Tag: movie

June 13-15 Box Office Predictions

A live-action remake of an animated hit looks to replace another live-action remake of an animated hit for box office supremacy this weekend as How to Train Your Dragon debuts. We also have the rom com Materialists entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers at these links:

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction
Materialists Box Office Prediction

Dragon, which updates DreamWorks Animation’s 2010 original, is expected to have a fiery start. At best, it could approach $100 million. I’m playing it a little safe and projecting mid 80s for what would easily be a franchise best kickoff after three previous animated offerings.

Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans could reach $10M+ and I’ve got it just over that for third place. It could debut anywhere between 3-5 as it’ll hope to leg out well in subsequent weekends based on solid reviews.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will relinquish its crown after three weeks atop the charts. The Dragon competition could mean a 50% range drop.

Ballerina didn’t impress in its opening (more on that below) and I’m guesstimating a mid to high 50s slide in its sophomore frame. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning should remain in the high five.

Here’s how I envision it playing out:

1. How to Train Your Dragon

Predicted Gross: $84.3 million

2. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Materialists

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

4. Ballerina

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

Lilo & Stitch once again held bragging rights as the family tale held in first with $32.3 million, in line with my $31.9 million call. The Mouse House hit has amassed $335 million after three weeks.

That means my prediction that John Wick spinoff Ballerina would be #1 was off base. The action extravaganza with Ana de Armas stalled in second with $24.5 million, well under my $36.8 million take. It’s a rare financial misstep for a series that had yet to experience such a thing.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was third with $14.8 million, nearly matching my $15 million forecast as Tom Cruise’s eighth appearance as Ethan Hunt has made $149 million after its third outing.

Karate Kid: Legends was fourth with $8.5 million. My guess? $8.5 million! The 58% decline in its second weekend means the sequel has kicked up an unimpressive $35 million.

Final Destination Bloodlines rounded out the top five with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The four-week tally is $123 million.

That’s because I had Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme performing better. The auteur’s latest was sixth at $6.2 million. I went higher for the national expansion with $8.7 million. Counting its coastal release the previous weekend, Scheme stands at $7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 23-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.

Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Box Office Prediction
The Last Rodeo Box Office Prediction
Friendship Box Office Prediction

Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.

Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.

The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.

As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.

And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

3. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

5. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $14 million

6. The Last Rodeo

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

7. Friendship

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)

8. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (May 16-18)

As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.

The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.

Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.

The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.

Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.

Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.

Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.

Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).

Here’s how I have that high five playing out:

1. Thunderbolts*

Predicted Gross: $79.3 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $34 million

3. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.

The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.

The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.

New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21st Edition

A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.

Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).

Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.

You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).

This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.

With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Wicked: For Good

5. Sinners

6. The Rivals of Amziah King

7. Hamnet

8. Jay Kelly

9. The Life of Chuck

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another

12. Frankenstein

13. Bugonia

14. Deliver Me from Nowhere

15. The Smashing Machine

16. No Other Choice

17. The Ballad of a Small Player

18. Michael

19. Die, My Love

20. Highest 2 Lowest

21. Kiss of the Spider Woman

22. F1

23. Is This Thing On?

24. Ann Lee

25. Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere

14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead

15. Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

12. Emily Watson, Hamnet

13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

14. Nia Long, Michael

15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.

April 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Sinners, which reunites Michael B. Jordan with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler, looks for a strong Easter weekend showing at multiplexes. Seeking to challenge A Minecraft Movie for the top spot, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the vampire flick here:

Sinners Box Office Prediction

It could be a real photo finish for the #1 slot. Sinners is holding at a remarkable 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that should help build buzz. My mid 40s projection might equal box office supremacy.

Yet I have Minecraft barely managing bragging rights with a low 40s percent ease for a third week in first. The separation is less than $1.5 million between the leaders.

Holdovers in their sophomore frames should populate the rest of the top five via The King of Kings, The Amateur, and Warfare.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $46.1 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

3. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Amateur

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Warfare

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (April 11-13)

A Minecraft Movie mastered the charts once again with $78.5 million, on pace with my $77.9 million call. The video game based smash has amassed $278 million in just two weeks of release.

Five newcomers filled the next spots with animated The King of Kings from Angel Studios outpacing its competitors. With an A+ Cinemascore, it was runner-up with $19.3 million. That’s falling shy of my $21.4 million estimate, but it’s still a terrific result.

The Amateur with Rami Malek was third with $14.8 million. That’s at the top of the anticipated range for the spy thriller and outdoes my $11.9 million prediction.

Warfare from Alex Garland and Iraq War vet Ray Mendoza managed fourth with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.5 million projection.

Blumhouse thriller Drop was fifth with a meh $7.3 million. I was close at $7.6 million. The B Cinemascore is decent for its genre though I’d look for this to fade quickly.

Finally, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 took sixth with $6 million, I was a tad lower at $5.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 11-13 Box Office Predictions

After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction
The Amateur Box Office Prediction
Drop Box Office Prediction
Warfare Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.

A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.

After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. The Amateur

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

4. Warfare

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Drop

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.

A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.

Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.

I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 28-30 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction
Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction
The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.

That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Death of a Unicorn

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. The Woman in the Yard

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…

They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.

As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.

Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.

Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.

Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.

Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Jack Quaid is unconventional hero Novocaine, Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender carry the romantic thriller Black Bag from Steven Soderbergh, and Daffy Duck and Porky Pig headline The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the new trio here:

Novocaine Box Office Prediction
Black Bag Box Office Prediction
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie Box Office Prediction

It could be a battle for the #1 spot. I’m projecting no feature will top $10 million though I believe Novocaine has the best shot and that it manages first place with only mild bragging rights.

I foresee Mickey 17 suffering a significant drop in its sophomore frame after a so-so start (more on that below). A mid to high 50s plummet would put it in second or maybe even third.

Black Bag, generating impressive reviews, could outdo my third place number but the adult drama should face trouble bringing in a younger crowd.

Speaking of younger crowds, Looney Tunes hopes to cash in on its well-known animated stars. Yet this seems to be severely under marketed and I have it in fifth behind Captain America: Brave New World.

Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:

1. Novocaine

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

2. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

3. Black Bag

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 7-9)

Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 ended Captain America‘s three-week #1 reign with $19 million. Given the reported price tag of around $120 million, that’s not a result to brag about. However, the sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson did surpass my $17.9 million prediction.

Captain America: Brave New World fell to second with $8.3 million. I was on target at $8.4 million. The MCU adventure now stands at $176 million.

Last Breath was third with $4 million, a bit lower than my $4.6 million forecast for the survival flick. The two-week take is $14 million.

The Monkey was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $3.4 million) for $31 million after three weeks.

Paddington in Peru rounded out the top five at $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the leading quintet. The sequel’s four-week gross is $36 million.

Finally, Rule Breakers from Angel Studios stumbled in ninth with a paltry $1.5 million. I was far more generous at $3.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Waltzing with Brando

An unexpected development when the Academy released their shortlists in various races a few days back was Marlon Brando popping up in contention. And that’s not just because the legendary and quirky actor has been dead for over 20 years.

Waltzing with Brando is directed by Bill Fishman with Billy Zane playing Brando in the late 60s and early 70s when he was making The Godfather and Last Tango in Paris. He was also building an island in Tahiti and that’s where the picture focuses with Napoleon Dynamite‘s Jon Heder as his beleaguered architect. Costars include Richard Dreyfuss, Camille Razat, Tia Carrere, and James Jagger (son of Mick).

Brando premiered at the Torino Film Festival late last month. It doesn’t even have a Rotten Tomatoes page yet. Yet it surprisingly made the ten finalists in the Makeup & Hairstyling race along with anticipated heavy hitters like The Substance, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked. The fact that it reached the 10 hopefuls makes you naturally wonder if it could end up in the ultimate contending quintet. The trailer does indicate that the artists succeed in making Zane look like Brando. I’m not projecting it will, but it certainly has a 10% shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Conclave Box Office Prediction

Academy hopeful Conclave materializes in theaters on October 25th. Based on the Robert Harris novel, Ralph Fiennes headlines the thriller as a cardinal in charge of selecting the new Pope. Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Sergio Castellitto, Isabella Rossellini, and Lucien Msamati costar. Edward Berger, following up his nine-time Oscar nominee All Quiet on the Western Front from 2022, directs.

With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic, Conclave is expected to vie for multiple awards races including Best Picture. That buzz could assist in bringing in an adult audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts out in the mid to possibly high single digits as it hopes for meager declines in later weekends. This forecast could change based on its final released screen count.

Conclave opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million

For my Venom: The Last Dance prediction, click here:

Venom: The Last Dance Box Office Prediction