Tag: Mother Mary

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 24th Edition

We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.

Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.

On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.

Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:

  • The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
  • Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
  • The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
  • Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.

You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)

18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)

22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)

24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

F1

The Life of Chuck

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)

14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)

13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)

7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)

10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All That’s Left of You

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Come See Me in the Good Light

Architection

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wolf Man

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Sentimental Value

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)

9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

TBD from Zootopia 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mickey 17

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Marty Supreme

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

3 Nominations

Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.

Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)

23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)

24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)

13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ella McKay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)

3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timestamp

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Frankenstein

A House of Dynamite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Mother Mary

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family

3 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 27th Edition

Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.

There are changes to discuss:

  1. In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
  2. In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
  3. In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
  4. A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)

16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)

17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)

18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)

21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)

22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)

13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Alabama Solution

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mother Mary

“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein

6 Nominations

After the Hunt

5 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 13th Edition

While there’s not a whole lot of movement with my Oscar predictions in the past ten days, there are notable changes in Actress and Supporting Actress.

In Actress, Amanda Seyfried’s work in Ann Lee surpasses Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. A switch-up in Supporting Actress now has Sentimental Value generating 10 nominations with Inga Ibsfotter Lilleass in and Angelina LookingGlass (The Rivals of Amziah King) out.

Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia is bumped to the top spot in Adapted Screenplay over Hamnet and you can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 12) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rental Family (PR: 20) (+5)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Ann Lee (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (+1)

23. F1 (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (E)

12. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rental Family (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 14) (E)

15. Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Hamnet (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (E)

12. Late Fame (PR: 12) (E)

13. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (E)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+3)

5. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Seeds (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Timestamp (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Six Billion Dollar Man

The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

9. F1 (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. F1 (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+2)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bugonia (PR: 2) (-2)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (2nd song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Relentless” from Diane Warren Relentless (PR: 7) (-1)

9. TBD from Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Superman (PR: 10) (+1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+2)

8. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sinners

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

14 Nomnations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

8 Nominations

After the Hunt, Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Bugonia

5 Nominations

Hamnet

4 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominatons

Kiss of the Spider Woman, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Ann Lee, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, F1, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine. Superman

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. After the Hunt

3. Jay Kelly

4. Sinners

5. Marty Supreme

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident

7. Sorry, Baby

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. The Secret Agent

10. Ann Lee

11. Rental Family

12. Ella McCay

13. Is This Thing On?

14. Nouvelle Vague

15. A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hamnet

2. Bugonia

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. One Battle After Another

5. No Other Choice

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein

7. Wicked: For Good

8. The Life of Chuck

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Train Dreams

11. Die, My Love

12. Late Fame

13. Highest 2 Lowest

14. Hedda

15. The Smashing Machine

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. It Was Just an Accident

3. The Secret Agent

4. No Other Choice

5. The President’s Cake

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirát

7. Sound of Falling

8. Left-Handed Girl

9. Nouvelle Vague

10. The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2

2. Arco

3. Elio

4. Scarlet

5. In Your Dreams

Other Possibilities:

6. Animal Farm

7. A Magnificent Life

8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

9. KPop Demon Hunters

10. Ne Zha 2

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. Seeds

3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

4. Cutting Through Rocks

5. Deaf President Now!

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

10. The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. After the Hunt

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Sentimental Value

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly

7. Marty Supreme

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Frankenstein

3. Bugonia

4. Marty Supreme

5. The Rivals of Amziah King

Other Possibilities:

6. F1

7. Sentimental Value

8. Nouvelle Vague

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

10. Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

5. Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Lee

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8. Mother Mary

9. Snow White

10. One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Bugonia

5. F1

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt

7. Wicked: For Good

8. One Battle After Another

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. The Smashing Machine

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later

7. Bugonia

8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Wolf Man

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Bugonia

3. After the Hunt

4. Frankenstein

5. Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another

7. F1

8. Sentimental Value

9. The Rivals of Amziah King

10. Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5. TBD from Zootopia 2

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

10. TBD from Mother Mary

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia

7. One Battle After Another

8. Marty Supreme

9. The Phoenician Scheme

10. Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1

2. Sinners

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Warfare

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

9. Frankenstein

10. Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Superman

4. Frankenstein

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

7. F1

8. How to Train Your Dragon

9. Tron: Ares

10. Sinners

Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

After the Hunt

7 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

6 Nominatons

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominatons

F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare

98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 22nd Edition

As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.

While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.

I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.

The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)

17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)

24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sound of Falling

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)

12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)

Best Actress

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)

14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)

11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)

14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 27, 2024

The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).

The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.

While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.

Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)

20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)

22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)

14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Leigh Gill, Blitz

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 19th, 2024

My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.

Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.

I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.

In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.

I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)

15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)

17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)

18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)

19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Megalopolis

The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Hard Truths

SNL 1975

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)

15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)

Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)

Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)

12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)

14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Franz Rogowski, Bird

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Wicked

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Wang, Dídi

Alex Garland, Civil War

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Conclave

4. Sing Sing

5. The End

6. Queer

7. The Fire Inside

8. Bird

9. Kinds of Kindness

10. Dídi

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux

12. The Apprentice

13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

15. Civil War

16. Maria

17. Megalopolis

18. The Piano Lesson

19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

20. A Real Pain

21. Here

22. The Nickel Boys

23. Hard Truths

24. Wicked

25. Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

12. Sean Wang, Dídi

13. Alex Garland, Civil War

14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

5. Tilda Swinton, The End

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

13. Zendaya, Challengers

14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

4. Daniel Craig, Queer

5. André Holland, The Actor

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

7. George MacKay, The End

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Joan Chen, Dídi

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

4. Lesley Manville, Queer

5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

8. Drew Starkey, Queer

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

11. John Lithgow, Conclave

12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!