you some posts recounting what enthralled us on the big screen in the preceding 12 months. There will be five for 2023 and, for the first write-up, I didn’t have to think too hard. This year, audiences across the globe were transfixed by the phenomenon known as “Barbenheimer”.
That would be the combination of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. Both pictures opened on July 21st stateside. The former – Gerwig’s modern take on the Mattel doll and her cinematic universe – drew critical praise and became the biggest hit of the year with $1.4 billion worldwide. The latter – Nolan’s biopic of the man who built the atom bomb – made $954 million worldwide (good for third overall) and proved that three-hour historical biopics can make unforeseen amounts of dough.
Barbie and Oppenheimer will forever be tied together despite their many differences. The similarities? Crowds were excited to see both. Both are primed to vie for Best Picture at the Oscars. Each could see a trifecta of their actors contend for acting prizes. For Barbie – Margot Robbie in Actress, Ryan Gosling in Supporting Actor, and America Ferrera in Supporting Actress. For Oppenheimer – Cillian Murphy in Actor, Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor, and Emily Blunt in Supporting Actress. And in a welcome development, the summer’s two behemoths weren’t sequels.
With the possible exception of Top Gun: Maverick in 2022, Barbenheimer is likely the most notable box office story of the decade and certainly for 2023. My Year Of posts will continue tomorrow!
It’s been a rough cinematic 2023 for DC Studios with flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. Over this Christmas weekend, early numbers indicate that their latest Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may be another entry that opens below expectations. Jason Wan returns to direct his sequel to the 2018 blockbuster with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Costars include Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Randall Park, Dolph Lundgren, Temuera Morrison, Martin Short (!), and Nicole Kidman.
The review embargo lifted on Thursday – the day of its unveiling in multiplexes. That’s usually not a good sign and that proved true with an underwater Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36%. Its predecessor managed 65%.
The 2018 original came up empty-handed in the awards space and didn’t make the 10 picture shortlist for Visual Effects. This sequel popped up on the first 20 contenders for VE. However, when the whittled down list of 10 were revealed Thursday, Lost was nowhere to be found. The fourth DCU offering of the year will share the same number of Academy nods as the first three: none. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Oscar shortlists for the 96th Academy Awards were revealed today for seven feature length categories. We now know the ten finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects and the 15 hopefuls for Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature.
Per usual, there were surprises (though I’d say no complete jaw droppers). In Song, three films make up a third of the contenders (Hi Barbie!). Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Napoleon did about the best they could do while others like Nyad, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and Past Lives missed key races where they were expected to contend for nominations.
Overall I went 63 for 90 in my forecasts. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my new top tens for where I believe things stand in the various competitions!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Shortlist: Beau is Afraid, Ferrari, Golda, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
How I Did: 6/10
Perhaps the biggest unexpected snub was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 missing here (its two predecessors were respectively nominated and shortlisted). I also had Barbie (Bye Barbie!), Nyad, and Priscilla in the mix. In their places are Beau Is Afraid, Ferrari, The Last Voyage of the Demeter (didn’t see that coming), and Society of the Snow. This is probably Maestro‘s race to lose.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. Maestro (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Golda (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Nyad
The Color Purple
Wonka
Best Sound
Shortlist: Barbie, The Creator, Ferrari, The Killer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 8/10
Oppenheimer is clearly the leader. I felt like if Zone made the cut, its chances to make the final quintet are solid. The Creator and Mission: Impossible are listed over my picks of The Color Purple and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Killer (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Society of the Snow
Best Visual Effects
Shortlist: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 8/10
Mission and Napoleon get in over my picks of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and Killers of the Flower Moon. This race is, frankly, a crapshoot ever since we found out Oppenheimer wouldn’t contend. With the Guardians omission in Makeup & Hairstyling, I feel compelled to remove it from 1st place here (though it still be the MCU’s first winner). The Creator? Godzilla? Perhaps. For now I’m rolling with Poor Things atop the leaderboard, but this is a toughie.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS:
1. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Best Original Score
Shortlist: American Fiction, American Symphony, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, Elemental, The Holdovers, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 10/15
Some rather unexpected snubs including Nyad and Past Lives. I also had Carmen, Ferrari, and The Killer up for contention. In their places are American Fiction, American Symphony, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, and Saltburn. Like in Sound, the chances of Oppenheimer being victorious are decent.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Elemental (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (E)
10. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Past Lives
Best Original Song
Shortlist: “Am I Dreaming” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes; “Dance the Night” from Barbie; “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City; “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “High Life” from Flora and Son; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple; “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son; “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives; “Road to Freedom” from Rustin; “Superpower” from The Color Purple; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 10/15
Those three movies making up a third of the hopefuls are Barbie, Flora and Son, and The Color Purple. I incorrectly had both Flora tunes and “Superpower” from Purple out. Same goes for “Am I Dreaming” and “Can’t Catch Me Now”. The quintet that I incorrectly had in were “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (surprised it missed after the Globes nom), “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me (Bye Bruce Springsteen), “For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid, and “This Wish” from Wish (which I had in my top five days ago). It’s key to remember that only two tracks from a picture can make this race. That’s why I have “Dance the Night” outside the top ten since I’m confident “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” are in.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Droppe Out:
“This Wish” from Wish
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“It’s Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady
“A World of Your Own” from Wonka
Best International Feature Film
Shortlist: Amerikatsi (Armenia), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Four Daughters (Tunisia), Godland (Iceland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco), Perfect Days (Japan), The Promised Land (Denmark), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Taste of Things (France), The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), Tótem (Mexico), 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
How I Did: 12/15
Documentaries The Mother of All Lies and Four Daughters are in as well as Amerikatsi. I had About Dry Grasses, The Peasants, and The Settlers. By the way, the miss for The Peasants may not bode well for its Animated Feature chances (where I’ve had it getting nominated). Barring an upset, this is The Zone of Interest‘s category to lose (though an upset isn’t totally out of the question).
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Perfect Days (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tótem (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
About Dry Grasses
The Promised Land
Best Documentary Feature
Shortlist: American Symphony, Apolonia, Apolonia, Beyond Utopia, Bobi Wire: The People’s President, Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
How I Did: 9/15
There’s always unforeseen developments in the Doc derby. My picks of The Deepest Breath, Kokomo City, The Mission, The Mother of All Lies (despite the IFF nod), Orlando, My Political Biography, and The Pigeon Tunnel fell in favor of Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, and To Kill a Tiger. I’d say Beyond Utopia is still the slight favorite, but I’m very curious to see what certain precursors do.
NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)
3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Symphony (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mother of All Lies
The Deepest Breath
Every Body
Keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as we inch closer to Oscar nomination morning!
Seven pieces of the Oscar speculation puzzle become clearer tomorrow when shortlists are submitted in various feature length races. We will learn the final 15 contenders in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, and Original Song. Additionally, the 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects will be revealed.
With history as our guide, I can reveal there will likely be surprises. There’s usually an out of nowhere song or doc or Makeup & Hairstyling hopeful that emerges.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow with my quick take on my picks and analysis. Here is my forecast for those seven shortlists with an alternate selection in each!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Shortlist (10):
Barbie
Golda
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: The Color Purple
Best Sound
Predicted Shortlist (10):
Barbie
The Color Purple
Ferrari
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Shortlist (10):
The Creator
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Barbie
Best Original Score
Predicted Shortlist (15):
Barbie
The Boy and the Heron
Carmen
Elemental
Ferrari
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Origin
Best Original Song
Predicted Shortlist (15):
“Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me
“Camp Isn’t Home” from Theater Camp
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“This Wish” from Wish
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
Migration is the latest animated offering from Illumination and it arrives in theaters this Friday. The comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.
With its review embargo lifted, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is a fair though far from overwhelming 71%. This is Illumination’s 14th big screen effort that began with Despicable Me back in 2010. While the studio’s product usually succeeds in being a box office winner, only Despicable Me 2 in 2013 managed a Best Animated Feature Oscar at the Oscars.
Don’t look for Migration to be the second. Precursors like Critics Choice and the Globes have already ignored it. Illumination does have another 2023 contender in the financial behemoth The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The chances are stronger (if still unlikely) that it makes the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Color Purple has existed for over four decades via book (by Alice Walker), film (Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), and Broadway play (beginning in 2005). At each turn, it’s generated awards attention. The book won a Pulitzer. The first cinematic rendering landed 11 Academy nominations (though it didn’t win any of them). The first iteration of the play also managed 11 Tony nods and a single victory in lead actress while the 2015 revival nabbed four nominations and two trophies (including Cynthia Erivo in lead actress).
On Christmas Day, the screen treatment of the stage musical arrives in theaters. Blitz Bazawule directs with a cast including Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who played Sofia in the ’85 adaptation) are producers.
Given the awards heavy past of the source material, Purple has been seen as a potentially significant Oscar hopeful since the project was announced. The review embargo has lapsed (rather late I must say) with a solid 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.
That said, much of the critical reaction is of the *** variety and not ****. Perhaps the biggest snub of the Golden Globe nominations was this not receiving a mention in Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy). Days later, the Critics Choice nods threw Purple a lifeline when it made their Top 10 features.
Any way you cut it, Purple‘s inclusion in the Oscar BP ten is far from certain. I had it listed at #10 in my latest round of predictions on Sunday. If this manages to make the SAG quintet when their nominations are announced for Best Ensemble, that would be another feather in its cap. Though don’t be surprised at all if it misses the BP cut. Bazawule’s direction is highly unlikely to be mentioned (even Spielberg couldn’t get in that race nearly 40 years back). Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay.
Purple will manage to get other nominations. The most certain is Danielle Brooks for Supporting Actress. For months, I had her listed in 1st to win but I recently switched the top spot to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Brooks is playing the same role Winfrey played and got an Academy nod for. In 1985, Whoopi Goldberg was nominated for Actress as Celie. Fantasia Barrino hopes to replicate that success. It’s doable, but competition is fierce. I had her in 7th place on the outside looking in last weekend. 7th place is also where I had Taraji P. Henson in Supporting Actress as Shug. Margaret Avery was nominated for her portrayal in ’85 though Henson has already missed key precursors like the Globes and Critics Choice.
Finally, there are down the line races where it could pop up. This includes Original Song (“Keep It Movin”), Production Design, and Costume Design. It won’t generate 11 mentions like the Spielberg pic. Four or five is more feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M
With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:
Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.
Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).
Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.
I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.
As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.
I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.
That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.
Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:
1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $42.8 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $31.4 million
3. Migration
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
4. The Color Purple
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
5. The Iron Claw
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
6. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
7. Poor Things
Predicted Gross: $5 million
8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
10. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (December 15-17)
Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.
It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.
The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.
Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.
Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
After a predictably strong run in limited release, Poor Things hopes for a rich box office when it expands nationwide on December 22nd. From director Yorgos Lanthimos in his follow-up to 2018’s The Favourite, the period piece sci-fi black comedy looks to generate numerous Oscar nominations. Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, Christopher Abbott, Jerrod Carmichael, Margaret Qualley, and Kathryn Hunter star.
This past weekend, it entered the top ten (in tenth) on just 82 screens. Its $1.2 million gross scored an impressive $15k per venue and it’s made just over $2 million in two weeks.
With serious awards buzz, this could manage to post a decent wide premiere. On the other hand, competition is fierce with other adult skewing titles like The Iron Claw, The Color Purple, and Ferrari either opening Friday or Christmas Day (Monday).
I’ve held off on doing a forecast for this because I’ve yet to see a verified screen count. When I do, it could alter my thinking. For now I’m setting a figure of $5 million from Friday to Monday, but don’t be surprised if that changes.
Poor Things opening weekend prediction: $5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
Among a crush of new product coming our way this long Christmas weekend, the Indian-Telugu language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire hopes to ignite some interest when it opens December 22nd. Clocking in at 175 minutes, Prashanth Neel directs with a cast including Prabhas, Prithviraj Sukumaran, Shruti Hassan, and Jagapathi Babu.
For comps, you don’t have to look back far. September’s Jawan is from a similar genre and is nearly the same length (169 minutes). It opened in early September to $6.1 million on just over 800 screens (the reported number that Ceasefire will see). That was over a traditional three-day weekend, but this arrives on the extended holiday frame with Christmas falling on a Monday.
While this is expected to make the vast bulk of its money overseas, this could have a similar start stateside and perhaps a bit more due to the holiday. Yet the marketplace is so crowded that this may struggle to reach what Jawan did in three days.
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasfire opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
The Boys in the Boat tells the tale of the American crew team during the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin and it wades into theaters on Christmas Day. George Clooney directs the true life sports drama with a cast including Callum Turner, Joel Edgerton, Jack Mulhern, Peter Guinness, Hadley Robinson, and James Wolk.
This is Clooney’s first theatrical directorial effort since the 2017 bomb Suburbicon (streaming pics The Midnight Sky and The Tender Bar followed). Boat does not have critics on its side with a 45% Rotten Tomatoes score.
While this will attempt to get adult moviegoers out during the holiday season, the weak reaction and heavy competition (The Iron Claw, The Color Purple, Ferrari) should sink this. Since its opening on December 25th (a Monday in 2023), my estimate is only for that day. I’m barely giving it nine figures for that premiere date.
The Boys in the Boat opening day prediction: $1.1 million (Monday estimate only)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 