Columbia Pictures hopes audiences are craving new superhero action when Kraven the Hunter hits theaters on December 13th. This is the latest entry in the Sony Spider-Man Universe which has found success with the Venom pics and failure with Morbius and Madame Web. Aaron Taylor-Johnson stars in the title role spawned from the Marvel Comic with Ariana DeBose, Fred Hechinger, Alessandro Nivola, Christopher Abbott, and Russell Crowe offering support.
This has had a lengthy road to the multiplex. Hunter is on its fourth release date as it was originally slated for nearly two years ago. The first trailer came out in June 2023. In April of 2022, Morbius rolled out to a $39 million showing before cratering in weekend #2. Madame Web had a six-day rollout over President’s Day weekend and took in only $25 million for that time period.
I don’t think Kraven approaches that Morbius figure and it may fall just below Web‘s $15 million Friday to Sunday from a few months back.
Kraven the Hunter opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million
For my The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim prediction, click here:
Tom Hardy and his title character alter ego are back for the third and allegedly final time when Venom: The Last Dance hits multiplexes this weekend. The only sub franchise in the Spider-Man Universe doing brisk business and producing sequels (sorry Morbius and Madame Web), Kelly Marcel directs. The supporting cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, and Stephen Graham.
Critics haven’t been overly kind to Hardy and company. Part 1 from 2018 managed only 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 35 on Metacritic. 2021 follow-up Venom: Let There Be Carnage fared better with 57% on RT and a 49 Metacritic. Dance is currently falling between those numbers with a 41% Tomato meter and 42 on MC.
Even though Hardy gives it his bonkers all in this series, don’t put money down on a Best Actor nomination unless you plan to lose. As I wrote three years ago with Carnage, Visual Effects is really the only awards play. Neither of Dance‘s predecessors nabbed a nod in VE and I wouldn’t expect this one to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Tom Hardy is back in the dual roles of Eddie Brock and his sadistic otherworldly symbiote on October 25th with Venom: The Last Dance. The third entry in the franchise that began in 2018, Dance marks the directorial debut of Kelly Marcel. She co-wrote the original and solely penned the 2021 sequel Venom: Let There Be Carnage. The supporting cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, and Stephen Graham.
Six years back, Venom exceeded expectations with an $80 million opening weekend and $213 million total domestically. Three years later, forecasters assumed Carnage wouldn’t match up due to COVID complications. That turned out to be incorrect as the sequel amassed $90 million out of the gate. Its final stateside gross (rather remarkably) was also $213 million.
Bottom line: don’t underestimate this subsection of the Spider-Man Universe franchise. While Morbius and Madame Web struggled for eyeballs, I envision this premiering similarly to its predecessors. It may not match what came before, but low to mid 60s seems doable.
Venom: The Last Dance opening weekend prediction: $62.3 million
Dakota Johnson headlines as the title character in Madame Web, Sony’s fourth feature in their Spider-Man Universe on February 14th. The studio is hoping its grosses are closer to Venom and its sequel than Morbius. S.J. Clarkson directs with a supporting cast including Sydney Sweeney (hot off Anyone but You), Celeste O’Connor, Isabela Merced, and Tahar Rahim.
Ms. Johnson is no stranger to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend frame considering the Fifty Shades trilogy. Web will attempt to bring in a female contingent, but also a sizable male crowd craving some comic book action.
Debuting on Wednesday, my forecast includes the Friday to Monday long weekend projection along with its two extra days. A best case scenario might be in the $35-40 million neighborhood for the six-day total. I’m skeptical it gets that high. A low to mid 20s start for the four-day and high 20s to low 30s range over the longer haul sounds likelier.
Madame Web opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my Bob Marley: One Love prediction, click here:
There are some Matrix adjacent fight scenes in Morbius that might have you thinking it should be called Morpheus. They’re nowhere near that level in quality and some of them are such a CG mess that you can’t tell what’s happening. Should our hero and villain bite the red artery or suck the blue vein? Despite its connective tissue to Sony’s Spider-Man Universe (meaning the web slinger and Venom), it’s hard to really care.
Dr. Michael Morbius (Jared Leto) is a world renowned expert in blood disorders. The experience is personal as he has one and makes it his life work to cure himself and others. His childhood friend Milo (Matt Smith) suffers from the same disease and has the money to bankroll Doc Mo’s research. A Costa Rican excursion results in the acquisition of vampire bats. Perhaps some genetic splicing will do the trick!
This is when Morbius is blessed and cursed with the batty sense. He feels better than ever (and looks jacked), but has to feast to keep the strength up. His desire to go full Dracula prevents him from offering the cure to Milo. That puts a strain on their friendship causing Milo to go full overacting bad guy.
While our title character tries to get by on artificial blood, many of the visual effects look pretty fake. There’s no real development of the supporting characters. This includes Adria Arjona as Morbius’s colleague/love interest, Jared Harris as his father figure and medical mentor, and Tyrese Gibson and Al Madrigal as detectives tracking the suckers. Maybe their time was cut. Maybe the filmmakers (with Daniel Espinosa in the director’s seat) are saving some for hoped for sequels. Tyrese is apparently signed for a three-picture deal which explains his curiously fast appearance.
In the first half, Morbius is a passable enough monster mash. Maybe even a little quaint as it sort of feels like a late 90s genre piece before most comic book movies came with $200 million budgets. I’m not sure I buy Leto as a brilliant physician turning down Nobel prizes, but he doesn’t embarrass himself. This sputters as the effects render it increasingly incomprehensible.
By the time it drops in Spidey references in the mid credits sequences, it’s gotten desperate. In this Spider-Verse, Morbius doesn’t reach the specific heights of the venomous creatures preceding it.
It’s likely to be a top heavy family friendly box office chart this weekend as DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys makes a play for the #1 spot. The well-reviewed action comedy could find itself in a battle with the second weekend of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (after a lackluster start) and the third frame of Sonic the Hedgehog 2. The adults have fresh product to choose from as well. There’s the Viking epic The Northman from director Robert Eggers and Nicolas Cage headlining the meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. My detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies can be accessed here:
Considering Beasts easily had a Wizarding World franchise low opening (more on that below), even a mid teens start for The Bad Guys could mean it’ll manage to nab first place. If Sonic fell nearly 60% in its sophomore frame, I’m saying Beasts plummets in the mid 60s and it could be a close contest for second between the two holdovers.
The Northman and Talent should hold the four and spots and maybe not in that order. That’s how I have it, however, with Northman just surpassing double digits and Talent falling just under. Both features have solid critical support and could overperform, but I’m being cautious with each.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million
4. The Northman
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (April 15-17)
It was an Easter to forget for Warner Bros as Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore remained a secret to many. The third entry in the series took in a lowly $42.1 million, below my $48.1 million projection. That’s about $20 million under 2018 predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald and it genuinely brings into question whether the studio will move forward with planned fourth and fifth installments.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 dropped to second with $29.3 million and a larger than anticipated 59% drop. I was more generous at $35.8 million. The video game based sequel is up to a nevertheless impressive $118 million after 10 days.
The Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum rom com The Lost City was third with $6.2 million, on target with my $6.3 million take. Total is $78 million.
Everything Everywhere All at Once increased its screen count by nearly 1000 venues and boasted a 2% increase in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $5.5 million). The potential awards contender has made $17 million.
Mark Wahlberg’s faith-based and fact based drama Father Stu opened in fifth with a muted $5.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $7.7 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s on pace with my respective takes of $5.7 million and $8.5 million.
Morbius was sixth with $4.7 million, a tad ahead of my $4.3 million prediction for $65 million overall.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s Ambulance continued to stall with $4 million (I went with $4.5 million) for a two-week tally of only $15 million.
**Blogger’s Note (04/13): Updated to include Everything Everywhere All at Once in the top five after finding out it is expanding to approximately 2000 screens from its current 1250
Warner Bros is hoping for good returns from a potentially fading franchise as Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore debuts this Easter weekend. We also have the Mark Wahlberg led faith-based drama Father Stu as it hopes to capitalize on the holiday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
I have Dumbledore conjuring up about $15 million less than 2018 predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald. The gross just north of $50 million should be enough to nab it the #1 slot with Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (after a terrific start) sliding to second. The video game adapted sequel may lose around half its audience.
Father Stu is a bit of a head scratcher. It could over perform. With a Wednesday premiere, my mid single digits Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in fourth just behind The Lost City.
Ambulance and Morbius, both struggling, might battle it out for the five spot. And with that, my take on the top 7:
1. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $48.1 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $35.8 million
3. The Lost City
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
4. Father Stu
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $8.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
6. Ambulance
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
7. Morbius
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (April 8-10)
Paramount had plenty to celebrate as Sonic the Hedgehog 2 posted the high score with a better than anticipated $72.1 million. That’s nearly $10 million ahead of my $62.5 million prediction. You can bet a third installment is already being planned as this grossed more from Friday to Sunday than the 2020 original took in during the long President’s Day weekend.
Morbius was second with a steep 74% tumble in its sophomore outing with $10.2 million, a bit shy of my $11.2 million projection. The vampire tale is not bringing in new blood after a weak beginning.
The Lost City was third with $9 million (I said $8 million) and the Sandra Bullock comedy stands at $68 million with $100 million in its sights.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s action flick Ambulance stalled in fourth with only $8.6 million, well below my generous $13.7 million estimate. The Michael Bay directed enterprise (which earned decent reviews) couldn’t find a crowd as moviegoers may simply wait until streaming.
The Batman made $6.4 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The grand tally is $358 million.
Finally, the critically heralded Everything Everywhere All at Once was sixth with $6 million. While not reaching my guesstimate of $8.4 million, the trippy sci-fi pic had the second best per theater average on its 1200+ screens.
Video game based sequel Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Michael Bay’s action thriller Ambulance with Jake Gyllenhaal, and critically hailed sci-fi comedy Everything Everywhere All at Once all debut this Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Sonic should have no trouble hitting #1 and I have it scoring in the high 50s to low 60s (about the same as its 2020 predecessor). While there is no mystery for what will be on top, the number two slot could get interesting.
Morbius had a ho-hum start (especially for its genre) and I suspect its weak C+ Cinemascore could mean a sophomore drop between 65-70%. If that occurs, Ambulance should manage a runner-up start.
The real wild card might be Everything, which has had sizzling per theater averages in limited release. I’ve got it just under double digits for fourth, but it could over perform.
The Lost City should fall from 2nd to 5th with the newbies being ushered in. Here’s how I see it breaking down:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $62.5 million
2. Ambulance
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
3. Morbius
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. The Lost City
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (April 1-3)
It might be the third best premiere of 2021, but the $39 million earned by Morbius is far from impressive. The Jared Leto vampiric superhero tale (in which most of the reviews said it kinda sucked) came in under my $45.8 million estimate. As mentioned, I look for it to fade quickly.
The Lost City fell to second with $14.7 million. For a pic of its genre, the Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum adventure comedy’s 52% dip is a little high. I projected $16.4 million. It’s made $54 million in ten days.
The Batman was third with $11 million compared to my $12 million take and the DC juggernaut is up to $349 million.
Uncharted was fourth with $3.6 million (I said $3.1 million) for $138 million overall.
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 was fifth with $1.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as the tally is $29 million.
Finally, RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt tumbled 83% for $1.6 million in sixth. Total is $11 million.
Michael Bay is hoping that action fans will transform Ambulance into a hit when it debuts April 8th. Jake Gyllenhaal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Eiza Gonzalez headline the modestly $40 million budgeted hostage thriller (it’s about one-sixth the cost of Bay’s last Transformers pic).
Originally slated for February before being pushed back to its current slot, reviews are decent with a 74% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Based on a 2005 Danish film, the best case scenario might be a $20 million start. It could also stall in the $10 million range.
Lower teens seems more likely and that could put it in position for a number two or three debut behind Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Morbius (depending on how far it plummets in the sophomore frame).
Ambulance opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million
For my Sonic the Hedgehog 2 prediction, click here:
Jared Leto has an Oscar for his supporting work in 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club. That film won another trophy for Makeup and Hairstyling. Three years later, Leto’s turn as The Joker in Suicide Squad contributed to a victory in that same category. Last weekend, House of Gucci (featuring a much ballyhooed turn from Leto) lost the Makeup derby to The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Why am I bringing this up?
Well, it’s an excuse for Morbius and Oscar to appear as words together in a post. The Sony/Marvel production (which casts Leto as the vampire antihero) is finally making its way to theaters on Friday after numerous COVID delays. There’s been rumors that it’s not of the highest quality and the lapsed review embargo seems to prove that. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a mere 19% at time of publication.
That said, some of this genre fare can still materialize in Visual Effects or Makeup and Hairstyling (like Suicide Squad). I would say Morbius has a better chance at multiple Razzie nominations than any from the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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